Remember all the offseason angst about Ober being slotted at No. 6? And how a lot of us said, he'll get a chance when injuries arise?
I think the Twins showed this year how they would like to approach their rotation. Start with six guys with at least some level off success, so that when you have an early season injury, you won't have to immediately dip into your AAA guys.
In most years, you'll also use your No. 7, 8, 9 and more. This year they've had amazing health, only using eight starters (plus a game when DeLeon was an opener), so there hasn't been as much dipping into AAA as usual, but that makes this year the exception.
At this point, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack are four of those six. I don't think the Twins see Varland as one of those. He well may be their No. 7, good enough to assume that they'll use him, but not good enough to want to have to count on him.
So they'll sign or trade for two. First up is offering Gray the QO, assuming he'll decline. I'd love to sign him to several years, but he's got Cincinnati written all over him. Past history there, Nashville native, gobs of young talent and little financial commitment.
At this point, and assuming he keeps rolling, I seriously consider offering Maeda the QO. If you don't, 2 years at $20M isn't going to get it done to sign him. He's going to get two or maybe three years if he wants it. So offer him the $20M QO. Or perhaps $17M with a $3M team option for 2025 at $15M. That guarantees him the $20M, but could turn into 2/$35M, which is probably richer than he can get.
And then still sign or trade for someone else.