IndianaTwin

With Texas beating Seattle, things are looking clearer. With one game remaining and three tomorrow, here's a summary of the 16 remaining permutations:

And now that we have Tampa Bay 7, Toronto 5, in 10 innings, we are down to 32 permutations: Of note is that, as of now, Toronto is now the most likely Twins opponent. I will update later in the evening.

Going into today, here's what the 64 permutations of playoff scenarios look like, with three games today and three tomorrow in play.

Pagan with the rare save-a-game-one-day-and-start-the-next opportunity.

Yep. Since he is going today, the Astros can’t use Verlander until Game 3, unless he goes on short rest. Same with Seattle and Castillo.

Correct. They lose two-way ties to both Houston and Texas, but win a three-team tie.

No. If Seattle sweeps the Rangers, they would each have 89 wins. However, both Toronto and Houston have the ability to reach 90 wins or more. If that happens, Houston would win the West (2 seed), Toronto would have the second Wild Card (5 seed), and Texas would have the tie breaker over Seattle for the third Wild Card (6 seed).

As for the Twins opponent, Houston went from a 40 percent chance of being the sixth seed to a 45 percent chance over the course of the day. Toronto fell from 29 percent to 25. Seattle fell from 27 to 19 percent, and Texas increased from 4 to 11. Toronto clinches a playoff spot with a win or a Seattle loss. Texas and Houston also clinch with a win.

And Seattle stayed alive in the AL West race with a win over Texas, leaving us with 64 permutations: The biggest winner for the day was Houston, which went from a 73 percent likelihood of making the playoffs to 81 percent. With its win, Toronto went from 92 to 95 percent. Despite its win, Seattle became less likely to qualify, since Houston's and Toronto's wins hurt them more than their own win helped them. And Texas went from a near-certainty at 98 percent to a still very-likely 91 percent.

And following the Houston win over Arizona, we're down to 128 permutations on seven remaining games:

Following the Toronto win, here is the permutation summary for the AL with eight significant games remaining:

I was eating chicken before it even started. 😃

Of note, ChiSox lose, meaning they need to take both remaining games against San Diego to avoid a 100-loss season. Let's go, Padres!

Should we over-react to one game in Colorado and push for Luplow to make the roster?

With Toronto having defeated Tampa Bay, there are still 256 permutations of results from the three series that affect AL seeding. Here's the percentages on each combination of seedings:

It's being reported that ESPN has updated the schedule even further for Tuesday. Their search function reports (all times Eastern): ABC at 2 p.m. ESPN at 4:30 and 7:30 p.m. ESPN 2 at 7 p.m. Again, there may be more tinkering, but it looks like they are accommodating having Eastern and Central locations.

With the Twins playing in Colorado, here’s a tidbit I read today. Did you know that in the olden days, Cowboys would hang their lanterns on their seat when they were riding at night? It was an early form of saddle light navigation.

There are 512 permutations on the three three-game series that affect the AL's seeding. In some working through the tiebreakers, if all games were coin flips, the likelihood of seedings appear to be these: That was my work on a spreadsheet. One of the formulas comes out as this, however, so I'm not going to bet my life on scoring 100 percent! It was fun giving it a whirl, however. =IF(BA490=91,"TOR",IF(AX490=90,"Tex",IF(AY490=90,"Hou",IF(AZ490=90,"Tor",IF(AND(BB490=1,AW490=89),"Sea",IF(AND(BB490=1,AY490=89),"Hou",IF(AND(BB490=1,AZ490=89),"Tor",IF(AND(BB490=3,AY490=0),"Tex",IF(AND(BB490=3,AW490=0),"Hou",IF(AND(BB490=2,AY490=89,AZ490=89),"Hou",IF(AND(BB490=2,AW490=89,AZ490=89),"Sea",IF(AND(BB490,AX490=89,AY490=89),"Hou",IF(AND(BB490=2,AW490=89,AX490=89),"Tex",IF(AND(BC490=1,AZ490=88),"Tor",IF(BC490=3,"Sea",IF(AW490=AZ490,"Sea","Hou"))))))))))))))))

An earlier version had significantly more overlap with the Fathead. The balancing act I'm working with is trying to get as much card space while also not making it wider than necessary. I've not cut the top and bottom pieces yet, so I'll be able to play with the amount of overlap (or lack thereof) when doing the installation.

Hmm. I do have a couple Homer Hankies as well. I'll have to think about those.

I do have enough room remaining on the wall for some additional items, though I haven't decided what will go there yet. I do have space between a window and the corner of the room next to these where I may go with a shelf and the Wheaties boxes I have from 1987 and 1991. I also have a nice picture of Oliva that I took at a spring training in the mid-90s.

Regretfully, a few things have come into focus. Thankfully, that makes this shorter. Specifically... The East is settled. The Twins are locked in to the 3 seed. But here goes: Current standings: Baltimore (100-59), Tampa Bay (97-62), Texas (89-70), Toronto (88-71), Houston (87-72), Seattle (86-73), Minnesota (85-74) Tiebreaker procedure: If there is a three (or more)-way tie that involves the division leader and wild card position(s), the division leader tiebreaker will be resolved first. Then, remaining ties will be broken as needed to determine wild card berths and seeds. Magic numbers/seed scenarios: By winning Thursday night, Baltimore clinched at least a tie for the East, but holds the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay. With that, Baltimore has clinched the 1 seed and Tampa Bay the 4. With yesterday's loss, the best the Twins can do is get to 88 wins. Texas is at 89, so it's been settled that the West winner will be the 2 seed, relegating the Twins to the 3 seed. In the West, Texas leads Houston by 2 games and Seattle by 3. If Texas wins two or three against Seattle, they win the division outright. If Texas wins one, Houston must sweep Arizona to create a tie. Houston has the tiebreaker, so would win the division. Thus, the Texas magic number is 2. If Texas is swept by Seattle, both have 89 wins.... If Houston wins three against Arizona, Houston wins outright with 90 wins. If Houston wins two against Arizona, all three teams have 89 wins. In that case, Seattle wins the tiebreaker, going 14-12 in their head-to-head games, compared to Houston's 13-13 and Texas' 12-14. If Houston wins one or zero against Arizona, Texas wins the division by tiebreaker over Seattle. Toronto lost Thursday, but is still the leader for the No. 5 seed. Given that there are still 512 permutations involving the three series that matter, I'm not going to try sorting them out from here. Remaining schedule: Here's the remaining schedule of games involving Toronto and the three West division teams. Teams have only announced their starters through the current series, but I've added the person who would be starting if they continue in the same pattern they've been in. Friday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (Kikuchi). Houston (France) @ Arizona. Texas (Eovaldi) @ Seattle (Woo). Saturday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (TBA). Houston (Verlander) @ Arizona. Texas (TBA) @ Seattle (TBA). Sunday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (TBA). Houston (TBA) @ Arizona. Texas (TBA) @ Seattle (TBA). Other notes: Houston has named Verlander as their starter for Saturday, keeping him on four days rest, Other teams haven't named their starters for Saturday and Sunday. Any team which clinches would likely revise their rotation the remainder of the way. Also of importance: The White Sox won Wednesday night, so they have to win two of their remaining three to avoid 100 losses. They have three with San Diego. Let's go, Padres!

I didn't talk to him last night, but that's an example of a shift. The four host teams are now settled and with two Easterns and two Centrals, I was hoping they'd slide forward at least a bit, which they seem to have done. I'd guess that one of the Central games will be in the 9 p.m. slot, which would make it 8 p.m. local time. I'd agree that I'm guessing MLB is particularly hoping the Cubs get in. If so, I'd guess Cubs at Milwaukee would get the 8 p.m.

Welp. I guess we've got plans for Tuesday.

Does Louis go "pbpbpbpbpbp" like a horse before throwing a pitch? From my experience, the best starter-turned-relievers do that.