IndianaTwin

With Toronto having defeated Tampa Bay, there are still 256 permutations of results from the three series that affect AL seeding. Here's the percentages on each combination of seedings:

It's being reported that ESPN has updated the schedule even further for Tuesday. Their search function reports (all times Eastern): ABC at 2 p.m. ESPN at 4:30 and 7:30 p.m. ESPN 2 at 7 p.m. Again, there may be more tinkering, but it looks like they are accommodating having Eastern and Central locations.

With the Twins playing in Colorado, here’s a tidbit I read today. Did you know that in the olden days, Cowboys would hang their lanterns on their seat when they were riding at night? It was an early form of saddle light navigation.

There are 512 permutations on the three three-game series that affect the AL's seeding. In some working through the tiebreakers, if all games were coin flips, the likelihood of seedings appear to be these: That was my work on a spreadsheet. One of the formulas comes out as this, however, so I'm not going to bet my life on scoring 100 percent! It was fun giving it a whirl, however. =IF(BA490=91,"TOR",IF(AX490=90,"Tex",IF(AY490=90,"Hou",IF(AZ490=90,"Tor",IF(AND(BB490=1,AW490=89),"Sea",IF(AND(BB490=1,AY490=89),"Hou",IF(AND(BB490=1,AZ490=89),"Tor",IF(AND(BB490=3,AY490=0),"Tex",IF(AND(BB490=3,AW490=0),"Hou",IF(AND(BB490=2,AY490=89,AZ490=89),"Hou",IF(AND(BB490=2,AW490=89,AZ490=89),"Sea",IF(AND(BB490,AX490=89,AY490=89),"Hou",IF(AND(BB490=2,AW490=89,AX490=89),"Tex",IF(AND(BC490=1,AZ490=88),"Tor",IF(BC490=3,"Sea",IF(AW490=AZ490,"Sea","Hou"))))))))))))))))

An earlier version had significantly more overlap with the Fathead. The balancing act I'm working with is trying to get as much card space while also not making it wider than necessary. I've not cut the top and bottom pieces yet, so I'll be able to play with the amount of overlap (or lack thereof) when doing the installation.

Hmm. I do have a couple Homer Hankies as well. I'll have to think about those.

I do have enough room remaining on the wall for some additional items, though I haven't decided what will go there yet. I do have space between a window and the corner of the room next to these where I may go with a shelf and the Wheaties boxes I have from 1987 and 1991. I also have a nice picture of Oliva that I took at a spring training in the mid-90s.

Regretfully, a few things have come into focus. Thankfully, that makes this shorter. Specifically... The East is settled. The Twins are locked in to the 3 seed. But here goes: Current standings: Baltimore (100-59), Tampa Bay (97-62), Texas (89-70), Toronto (88-71), Houston (87-72), Seattle (86-73), Minnesota (85-74) Tiebreaker procedure: If there is a three (or more)-way tie that involves the division leader and wild card position(s), the division leader tiebreaker will be resolved first. Then, remaining ties will be broken as needed to determine wild card berths and seeds. Magic numbers/seed scenarios: By winning Thursday night, Baltimore clinched at least a tie for the East, but holds the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay. With that, Baltimore has clinched the 1 seed and Tampa Bay the 4. With yesterday's loss, the best the Twins can do is get to 88 wins. Texas is at 89, so it's been settled that the West winner will be the 2 seed, relegating the Twins to the 3 seed. In the West, Texas leads Houston by 2 games and Seattle by 3. If Texas wins two or three against Seattle, they win the division outright. If Texas wins one, Houston must sweep Arizona to create a tie. Houston has the tiebreaker, so would win the division. Thus, the Texas magic number is 2. If Texas is swept by Seattle, both have 89 wins.... If Houston wins three against Arizona, Houston wins outright with 90 wins. If Houston wins two against Arizona, all three teams have 89 wins. In that case, Seattle wins the tiebreaker, going 14-12 in their head-to-head games, compared to Houston's 13-13 and Texas' 12-14. If Houston wins one or zero against Arizona, Texas wins the division by tiebreaker over Seattle. Toronto lost Thursday, but is still the leader for the No. 5 seed. Given that there are still 512 permutations involving the three series that matter, I'm not going to try sorting them out from here. Remaining schedule: Here's the remaining schedule of games involving Toronto and the three West division teams. Teams have only announced their starters through the current series, but I've added the person who would be starting if they continue in the same pattern they've been in. Friday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (Kikuchi). Houston (France) @ Arizona. Texas (Eovaldi) @ Seattle (Woo). Saturday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (TBA). Houston (Verlander) @ Arizona. Texas (TBA) @ Seattle (TBA). Sunday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (TBA). Houston (TBA) @ Arizona. Texas (TBA) @ Seattle (TBA). Other notes: Houston has named Verlander as their starter for Saturday, keeping him on four days rest, Other teams haven't named their starters for Saturday and Sunday. Any team which clinches would likely revise their rotation the remainder of the way. Also of importance: The White Sox won Wednesday night, so they have to win two of their remaining three to avoid 100 losses. They have three with San Diego. Let's go, Padres!

I didn't talk to him last night, but that's an example of a shift. The four host teams are now settled and with two Easterns and two Centrals, I was hoping they'd slide forward at least a bit, which they seem to have done. I'd guess that one of the Central games will be in the 9 p.m. slot, which would make it 8 p.m. local time. I'd agree that I'm guessing MLB is particularly hoping the Cubs get in. If so, I'd guess Cubs at Milwaukee would get the 8 p.m.

Welp. I guess we've got plans for Tuesday.

Does Louis go "pbpbpbpbpbp" like a horse before throwing a pitch? From my experience, the best starter-turned-relievers do that.

Thanks for the catch -- that's what I get for typing at 12:30 a.m.! Yes, my sentence should have said if Houston wins one or two, the tie is Seattle and TEXAS, with tiebreakers such that the Twins are the 2 and TEXAS is the 3. I've corrected.

Fill it and it's still a buck a piece!

I get it -- I live in Eastern time, so even the regular season 7:10 CDT home starts become 8:10 starts (and 10:45-ish ends!) for me.

"Logic" dictates these decisions, but each person has their own understanding of what's logical. 😀 I agree with you in principle that the consistency would be nice, but if the only series that goes to three games is the that started at 2 p.m. Eastern (11 a.m. Pacific), they aren't going to leave it there. They will want to move it to prime time. It's always that way during the "if necessary" parts of series. On the day that the ALCS has a potential Game 7 and the NLCS has a potential Game 6, for example, they won't make the announcement until after they know which game(s) are needed. The Game 7 would get the best ratings time slot, but the Game 6 would move to that slot if Game 7 isn't necessary.

And Opening Day. Seriously, the best date ever for MLB playoff watching was in 2020, when because of COVID, there were 16 teams in the playoffs, so the second day had four AL Wild Card game 2s and four NL Wild Card game 1s. I told people it was the closest MLB had ever come to the first two days of the NCAA men's basketball tourney as a TV event. The next day would have been similar, except that only one of the AL Wild Card series went to three games, so there were only five series still in play. (Some of you may be aware that the Twins were one of the AL teams that lost two straight. That comes up from time to time around here.)

If their postseason results match the ‘87 club, I won’t get too hung up on settling for 85 wins.

I assume Lopez was on a pitch count. Go to 75 pitches and finish the batter. Had their been two outs, he might have been given a chance to get the third. Similarly, I’m not worried about Duran getting the seventh. I think the goal was just to get him an inning and then try to have Keuchel finish it out, including if they needed to go to extra innings. With a little trouble, they let Jax finish off. I’ll also not be surprised if we see Keuchel starting on Sunday as they seek to rest starters and others who will be on the postseason roster.

Concur.

I greatly enjoyed congregational ministry, but have shifted into denominational ministry. I’ll pick up the conversation with you via email as well.

The snapshot has gained a smidge more focus from Wednesday morning, but not much. Here’s an updated look at things heading into Thursday’s action. Current standings: Baltimore (99-59), Tampa Bay (97-62), Texas (89-69), Toronto (87-71), Houston (87-72), Seattle (85-73), Minnesota (85-73). Tiebreaker procedure: If there is a three (or more)-way tie that involves the division leader and wild card position(s), the division leader tiebreaker will be resolved first. Then, remaining ties will be broken as needed to determine wild card berths and seeds. Magic numbers/seed scenarios: Baltimore and Tampa Bay will be the 1 and 4 seeds. Baltimore's magic number to win the division and be the 1 seed has dropped to two. The best the Twins can do is get to 89 wins. If they do not win out, they will be the 3 seed. If Texas wins at least one against Seattle, they will have at least 90 wins and make the Twins the 3 seed. If Seattle sweeps Texas and the Twins win out, all three teams will have 89 wins. In that scenario… If Houston wins all three against Arizona, they will have 90 wins, win the division and make the Twins the 3 seed. If Houston wins two of three, the West becomes a three-way tie. In that scenario, Seattle wins the tiebreaker in those three teams. They have the tiebreaker over the Twins, so they would be the 2 seed and the Twins the 3. If Houston wins 0 or 1 against Arizona, the West is a two-way tie between Seattle and Texas. Texas wins the tiebreaker for the division, but the Twins have the tiebreaker over Texas, so Minnesota would be the 2 seed and Texas the 3. This is the only remaining scenario where the Twins earn the 2 seed. For the previous sub-bullet, if games were coin flips, there’s a 1 in 256 chance of the Twins and Seattle winning out. There is a 4 in 8 (1 in 2) chance of Houston winning 0 or 1. Combine those, and there’s a 1 in 512 chance of the Twins being the 2 seed. That’s 0.195 percent. I’d encourage having snacks on hand for Tuesday. Toronto lost Wednesday, but Seattle lost, so Toronto’s magic number to make the playoffs is now three. Their magic number to be the 5 seed is also three. These do not take tiebreakers into account. Texas's magic number to win the West is two. Remaining schedule: Here's the remaining schedule of games involving Toronto and the three West division teams. Teams have only announced their starters through the current series, but I've added the person who would be starting if they continue in the same pattern they've been in. Thursday: NYY @ Toronto (Bassitt). Texas (Montgomery) @ Seattle (Gilbert). Friday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (TBA-Ryu). Houston (France) @ Arizona. Texas (TBA-Eovaldi) @ Seattle (TBA-Woo). Saturday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (TBA-Kikuchi). Houston (Verlander) @ Arizona. Texas (TBA-Gray) @ Seattle (TBA-Castillo). Sunday: Tampa Bay @ Toronto (TBA-Gausman). Houston (TBA-Javier/Brown) @ Arizona. Texas (TBA-Bradford) @ Seattle (TBA-Kirby). Other notes: Gray left Monday's start early for Texas. Without an off day, he would be scheduled to start him Saturday. if Texas skips him, they would either need to use Bradford on short rest or slot someone else in his spot (including the Opener option). Bradford went only 73 pitches Tuesday night, so it's conceivable. Then on Sunday, they would either need to use Gray with an extra day, Dunning on short rest or someone else. Houston has named Verlander as their starter for Saturday, keeping him on four days rest, skipping Brown’s spot in the rotation. Sunday’s starter could either be Javier on four days rest or Brown on six. The significance of Verlander moving to Saturday is that increases his availability for the wild card round. See the next item, Any team which clinches would likely revise their rotation the remainder of the way. Wednesday starters could pitch next Game 1 on an extra day's rest. Thursday starters could pitch Game 1 on their regular schedule. Friday's starters could start Game 1 on short rest or Game 2 on normal rest. Saturday's starters could start Game 2 on short rest or Game 3 on normal. Sunday's starters could pitch Game 3 on short rest. Also of importance: The White Sox lost Wednesday night, so they have to win three of their remaining four to avoid 100 losses. They have one with Arizona and three with San Diego. The last time they’ve won three of four was part of a four of five streak that ended August 9. Their previous time of winning three was four was part of a six of seven and seven of nine streak that ended June 9. At that point, they were 29-36, so they’ve gone 31-62 since that point. That’s actually 108-loss pace. Let's go, D’Backs and Padres!

See Nine of Twelve’s post above for the explanation, but Seattle wins a three-way tie.

I would certainly be able to make connections in a church, being an ordained Mennonite minister and all. Two of the three folks I mentioned above fit the profile you’re referencing. 😄 In our community, the niche is primarily furniture, though I’m sure I could find someone, perhaps at the local retirement home that has a pretty excellent woodworking shop for the residents in independent living What you are describing sounds really sweet, though I’m pretty sure the net would indeed exceed my budget (see aforementioned minister reference in a denomination that practices simplicity [also, 😄]. The art pieces also sound awesome — I’d love to see a pic and hear the story behind them. Feel free to share by email if you prefer.

I didn’t see it, but it sounded like he was lights out the first inning and not so much in the second. I could easily imagine him being amped up for the inning to the point that he was bound for a letdown. After throwing last night, I’m guessing he’s on the docket for an inning or two on Thursday or Friday, so we’ll see how that goes

@USAFChief's high school principal walked around showing off the abacus they were using to keep score on.