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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    I read that the Vikings so despise the Packers that they refuse to accept a Lombardi Trophy. (Too soon? 😀 I'm not a football fan.)
  2. IndianaTwin
    Maybe ask Carlos what Carlos's mindset is right now, rather than speculating? The main part of the OP I can agree with is asking, "What's the point of pondering Correa's state of mind?"
  3. IndianaTwin
    I'm not trying to be a smark aleck with this question, but when's the last time a starting pitcher that is ready has legitimately been blocked by ineffective starters? And I used the 10th/11th man at the end of the season as my argument, but let's also think of it differently. Because of injuries, I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that Matthews ends up starting one of the first five games. So if you accept my argument that there's a better than 50/50 chance that someone outside the "projected" top five begins in the rotation (or if you prefer, that there's a better than 50/50 chance that a projected starter begins the season on the IL), then the question becomes, do you want to take Paddack out of the mix and expect that Zebby Matthews will likely start the season in the rotation when one of Lopez-Ober-Ryan-SWR-Festa ends up on the IL? With how Matthews threw last year and knowing that he's only had four AAA starts, I don't.
  4. IndianaTwin
    I would argue for that as well, but apparently the "solstice" term has gotten traction. https://science.abainternational.org/2025/01/03/a-solstice-and-a-whole-lot-of-scallops/
  5. IndianaTwin
    To focus on Paddack as a starter, you're really comparing Paddack to something like your 11th starter. I chose 11th because you listed (or implied) nine other starters besides Paddack. What I mean by that is if if you dump Paddack just for the sake of dumping him, you're sliding everyone up the ladder. In many (most?) seasons, you're going to need to go at least 11 deep. So if Paddack doesn't get starts, you're saying that you're willing to use someone not on that list. I get that you're saying Festa will be better in the long run, but with Festa never having thrown more than 125 innings, I don't think it's a huge loss to plan for a best-case (in terms of health) scenario that he starts in St. Paul. Ober in 2023 is a good case in point. He only started five games (22.2 innings) in St. Paul before he was needed. If he's healthy and effective, Festa won't be in St. Paul long enough to shoot many of his bullets. And in reality, I wonder if folks are underestimating Paddack. Will he last the season healthwise? Perhaps (even probably) not. But if you look at his game log from a year ago, his shaky overall stats are really driven by a couple games where he took one for the team, which happens much more for a veteran than it does for a young guy. He had a good number of games that were decent or really quite good. Said another way, Paddack's best games were better than Festa's best games. I'm glad to roll the dice with Paddack as a starter and buy continued development time for Festa, et al.
  6. IndianaTwin
    Similarly, at least one of Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya and Lewis will make a start in April.
  7. IndianaTwin
    Plus the IL spot(s) that will be needed. The likelihood of all seven being healthy at the end of spring training is a decimal, some number of zeroes and a 1 percent.
  8. IndianaTwin
    Out of curiosity, what was the "budget" that was assumed by those of us with incomplete information* throughout the winter of 2021-22? Because that number changed pretty dramatically, to the tune of $35.1 million, on March 22. To say there's no path to a passing grade in mid-January, when we've barely passed the Baseball Solstice** seems silly. In addition to the aforementioned signing, the Pablo Lopez trade happened on January 20 and the Jake Odorizzi trade on February 17, and those are just the first few late-offseason moves that come to mind. *I.e., all of us on TwinsDaily. **That date that is midway between the last day of the World Series and Opening Day.
  9. IndianaTwin
    Neither Jax nor Duran pitched in the 6th inning of a game last year. Duran pitched in the 7th in only game. Only 23 percent of Jax’s innings were in the 7th.
  10. IndianaTwin
    It has a box allowing you to name why you are editing, but filling in that box isn't required. Try tweaking your post somehow, but don't fill in that box and see if it still saves.
  11. IndianaTwin
    Yes. At catcher, you almost have to list two players for each team.
  12. IndianaTwin
    Or Castro (or even Correa), to free up money...
  13. IndianaTwin
    I’ve been saying the same and would agree with Jorgenswest “widely reported or widely repeated” question. I’ve also commented that “needle nudging” describes this FO’s general MO anyway, so I’ll agree with your last paragraph as well.
  14. IndianaTwin
    These proposals seem to fit into the “let’s make a trade so we can say we made a trade” category, which is not a good strategy to work from.
  15. IndianaTwin
    Likely! 😀 I knew it was one of the regulars. On the panel, it could have been Kalk -- I didn't take notes either. It was the session out of the weekend that I most wished someone could have reported on for TD, just because of the snapshot it provided into conversations like this.
  16. IndianaTwin
    Again, Kepler was dramatically platooned throughout his career. Here's his career numbers, and they don't change much on a year-by-year basis. If anything, they become more pronounced: The additional variable on the Wallner/Julien/Margot/Farmer piece has to do with options. The latter two didn't have one and help demonstrate why options can be so important, particularly with a four-man bench (effectively three, with the catcher). I've appreciated the way you've framed the roster makeup questions as they apply to platooning. I think the challenge you've described would be different with even one more bench position to play with, resulting in one fewer "full-time" player, let alone two or three more bench players. People have also highlighted Stengel, but he was working with an eight-man bench (if the roster was indeed 25 at the time -- I'm not sure). Teams then typically had only nine pitchers, and they weren't using a DH, so there were eight position players on the field and eight on the bench. It's easy to roster platoon advantages in that scenario.* *It's also easier to manage platoons at other positions when your roster includes Berra, Mantle, Elston Howard, et. al.
  17. IndianaTwin
    You called?
  18. IndianaTwin
    I don't disagree with your general premise, but I'm not sure using catcher is a fair example, since at catcher, they are much more committed to load management and letting him play the full game than they are to platoon differences (which makes sense, when you have two righty-hitting catchers). I do think you nailed what will be an interesting decision if Rodriguez forces his way to a promotion and the Buxton, Larnach and Wallner are all healthy and producing. May it be so! But even in that scenario, I suspect there will still be plenty of times when two of the lefties would have a day off as they try to sneak a few starts to another righty (say Martin or Helman) or switchy (Castro). And depending on health and the rest of the roster, there could easily be days when Buxton would be flanked by one of Martin/Helman and Castro. For example, it's not hard to imagine a day when the lineup (by position numbers, not batting order) is Vazquez, Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Correa, Castro, Buxton, Martin, with Jeffers at DH, leaving Larnach, Wallner, Rodriguez and Julien on the bench. If you don't want to imagine Martin in right, consider him hurt with either Helman or a low-budget signing there instead (playing the role Margot was supposed to be playing).
  19. IndianaTwin
    Actually, only 10 of Kepler's 88 starts this year were against lefties. That's 11.4 percent. By contrast, 6 of Wallner's 33 starts in right (18.2 percent) were against lefties. For context, opponents started a lefty in 46 of 162 games (28.4 percent) The percentage of starts vs. lefties isn't a full apples-to-apples comparison, because it doesn't take into account what the options were. Several of Wallner's starts came when Kepler was out for the year, which meant a weaker bench. You did hit the nail on the head in that Kepler's defense probably kept him in the game more often against a lefty. That 20.5 percent of his plate appearances came against lefties though only 11 percent of his starts did suggests that he hit against lefty relievers on a more regular basis. This would be a really small sample size, I'm sure, but it did seem that if either Kepler or Wallner came off the bench to face a righty (most often replacing Margot) and then came to the spot where he would be facing a lefty later in the game, Kepler was more likely to stay in the game and do that (partially for defensive purposes), whereas Wallner was more likely to get pulled for a second pinch hitter. My primary point, however, is to say that Kepler didn't grow into facing more lefties over the course of his career. If anything, he tilted in the direction of facing fewer lefties over time.
  20. IndianaTwin
    Actually, Kepler didn't work his way through facing lefties. I had that sense as well, but a week or so ago, I went back and looked at Kepler's splits, to see if we might expect a shift with Wallner and Larnach over time. Kepler's percentage of plate appearances against left-handed batters was pretty consistent throughout his career. This past year, for example, he only had 20.5 percent of his PAs against lefties. If anything, he moved further in the direction of platooning, since he's had 25.5 percent of his PAs against lefties over the course of his career.
  21. IndianaTwin
    One of the regulars has cited this law regularly, which is what made me track it down as well. Couldn't remember who, but I read your comment in that context. In a prior life, I was a sportswriter, so I was amused reading about it and recalling it when I see questions in headlines. He's not wrong.
  22. IndianaTwin
    If Correa, Buxton and Lewis combine for Fangraph's 1714 projected plate appearances, I'll take my chances with the rest of the roster.
  23. IndianaTwin
    I enjoyed being able to attend the SABR convention in Minneapolis this summer, and one of the highlights was a panel discussion that included Falvey. He talked a fair amount about lineup construction, his relationship with Rocco and how they work together. He talked about how they talk (at least) daily during the season, including very soon after each game. They talk about how the game went, strategic decisions and lots of other stuff. It was actually pretty interesting, and I mean that in a positive way. I don't remember that he talked as much about Rocco's input into roster construction, but I assume it's a both/and. They talk regularly (daily) about lineup construction, and Falvey is offering his input, but the buck stops with Rocco in making the final decision in making out the lineup card. I'm sure they are also talking regularly (likely also daily) about roster construction (or at least it's a backdrop to their lineup conversations), with Rocco offering his input, but the buck stops with Falvey in making the roster moves. And frankly, I think that's the way it ought to be. I'd much rather they be on the same page than differing, with Rocco using guys against Falvey's wishes and Falvey providing Rocco with players that don't fit Rocco's managing style and Falvey meddling with lineup decisions. That would be a disaster.
  24. IndianaTwin
    But, but, but... Betteridge.* *That is you that is always citing him, right?
  25. IndianaTwin
    That’s great. A few years ago, I went on eBay and Amazon and bought a couple of the books I read as a kid. You can usually find them for just a few bucks and it was fun to read them again.
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