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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    What you are saying is that FP% can suffer from sample size issues. The thing is, so do all analytics, esp. defensive ones. If FP% is indicating a guy is rubbish, very likely anything advanced is saying the same thing. However, FP% normalizes faster than UZR. I have never seen anyone suggest that you need three years of FP% to trust it. *THIS* is where FP% can be misleading -- it might show someone is a good fielder when he is not. If FP% shows a player sucks, he does. Anything more advanced is going to simply back that up. And if it doesn't, don't trust it. The real issue is that sample is too small for the more advanced metric.
  2. Doomtints
    You sound a lot like the front office that the organization is about to lay off. No analytics, just gut feelings.
  3. Doomtints
    No one "pisses and moans" about losing Ortiz. Or even gripes or complains. We feel it was unfortunate. That's it. One big difference between then and now is that, back then, the Twins had a good pitching staff and few holes on the field. Now?
  4. Doomtints
    Pitching - sure. Coaching - sure. Don't forget: defense, defense, defense.
  5. Doomtints
    Duffy to the pen is a good idea. The rest of these guys ... eh ...
  6. Doomtints
    He should have been up the whole time and starting. He has a .905 OPS this year. Vargas is the 900 OPS guy the team has. Park is guy the team wants to have the .900 OPS, however.
  7. Doomtints
    On Hughes.... As you all know, Hughes went from doctor to doctor this year only to find he was affected by something that none of us had ever heard of. A week later a different pitcher was identified in the MLB and had the same surgery. Until Hughes hits the field and becomes a different player, I am a bit skeptical about how the surgery he had will help him.
  8. Doomtints
    Current/past front office almost certainly ditches Vargas (for little to nothing) and promotes Park back up next year. Who knows what the next front office will do. Vargas probably hopes to be traded so he can play regularly and go all Ortiz on us. Vargas has been good all year and there is no good reason to keep him off the field. His "bad year" last year consisted of a bad start which he was recovering from very well when he was demoted.
  9. Doomtints
    What you are posting there is last 7 days, not last 14.
  10. Doomtints
    As great as the Cubs are, they have still been playing at an unsustainable tick lately. I believe they are the best team in baseball right now, mind you. If the Twins losses don't match the Cubs wins, it will be damn close.
  11. Doomtints
    Not really. I'm saying to stop crowning him as "fixed" based on one week of good play. People have been doing this all year. Give the kid some breathing room before cracking open the champagne. When he plays well for 6-8 weeks then it would make sense to begin saying he is *starting* to turn the corner.
  12. Doomtints
    Buxton over the past 14 days: .184/.262/.395. People gotta stop grabbing these tiny sample sizes for Buxton and then acting disappointed when the full sample size settles in. He was good for 1 week after he came back. His defense is great but he needs to hit. This is nothing new.
  13. Doomtints
    I think Sano and Polanco are the future stars of this team -- over Buxton and everyone else. Not sure where you're getting that from.
  14. Doomtints
    Not necessarily. But I am saying that if someones FP% is terrible, you don't have to bother looking at anything else. You know by that alone that he is terrible. You only need to look at other things like Total Zone or UZR if the player's FP% is near average or better. You can't completely discount FP%.
  15. Doomtints
    Very true. I'll take it a step beyond that and say that FP% should always be Exhibit A when judging defense. If someone refuses to even look at FP%, he or she will never understand a player's defense. Essentially, if FP% is far below average for the position, you need not look any further to know the player is bad at the position. You don't have to bother looking at 'advanced' metrics if the FP% is laughable. You only need to look at the other metrics if FP% looks fine.
  16. Doomtints
    For me, the eyeball test doesn't look tragic for Polanco. His reaction time is fine. For positioning, often he is in the right position both for fielding hits and for covering the bag. He doesn't have to move much to do either task. His throwing accuracy is fine but he is slow to release the ball. However, he could certainly be taking his time because he can see where the baserunner is. Good players don't rush the throw when there is no reason to. I haven't seen a play where he has had to throw the ball quickly, though at least one such play surely has happened. Long story short -- we haven't seen enough of him out there to know.
  17. Doomtints
    The best defensive metrics that come out of Statcast are arm strength (velocity & accuracy of throws), exchange (time between fielding and throwing), and first step (reaction time). These three things can be reliable with very small samples. Realize, however, that these three things are what we all measure with the "eyeball test." So how does Polanco LOOK out there? Are his throws accurate? Does he react quickly? Does he field and throw quickly? Many of the other Statcast stats are very raw, are measuring things that really say the opposite of what we expect (e.g., the player showing the highest average range is actually a guy who is playing out of position). For the most part, statcast provides "averages" and raw data (which can be analyzed by looking at "best plays" and "worst plays" by a player). The defensive metrics are hard to find mostly because they are so raw and because they use unweighted averages which are misleading. For this stuff, you still need big sample sizes. Statcast routing data is simply a computer computing distance from point A (the fielder) and point B (where the ball is fielded). It's a two-dimensional computation that is currently too basic. It's not much better than what we already have easy access to. Offensive and pitching statcast data can be found with some hunting around and this is where statcast really shines.
  18. Doomtints
    I don't disagree with how bad they were. As I said, there were a lot of "injuries" on the team as well as injuries. Nevertheless, they had to dig into the minors more than they could handle.
  19. Doomtints
    The problem with luck is that it can't account for general streakiness that exists with most teams as the idea of "luck" looks at a rollup of stats. The 2015 Twins had a very nice good streak (though really so did the 2016 Twins). The 2016 Twins also had a few legendarily bad streaks. I'm not sure you can say 2016 was bad luck with a straight face -- their record seems pretty accurate to me -- but I think it's fair that the 2015 Twins exceeded what anyone expected. To cite Bill James: "When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next." I knew about this theory before the 2016 Twins season, but I still held out hope that it would be wrong.
  20. Doomtints
    Truth.
  21. Doomtints
    The Twins seemed to find themselves without pitchers wanting to come to MN due to a sense of jerking the pitchers they had around. Maybe they'll find the same problem with GMs. I hope not. If it were me I would see this as a yellow flag and not a red flag.
  22. Doomtints
    Only three players played more than 100 games in 2011 and no team has enough depth to cover that. Looking at that roster isn't quite fair because some of those players would have never played in the majors if not for what was going on, or if they would have played it would have been years later. The problem is the Twins then got rid of people who they should have kept while continuing to march out players who should not have been in the majors. They could have solved this problem in 1-2 years if they had made better decisions. There are a lot of things that could have happened to cause Smith's dismissal. There were injuries on that team, but there were also "injuries" which suggests there was a lot of griping in the clubhouse. Likely there were meetings with players and higher ups. It's possible Smith was approached with some of this and didn't handle the criticism very well.
  23. Doomtints
    I'm not too worried about a GM feeling like he/she is married to Molitor. If the team is bad next year and Molitor still seems culpable, a good GM will find a way to fire Molitor before the end of the season.
  24. Doomtints
    Hey now. Zach Jones is back in the Twins org and pitching well in AA. He'll be with the Twins before you can say "Zachie Robinson!"
  25. Doomtints
    Tom Baker has spoken.
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