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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    Sure. I freely admit my application was unconventional with the intent to blow up the number. Nevertheless, what I said is still correct.
  2. Doomtints
    Looking at BP's metrics on Castro, they show him as below average for throwing and blocking, which is confirmed by the metrics you'll find anywhere else. For 2016, they show him as having saved 17 runs (a career high) with his pitch framing which I don't think would amount to 0.22 ERA among the whole staff -- perhaps 0.02. Comparing to Suzuki, Castro is a huge drop off for blocking but otherwise he is an improvement. So as long as Berrios, May, etc., can find the strike zone this year, Castro will be an upgrade defensively. Neither of them are good at throwing, but Castro is better. I would call Suzuki the "safer" catcher, good to pair up with a wild pitcher. Castro is the guy you want paired with your top starters. He can get that extra strike out of an umpire if the umpire is already liking who is on the mound. With the current Twins pitching situation I'm not sold on Castro being the answer. As for his bat, Castro has more potential than Suzuki, but at the end of the day the results from the both of them are a bit even with Castro being good at some things and Suzuki being equally good at other things. Castro could have a break out year though. Suzuki's break out year is behind him.
  3. Doomtints
    And 1+1=2!
  4. Doomtints
    RF is available for minor league stats so SSS isn't an issue. Even if you don't trust the minors stats for some reason, RF is considered trustworthy after half a season as opposed to 3 years for UZR. RF is far from an uberstat. You can't use it for first basemen, for example. But it's a good stat for looking at other position players who haven't been in the majors for three full years yet. I look at RF for rookies or players with tiny MLB sample sizes. I use Total Zone for seasons with at least 100 starts at a position because I think it's important to be able to compare players from any era. I look at the UZR suite only casually. I love looking at Statcast data but like everybody else I feel it's hard to get one's head around. Plus it seems spotty/difficult to access fully. As far as Adrianza goes, I think the Twins probably see something they can correct with his bat because he spreads it around and makes good contact. The results just haven't been there for him. With more walks he can be an everyday player even if he can't hit for power. His defense is an upgrade, average-to-above-average. He has a lot of potential to be a good backup player as his floor.
  5. Doomtints
    This is what we do. Sad, no?
  6. Doomtints
    Umpiring has improved since pitch framing became a thing. It shows an umpire's tendencies just as much as it shows a catcher's. The crappier umpires don't like pitch framing one bit, but many of them have gotten better because of it.
  7. Doomtints
    Yeah. Guy blows out his arm and loses a year trying to throw from 3B. Guy has balls bounce off the top of his head while fielding at 3B. Sano has no value as a defender, and if he gets injured while fielding then you've just lost his bat. Why risk that when the bat is all you care about?
  8. Doomtints
    RIF. I said "signed and cut 8 times." You can divide that number by two to get the number of times he was cut. Electing to be released rather than being sent to the minors is the same as being cut. You can use the term "released" if that sounds better.
  9. Doomtints
    "Injury prone" is a strong term that I would not use to describe Buxton, at least not yet. Still, I would not have the expectation for him to play a full season. He still has not been good for more than a month at a time and he has had some injuries. He would be a guy who I would rest every two weeks, at least in 2017. If he gets injured or suffers through another a long slump he isn't helping anybody. If he plays 135 games in 2017, then you can push for 155 next year.
  10. Doomtints
    He has to both stay healthy and hit well enough. Both have been elusive for him so far. Considering his history, if I were in charge I don't think I'd even want him out there 155 games yet.
  11. Doomtints
    I'm not concerned with the CF defense either, though I would be surprised if Buxton plays 155 games out there.
  12. Doomtints
    I would not have released Breslow either. I suspect the Twins thought they could sneak him through waivers. The Twins were not the first team that didn't know what to do with RA Dickey. I think his story has little to do with the Twins. The Mets turned him back into a starter and he surprised everybody while he was there.
  13. Doomtints
    Probably.
  14. Doomtints
    I think the Ryan II-era Twins proved very well how important good CF defense is. Without Aaron Hicks out there the defense was costing them games. Unfortunately, with him out there his bat was costing them games....
  15. Doomtints
    I think improving the defense is a great first step. I disagree that Castro's defense is good, but I like the premise in this article that shoring up the defense is a priority. Unfortunately there are limited things the Twins can do defensively as there are some big bats they want to keep in the lineup, bats that are attached to some rather iffy defenders. In any case, improving defense + improving starting pitching could be done concurrently....
  16. Doomtints
    Weird. You're fighting rather than looking it up? RZR is not range factor. This is range factor. You won't find it on fangraphs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_factor Fangraphites don't like range factor because you cannot compare people who play different positions with it. You can only compare 1B to 1B, 2B to 2B, etc. Therefore you can't roll it up into an advanced metric like UZR. But you CAN use it to compare a SS to other shortstops.
  17. Doomtints
    That's the entire point. BP has not done this step in spite of having 115 years of history to compare to. These numbers are useless.
  18. Doomtints
    He was waived a 2nd time by the Rangers while putting up very good numbers.
  19. Doomtints
    That's not range factor if you are referring to the highlighted column.
  20. Doomtints
    The authors are clear that PECOTA purposely regresses to the mean. By these results it is obvious that their algorithm does this too much. Though yes it's most likely that the largest segment of teams will be within a standard deviation, there should still be some outliers. If you plot this on a bell curve (something BP should have done to check their work), with 81 as the mean (.500) and 10% of the season as a standard deviation (16 wins), you will find quickly that all but one of these teams are within 1 one standard deviation of one another. This means if you sum the good and bad teams in 2017, you get a grand total of one. Every other team is average. If you cut the standard deviation in half (8 wins), all but 8 teams are within a standard deviation. Does this seem right to you? The sum of good + bad teams in 2017 will only equal 8, and only then if you bend the standard deviation to 5%?
  21. Doomtints
    A guy who is signed and cut 8 times in two years probably has some character or substance abuse issues. I doubt this will last long.
  22. Doomtints
    If someone wants to claim Jim Hoey Light, let 'em. If the Twins lose any sleep over that one they are off their meds.
  23. Doomtints
    I don't think the Twins were fooled. His numbers were not impressive with the Sox either. The Twins simply decided to take the gamble.
  24. Doomtints
    Too small of a sample size to use UZR or even Total Zone. Just use Range Factor for now.
  25. Doomtints
    Hm. The win projections look like rubbish across the board to me. I just lost faith in PECOTA, whatever formula they are using clearly is regressing to the mean too much.
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