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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    The ideal situation is that Dozier goes somewhere else and Polanco takes his slot. However, if Dozier stays then the Twins have to put Polanco at SS. Letting Polanco rot in the minors isn't the answer. Will the result be a "disaster"? Not really, but the results on paper may not look great. Defensive metrics such as Total Zone in particular will look unfavorably upon whoever is at SS even when the ball is bouncing off of the top of Sano's head and not the head of whoever is playing SS. We all can see Dozier's defensive dropoff after Pedro Florimon was no longer standing next to him. Whoever plays next to Sano over the next few years is going to be unfairly rated defensively. Best case is that Sano gets the yips sooner rather than later and shuffles over to DH. And heck, speaking of defensive metrics, Dozier isn't that great either on paper. We all know he can play 2B adequately regardless.
  2. Doomtints
    If there is one thing I have learned watching the Twins over the past five years, the biggest worry is killing a roster spot, not killing the payroll.
  3. Doomtints
    Disastrous? No.
  4. Doomtints
    Exactly. The top pitchers will be out of the Twins price range.
  5. Doomtints
    If Law describes what he ranks as the 11th best farm system as a system that has a lot of mid-level players but zero future stars, the 12th-30th ranked teams must be real dumpster fires. This would immediately upgrade the Twins "good but uninteresting" players significantly if the rest of the market is so terrible. Law contradicted himself a bit by ranking the Twins as high as 11. However, regardless of his #11 ranking, what he is saying about the Twins is true and most scouts agree. The Twins have a lot of players who could crack the bigs, but have no obvious difference maker in the pipeline. The lack of exciting talent in the minors for the Twins isn't the big deal that it sounds like. The Twins just need to start feeding the organization on both ends again, chasing after both interesting MLB veterans and continuing to develop and acquire minor league players.
  6. Doomtints
    If some teams don't know how to manage a roster it's their own faults. All teams are dealt the same hand. Every manager would love an extra roster spot but this won't solve the problem. Every team would simply stash another pitcher on the roster and keep starving the position player side. As for the Twins platooning, if they don't do it they are simply being stubborn. They have a glut of C-level DH and 1B players who could become B-level players if platooned. With some luck, maybe they even get A- production out of somebody and can flip him for a more solid player later on. In the meantime, they could freely stock the rest of the bench with defensive specialists as they would always have a capable bat on the bench that is reasonably warmed up.
  7. Doomtints
    Once you get outside of the touristy areas, the poverty in DR has to be seen to be understood. Building this facility probably cost the organization very little, particularly since they are splitting the cost with another team. They probably spent about as much to build this as it would have cost to hire one or two employees in the front office. I don't see much called out by St. Peter or MacPhail about the conditions in DR in their speeches, which is surprising. A cynic would call this exploitation. But I'm holding out hope that the Twins mission here is to truly help the youth on the island who have few options available to them, to foster good citizenship rather than be used solely as a factory for talent. I hope the Twins take advantage of this opportunity to to a great thing. This gives the Twins a great avenue for sending staff and players from the MLB club to the DR once a year or so to do community projects. Building houses, immunization campaigns, digging wells, teaching a class, whatever. There is a lot of help that is needed. It also gives the local youth who might not be future baseball stars the avenue to contribute to building the infrastructure of their own country.
  8. Doomtints
    * shrug * Looks like a typical catcher of the era to me. The Twins only sent him packing because he was about to start getting paid.
  9. Doomtints
    I feel like Castro's addition will be a true test to see how much pitch framing makes a difference. Castro's bat might not be as bad as it looks, either.
  10. Doomtints
    The trains were running late in Chicago this morning, so this whole fascism thing is already not working out.
  11. Doomtints
    Castro's defense is terrible. More passed balls than Suzuki, more wild pitches allowed than Suzuki, also below league average at throwing out baserunners. And he hits worse than Suzuki too.
  12. Doomtints
    The Twins had a colossal losing streak near the end of the year. You can freely look at the roster later in the season for an accurate comparison.
  13. Doomtints
    Hughes has been a bit of a one trick pony. Toss heat right down Broadway and try to miss bats. This doesn't work after your heat loses a couple of ticks and was probably never going to work against teams facing off against a high powered Yankees offense. As for his contract extension, that's water under the bridge now, but I think a small majority of us were surprised by the move and did not think it was necessary or a good idea.
  14. Doomtints
    The defense will be similar, seeing as the roster (at least as of today) is nearly identical.
  15. Doomtints
    The Twins also lost talent in players who did not make it through 2016, either by trade or by injury. To only count the players they lost before the season started is only counting half of the lost inventory. They also "lost talent" not in the people sense, but in the production sense. Many players got worse. For example, Sano's stock was much higher 12 months ago than it is now.
  16. Doomtints
    That 83 win team lost talent between 2015 and 2016 and between 2016 and 2017. If the Twins still had that 2015 roster, sure, we can talk about flirting with 80 wins.
  17. Doomtints
    I ran some numbers over the course of the season last year. Baseruns v. Pythagorean v. a system I made. Baseruns and Pythagorean had roughly equal accuracy. What was the Pythagorean prediction for last year?
  18. Doomtints
    I'm surprised you would call my opinion negative when my opinion is that I think 70 wins is a reasonable expectation and you seem to think the same thing. My point was that if you are going to go to extremes (100 losses v. 80 wins), 100 losses is more likely.
  19. Doomtints
    Mauer's plate discipline is enviable and if the Twins are suggesting he change that at all, they are doing him a disservice. Mauer has had the same hitting profile for as long as we have spray chart data. What probably confounded defenses in the past is now obvious for everyone to see. His grounders almost all go between first and second, and his flyballs almost always go to LF. Before this data exposed him, it was felt that Mauer could hit the ball anywhere. Now defenses know they can simply shift when Joe is at the plate and keep his OBP right where it is now. If Mauer wants to break out of his funk, he needs to change his timing a bit, try to mash everything for a home run (which would probably hurt his legs over time), or start trying to line drives whenever he can.
  20. Doomtints
    That's a simple projection. Count how many times that was written whenever Buxton played well for 1-2 weeks.
  21. Doomtints
    Regardless of whether or not anyone thinks the 2016 Twins were worth 71 wins, they were still nowhere near that. "Some improvement" over their 2016 reality would be between 65 and 70 wins. 75-80 wins would require several player additions that did not happen. However, if anything, the pitching staff has taken several steps back since the general mood this time last year, as has the hitting. We need to understand that the Twins, so far, look like they could very well repeat their 100 loss season. If I were a betting man, I would put money down on them having 100 losses over them having 80 wins. High optimism could allow a prediction of around 70 wins, but that's about as much as is reasonable seeing as this is the same team as last year.
  22. Doomtints
    Masterfully written. 80 wins is a nice number to get people talking and debating and clicking. If you had said 90 wins, people would have just dismissed it without any debate. The Twins do not have the talent to be within shouting distance of .500. We all know it. Best case is that half of the question marks on the roster perform well next year, still leaving half a dozen holes on the roster where the players did not perform well enough. 70 wins would be a gigantic year-over-year swing. With the Twins not making many roster changes so far, 80 is out of the question.
  23. Doomtints
    Yeah. Question marks at nearly every pitching slot isn't a position any team wants to be in. Gonsalves is probably going to be good but I would be shocked to see him ready this year. But at the same time I would be shocked to see many of the other pitches you listed ready to pitch next year either -- nevertheless they will be on the mound.
  24. Doomtints
    We will find out shortly if the surgery he had can correct an otherwise unexplained 2-3 MPH velocity drop. I'm skeptical.
  25. Doomtints
    Mauer's production (and in this case, I mean WAR) is predicted to dip 40% from 2016 levels in 2017. It is expected to dip 50% from 2016 levels in 2018. His 2019 numbers are then expected to rise a bit, but still predicted to be roughly 35% below 2016 levels. However, if the first two are true I would think that he would not be playing in 2019. He needs to have this bump a year earlier if he wants to keep playing. His 2020 prediction is not quite nil but very close, so he's not expected to be around for the most part.
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