tobi0040

I know what you mean now.

When we started I did not realize it was a tongue and cheeck comment. I also don't think we should trade the guy.

I guess I thought "four years of full time pro ball" and "four full MLB years" were the same thing.

I am the one that brought up the HOF, because his nickname and a poster made a comp to David Ortiz. I guess I don't see how a comp to a guy that is going to the hall of fame is not a reference to Vargas potentially being a HOF player. The career arc discussion is fairly vague. All you have to do is find a HOF player that did not rip up the minors and compare them to a guy in the minors not doing that well. just my pet peeve about comparisons.

I was talking about his nickname little papi or whatever it is. and replying to the comment that we should not trade David Ortiz for the second time (which was a reference to the comparison). I just think we should cool it on the comp to a HOF player. That's all, back to the topic...

Vargas made his debut on his 24th birthday. Ages 21-23, Oritz had a total of 400 at bats at the big league level. 15 games as a 21 year old, 86 as a 22 year old, and 10 as a 23 year old. I will concede he was farther along the development curve that Vargas, but that is a far cry from four full MLB years. I am not saying Vargas does not have potential. I am not saying he won't exceed his MILB production. I am actually optimistic about the kid. My point is we should not compare him to a hall of fame player because of those things. I think we tend to do this based on appearance often times.

Sure a AAAA player will want to hold onto his spot and collect as many checks and hope to breakthrough and earn another contract. Other teams have guys that don't tell their coaches about injuries as well. I drafted Tony Cingrani last year in my fantasy league. He was awful for about 6-7 starts and then told the coach he was pitching hurt. It happens all over. However, I think it is a completely fair thing to say that nobody has ever described Joe Mauer as tough, gritty,or hard nosed. Part of that is the contract. Concussions are un-avoidable. To this day, nobody really knows what bi-lateral leg weakness is. But I completely agree that Souhan and Ruesse are around the club house and probably hear whispers or get the reaction on guys faces when they are asked about Mauer. Is anyone really going to come out and say what they think? Probably not. So i will at least be open to the idea that a grain of truth exists to the notion that Mauer takes days off where guys, say Cal Ripkin would not. Or even Robinson Cano, the guy has missed about a game a year from 2007 to 2014. Regarding the missing games for bruises....I googled "Joe Mauer and bruise" and quickly found four instances since 2010 where he has missed time with bruises. I only looked on the first two pages. There could be more. I also think he had a shin issue at one point, stiff back a few times, etc. Bruised Heel 5 days http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5155712 Bruised Thumb 5 days http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8013790/minnesota-twins-joe-mauer-sidelined-bruised-thumb Bruised elbow Missed 8 innings one day and next game http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2014/09/23/twins-1b-mauer-leaves-with-bruised-right-elbow/ Bruised thigh 4 days http://www.twincities.com/ci_20910974/minnesota-twins-joe-mauer-sits-again-bruised-thigh

I am not diminishing Vargas's power potential, I am just saying Ortiz had better numbers in the minors. No doubt my timeline was off. But Vargas had a high of 19 HR a year, Ortiz had 30 or more twice. I am simply suggesting that Vargas "little papi" or whatever it is, is more body type related than that he is a future HOF player. The media gets carried away with these comps, especially based on appearance.

I started from Ortiz's minor league numbers. Didn't notice the 15 games as a 21 year old that were missing and I wrongly assumed he was hurt and that is why he only had 80 games in the minors as a 22 year old. His first full season was as a 23 year old.

I think you definitely field calls. The FA market at SS is very weak....when you back out guys on this list that aren't SS anymore it is even weaker. http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2014/10/mlb_free_agent_class_2015_shor.html

I would not trade Vargas, but I don't really get the Ortiz/Vargas comp. I think folks compare body types and then think production should also be the same. Heck, many fans at Target field have the same body type as Vargas. Both came up at 23 years old. Ortiz had a .309/.381/.532 line in the minors. In his last two full seasons he hit 31 and 30 HR a year. Vargas produced this line in the minors .288/.367/.486. He never hit more than 19 HR a year. Ortiz had the better OPS in their rookie years as well, .817 to .772. I guess this a pet peeve of mine. You watch the MLB draft and every time a tall, lankly left hander that goes in the first round you hear "reminds me of Clayton Kershaw"

Your suspicion has some support in their BABIP numbers from last year. Santana was at .406 and Escobar .336.

I am not a huge fan of Masterson. Over the last four years he has been really good in two years and really bad in the other two. You don't want to go multi-year on a guy like that. I am assuming you favor a one year deal....I just don't think it makes sense. He is still going to cost $10M or something like that. -If he has a really good year, he leaves and does not help this team when we are good again. Even if he has a good year, I would not want to extend him. -If he has a really bad year, we don't want him.

I am assuming we can go up to $115M if we are winning again. The only other players that should be expensive in the next three years are Hughes and Dozier. All these deals except probably Mauer come off the books when Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Gibson, etc. would theoretically start getting expensive. So the timing seems to work out well.

I agree with 1-3. A few ST innings in LF is fine with me, but I leave Plouffe at 3B until Sano proves he can handle it. I think if Plouffe has another 3-4 good months at 3B his trade value is higher than if he goes out to LF and struggles, which he would likely do right away. Exploring a trade for Plouffe has to be one option IF Sano can stick at 3B.

Yes, Yes, Yes. The Twins need to decide what direction to go in. The best move in my opinion is for Hicks to get OF reps and Santana to get SS reps. This is the best move for the 2016 Twins and I would argue the best move for the August 2015 Twins. We don't need Pinto at DH, Santana in CF, and Hicks as our 4th OF. It may help us in April but does anyone think this team is making a run this year?

Torii was always my favorite twin. But he will be 40 next year and vargas needs reps at dh. Torii would be par for the course defensively in the outfield.

Turns out I was off a bit. No way should Nunez or Fien be back. Using these numbers and only bringing back only Schafer, Milone, Plouffe, and Escobar from the tender portion I think you get close to $95M. Seems reasonable to me given a few things. None of these are long term contracts. We are going to start to get production from guys making $500K. And next year you lose Pelfey's $6M, replace Milone and Schafer with guys making $500K, and potentially trade Plouffe and replace him at 3B with Sano making $500K. http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/8/4/5966571/a-first-look-at-the-twins-2015-payroll-and-roster

Here is my off-season plan. What am I trying to accomplish? -Being realistic with payroll, both on dollars and years -Improve the team this year and in the near future -Keep key positions open for guys like Sano and Buxton, and allow young pitchers to emerge. -Address our real needs of OF defense and starting pitching Starting Rotation The Twins ranked second to last in starting ERA last year, behind only the Rockies who play a mile in the air. That is not good. While it is tempting for the Twins to pencil in Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Meyer, and May for next season and stand pat, I think that would be a huge mistake. This group needs to add more talent. On top of that, someone will get hurt or be ineffective next year. You just can’t pencil in five guys and hope nothing bad happens. If the worst thing that can happen is you create a healthy competition for the 5th spot or push a guy like May to the pen for awhile, that is OK with me. Let’s face it, the Twins are NOT signing Scherzer, Lester, or Shields. There are some tempting trade opportunities out there like Cole Hamels. But I think it would be a mistake for the Twins to move prospects for a guy making $20M+ a year. Right now we have payroll flexibility and young prospects, we don’t need to blow both on one roster spot. I think any other name out there does not make a ton of sense for the Twins. We don’t need more Correia’s, Worley’s, or Pelfrey’s. If we are going to give up starts next year, give them up to a guy that is a clear upgrade and more than a one year proposition. Verdict: Sign Ervin Santana to a 3 year, $45M deal with a team option for a 4th year and a buyout. I would probably be okay with the 4th year that vests based on 180+ plus innings a year for the three years. Ervin has been a workhorse, averaging 207 innings a year over the last five years. Outside of the poor 2012 in which he had an ERA of 5.16, his ERA has been consistently good 3.92, 3.38, 3.24, and 3.95. In my view he would be our second best pitcher behind Phil Hughes. Outfield: Our OF defense last year was a complete disaster and we had a debacle in CF all year. Josh Willingham is gone and my guess is Oswaldo Arcia is handed a corner spot and he probably should. He ended last year with an OPS of .750, 20 HR’s in 100 games, (4th in OPS on the team) while proving to be a liability defensively (annualized -2.4 dWAR). Other guys in the mix are Hicks, and potentially later in the year Buxton and Rosario. I view Jordan Schafer as a 4th OF. What the Twins should NOT do is sign a guy that may hit a bit and play poor defense, I am thinking Torii Hunter, Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis. Let’s let another team make that mistake and fix our actual need. Verdict: Sign Colby Rasmus to a 3 year deal for $36M (yahoo projected salary). This signing does a few things. Colby has played almost all of his career games in center and has a positive dWAR of 2.4 over his career. He could start in CF and move to a corner when Buxton arrives. I would expect he would provide plus defense in a corner, which would be a huge upgrade from last year. If we have a bunch of OF prospects turn out in two years, Rasmus has a career OPS of .788 against righties, which would make him a very ideal platoon guy (albeit an expenseive one that one year). I believe this move would stabilize both the offense and defense. He does have an appealing bat as well. He has a career .751 OPS and has averaged 21 HR and 22.5 2B a year over the last three years (while missing about 90 games over that stretch). He had a very good year in 2013, with 22 HR and an OPS of .840. His OBP and K numbers are not good, but he is still 28 and I think the what he provides defensively is going to make this a good signing. Infield, Pen, and DH I think the move is to stand pat. Paul Molitor has said he is going to play Danny Santana at short stop. He should be given every chance there. You have Suzuki, Dozier, Mauer, and Plouffe rounding out the infield and Escobar as the utility guy. Pinto should be given a shot to prove himself as a backup catcher getting 60 games. If Molitor concludes that Pinto is not a catcher, he should be traded for a team that has not concluded that and we should sign a backup catcher. Vargas should be handed DH and told to smack the ball around. Our pen is loaded with young guys that should be given a shot, like Burdi, Reed, and Tonkin. No need to spend there or block these guys. I am guessing these two signings bring payroll to about $85M and improve the team. What do you think?

On another thread, I put up Arcia's numbers and Torii's numbers....Very comparable on offense and defensive, according to baseball reference. Given that Arcia is young and could improve versus 39 years old, tying up $10M on Hunter makes no sense to me. Our needs are starting pitching and OF defense. If we want his leadership, make him a coach in two years.

Molitor said he will play Santana at short. He is one for one in my book.

On another note, in the Star Trib article announcing Molitor as the new coach, I was caught off-guard by the inclusion of drug use from 30 years ago....It seemed totally unneccesary to me and lacking class. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/279631372.html

I can't prove it was rigged. But the facts are many in the media and on these boards believe it to be the case. I do as well. But I thought I was clear in saying that part was speculation. From a PR perspective, I have to disagree with this statement though: "If they absolutely knew they wanted to give him the job, they would have long before this." After 360+ losses in four years and season ticket holders not renewing in droves, I really think it would have been terrible optics for the Twins to just hand the job to an internal candidate without the appearance of externals having a shot. I think Dave St. Peter and Pohlad realize this.

Yeah. Detriot is not really a model. Their owner is cut from a different cloth. He won't be here in seven years and wants to win a world series and could care less about finances. What is a $20-$30M loss to a guy worth a few billion dollars? It is a different viewpoint. Very few, if any owners have that perspective.

We can say this. The guy that many thought would get the job got the job. The guy who didn't get the job thought it was rigged. Some writers, like some people on this site thought the process was a dog and pony show. These are facts. I buy into that it was rigged and I also believe Terry would not have been allowed to hire Molitor on day one even if he wanted to. That is speculation.