tobi0040

I have accepted the fact that the Twins will never be on the cutting edge. Whether that be analysis, shifting, SABR, platooning, etc. Nothing I have seen over the last ten years suggests they are even within 10 years of the cutting edge. Teams were shifting Bonds and others in the early 2000's. The A's, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. were hiring Ivy League MBA and statisticians in their front office in the early 2000's. Platooning was happening a 100 years ago. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platoon_system The Twins will show up to the race with a horse they got a good deal on, only to be beaten by the first Model T. Ten years later they will conclude they need to buy a car. So they will go out and buy the model T that beat their horse in a race 10 years ago.

True, but the stats on the link are at the same age.

At this point the best barameter is what they did in the same league at the same age. You can see that Abreeu and Tomas should not be compared to one another. 3x the HR. 2.5x the BB. 30% more 2B. 100 more points on the batting average. The other site I can't find right now showed the OPS comp. Off memory Abreau was in the 1.25 or 1.30 range and Tomas was in the .850 range. In one of the three seasons Abreau had an OPS of 1.45. Tomas does not draw a favorable comp to Cespedes, who in my opinion is wildly overrated. The guy is a .750 OPS type corner OF. Which is about league average. Tomas vs. Cespedes vs. Abreu (Ages 21-23) Years G AB AVG R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K Tomas 2012-2014 229 779 .293 119 48 6 31 145 71 155 Abreu 2008-2010 252 845 .392 236 64 4 86 243 159 161 Cespedes 2007-2009 261 1036 .309 252 54 6 72 221 117 135 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2115336-how-hyped-defector-yasmani-tomas-compares-to-recent-cuban-phenoms This sums it up for me, from Keith Law: However, the fact that Tomas' numbers in Cuba weren’t as impressive as Abreu, Cespedes or Puig’s doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t receive a big payday once eligible to sign. According to Law, “Tomas might get paid like Jose Abreu or Yasiel Puig, but he’s not in their class as a prospect, and if paid similarly, he would be benefiting from how successful Abreu and Puig have been.”

Yeah, I think what may happen is everyone will want to get the next Abreau, except Tomas is not as good. So Tomas is going to get the contract that Abreau should have received and vice versa. If you go and look at their numbers in Cuba, you could not put up Abreau's on a video game set on rookie level. Tomas's numbers don't jump out as incredible. The other thing, when an unknown guy (from Japan or Cuba) comes into the league they tend to regress after their first or second year as tape and tendencies get known. Cespedes had a great first year. I think his OPS was in the .850-.900 range. Then he has basically been a .750 OPS guy the next two years. Hideo Nomo went from Cy Young caliber to a bum. As did Dice-K. Yu has been an exception in his three years. I would expect Abreau to regress from his .964 OPS and 36 HR. But Tomas is going to be compensated based on Abreau's .964.

If the scouts are right (nowhere near the hitter Abreau is, low OBP, and poor defense), I think the "winner" may end up being a loser here. Especially if the 6-100 people are expecting is the contract doled out. At $15M a year.....what type of a player does he have to be in order to exceed that contract? Matt Holiday signed 7-120. A known commodity, track record of sucess in the league, career .908 OPS. And this guy is going to be handed that? I think this Cuban market is turning into a bubble.

Hicks was adament before the MLB draft that he would not pitch. Many thought he would have gone earlier if he wanted to pitch. But the Twins only really had a shot at him as an OF. Now maybe if he is 25-26 and can't find a job that will change. But my gut tells me if he makes the switch it would be after the Twins cut him and he can't find work as an OF (when it is clear to him he can either make $500K a year as a reliever or find work in the private sector for slightly less pay)

3 years and 25-30m for Brett Anderson? IP by Year 2009 175 IP 2010 112 IP 2011 83 IP 2012 35 IP 2013 44 IP 2014 43 IP

The good news is we reached out to Torii Hunter on the first day. So our priorities are in order. SARCASM

It is hard to argue here. Signing one guy better than what you have. Then forcing a competition is always a good thing.

The Cards have done a really good job building from within, drafting and developing. That is without question. I don't know if they have avoided free agency "at all costs" though. They certainly have been willing to dole out the types of contracts that are doled out in free agency. The types of contracts that get teams in trouble. Whether that be in free agency or extending their own players is really not a big difference. For example: They had 10 years and $210M on the table for a 31 year old Albert Pujols. They then turned around and give a 30 year old Holiday 7 years and $120M. They extended Wainwright fives years for 97M, ages 32-37 They signed Peralta on the FA market at age 31, 4 years and $53M after he was tied to PED's They certainly were lucky someone outbid them for Pujols. They still owe Wainwright $80M over the next four years and he is 33. This is a guy that had TJ in 2011 and then has pitched 666 innings in the following three years.

I would take that over nothing, just for depth. But it would be a let down if we don't pursue Rasmus and/or options in the trade market.

I think Rasmus will have about 10 teams offering him a one year deal. So I think a team option is out of the question. I would not be shocked if he ends up signing a 1 year deal with someone where the contract stipulates the team can't offer him arbitration at the end of the year. I have not read he is a head case, is that true?

I think a rock and hard place does not do them justice. On another thread, someone said their best prospect is in the mold of Walker/Kepler. The 2018 Tigers have $75M committed to a 39 year old Victor Martinez, 36 year old Cabrera, and 35 year old Verlander. That jumps to over $100M with a 34-35 year old Scherzer if they re-sign him.

It is a shame the issues with Buxton and Rosario last year. Now the Twins have a weak OF again this year and probably sign a mid 30's stopgap for one year.

I guess the issue with standing pat is you start the year with an OF of Hicks, Arcia, Schafer, and probably Danny Ortiz. Rosario and Buxton probably start the year in AA and both need a ton of reps given last year. What happens if Arcia blows his knee out? Yikes. I would love Rasmus or someone via trade. But I think Terry signs a guy in his 30's on a one year deal like Morgan.

I see a ton of similarities between Rasmus now and Hughes last season. Both were first round picks. Both were top prospects (Hughes got up to 4 I believe. Rasmus was 10 in 2007). Both came up young. Hughes at 20 and Rasmus at 22. Both showed flashes of being really good. Hughes had a 3.03 and 4.19 era at 23 and 24 with good k rates Rasmus had an ops of 859 as a 23 year old. He has had an ops plus over 100 in four seasons. His ISO was better than Miguel Carreras last year. His 162 game average is 24 hr and 29 2b Both accumulated mlb average type numbers by the time they hit FA, despite being young (4.50 era for Hughes and 751 ops for Rasmus). Yet both were dismissed by their teams as busts and let test free agency I would pursue the same type of deal that we gave Hughes but he would likely cost more money than $8M a year. So 3-30 or 3-33 or so. If he would rather do the make good one year thing, I would give him that. Maybe you extend him mid season if he plays well or at minimum get a pick if he gets the huge deal he may be looking for next off-season. In the meantime I think he produces more than any others on this list, stabilizes our OF defense, and gives you a ton of upside like Hughes did.

This is just my speculation, but I think the Twins may hand Hicks CF or LF from April to the end of June. One last look to see if he takes a step forward. If not they cut the cord or hopefully make him a 4th OF/platoon in a corner. (.750 OPS against lefties). I say that because he is former first round pick they have invested a ton in and really looked promising at one point.

This is a good article on Rasmus, very detailed. They speculate he either goes 1-10 to rebuild value, or it would take at least $10M a year over three years if he went longer term. I am guessing he has little interest in 3-30 because he has a shot at 4-5 years and $15-18M a year next off-season if his 2015 looks like his 2013. The bad news is he is really the only CF on the market. So my guess is he has very little interest in signing to play a corner. The CF market will be weak again next year as well....the one year deal may be appealing to him. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/free-agent-profile-colby-rasmus.html

It would be nicer to have a congestion of good pitchers. That is my issue with this list.

I think the lower you go down on that list, the closer the production will be to Eddie Rosario. Aoki for example had a .726 OPS in 2013 and .710 in 2014. He will be 33. I am guessing at least defensively Eddie Rosario would be better. He is a 23 year old that would be a CF in almost every other system out there. He has to play LF better than Aoki. I view Rosario's potential as a better bat than an OPS in the low 700's. Last year was really a throw away for Eddie, before anyone quotes his .672 OPS in AA. Looking at his history in the 800-900 range, making the PR WBC team as a 21 year old, etc.

My first choice would be Rasmus on a 2-3 year deal. Keep him in CF now and stablize the position, then move him to a corner when Buxton arrives. Career .751 OPS, good defender, still young. Not going to break the bank. The nice thing is it would move HIcks to a corner now, where he will need to be if he has a future here. The issue is whether or not he would do the deal knowing he would go to a corner. If he wants to prove his worth, he may want to do it in CF and hit it big as a center fielder. So the only shot there may be a one year deal. Outside of him, I didn't realize Rios is a good defender still. His dWAR on baseball reference tells a different story, -2 over the last three years. But that is the issue with these metrics, our scouting department will probably have to look at tape. I do have to say that the concerning thing to me is that we allegedly reached out to Torii Hunter. So the Twins may not be on the same page with needing a defensive upgrade in the OF.

I disagree that Hughes would not meet the description. outside of yankee stadium he was pretty consistent, an ERA just over 4.00. Much better than Nolasco's 4.37. He was healthy, he was young, he had good stuff, he was a former top prospect. The Yankee stadium part was being removed from the equation. I think we should talk through what we are disagreeing about. I am not adamently against adding a pitcher. Just not one from that list. If we want to sign one of the top four free agents or explore a trade that is great. I just would rather see Meyer and May start in the rotation over a guy like Brett Anderson, or Villaneuva. The overwhelming likelihood of most of those guys is that they will continue to stink or be hurt here, while taking innings from someone. I don't view any as a candidate for extension even if they pitched well given their track record.

It is hard for me to see a scenario where Hughes or Nolasco are pulled from the rotaiton next year. Gibson maybe but I am guessing he has a very long leash. I also think he turned the corner. I am not saying they all come up and have a sub 4.00 ERA, but I think they will get a significant amount of innings even if they don't have an ERA near that. May was shelled in about 2-3 starts, but his numbers at AAA were on different planets than his 10 starts or whatever it was up here. Milone does have a career ERA under 4.00 and I think Terry will want him to get innings for a look. Meyer is frankly more talented than all the others except maybe Hughes. He is also 25-26 years old. We may disagree on this one, but Terry may start the season with Pelfrey in hopes of salvaging that terrible contract. I can't rule it out. I am all for adding a very good starter via trade or signing if he is healthy, consistent, and has #2 starter potential. I don't see any on that list.

In fairness, you are leaving out another one year deal. He put up a 5.19 ERA and pitched 152 innings, then netted himself a 2 year extension.

We are not winning the world series in 2015. My preference is either add a guy that is for sure better than the five we have (only four FA qualify for me)...or give innings to young players and let them develop. As far as I am concerned, the list presented are a bunch of guys with warts. A one year deal for a guy that I would not want to exend even if they had a good year just is not the proper risk/reward. Best case you flip them but they are taking innings from a potential future fixture in the process. If Anderson or Masterson pitch a good 180 innigs for us next year, I don't want to see us hand out a 3-4 year extension north of $12M for a guy with the histories they have.