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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    On that Cot's site, they didn't have Dunn listed to get to the $90M because he was traded to Oakland. I only looked at the top 7-8 paid guys and because I am lazy didn't look much below that. The broader point remains. Would anyone trade franchises with them right now? If not, we probably should not get too worked up.
  2. tobi0040
    $90M last year + $39M that they have added already would get me to $129M. That is more than their highest payroll of all time, which was in 2012 of $127M. I don't ever see them as being a $170-200M payroll team. So this team plus another $10-15M in payroll does not look like a world series champion to me. Nor are they investing in young players. The Twins start with say $70-75M in 2016 (lose Hunter and Pelf). We have Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Berrios (among others) and could theoretically add another $40-50M......we are going to be OK boys and girls. I would honestly not trade franchises this second if I wanted to build a contender. Which position would you guys rather be in over the next five years?
  3. tobi0040
    I question if these are the types of moves you can easily bounce back from. They may hand Jeff S. $20M a year over 5-6 years. Paying $17M a year for a set up guy and closer are not moves you can rid yourself of easily if they go sour. And $25M for LaRoche could be deadweight come May 1. Last year they fielded a 73 win team for 90M. They don't lose any large contracts. They add $39M from what I can tell with Jeff S. (10M). LaRoche (12M). The two relievers (17M). They may rip up jeff's deal and double his pay. I would guess Sale, Danks, and Abreu's deals increase next year among others. I think we need to take a deep breathe here. The $140M team they will field next year looks to me as not quite a perennial contender. They were 15-20th in offense and 28th or so in defense. Not sure you go all in after adding basically three pitchers, two of which are relievers and frankly a below average 1b/dh addition.
  4. tobi0040
    I agree....look at the four moves in isolation. -Traded for a 30 year old closer and gave him $46M over four years, giving a 2nd round pick in the process (a low second round pick to boot). -Spent $25M over two years for a 35 year old 1B/DH type that has a career OPS of .811. Career OBP is .340, coming off a career high .362 -Traded 3 young players/prospects for a 30 year old pitcher that is one year away from a large payday. Truly a buy high move. The next move is probably to throw $100M at him, basically been good for two or three years. Career numbers are rather pedestrian (ERA + of 101). -Signed a set up guy for $5M dollars a year for three years. Coming off a great year. Basically has not been good since he was a rookie in 2006 (prior to this year). 4.46 career ERA. These are not the type of moves that sustain winning over any length of time. Each has a ton of risk. Classic White Sox. I get the feeling of feeling left out. But over time I think we should be glad we don't make these type of moves.
  5. tobi0040
    Yes, they are still the White Sox. They don't care about defense and have historically not cared much for OBP. I think the Jeff S. move has a ton of risk and I will never support a $50M dollar closer. It won't get headlines, but on top of the $50M they gave Robertson, they gave up a second round pick. The Twins used their second round pick on a guy that will probably close for 4-6 years here and will make about $15M over that stretch doing so.
  6. tobi0040
    We should also mention that the White Sox were horrible defensively last year, which is a theme most have been very critical about the Twins for. Fangraphs has them below the Twins actually, and they have only added Laroche, who is not a good defender no matter where they play him at 35. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
  7. tobi0040
    LaRoche had a dWAR of -1 last year. -9.6 so far in his career. My point on the regression for Abreau is they won 73 games and will get regression from their best hitter. An .850-.875 is a huge decline from last year...so they have moving pieces here in both directions.
  8. tobi0040
    I wonder what the sentiment would have been in 2009. They ripped up their system for Jake Peavy and signed Colon. Then they won 79 games.
  9. tobi0040
    Cespedes had an OPS of .861 in the first year. .737 and .751 the next two. Puig's OPS went from .925 to .863. When the tape is out on these guys they regress. That regression will hurt the White Sox way more than a 35 year old Adam Larcoche (career .811 OPS). He is a bad defender too, not sure if they will DH him.
  10. tobi0040
    Not a bad thing. But they will have the same production out of the closer. So I am not adding any wins here, certainly not multiple wins.
  11. tobi0040
    The Sox won 73 games last year with two primary closers. One with an ERA of 1.96 and the other 2.96 (Putnam and Petricka). Both better than Robertson's 3.08. Even if Jeff S. has a year like the last two, how are they going to win 88 games? I expect regression out of Abreu as well.
  12. tobi0040
    I think that is a big assumption. I guess my point is, why not just sign Lester, Scherzer, or Shields? All have better career numbers and you keep the prospects. They either get Jeff S. for one year or they sign him to a deal that is a huge risk IMO. He has been good for 2-3 years tops. All in the NL for the most part. With an ERA + that is 1% better than league average. And we don't know who the other prospect is. Their system is not ranked that great, but their top five is not shabby. Rodon is 1. They have a young SS at 2 that had an OPS over .800 in three league last year (17th pick in 2013). #3 is a starter that throws 100 and had an ERA of 1.44 last year. #5 is their first rounder in 2012 with some power.
  13. tobi0040
    It is frustrating to see people within the division being aggressive while the Twins and being linked to guys that will be in Rochester, at best. But neither one of these moves in isolation worry me too much. Frankly, I would not be happy if the Twins made either move. They gave up Semien, who is a 24 year old the A's are going to play at SS. He had an OPS of .881 in AAA last year with 15 HR in just 81 games. Bassitt has a sub 3.00 ERA in the minors with a k rate of 8.6. We don't know who the third prospect is yet, guessing it is a top 5 guy. All for a guy with a career ERA + of 101 on a one year deal.Career ERA of 3.99 almost all in the NL. He is 30 and will probably be handed an extension in excess of $100M Robertson is a 30 year old closer they just gave $50M to and they also lose a 2nd round pick.
  14. tobi0040
    Oh snap.
  15. tobi0040
    You would wonder why they would do that. CJ Wilson has way more upside. Career ERA + of 112 versus 91.
  16. tobi0040
    I will first say that the predictions are often wrong. Think Stephen Drew, Ervin Santana a few years in a row now. But I heard a price tag of 3 and $40M for Liriano somewhere. With the Pirates balking at a 4th year. No reason to give Liriano anything like that.
  17. tobi0040
    I don't really want Liriano back. But could you imagine these boards if he came back here and stunk again?
  18. tobi0040
    None of these guys are a lock to put up better numbers than May or Meyer. And they are not consistent and/or healthy to hand a long term contract if they have a good year. I see a lose-lose. Get a clear upgrade or let the young kids play. Sure, it is possible that we could get a good outcome. The guys pitch well and are flipped, or we get a pick when they leave. But that potential outcome is not worth seeing May or Meyer in AAA. They are 25 now.
  19. tobi0040
    I don't think you give a guy 4-35 or 5-48 when it is unclear where he plays as early as this June. Especially since we don't have to make that decision before we have a much clearer picture.
  20. tobi0040
    We do have one documented time where Puckett offered Hunter money out of his "fat wallet"
  21. tobi0040
    Vargas looks like a left tackle and will only get bigger as he ages. He has no defense to learn....his job is to hit and hit only. In 2012 he has an OPS of 1.030. In 2013 he has an OPS of .813. In 2014 he had an OPS of .832 at AA, with 17 HR's in 97 games at AA and the Twins decided he was probably ready. He responded by putting up an OPS of .772 and hitting 9 HR in 52 games. A pace of 28 for a full year at the big league level as a 23 year old (162 games). He was second on the team in OPS. I can't say he won't ever need to go to AAA and refine something, but I think he needs to give the Twins a reason for a demotion.
  22. tobi0040
    I agree in concept. But the Twins are not going to owe a guy $38M over three years and give Trevor May his job if he has a better spring training.
  23. tobi0040
    Crap.
  24. tobi0040
    I agree, but I don't think Ervin is in that group. I think we want a one year deal and my gut says he gets more. I could be wrong though, would have thought that last off-season.
  25. tobi0040
    My understanding is the human element in UZR would not have Twins representation, or it would be very limited. I could be wrong though. On a related note, my five year old daughter said I am the best daddy in the world.
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