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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I would argue Sano will be that star. But you can win a championship without a star. If you have 3-5 guys that could have a WAR in the 2.5 to 5 range you can have a good team. Dozier, Plouffe, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, and even a slight bounce back from Mauer could be in that range.
  2. tobi0040
    I completely agree. But teams have long overpaid "closers" and underpaid the set up guys with similar numbers. As well as incented this behavior further by tying bonuses to "saves" and "games ended" On Glen's last contract, he received a 100k bonus for this 40th, 45th, and 50th game that he finished (each). Then had 150k kickers at 55 and 60. And his base salary the next year went up by half of the bonuses he earned in 2013. So a guy like that has every reason to keep a grip on the closer role. http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24072466/minnesota-twins-glen-perkins-keeps-adding-bonuses
  3. tobi0040
    Bill James has been writing about this since the late 80's. Evidence shows that the only thing that has changed with the closer role is the amount of money paid to the "closers". The amount of blown leads has remained about constant. James showed that it is a better idea to use your best reliever in a 7th or 8th inning tie than a 9th inning game where you are up two or three runs. Also, they should be able to pitch more than one inning. Saving your closer for the 9th also takes away the righty-righty and lefty-lefty matchups away from your best reliever. They get whoever happens to be coming up in the 9th. What happens if you have 2-3 righties in the 9th and 2-3 lefties in the 8th?
  4. tobi0040
    Whether Boston or Oakland had departments or people working on projects, they were using data to make decisions in ways that the Twins were not. Rob Anthony did say in 2012 said the twins "were one of the last, if not the last team to address statistical analysis with a person dedicated solely to that" Additionally, a team can have a department but if the manager is not a believer, then it doesn't really matter. At least not the in game strategy portion such as defensive shifting. In 2003, Gardy was quoted as saying "numbers lie and I have a hard time believing all these stats. When a scout shows me the stats I show them the door". For example, I am guessing your team was pounding the table on the benefits of defensive shifting, but the twins were 26th in 2014. I am very happy that changed last year with Molitor.
  5. tobi0040
    This kind of reminds me in movies when someone is talking about someone and they are standing behind them and listening! But to your question, I can only go off of the information that I have access to. So I don't know what you are working on or what other teams are. I am only privvy to what I see in media reports and hear when our GM speaks. Based on the Beradino article I linked to earlier in the thread, he said you founded the analytics department in 2009. If that is accurate, the Twins were behind the curve in terms of years. Oakland was in the late 90's, Boston was purchased by an algorithmic trader in 2002 who immediately put an analytic stamp on that team. Our current GM and manager until a year ago have always sounded skeptical towards SABR metrics. That has been well documented. The last thing I have to go off is a ranking that ESPN did where they ranked all the teams in baseball based on their use of analysis. They ranked the Twins 3rd lowest in the league, noting the skepticism from Ryan and Gardy. With that I would be more than happy to get your take on how the Twins have been characterized on this topic and whether it is fair or not. It would be very interesting to me http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings
  6. tobi0040
    I don’t have time to really do the research. So here is a snapshot with five minutes of research. I would also suggest asking the guy how his department fares to his competition is probably not the best way to compare. -Bill James started writing about SABR metrics in the early 80’s. He was hired by Boston in 2003. -The book Moneyball was written in 2003, highlighting Oakland’s use of metrics in the late 90’s. -Goin founded the analytics department in 2009. Like many of the other folks in the Twins front office, he worked his way up from completely unrelated areas of the business (in this case ticket sales). -Please start reading about the backgrounds of the folks in the Houston, St. Louis, Boston, Dodgers, Cubs, and other front offices and compare them with Jack Goin. http://www.twincities.com/ci_23098690/minnesota-twins-join-moneyball-era-behind-mystery-man
  7. tobi0040
    Just out of curiousity,how do you think the Twins quant staff ranks relative to the rest of the league? Best I can tell, we were 10-15 years behind the curve on this one and some of the folks in other teams departments are on another level in terms of size and pedigree.
  8. tobi0040
    In fairness, a guy that has 11 K per 9 may be more wild than one with about 6.
  9. tobi0040
    Translation. Bastardo is not on our team so the walks are a concern. We traded for Jepsen so they are not a concern. I just wish the Twins would factor in everything, BB per 9 along side k per 9, and hits per 9. It seems to me that walks are not as big of a concern with a guy that can strike guys out.
  10. tobi0040
    Completely agree. Any time you can add a guy that is better than most of what you have....and it wont be a financially crippling signing, then they have my blessing (which is utterly worthless of course)
  11. tobi0040
    Nolasco not on the team >>>>> Anything else
  12. tobi0040
    I just think if it is iffy that he sticks at 3B at 22, moving him to the OF for 1-2 years is going to make it difficult to move him back If we can't get anything of value for Plouffe, he should play 3B 30 times, 1B 20-30 times, and the OF a bit. We should at least attempt keeping a 35-40 HR bat at 3B
  13. tobi0040
    I could see this argument in 2012 or 2013. Give the young guys a run way in a year in which we had no shot at the AL central. Right now I think we do have a shot so why not make a meager short term investment in an area of need? We still have 2-3 spots there for the taking for young guys.
  14. tobi0040
    Yeah, but I heard we are considering up to $6M on a 1 year deal for Cespedes. Saying we should not go after him because 3-18 is too much is a bit of a straw man because I don't think he gets a 3 year deal, or $6M a year. I am guessing he either takes a 1 year $7-8M deal or 2-12. In other words, a potential difference maker in the pen for the equivalent of what we have paid Pelfrey the last three years. Or twice what we have paid Duensing or will pay Fein. None of which are difference makers. I see a pen where the coach trusts 2-3 people for the first three months of the year and then they get hurt or inneffective the rest of the year.
  15. tobi0040
    Plouffe is here another year or two max. I am calculating the next 10-15 years for Sano as a DH vs. a 3B. I think if we move him off 3B now, that is likely where he will be the rest of his career. In 2012, Plouffe (3B) had an OPS+ of 106 in 119 games and had an oWAR of 2. Adam Dunn (DH) had an OPS+ of 114 in 150 games and had an oWAR of 2.
  16. tobi0040
    True, but in response to keeping him I would argue the best way forward may be to use Plouffe as a super utility guy, rather than moving Sano to the OF. It sounds like it was questionable to begin with if Sano could stick at 3B but the Twins seemed nothing but confident that he could. I fear moving him to the OF now means he will never be moved back to 3B. He could be an OF for 1-2 years, then a DH for the next 15. Holding Plouffe for an extra year or two could literally erode 20+ WAR from Sano's career if that is the case (versus him at 3B) At the very least, keeping Plouffe was a possiblity all along. We get an F for not giving Sano some reps in the OF in meaningless minor league games.
  17. tobi0040
    I agree with everything here, except I don't see a scenario where Sano is in the infield and Plouffe is still on the team, unless you have an extended injury from Mauer or Sano. I think Park's $14M locks him in at DH and if he is outmatched, we would probably be better off with Arcia at DH than Plouffe. We can draw up a few intriguing platoon situations with Plouffe still around, but I don't see the Twins taking any material amounts of at bats from Sano, Mauer, or Park (not from Park right away)
  18. tobi0040
    I start from a premise that we have a trade lined up for Plouffe but just want to see if that offer gets better. I also believe the Arcia ship has sailed. I think the Twins saw the value in athletic, good defensive OF last year and what it did to our pitching. I think Plouffe gets traded before the season and Arcia gets one more shot in the OF. April 1 - Rosario, Buxton, Arcia in the OF (Sano at 3B), Arcia is a placeholder for Kepler (and also trying to boost his trade value) June 1 - Rosario, Buxton, Kepler in the OF. Arica traded, cut, or platooned somewhere
  19. tobi0040
    Turns out $7.5M was a club option. I found that from a free agent tracker and thought he signed a one year deal http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016-mlb-free-agent-tracker
  20. tobi0040
    How about one year and $7.5M for Benoit? Give me him and a rookie over two Fein's or Duensing's. Benoit the last five years: 2010 - 60 IP, 1.34 ERA, 292 ERA+ 2011 - 61 IP, 2.95 ERA, 141 ERA+ 2012 - 71 IP, 3.68 ERA, 116 ERA+ 2013 - 67 IP, 2.01 ERA, 207 ERA+ 2014 - 54 IP, 1.49 ERA, 228 ERA+ 2015 - 65 IP, 2.34 ERA, 156 ERA+ I just have never seen a GM consistently talk himself into locking up 10% or so of his annual payroll in players that are at best average because they are one year deals. We think outside the box like Benoit or sign a better pitcher on a 2-3 year deal. Instead of dropping $6M a year on Pelfrey because it was a short deal, wouldn't it have been better to tack that $6M annually to Nolasco's $11M and buy one better pitcher?
  21. tobi0040
    That is funny, because it is true. He maybe used to the font on his typewriter though. This would be a big adjustment.
  22. tobi0040
    Very much so. We effectively did the same thing with Duensing. Avoided arb and gave him $2.7M deal. To Terry Ryan, terrible 1 year deals to players that are not good is better than an actual good player on a 2-3 year deal. I have been trying to make this case for some time. But it appears I am not doing a very good job, Or Terry Ryan doesn't read these comments. Those are the only two options because obviously I am right
  23. tobi0040
    Well it is pretty clear that somehow the other team is also the Twins. I kid, I kid.
  24. tobi0040
    the lower the number the better trade value he has.
  25. tobi0040
    You never know. He could have a year like he had in 2013 or 2011, or an injury and taking a two year deal would have been a great move for him. A two year deal for $12M puts his career earnings around $20M and he is a FA at 34, which is not super old for a reliever.
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