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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I think some of your examples are rare, ie. Harper and Trout. . May had a 4.50 and 4.80 ERA in AA last year and the year prior. So it is hard for me to knock them for having him in the minors still. I think with Harper, the Nats know he will leave in free agency shortly so they wanted to get him up and get him with the big club as long as they could. That is one of the main reasons why they moved him off catcher. Either way, Harper and Trout are pretty rare. A realistic comp to those two would be Buxton and Mauer, Buxton was on a similar path as Trout pre-injury and Mauer was up before his 21st birthday and he is a catcher (more to learn defensively).
  2. tobi0040
    Very interesting, most sites had 5-6 guys in the top 100. None had Vargas and about half had Berrios. Most didn't have May, who would have been the other guy.
  3. tobi0040
    First thought, what a terrible contract. Are we sure Bill Smith was not involved? Second, he appears better than Fuld. However, I looked at baseball reference and I could not find whether or not he could "really get after it". Until I know that, I can't commit.
  4. tobi0040
    I agree with the analogy, but I still would not put it past the Twins to drive a guys value down, then dump him. Is Jim Hoey available?
  5. tobi0040
    How is Garver behind the plate? Any chance he sticks as a catcher?
  6. tobi0040
    I have to agree, would not shock me at all. This isn't quite taking a bat to the coach's door a la Kyle Lohse....but winter ball, waffling on which side he will bat, not putting in the work, or even knowing who is pitching today.
  7. tobi0040
    I guess we will have to eliminate the opinions of all the people that have not played professional baseball. Kind of wondering what we are doing here? Heck, Terry Ryan was a pitcher and never made it out of AA. Joe Vavra never made it past AAA. Neither probably saw many high 80's sliders.
  8. tobi0040
    The Twins seem to let him do whatever he wants and frankly, Hicks doesn't seem to know what he wants. He is 24-25 and been in our system for six or seven years. It is a tough situation and I think the Twins need to intervene to an extent. If he wants to be a switch hitter, they give him to the end of the year at either AAA or the big leagues to see if that works or not. Playing him in a league he did well in two years ago switch hitting is not going to help the team or Hicks get clarity on which way he wants to hit. If he wants to just bat right, then AA or even lower to adjust is fine.
  9. tobi0040
    I have been a huge defender of Hicks. But I am getting kind of tired of this. Don't cut the guy or anything, but my hopes have diminished a great deal. I thought a plan was in place and I was optimistic about it (long term). Kind of hard to be hopeful. 3-4 weeks ago he said he had no confidence from the left side. Right is his natural side, etc. How is AA going to get that back? He had a good year 2 years ago in that league.
  10. tobi0040
    Pro's and con's each way certainly. For me trading these guys is more about getting players reps that are going to be here next year and need to be developed (versus what we can expect in return).
  11. tobi0040
    We are definitely in two different places. I don't see this team as a playoff team. I think we have out-performed to get where we are and we are on pace for 74 wins. 6.5 games may seem "close", but 6.5 games behind four teams, a few of which are clearly better is a long ways. I expect the gap to grow, not tighten. If you believe this is not a playoff team, I think it is prudent to look at 33 and 35 year old players on their last year and move them. If you aren't there I respect that though.
  12. tobi0040
    I see the guys that would get something in value as next to off-limits (Hughes, Dozier, Perkins, etc.). I am on board with keeping these guys. I think you have Josh, Corriea, Suzuki, several bullpen guys, and maybe Morales. I am not overly optimstic about getting anything of value at this point for any of them except for Morales if he gets hot. Willingham has played in 29 games this year and is a complete liability defensively. I think we had to make several calls after Corriea's 4.18 ERA last year and we didn't like what we heard then, I don't see how that would be better now. With respect to Correia and the bullpen guys like Guerrier, Fien, and Burton....I think we would be better off trading them now and bringing up the likes of Meyer, May, Tonkin, Achter, etc. I don't see the market for these guys changing drastically from June 19th to July 31st. Look back at Kyle Gibson last year. He got in 100 IP, got hit around pretty good and now the jitters are gone and he knew what adjustments he had to make. I would rather get that season out of the way this year with our good prospects this year. That is where the value to this organization will be, over waiting for some bonanza for a bunch of mostly mid-level at best MLB players. The players that aren't mid-level have fleas (injuries, haven't played in 3 months, etc).
  13. tobi0040
    That is how I feel about Plouffe as well. Be the guy that puts a for sale sign on the car and drive it around town, but who likes his car and does not actually want to sell it. Given some of the 3B out there, it would seem Plouffe would have value. But he can be an average to above average 3B if Sano doesn't pan out. He can back up 1B, LF, RF, and DH and he crushes lefties. So he could be a valuable piece.
  14. tobi0040
    Thielbar has a .531 OPS against lefties, which is pretty amazing. He is also been pretty good against righties (.613 OPS). We have used him 34 IP against lefties and 35 against righties, so I think that reflects that we use him against lefties but we are not afraid against righties (more hitters are right handed). His FIP this year is about the same as his ERA, last year his FIP of 3.40 was much higher than his 1.75 ERA. BABIP was .175 last year, .239 this year. He certainly had some luck last year and maybe a bit this year. The HR rate has always been low. I would find other people to option or DFA though. To CMAT's point, he is the closest thing we have to a lefty specialist.
  15. tobi0040
    Especially given that Hughes sought our team and our field in an effort to rejuvenate his career. I think you end up having to give every player a no trade clause if you go down this route once or twice, some agents may not return your calls out of spite.
  16. tobi0040
    I also would like to keep Dozier. Even if he is a .250 hitter. This franchise has struggled to field a good 2B for a very long time. If he is a .250 hitter, 20-25 HR a year, great defense, probably only going to cost $30-$40M over 4-5 years, I think he is part of a solution as well.
  17. tobi0040
    I did hear from a Twins insider back in 2012 the Twins had some concern about moving Josh 3 months into a 3 year contract. The risk being future free agents would not sign here because they don't sign 3-5 year deals hoping to be traded in 3 months and move on to another city. I do get it. If you remember the backlash the Marlins received after moving Mark B. and Jose Reyes, both were pretty ticked off.
  18. tobi0040
    Hughes has always been, from ages 20-27 a #2 or #3 starter if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium (4.11 ERA). We have him under contract for another 2.5 years and given the fact that he sought out the Twins because of the ballpark and he is now seeing sucess, I have some hope if he is still pitching well next year that he would be interested in an extension. Young, cheap, very good, confident now. Keep the guy. I agree about the other guys, but not Hughes. He is part of the solution here.
  19. tobi0040
    Yohan, as Johan is done.
  20. tobi0040
    7 IP, H, 8 K. Pretty pedestrian.
  21. tobi0040
    Leave it up to Ronnie. Hard work over a predictor of future success. We are in good hands guys. Pino is going to "battle his tail off", I can just tell. In Gardy's defense, Rudy did get a sack on that one play.
  22. tobi0040
    I am not trying to distort your words either, but saying someone has the best stats based on ERA, etc., then acknowledging FIP is the best predictor, yet defending the move based on ERA, etc. seems off base to me. If FIP is the best predictor, we should go off of FIP. Plain and simple. Let's not have different goal-posts. Define what is most important, use that as a tool in decision making.
  23. tobi0040
    Forgive me, when someone says "he has trade value", I thought that meant you expected a decent player in return. The ERA line doesn't make sense. If you think FIP is the best projector, a players FIP over the last 3 months is what you should go off, no?
  24. tobi0040
    If we are not getting a good player for Pino, why would we plan on bringing him up in hopes of trading him? If luck plays a role, why are you pointing towards ERA and definitively saying he has pitched the best? So FIP is the best predictor, yet we should be OK with promoting a 30 year old with the 4th best FIP on the AAA staff? How has Pino then earned a shot?
  25. tobi0040
    Your first statement is from another planet than your second statement. Second, a quick look through past comments has found you calling a BABIP of .219 lucky and fueling a pitchers performance. Another found that we were not going to get anything but a C level prospect for Suzuki, Willingham, or KC. Today Pino, with a .222 BABIP is "has by far the best numbers" due to his ERA and we are somehow going to get something in return for Yohan Pino after a month if he pitches well. I am sure we could find one where you pointed towards FIP as better than ERA, but this is really a waste of time.
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