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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I show Pino's AAA ERA in 2013 at 3.26 and Meyers at AA at 3.21. Of course Meyers K numbers are way better. Big picture, Meyer's career ERA in the minors is 2.97 and Pino's is 3.77. I suspect this promotion had more to do with Super 2 status (money), which Dave has pointed out and less about 50-60 IP of performance.
  2. tobi0040
  3. tobi0040
    I guess I am not shocked because his agent is Boras. He will never allow us to buy him out of free agency. This be handled just like the Rays have handled David Price, except we will probably wait until the very last year and get less of a return on Meyer.
  4. tobi0040
    Bunch of jibberish. We think Pino and Johnson are better long term bets.
  5. tobi0040
    My understanding is after about June 15th, no difference between June 16th and August 16th. Is that not accurate?
  6. tobi0040
    If true, I am guessing the logic is they want him up for good, so they would wait for KC to be traded and give that spot to Meyer. Let's hope they use Hughes injury to slot Meyer in on 7/30, then take KC's spot in the rotation when Hughes comes back.
  7. tobi0040
    I don't mean to gloss over the BB rate. But with Meyer and to a similar extent May, I think we can stress about these things a little less. The difference between a walk rate being talked about and not a concern, IMO is 4+ per 9 and 3.5 per 9. So Meyer has walked 4.2 per 9 this year, which is about one additional batter every other start. Given these numbers below, I think that that additional runner every other game is less of an issue: Meyer K's 27% of his batters. .227 BA against .71 HR/9 May K's 25% of his batters .206 BA against .42 HR/9 These guys have the stuff to get them out of jams. They don't give up many hits, keep the ball in the park, and can strike guys out.
  8. tobi0040
    That is just it. I subcribe to the only so many bullets in the gun theory and most pitchers take 50-100 IP to adjust to MLB hitters. So the quicker he is up the better, he can get the adjustment period out of the way and start helping this team. I think the Twins already have some explaining to do, but with Nolasco on the shelf, Gibson missing a start, Hughes potentially hurt, and KC likely gone in 6 days.....
  9. tobi0040
    I am guessing we don't want to mess with his process. I think they bring him up for 6-8 starts or whatever it takes to hit the number, then shut him down.
  10. tobi0040
    Let's go back to April first. If someone were to say: -Pelfrey will be out of the rotation in a month. -Nolasco may be done for the year in mid July, or at least miss a ton of time. -Deduno will be innefective this year -Gibson will miss some time. -Twins will be 27th in team ERA -Meyer will have a 3.11 ERA, 10+ K per 9, 7.4 H per 9, and have 100 IP. I would have been shocked and dissapointed to know that all of those 100 IP were in AAA.
  11. tobi0040
    I need to temper my expectations. The first one was that Pino's ERA was lower in 50 IP this year, ignoring the career numbers, who projects better, age, etc. After Johnson and now maybe Darnell, who knows. We still have Gilmartin, we could say he has good control. And Mark Cheeseburger has racked up more participation ribbons over the years.
  12. tobi0040
    Yeah, it would not be a shame if he missed one start and Meyer comes up, then ultimately takes Pino's or Swarzak's spot when Hughes comes back
  13. tobi0040
    Seth, what has been the difference this year for Berrios versus last year? Control looks much better, but what else? velocity, secondary pitches? Low A last year: 3.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.7 K per 9, 3.5 BB per 9 High A this year: 1.96 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.2 K per 9, 2.1 BB per 9
  14. tobi0040
    I would welcome that penalty. I would love to see them not award the #2 pick next year. On the one hand I appreciate the fact that the Astros committed to a rebuild and to a certain extent I wish the Twins would have done that. But the way in which they have gone about it irks me.
  15. tobi0040
    They are really a joke of a franchise. They should have lived up to their offer for Aiken. That kid has to go to college and re-enter the draft in 3 years and MLB has to reward them.
  16. tobi0040
    Could be lot of things, but he looks hammered in the picture.
  17. tobi0040
    Is this true?
  18. tobi0040
    Wins and losses is a terrible gauge for starting pitchers. If you mean revert the two guys BABIP and LOB %, their numbers are in the same ballpark. That is what you have to do when looking at a sample of 50-60 IP. Or you could look at career numbers, which Meyer would get the nod. Pino at AAA. 2.45 ERA, 9.14 K per 9. .220 BABIP and a 86.5% strand rate. Meyer at AAA 3.11 ERA, 10.2 K per 9. .296 BABIP and a 77% strand rate. Meyer's BABIP and strand rate look about normal. If you basically increase Pino's base runners by 30%, then double the amount of runners that score,.......you have two pitchers with very similar numbers and you have just taken the 30 year old non prospect with no future over the 24 year old top 20-30 prospect with MLB stuff. Since the promotion, Pino has K'd 6.5 per 9. His BABIP jumped to .314 (normal range), his LOB percentage swung the other way (.67.8%), which is probably too low..... This was all predictable and we have given 33 innings and counting to the wrong pitcher, IMO.
  19. tobi0040
    I agree with all, except I think we will have a different catcher, a free agent or someone like Turner that isn't on the radar. I don't think we trust Pinto. I think Polanco will be the SS. Probably one free agent in there somewhere, my guess is LF depending on how Rosario progresses, or if Hicks can turn it around.
  20. tobi0040
    Bingo.
  21. tobi0040
    In 2016, we will owe Perkins $12.8M over two years and hold an option on 2018 for $6.5M. This is nothing for a closer and likely cheaper than it would be if we traded him and had to find a replacement. In 2014, almost 30 relievers make more than Perkins does. My guess is that number is more like 40-50 in two years. It is possible that we find an internal replacement that is cheap for a few years, but a 7-8-9 of Achter/Tonkin, Burdi, and Perkins gives us the best chance to shut down games like we used to. Lastly, if that $6M a year owed to Perkins is an any way limiting any other baseball decisions going on at that point, we have a bigger set of problems.
  22. tobi0040
    If we want to get creative that is fine. If KC is taking innings from Pino, Johnson, or Darnell I don't really care. The reality to me is he is likely going to be in the rotation and taking innings from Meyer or May, which is unnacceptable and if that is the case, cut him if we can't get anything for him. My gut tells me after signing Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey last offseason we shopped him and didn't find any suitors. He has not pitched as well this year....so the market for him is not booming.
  23. tobi0040
    very interesting. I hope he does keep his weight in check and gets a shot next year and hopefully gets some AB's in September.
  24. tobi0040
    I agree, Terry has a ton of credibility and respect in the baseball community. It is hard to quantify in the way Chopper is trying, but some players want to play here. Other GM's take his calls. He is a guy that you can shake his hand and know what you are getting. He will tell you exactly where you stand with him/our team. These things have value.
  25. tobi0040
    If the 2015 or 2016 team is competitive, we will likely have exactly 3 of 25 players that are both non rookie/young players and better than average players. Dozier, Mauer, and Perkins. If anything, that is a very low young player to veteran ratio. I think team atmosphere and leaders are typically overblown, but even 3/25 seems a tad low to me. Note I left off Nolasco and we may have a reliever or two that are veterans. I personally believe young players look up to guys that are good, all star caliber. These guys don't fit that description. I think Mauer will return to being better than average and either way, 3 batting titles, all star appearances, and an MVP award gets you credibility.
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