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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    They seem to make these moves at the last minute. I am guessing because someone could get hurt in the meantime. Saturday they are in Oakland anyway
  2. tobi0040
    I have a hard time getting overly excited about catching prospects. Seems like we always have a few that can hit and have decent reports defensively, then at some point the Twins lose all trust in them. The two that come to mind are Pinto and Jose Morales. The same could be said about short stops.
  3. tobi0040
    I guess it depends on what "roster move" means. If that means bringing up a guy from AAA, then it could be Meyer or May. If it means adding a player to the 40 man it could only be Meyer.
  4. tobi0040
    I am guessing we are simply finalizing a trade for Liam Hendricks.
  5. tobi0040
    What if Meyer has some minor injury next March or April? They get to baby him for a month or two, then rehab, etc.
  6. tobi0040
    I hope you are right, but I just can't discount the fact that this could all be about dollar bills.
  7. tobi0040
    Well, maybe he would not throw the change in a 3 ball count. But maybe the change has led to 2-3 additional 3 ball counts per start? Even 1-2 additional 3 ball counts could lead to an additional walk every other outing and the increase from 3.5 to 4.4 BB's every 9 innings.
  8. tobi0040
    Logically, it would seem plausable that he would struggle to locate a pitch he started mid-season at age 24-25. Certainly more so than his other pitches he has thrown his whole life. If pitch fx data existed for minor leaguers that may be telling. I am not sure it is available though. I am thinking percentage strikes/balls by pitch type.
  9. tobi0040
    I don't know of a single franchise that would still have Meyer down in AAA. Some would maybe start him in the pen, others in the rotation. Some would have brought him up before the super 2 deadline because they don't care. Most would have brought him up right after. But I truly believe every other franchise would conclude he has nothing to prove and they would want to futher his development by testing him up here.
  10. tobi0040
    I can't disagree that is a risk. Some minor injury to his arm, shoulder, knee, whatever is now an excuse to hold him back until next years deadline. Is it really a shoe in that he makes the team in April? Pelfrey will be back and he really battles his tail off, a real veteran out there....
  11. tobi0040
    If we are following a Vacation plot, we would all get down there and he would not be there. A promotion would not be Wally World-esque, so we would have to move him to New Britain to work on a new 4th pitch. He will really struggle without mastering a knuckle ball.
  12. tobi0040
    Just because he is a good pitcher doesn't mean he would not beneift from a fall audition. He should make the 2015 team either way, but don't we wan't Meyer to be the best pitcher he could be and keep improving? it seems like that should be a priority, over evaluating our 38th, 39th, or 40th person on our 40 man next year or figuring out right now who has the inside track on the #5 starter role next year or who will be 1st or 2nd in line next year. These are not decisions that impact the long term health of the organization. Our handling of Meyer could.
  13. tobi0040
    The point was the difference between 4.4 BB per 9 and 3.5 BB per 9 (where we would not be having this conversation), is about 1-1.2 walks every other start. As has been outlined before, Meyer's pitches per inning are about on par with Pino, Darnell, and May. Should we really be worried about taxing the bullpen with our record? Should that be altering any decisions?
  14. tobi0040
    Looks like a duck, talks like a duck, walks like a duck......it is a duck, Spot on.
  15. tobi0040
    Sorry to pile on. But RJ's numbers at AAA in his last full season were 8.81 K per 9 and 5.72 BB per 9. Both quite a bit worse than Meyer's. His BB per 9 numbers over the first four seasons were much worse than Meyer's are likely to be (4.9 to 6.8 per year). RJ's K numbers were 7.95 year 1, then just a tad over 10 the next 3. Yes, it is a comp to a HOF guy. But Meyer's numbers now are better and I would argue over the next four years his K numbers project to be about the same, with much better BB numbers......and RJ still put up a sub 4.00 ERA because he has excellent stuff, like Meyer. I am not saying that Meyer will have the same career as RJ, but it puts to ease some concerns I would typically have
  16. tobi0040
    it isn't clear to me how 90 pitches a game over the last month and over the next month at AAA is better for his arm than in the big leagues. I don't think anyone has suggested the Twins go over their innings limit for Meyer, just that those should be up here to further his development.
  17. tobi0040
    Logic would say that he will allow more hits, HR's, etc. against MLB hitters. Any pitcher would. I believe all of these metrics in the big leauges will trump every pitcher we have brougt up since Liriano in 2006. So a career 3.7 BB per 9 in the minors and the 4.4 this year is not enough to hold him back. Heck, I would argue that if we were concerned about the BB rate, bringing him up for 5 starts and proving to him that he needs to get his BB's under control is the best thing for his development.
  18. tobi0040
    In addition to a very low HR rate. If he had 3.5 BB per 9 and 8 H per 9 instead of 4.5 BB per 9 and 7 H per 9....somehow he would be ready. Note that the BB is one base and the additional hit maybe 2, 3, or 4. The point is that with the typical Twins pitcher, walk rates are very important. Alex Meyer is not the typical Twins pitcher.
  19. tobi0040
    Outside of a social anxiety disorder, triggered by large stadiums....what type of information could the Twins have that is not financial? I am really struggling to even speculate what they could be. The "he is only five starts from being done" thing doesn't make any sense to me. He is only five starts away because they have delayed him this far and even if he is only five away, wouldn't value exist in having him put on the jersey, walk to the mound and get those 5 starts up here?
  20. tobi0040
    I am already pissed because this reeks of a financial decision over a development decision. He can pitch 5-6 IP, 1-2 ER, and 6-9 k's at AAA until the cows come home.
  21. tobi0040
    Yes, Yes, and Yes. None of these theories make any sense, so the Twins have a different motive. They are blowing a great opportunity to get the nerves out and get some experience under the belt of a guy that will undoubtedly be pitching in game 1 of the next Twins playoff game.
  22. tobi0040
    I would have DFA'd KC as well (assuming nobody would have taken him for one of those heavy rings that you put around the bat in the on deck circle). Unfortunately, I think what Seth has laid out is what will happen.
  23. tobi0040
    Many different theories have existed. The super 2, the walks, the pitch count, "inconsistency", the terrible three starts where he gave up a total of 7 ER, none have ever made sense to me other than maybe super 2 (which has passed). Most have really been people making excuses for the organization. What has been constant? Alex Meyer is the most talented pitcher within the entire system, IMO. Clearly the most talented of the pitchers at AAA or that have recently been moved up. His ERA, k numbers, and GB rates show that he has had nothing to prove in AAA and his stuff projects the best at the MLB level. Something has never smelled right about the whole thing, I have concluded that the Twins want to bring up all of their key guys together. Meyer, May, Sano, Buxton, Vargas, and maybe Rosario. They believe this will be good PR as well as allow them to keep them under control at the same time. That is the motivation and it is really pathetic.
  24. tobi0040
    Your expectation of logic will be your downfall.
  25. tobi0040
    BB per 9 of 4.5 + H/9 of 7 > BB per 9 of 3.5 and H/9 of 8. Reason being the BB is only one base and that additional hit could be a 2B, 3B, or HR. But I guarantee you this concern and prediction that Meyer will struggle would not be happening if his BB rate was 3.5 and he was allowing 8 hits per 9.
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