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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Max turned down 6-144 before the season started (24 a year). He has been healthy and dominant again. No reason to think that offer would not still be there, with bidding driving it higher.
  2. tobi0040
    SD. I think if we had clarity that Sano was a DH and Vargas will always rake here. I would move Sano for cole in a second. But not until we have clarity.
  3. tobi0040
    But you have to give up prospects too. Hamels is a very good pitcher that would require Sano or Buxton. I would rather have Scherzer and 6 @25 a year, and Buxton than Hamels for 4 @ 25 without Buxton. Basically choosing to give up Buxton and not have Max two more years.
  4. tobi0040
    Out-earning pay and meeting the intent of a contract clause are two very different things. If we had an ounce of foresight, this $500K would be a goodwill investment for Hughes and others. I think even if we are the highest bidder, certain free agents would not sign here because they would be worried the team will not make the investments in other players. This could be a small step in improving that perception.
  5. tobi0040
    I think that is an overly simplistic view. He did pitch well enough to earn it. If Hughes was like Suzuki and pissed and moaned about playing time all year he would have stayed in for a few batters here and there and got to 210. If it was not for rain, which is out of his control, he would have earned it. If you look at the intent of the clause, he exceeded the threshold in my opinion about what he gave the Twins this year. And if you take a step back, you want to keep your employees happy. Especially one that you will likely engage in long term discussions with, potentially as early as this offseason.
  6. tobi0040
    I kind of changed my opinion a tad too, but in the other direction. I thought it would be a nice gusture but the charity would be okay. I think they should pay the guy. The intent of putting that clause into the contract was to reward him for staying healthy and pitching effective enough throughout the course of the season that he gets to 210 innings. Given 34 starts, that is not missing a start and averaging 6.1 innings per start. By all accounts, he has exceeded what we were hoping and he had a great year. Not only did he give us innings, but he gave us effective innings. I think the fact that he is not causing a big deal about it makes me want to give him the bonus even more. That is called class and setting an example. If he was making a big deal of it many would call him selfish.
  7. tobi0040
    I really loved the article. The Twins could talk themselves out of a lot of moves by the logic "well firing Gardy is not going to make us a playoff team next year". I liked how you noted that it is going to take many things to right this ship. The only thing I believe would be a bad idea is Buxton breaking camp with the Twins. He was overwhelmed last spring and really didn't play. He probably needs to get in a routine again before the added pressure of the big stage. Regarding Pelfrey, I think it would be a nice symbolic move to cut him. Logic would suggest try him in the pen and I would not be shocked if the Twins broke camp with him in the rotation. But if Terry Ryan wants to say noboy is on scholarship, then cutting a guy that has shown nothing but horrible results and injury for four years in a row would send a message that we are going to break camp next year wth good players. I think it makes sense to keep Ricky and not dump him. This year was an anomoly for him. Moving him would require us to pay him to pitch for someone else next year. My hope is that we have a new piching coach as well next year. If we sign a very good pitcher and Ricky return to the guy we thought we were getting, we are better by two spots in the rotation.
  8. tobi0040
    I think it would be a nice gesture. But I would be okay with the donation I would be okay adding 2 and 26 to his deal. The crazy thing is I think hw would do it
  9. tobi0040
    Viewing cash flow out of their pocket as something that should be a consideration here is silly, IMO. On several fronts. A - the value of the team went up almost $400M B - They are making money on an annual basis every year C- If you buy a bigger house, of course your maintenance costs go up. $15M a year in maintenance on a $500M stadium is 3%. The equivalent of $6,000 a year on a $200K house. They knew this going in and it was still a great deal for them, the numbers were crunched and this made sense and they moved forward. So I don't want to hear complaints about upkeep. D - I assure you revenue went up more than maintenance expenses This is not spin, these are facts.
  10. tobi0040
    The Twins did a good job broadcasting that they paid excess construction costs out of their own pocket. Ths is yet another distortion of reality and spin job. The rough numbers on the stadium was the Twins put up $150M and the tax payer put up $300M. Then the Twins kicked in another $15-$20M and told everyone how great they were. Meanwile, the value of the team went up over $400M+ since the stadium. Example.....If I put a gold deck on my house and get the gold for free. I pay $5K in labor and the value of my house goes up $50K.....should I complain about the $5K I had to pay in labor?
  11. tobi0040
    I think the Twins can either be pro-active and lower prices for next year, or they can wait a month when nobody comes, then cut them. I think it will look much worse if they wait until the season starts.
  12. tobi0040
    I think the stars and moon need to align for this team to be competitive into September next year. I really don't see us trading for a top pitcher and it would cost Sano or Buxton to get one via trade, so I just don't see that either. If I am right, we are basically then bringing back the same players and asking 2-3 rookies to improve the team by 15 games or so.
  13. tobi0040
    I agree that the Pohlads may re-trench and I also believe it may be worse than the Twins think. Scaling back would be yet another slap to the fan base and tax payer, IMO I talked to my friend who is cancelling. He said he has three couples next to him and all four sets have been full season ticket holders since 2010. 2 sets are cancelling and another is scaling back to a half of 20 game pack. He also brought up another negative dynamic. A drastic reduction in season ticket holders will mean fewer tickets being dumped on stub hub for less than face value. So the casual fan, who is also discouraged will have to pay more to see the team play. That is not a good thing. Going to get real ugly.
  14. tobi0040
    I completely agree about winning and losing, a team that sniffs .500 next year, driven by a big free agent signing and young players coming up would stop much of the negativity. The issue is I think you have 3 FA pitchers that can help us and whether or not the Twins will do that. I think Max and Lester get 6-8 year deals (Lester is almost a lock to the Red Sox). CC received an 8 year deal with a 9th that vests when he was 29 I believe. Verlander received a 7 year deal when he was 30. When it comes to those guys, a high AAV 4 year deal is a pipe dream because they are going to get $24-25M a year on the long deal anyway. Shields is going to get 5 years IMO at $20M. So a 4 year deal with more a year is probably less attractive than a 5 year deal. 4/90 is not better than 5/100 IMO. Ervin is probably the most likely, but is he really an elite pitcher and does he make us much better? His ERA+is 93 this year and it was 74 three years ago (sandwiched by a very good 127). He has the making of another Nolasco type conract.
  15. tobi0040
    I typically go to 3-4 games a year, including two with my family of four. I went once this year with a friend and that was 100% based on it being a day game and popping over to TF on a nice day instead of working. So it is not just the season ticket holders. I kind of wonder if they will be pushed to starting the year with Meyer or bringing up Sano/Buxton early.
  16. tobi0040
    I have a friend that says the Twins don't sell baseball or entertainment, they sell hope.
  17. tobi0040
    Of the four people that I personally know with season tickets, two have not renewed and another is on the fence. One of the couples actually stopped going to their games and have trouble selling them on stub hub. This franchise needs to do something to get people interested. The two that did not renew received a Brian Dozier life size cut out, followed by a phone call saying it was not too late to "upgrade". I completely agree that firing a few assistant coaches and keeping Gardy is not going to be enough. I think fans want to see him gone and they want to see better pitching. Whether that is via trade or signing a top free agent starter. I just wish we had an ownership group that did not need to pushed into adding top talent or firing a manager that needs to be fired. It is always a financial decision.....if renewal rate drops below x, spend money this offseason.
  18. tobi0040
    Someone else said it on another thread. I am not writing Hicks off, but I am not banking on him either. Doesn't seem like he gives a rip, to be honest. Has to be frustrating for the Twins. The guy was handed the CF job. They stuck with him through very bad play. He is late for things, showed up not knowing who the pitcher was one day, doesn't sound like he watches much tape.
  19. tobi0040
    Well, he did say he will be "hungry" next year. He is probably a hit with Gardy, the one liners that don't really mean anything and are not quanifiable. For those of you who thought he was going to be "hungry" this year, um....sorry?
  20. tobi0040
    I said that backwards. Josh was a loss every 36 and Torii every 45 or 46. Both had a negative WAR though. Torii, IMO still gives the Twins an out to blame the defense next year.
  21. tobi0040
    Salary plays a role too. Pitchers that get a lot of strikeouts have good stuff and cost more. Max S. has a career 9.6 k per 9. Lester is a career 8.2. Shields is at 7.7 which is not crazy high,but coupled with a 3.6 K to BB ratio is pretty special My gut says we are not seriously in the running for either three.
  22. tobi0040
    Outside of a horrible contract for horrible contract like this one, I put the chances of a Nolasco trade at 0.0%. We were the high bidder or Nolasco last year, now we want another team to pay more than they were willing to pay last year after the performance and injury concern that was 2014. Or, equally as unlikely, we want Terry Ryan to spend $5M a year to have Nolasco pitch for someone else, then have to go out in the market and overpay agan to replace him.
  23. tobi0040
    I think defensive metrics move in the right direction....but they are extreme when they try and quantify thigs. The downside to signing Hunter is it goes another year where we can blame the defense and not the pitching.
  24. tobi0040
    Pretty much the equivalent of saying, "no offense", then saying something really offensive.
  25. tobi0040
    I was respondng to the assertion that Gardy i doing "what all teams do, play ther best players against contenders". The logic does not really hold weight now, or on July 1 when we knew we were not a contender. Pinto has caught 23 games.
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