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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I totally agree. The other thing that has been proven is that you can both play talented young players and field a team that is as good or better than by signing the likes of Pelfrey, Corriea, Kubel, Bartlett, and by playing AAAA types like Parmelee, Colabello, and insert several 28-30 year old pitchers. Twins - 70 wins Houston - 70 wins Cubs - 73 wins Marlins - 77 wins As we approach the winter meetings, free agency, and into the spring when we break camp I hope the Twins have learned this.
  2. tobi0040
    Good call. Always look at the alternative.
  3. tobi0040
    I think we are talking about two different things. First, the Twins benefit from a new-ish stadium. Minute Maid Park was built 14 years ago. The Twins also roped season ticket holders who signed up for a new stadium into hanging on for an all star game. So I think the Twins numbers are inflated quite a bit. We are at 2.2M this year while Houston is at 1.65M. I would not be shocked if the Twins dip into this range next year, given how many people cancelled. I also think attendace year over year should not validate a strategy. Houston has players playing and getting better that are part of their future. We have ran through the exercise already, but the Twins have wasted too many innings and at bats on guys that were never going to be part of the 2015 or 2016 team. Not to mention playing guys out of position. Not to mention we finished with the same record, so for my money I would rather win games and invest in the future versus 70 and invest in guys that will be retired or playing in Japan next year. So if the goal is to win, both now and in the future, I have a tough time seeing how their approach is not superior.
  4. tobi0040
    Regarding Myers contract, he seems like a guy that would fit into the mold of an extension that buys out a few years of free agency. Oddorizi has 5-7 or whatever. An equivalent trade would be a year from now, the Twins are a .500 team and trade Buxton and Berrios for 2 years of Shields. At the time, Myers was 3rd overall and Oddorizzi was 35th. I would be irate and the reliever would not help my fury!
  5. tobi0040
    Here are my two cents. There are times to bet the farm and times to not bet the farm. Is James Shields going to take a .500 team to the world series? We will soon find out. The relevance argument seems short term to me. KC is a middle market team that could have really used Myers and Odorizzi for the next 7-9 years on the cheap. They are now going to be drafting 15th for years and not signing anyone of value in free agency, i.e. no mans land. If this trade makes them better in year one, a playoff team that is not good enough to win it all like the Twins fom 2003-2010 for one year then worse for the next five or seven, is that a good trade? I can go along with the deal if they were an 88-92 win team before the deal and/or resigned him. But I truly believe this deal was made out of desperation by the GM and long term KC will regret it.
  6. tobi0040
    My guess is five years from now, they will want a mulligan. Myers is going to be an above average player for years. Odorizzi will be a long term #3 starter. And I don't see KC signing Shields, nor do I see them in the playoffs next year without him. The biggest issue I see is Moore bet the farm in order to keep his job, not because it was a prudent transaction.
  7. tobi0040
    I agree that we won't be good until the big guys get up and that in 2011 and 2012 we did't have many options. Although the fact that we let a bunch of ex-all stars go without much compensation probably at least played a role in not having anything coming up. But I think in addition to Meyer and May, Santana at SS, and Pinto at catcher could be useful pieces too. You could also list a few bullpen guys as well. But we simply don't know what we have
  8. tobi0040
    Sounds like no disagreement then. But I am guessing you agree that had the Twins acknowledged a rebuild and embraced a young movement, we would be better in 2015 and 2016. That was the point I was trying to make. Kuechel 439 IP. Mchugh 202 IP. Cosart 240 IP. Peacock 227 IP. All are pretty young. In addition to Altuve, Springer, etc. getting their feet wet. This does two things. Allows these guys to make adjustments and grow and gives the team clarity. Sometimes you think a guy is going to be good and he isn't, but clarity is valuable too
  9. tobi0040
    This may be your opinion, but the Astros have Altuve (24), Keuchel (26) Springer (25), Singleton (23) and Mchugh (27) on their team. A few young starters putting up league average numbers already and ahead of us on the experience curve. They have Correa, Mccullers, and maybe something comes of Appel, and two top 5 picks next year. Certainly not a lock that we leapfrog them. Folks on Astros Daily may disagree
  10. tobi0040
    I fixed the error about the record, I remember them being ahead all year. The comp wasn't the point I was trying to make though.
  11. tobi0040
    Yeah, they have been bad for awhile. But they had the same record with a collecton of young players that were gaining experience. We had a series of them blocked or playing somewhere in the diamond that they will never play again. Most have their minor league system rated better as well. The comparison was not really the point I was trying to make though and probably took away from it. The Twins never acknowledged a rebuild and made very non-rebuild type moves. Everything the last 3-4 years should have been in the lens of a rebuild. Had they done that, I think we would be better now.
  12. tobi0040
    I think we need to distinguish between two different things. When did the rebuild happen and when should the rebuild have happened? As noted, the Twins had the 4th oldest pitching staff in baseball this year, year four of 90+ losses a year. Signing guys like Pelfrey and Correia on one and two year deals, Jared Burtons, and taking low ceiling fliers on Bartlett and Kubel and simply not rebuild type moves. Even all the free agents we have let go, none were moved for a meaningful piece. Or how about playing young players that need work defensively out of position? I think the Twins never fully embraced a rebuild because of the timing with the stadium. The Houston Astros embraced a rebuild and are in a better place as a result. The Twins did not want the payroll to go too low and tick people off. Instead they chose to not be honest to themselves and the fans and acknowledge the reality of the situation. I think this dip has lasted longer than neccesary as a result. The other harsh reality is, had they acknowledged a rebuild maybe their manager would not have been fired.
  13. tobi0040
    I think you could get Kemp for nothing and have the Dodgers pick up $5M a year. So it would be like going out and signing Kemp to a 6 year deal at $15M a year. It would be an option for me, but something tells me we can find a better alternative to uprade LF (and I don't think the Twins want to go out 6 years on a guy that age, injury concerns, etc.) In the last few years, the White Sox have found Carlos Quentin and Eaton and did not give up much either time.
  14. tobi0040
    This could be just a statement thing and the next manager could have conditions on his hiring, like you need to hire Molitor and Bruno.
  15. tobi0040
    I could list off at least four reasons why we have no choice but needing to add Lester or Scherzer....but it will still be a huge shock to me if we actually did it. Maybe this is just a tad of optimism on my side, but maybe the days of having a huge gap between what the Twins should do and what they will do is closing?
  16. tobi0040
    This is how this would appear from my empoyer: Terry Ryan is pleased to announce the following: After a long and successful career, Ron Gardenhire has announced his retirement, effective immediately. We thank Ron for his many contributions. In retirement, Ron will enjoy spending time with his family, traveling, and fishing.
  17. tobi0040
    so was I, but it is the right move. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/275315091.html?page=2&c=y
  18. tobi0040
    I don't want to give up prospects that are top 5-10 for a rental either (even a two year rental). The Twins have money to spend right now. So giving up Buxton or Sano and then having to pay a guy $150M is silly given you have three top level guys on the market this year. Sign one of them without giving up anything. I do like the Royals approach and acknowledgement that they needed more than prospects....just don't like exactly the way they went about this move.
  19. tobi0040
    Yes, quantity over quality. Every GM knows that.
  20. tobi0040
    I was going to say the exact same thing. He was flirting with someone on the internet.
  21. tobi0040
    Depth and redundancy are different things. In the case of Pinto, my belief is that the Twins have no intention of using him as a catcher and he looks to be the 3rd best hitter out of these three. Also behind Sano and Arcia if they can't hold down 3B and LF.
  22. tobi0040
    kemp is tempting in a swap with Ricky, if we get that salary down to about $15M a year. Then it is close to neutral given that we lose 11M and add 15M and a rooke starter (Meyer) instead of buying a LF. His deal goes out 5 years though. Kemp's OPS the last 5 years: .760, .986, .906, .723, and .852 I don't see this happening, so hopefully Terry is looking for a guy with average to above average defense with at least an adequate bat (.280 with 15-20 HR). I would also target a guy that hits righties very well. Plouffe may get bumped off 3B sometime between April and June. He has always hit lefties very well. We could platoon in LF and not have to give up the farm.
  23. tobi0040
    I don't know him. But from what I can tell. Making a speech or sitting on tv for half an inning tells me he would rather be anywhere else in the world. The payroll tells me he is not going broke trying to field a great team If you take a step back, it is the self made guys like cuban, jerry jones, and daniel snyder that seek out and buy a team to inflate their ego's and they are extremely competitive. You can tell when they lose they are dying inside. They love being the face of the team. The pohlads inherited 2 billion dollars and a baseball team. Very different dynamic
  24. tobi0040
    The only reason I can pinpoint keeping the team is some vow he made to his Dad. He does not like the limelight, is not competitive, does not need to feed his ego, and the value of the team has risen a ton. Please sell.
  25. tobi0040
    Or the other common phrase "he is not going to strike many guys out, just throw it over and let your defense take care of the rest". That sounds an awful lot like pitch to contact. In addition. they have a history of stressing pitch counts and convincing strike out pitchers to be "more efficient" by "not trying to strike everyone out". An obvious example if LIriano.
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