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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    The fact that prospects take a long time to develop, often moving from org to org before finding themselves should in theory be nuetral to the Twins. We should see an equal number of our guys leave and find success as we should pick up and see guys succeed The bigger problem is this has not been equal. We have a development and talent recognition issue and are losing more than we gain
  2. tobi0040
    That is an interesting way to look at it. I would probably take Sano at 3b but folks in Detroit and Chicago may disagree. Even more discouraging would be to see how many positions we rank 4th and 5th.
  3. tobi0040
    The only possible TR defense here is that he may have felt pressure from ownership to not completely rip the team apart and start over. Personally though, given his tendancies over the years. The fact that he just can't help himself from the dumpster, signing vets over going young, over-valuing defense, signing #5 starters, etc. I don't think this was likely the case. If it was it played a very minor role.
  4. tobi0040
    Yeah. I remember a game this year where he swung at a ball neck high a foot outside. Smalley said "He is simply never going to get a good pitch to hit after swinging at a ball like that"
  5. tobi0040
    This is true, but BB rate is a solid data point. I would guess BB rates and percentage of swings outside the zone are highly correlated (inversely) Rosario walked 3% of the time last year. 2.5% this year and now 4.1% in AAA. Those are extremely low
  6. tobi0040
    Molitor could have coaxed a few more wins out of this team. Although some of these decisions like Sano in the OF for example I think were not his call. I was just noting that we switched coaches and are actually losing more. So it seems the last person still sitting in their chair is Terry Ryan.
  7. tobi0040
    Yeah. That is kind of where we are at. Very few teams in this league have an inherent advantage over us, yet they are all basically winning many more games. There comes a point that trying is not good enough. Sometimes you are just in over your head.
  8. tobi0040
    I brought up Walker because the article listed a bunch of players and he wasn't listed. And because he was a very clear example of someone who was promoted before he had the tools to be able to succeed in the big leagues. The odd thing is the Twins have been extremely hesitant to promote pitchers who walk guys. But have been very willing to promote hitters who don't take walks. One would think a pitcher that walks 20 more batters is the same as a hitter who takes 20 fewer. But my head is sore from all the scratching, I just don't bother anymore.
  9. tobi0040
    Well in AA as a 23 year old he hit .239 and got on base just over 30% of the time. He hit 31 HR, great. But he struck out 35% of the time. To me he needs to drastically improve the k rate and OBP if he ever has a shot as a major league DH, which is his only track up here. So instead of repeating AA and working on doing just that, they move him up. The result, a .730 OPS and a 42% k rate in AAA. This has the look of a September callup at some point where the kid gets absolutely embarrassed.
  10. tobi0040
    "If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't want to tell him to take" No. That is exactly what you need to teach them. The more balls they take the better balls they will see in the zone, which are easier to drive. What you are seeing are guys who put up good enough numbers in the minors to be promoted the following year and could get away with hacking. Then when faced against the best pitchers they fall flat. Look at ABW in AAA. This team lacks a development program with the mentality of using the minors as a tool to develop major league players. The big picture is lacking
  11. tobi0040
    How sad is it that we make literally the worst personnel decision in a long time, it fails miserably and after 2.5 months I am pleasantly surprised the Twins moved this quick to reverse it?
  12. tobi0040
    It is an either or though. And Arcia though his struggles has created 30-40 more runs over the last season and a half.
  13. tobi0040
    That is quite optimistic.
  14. tobi0040
    So if the problem wasn't the coach.......
  15. tobi0040
    That is exactly it. I would be curious Nick, if you were the GM would you DFA Santana or Arcia? An either or. Not both. I think that is what has folks riled up. Why DFA Arcia who has some potential over Santana who has none, is more replaceable, and less upside.
  16. tobi0040
    I don't know how to do it. But if someone put a poll up asking which one between Arcia and Santana will go on to play in an all star game I am guessing it will be pretty overwhelming. I am not predicting that happens. But if you told me one of them will, it will be Arcia.
  17. tobi0040
    The FO can't make one decision OK because of another terrible decision they made.
  18. tobi0040
    What level of offensive futility are we willing to accept for defensive flexibility and how does that compare to defensive futility? We are giving up 150 basis points in OPS between Arcia and Santana, about double the wRc. And obviously upside. Seems to me Santana is worse with the bat than Arcia is with the glove. And Santana is not a gold glover. In fact, Santana has negative defensive value if you look at WAR.
  19. tobi0040
    So a professional athlete who is about 135 pounds is wearing down because he has to sprint about 50 yards 3-5 times a game, because he trained for shorter runs?
  20. tobi0040
    A professional athlete is getting worn out playing baseball about half the time over two years?
  21. tobi0040
    The reality is we could make individual cases to cut about half of our players. In a silo, you can make a case to cut Arcia. Limited defensively, high k rate, etc.. However, comparing players with gigantic warts against one another is the more appropriate analysis. Across the last two seasons, Danny Santana has a wRc of 48. Among players with 400 AB he is second worst in the major leagues. His OPS is .559. Arcia’s wRc is 83 and 78, and his OPS is .717 and .658. And look at our roster and the win column. We basically have two CF’s in Buxton and Kepler and at some point a third, Rosario will be back. And Escobar and Nunez can play SS and Beresford who is probably better than Santana anyway is a phone call away. Given all of the flexibility on our roster, the 4th OF role should have been a no brainer for a platoon bat and a guy who has a shot at hitting a HR in the bottom of the 9th. No player we have is better suited for that than Arcia. Defensive flexibility has always been over emphasized by this franchise. A team losing 70% of their players should not be overly worried about who their 3rd SS is on a daily basis.
  22. tobi0040
    Probably so the Twins could have said "they were in" on Park had he turned out good. Let me be clear, this is not aimed at you at all. But the Twins have been defended because they "didn't think they would win" the Park bidding and it altered their plans. Really a lame excuse. Don't bid then.
  23. tobi0040
    That is exactly it. The analysis of who is apart of the future should have concluded Plouffe was not. Sano is a better 3b. And Plouffe at $7m this year (age 29), $10m next year (age 30) and FA money starting at 31 is a no brainer. So instead Sano goes to RF and has failed miserably. Park gets DH reps and Arcia gets edged out. Plouffe was never going to be a piece on the 2018 Twins playoff team. Arcia may have been. But now he won't.
  24. tobi0040
    I think many think they need to move guys who aren't the future, but believe Arcia never really got the chance. If you back out his first two years I am not sure he had a fair crack. At a very minimum there were others with less upside and less replaceable than him. The whole Santana up and Arcia DFA is hard to swallow I am not sure if Arcia is or is not part of the future. The guy has some potential. His numbers at 22 and 23 show me he has a talented base to work off of. My gut says his bat was good enough to platoon in RF or DH and that is where he will land and have a decent career. He is not a good defender, but his bat given regular at bats against righties probably would have been enough to add value.
  25. tobi0040
    This is a year where I would have been okay with college players. Because to be honest I trust the folks at Vanderbilt, LSU, etc to better develop players than I do the Twins. Hopefully the entire staff is overvalued and new people are in charge of development. Keith Law was critical of the Twins a few years ago about taking lower ceiling players in first round and relievers early. That is when I started researching it a bit and looked back at past drafts and frankly I think he is spot on. I think we are really blowing our best avenue to acquire talent. It isn't about one pick neccesarily, it is about an all encompassing strategy or lack thereof. Aiming too low and focusing on non premium/positions with abundant supply of talent and has played a role in our teams struggles.
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