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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I didn't realize the Twins had a true option in Kurt. 1 and 6? That is what we are going to do. I would wager on that
  2. tobi0040
    If you DFA Santana, Molitor may just quit. That would be a win-win all around
  3. tobi0040
    Ervin yes. But we need to realize that Ricky has a 5.30, 6.75, and 5.30 ERA the last three years. And he is on the hook for $12m next year. He is one of the least valuable players in the league and it is an embarrassment he is still starting for us.
  4. tobi0040
    Good point. One would think our GM would be constantly thinking of how we can improve the 2017 team, particularly starting pitchers and a catcher
  5. tobi0040
    The offense looks a lot closer than the pitching.
  6. tobi0040
    Valid points. Here are my premises. Not the way I would do it, but likley the reality. -We are not paying Santana to pitch elsewhere. Our history suggests we have effectively sold guys to get out of the remaining 1-2 months and in exchange received nothing in return. So I would be shocked if we ate salary to get a better prospect back. -If we trade him, we are going to sign a free agent pitcher next off-season. We are not running out Gibson and the four guys who were just promoted to AA next year. Given all the young talent, a "veteran" will be added. If we get a top 50 guy back, I would give up Ervin. I am indifferent in the 50-70 range. But given these two working assumptions above I would be fine passing on anything else.
  7. tobi0040
    I really hope we can agree that the Braves have done a number of smart things over the last 1.5 years that we would never do. #1 on that list is effectively buying prospects and draft picks.
  8. tobi0040
    I think this is feasible given the FA market next year. His remaining 2/27 may look appealing in that context. And the other side of that equation is teams don't tend to trade players that are under contract another two years and productive because they have value to them.
  9. tobi0040
    The way I look at it is you need 6-7 good starters to compete. I think our path to get there is better with Ervin than with a top 50-60 prospect. Especially if that prospect is not a pitcher or one in the low minors.
  10. tobi0040
    Those are valid points. But what do you think the Twins would pay straight up for the 50-60th overall prospect? I would put the number south of $8-10m. Let alone lose Ervin and move the break even point of his number to 2 years and $18m to find a replacement.
  11. tobi0040
    Before we trade Ervin we may want to take a peek at the upcoming FA class. The class was weak to start and here are the top guys. #1 – Strasburg resigned with the Nats #2 – CJ Wilson is 35 and has the roughly the same ERA+ as Ervin over the last four years #3 – Weaver has been awful and has no velocity left #4 – Brett Anderson has roughly the same ERA+ as Ervin the last four years and been hurt a ton. It seems to me you will have a lot of teams chasing a few average pitchers. 2/27 for Ervin may look like a steal. http://www.sbnation.com/2015/11/16/9743932/mlb-free-agency-rumors-trade-2016-2017
  12. tobi0040
    I really don’t see the Twins picking up any salary in a trade for Ervin. I am not sure they should. His deal is really fair given the going rate in FA and his performance. If they throw in $4m each year for example, that is $10M ($2m this year and $4m in 2017 and 2018). We paid $3.5m for Miguel Sano. The other big international prospects were purchased for $4m a year. So I guess I don’t see $8-10m for a top 50 or 60 prospect.
  13. tobi0040
    Said another way, we are likely going back to the free agent market next offseason if we trade Ervin. How does his 2-27 compare with what guys will sign for? Seems like a reasonable commitment to me and with all the young talent coming up another 3-4 year deal is not ideal.
  14. tobi0040
    I would hold onto him until a few deals are made and a few teams start freaking out when their rivals make moves. If we can extract a top 50-75 propect, sure. I am ecstatic that we have Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, and Stewart all in AA. But they aren't all going to be up here and pitching well next April. Someone is going to flame out, someone is going to get hurt, another may make it a year later than we all thought, etc. So I am hesitant to move Ervin just to move him.
  15. tobi0040
    Good call on the incentives for Thorpe with an MLB salary. He started throwing a few weeks ago. Is there a precedent of a guy not appearing in games until basically 10 months after starting to throw (next May)? The part about him only pitching in A ball is kind of my point. But if you take him in a rule 5 that is part of the requirement. So I don't see how the A ball to MLB gap is an excuse to ease him along.
  16. tobi0040
    You could also play the setback card too. Although I don't know why Thorpe would have an incetive to play that game. I am sure the Twins would be kicking and screaming. But who knows. Games have been played before.
  17. tobi0040
    I can’t find the exact surgery date for Thorpe, but he was slated for TJ in March of 2015. Stretching his DL stint out to May of 2017 seems a bit long to me. That is 26 months. Joe Nathan, albeit one of the quicker paths back was appearing in games 12-13 months after his surgery.
  18. tobi0040
    I was about to type the same thing Diehard. Thorpe last pitched in low A ball in 2014. Hard to see how he sticks on a 25 man roster next April.
  19. tobi0040
    Being fair is good. And the Nunez and Abad deals have been good one's. But you lost me about every move being logical. I can't find the logic in rolling out Nolasco every fifth game. Or if they view May as a starter, it seems logical to move him about now Or providing so many reps to Danny Santana Or why guys like Berrios, May, and Chagois have such a short leash.
  20. tobi0040
    Spy, Please stop pointing out facts like the leverage index. It is sad enough to see the run differential, Mauer's 14 doubles, and So on. Adding in the inept decisions is just salt on a fresh wound. Next you are going to tell us that Mauer's 14 doubles have been at the top of the order all year........
  21. tobi0040
    Buxton's first stint was a 49% k rate. It is down to 33% in the second stint.
  22. tobi0040
    That is just it. The group leaves 5-7 games on the table each year. Not a big deal this year, I may actually prefer fewer so we can draft JJ Schwartz. But last year we were in the playoffs with a few more wins. Had they flipped Plouffe for a reliever and signed another good one, that may have been 5 right there. Those 5-7 wins will hopefully come in handy in the future. Let's get a new group here.
  23. tobi0040
    Yeah, he gets some blame. He also probably wasn't going to put up a .915 OPS this year, he was bound to come back a bit. Very few 22/23 year olds put up numbers like that. In fact, only 17 players this year have an OPS above .915. I think you and I likely agree completely in principle, however the degrees with respect to Sano we may differ a bit. Asking a 22/23 year old to do what they asked him to do would create a rotation between frustration, embarrassment, nervousness, anger, and resentment on a nightly basis. That is going to hamper anyone.
  24. tobi0040
    This is true, but I think the Sano example is not a good one. If I was asked by my employer to perform a job that I was simply not qualified to do (RF), and I tried and night in and night out looked like a fool in front of 15,000 people....my performance in other areas would suffer too. I bet he puts up a better second half if he sees time exclusively at 3B and DH.
  25. tobi0040
    That would be okay if they are going to keep Dozier. I think they have to trade one or the other. But we need to be very clear here. Nolasco is a net negative on any trade and by a very, very wide margin. If he was a free agent right now he probably gets a one year, $5m deal at best. More likely a minor league tryout type deal. Therefore the $18m or whatever he is owed the next 1.5 years with a buyout is way too much.
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