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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    The obvious response is I can't believe we are talking about moving vets and clearing spots for Berrios and Chargois on July 5th. This could have been done on May 5th. The only guys that won't be a salary dump if moved are Dozier, Abad, Santana, and Suzuki. Dozier is the only guy that could bring a top 100 prospect back. I bet we hang onto Dozier and Ervin though.
  2. tobi0040
    I read this the same way. Calling the entire season bad luck. More guys have been hurt or under-performed relative to 2015. But look at some of these guys we signed and/or were counting on: Nunez Milone Perkins who has been hurt the last two seasons Jepsen Murphy Park Nolasco Escobar Good teams don't count on these guys. And my favorite, instead of trading Plouffe and leaving Sano at 3B, Plouffe at 3B has a WAR of -2 and Sano is even (+.9 oWAR and -.9dWAR in RF). This was a man made disaster.
  3. tobi0040
    No reason Berrios should throw another pitch down there. And barring multiple 2 inning starts he should finish out the year with the Twins.
  4. tobi0040
    Wizard, That is just it. Terry has always took comfort in 1 year deals. He always has 20 million a year tied up in below average veterans in arbitration. The guys you listed. Duensing is a great example too. Or short FA contracts like Kevin C and Pelfrey. He has never understood these guys produce the same results as rookies and that money could be spent on actual good players.
  5. tobi0040
    When is the Plouffe trade and Nolasco DFA?
  6. tobi0040
    Our GM says May is a long term starter. We are going to need an incredible run to get to 60 wins this year. He is down in AAA working consecutive days out of the pen. Got it.
  7. tobi0040
    Yeah. I am not sure where all the love for Gibson stems from. Or where some think he is going to get really expensive. He was the number one guy we should extend before the season and many agreed. The reality is Gibson has a career ERA plus of 90 and is controlled through age 31. He has already had TJ and has been hurt a bit this year. With the signings of Nolasco and Ervin, and extension of Hughes I think it is time for a time out on signing pitchers into their 30's. It would not be the end of the world if the franchise understood the concept of a sunk cost. How many franchises would give a pitcher 52 starts at a 5.49 ERA (Nolasco)
  8. tobi0040
    Launder gets an F minus for explaining the Bush Story. "I think he signed initially as a short stop". While true, the guy was the first pick. And "he got into some trouble" He beat a high school kid with a golf club while yelling "I am Matt effin Bush". Then he drank and drove and almost killed a guy on a motorcycle and went to jail for it.
  9. tobi0040
    This team has no shot until they get new decision makers. Period. Call me when that happens. On a side note, has "Park Night" this Tuesday with a meet and greet going to be relocated to Rochester?
  10. tobi0040
    The starting pitcher is really a toss up. It could go either way. Nolasaco or Milone.
  11. tobi0040
    When Berrios comes back he better throw up about five straight gems. Otherwise he might as well keep his bag packed.
  12. tobi0040
    Very few teams platoon as well as TB. We joked that it would be one of 5-6 teams that would pick him up and use him appropriately. But we did get some cash. So that is pretty sweet.
  13. tobi0040
    Maybe we can squeeze Polanco into RF and negate his bat?
  14. tobi0040
    The article was not specific to Terry Ryan. It was a general thought about prospects and how long it takes some of them to turn out. I simply said the Twins, (not the Twins under Terry Ryan) have lost more than they have gained. If you have a specific thought or opinion regarding whether that is an incorrect statement, feel fee to make one.
  15. tobi0040
    Johan was the bulk of that and he was included. But again I was focusing on guys we have given up on versus other teams given up on. Trading Knoblauch or AJ for prospects is not a trade where either team is giving up on a guy. It is a standard producing veteran for promising prospects trade. That is not at all what the article was about.
  16. tobi0040
    Again I didn't include veteran trades because in the case of AJ, we were not giving up on the guy like we were Gomez, Ortiz, etc. But if you want to add Liriano and Nathan's 28 WAR with us, you should probably think about the 14 WAR AJ had. And while we are at it, we should probably lump in the Delmon trade. We got a WAR of 1.3 out of him and saw Garza and Bartlett go on to post 24 WAR. Or Ramos 7 WAR and counting, while Capps put up 2. At the end of the day, it is really silly to have to do any work at all to confirm we have lost more talent than we have gained. This should be very obvious.
  17. tobi0040
    Do we know if Sano will be at 3B or RF during the rehab stint? We heard that his "future" is at 3B. One would think if Sano's first game is at 3B, Plouffe may want to get a realtor.
  18. tobi0040
    Buxton has been back here 20 games. Through the first 15 he had a .259/.281/.444/.725 slash line with 6 XBH and a wRC+ of 88. His k rate was 31%. Then he had four games in a row where he was hitless and struck out a ton. At some point we have to let these guys struggle a little bit. I think it is a dangerous message we are sending prospects that the margin for error is basically zero. Meyer got one start. Chargois got an inning. Berrios a hand full of starts. Then after 15 pretty solid games, then four bad one’s we send him back down? Also, even with his disastrous first stint, his numbers are not that terrible against righties. He has a .639 OPS but a horrid .401 OPS against lefties. He seems to really struggle against breaking balls down and in against lefties. Yesterday he saw a steady diet of them from a lefty with a pretty good breaking ball. I question how many really good breaking balls from lefties he would see in AAA. In the at bat where he flew out to RF he must have seen about 8 pitches and fouled off several good breaking balls down and in. That is exactly what he needs to do and how he is going to improve.
  19. tobi0040
    I would leave Buxton up here. He looked completely hopeless the first go round. Then he went down and proved he can rip up AAA. He has looked better (although the bar was very low). Not like a starting CF in this league but to me he has shown signs of clicking. Yesterday was a really good game. 1-3 with a BB. He drove that one ball to RF and most RF don’t get to that. He swiped a bag and made two very nice plays in CF. The season is lost. I would leave him up here so long as the k rate stays below 35%, then 30%, and so on. First stint: 49 PA. .156/.208/.289/.497 49% k rate. wRC+ of 28. Second stint 76 PA .217/.253/.362/.616 36% k rate. wRC+ of 58. Given his speed on the bases and defense, I think he can be a value add player even with a .650 OPS in CF. His second stint is not that far from that. I think he would be a disappointment with that OPS but the reality is I think his development is best up here. The bigger issue I have is why the heck is Buxton still batting 9th? I put him 1st. I don’t care about the OBP. There should be no higher priority than getting him MLB at bats. I will take 4-5 per game over 3-4 all season long.
  20. tobi0040
    We are kidding ourselves here folks. Abad is having a career year, more than a run better than his career ERA. His FIP is .60 higher than his actual ERA. It is a small sample size. This is a 2-3 year extension waiting to happen.
  21. tobi0040
    Of the four guys of consequence, Johan, Ortiz, Hardy, and Gomez, all with the exception of Hardy were either prospects or in the period where they were adjusting to MLB. The article was about players who were prospects that came up and struggled and how long the adjustment can be. For the most part that was true of a few of these guys. You see guys not click until 26-27 all the time. Ortiz was 26 with 1,500 AB’s, two full seasons and parts of another three. He falls into the Jose Bautista/Chris Davis realm. Hardy was 27. He was almost reverse, a guy with a ton of success who the Twins must have concluded was never going to have another 27 HR, .800+ OPS season. If they thought he would I am not sure why you don’t pay him $5.8m to be the SS. Gomez was 23 when we traded him and the reality is he probably should have been in AA or AAA two more years. We had him on the MLB roster because we needed something to show for that Johan guy fans were used to seeing. Johan was 20 or 21. But if you feel this analysis and or conclusion is flawed, feel free to run your own analysis and prove this conclusion wrong. It is one thing to criticize someone else’s work, it is another to do your own and contribute to the dialogue.
  22. tobi0040
    I picked all stars because I didn't have the time. Feel free to take a crack with another Feel free to take a crack using a different metric. I think the fact is, we have lost three significant players and only plucked one. Was it meaningful? I think we would have won more games, mostly during a period of futility. But this is just one piece of the puzzle.
  23. tobi0040
    Hardy missed 60 games in his one year here and 40 the year before. However he was worth 1.8 WAR in those 100 games in 2010 and was only making $5-6M. He had hit 60 HR in his previous three years. And we traded him for a relief pitcher who was terrible, then ushered in a period where we ran out Nishi, Casilla, and Pedro Floriman at SS. The case could have been made that we didn't really have anything lined up, so keep Hardy and whatever he provides in innings would be better than the alternative. No way to slice this one. It was a terrible baseball move. I think you have three big misses and one the other way.
  24. tobi0040
    I think it is safe to say we did not see the potential in Ortiz, Gomez, or Hardy. I think we gave up to a certain extent. No? The Gomez for Hardy trade in my opinion was two org's who gave up on their guy. Milwaukee didn't think Hardy was going to be the guy he was and we flat out were down on the potential of Gomez. A few years later trading Hardy for Hoey tells me that we were writing off Hardy. In both cases as well as Ortiz, we would have been much better keeping them. I think the big tally is 3 to 1. Papi, Gomez, and Hardy to Johan. If we throw in the others and do more research but guess is we find a few more guys that made an all star appearance. But by and large the number of misses and WAR of those guys has been a net negative to the Twins. Is it development, coaching, talent recognition, financial concerns? I don't know. But it is a miss in my opinion.
  25. tobi0040
    Here are the Twins all stars from 2003 to 2015. Cuddy, Mauer, Mays, Dozier, Liriano, Santana, Justin, Nathan, Perkins, Hunter, Eddie G, Johan, Suzuki, and Hunter. With the exception of Johan and Suzuki, every one of these guys was either drafted by the Twins or acquired via trade when they were prospects or in their first year or two. They weren’t give up on by the other team as much as assets traded for. With Suzuki having a career 2 month stretch prior to his one appearance and overall being one of the worst catchers in the league. So that is what we have gained. On the other side of the ledger and I am sure I am missing a few, off the top of my head: Gomez, Papi, Hardy, Neshek, Balfour, and Crain Career WAR of Johan and Kurt with Twins was 36 (33 + 3) Career WAR of these six guys after leaving (Papi 50, Gomez 20, Hardy 15, Balfour 9, Crain 6, Neshek 4) So I come up with 104 WAR to 36. A 68 WAR gap, or 5.6 wins per seasons over this period. Now I get this analysis is not perfect. You could choose another metric other than all star games, I did because it was relatively easy to look up. I just don’t have four hours today. If someone else wants to look at this another way feel free to do the legwork. I am guessing the conclusion won’t materially change.
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