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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    It could be that Pohlad has seen enough from Terry Ryan that he doesn’t want him being the guy deciding who we get back in trades. I mean, Terry has to know we are sellers here. I guess they could disagree about 2017, i.e. should we keep Ervin or not. You never want to see someone fired, but this isn’t some working Joe making $35k a year with two kids and a wife. So I am not overly worried about Terry’s well-being. I am very shocked they did this right now. And it is questionable whether Antony is an upgrade or not. But this is definitely a step in the right direction, especially in conjunction with a search for a new GM. Someone above is right about needing permission, but most clubs welcome their #2 interviewing for a GM role elsewhere.
  2. tobi0040
    It is time to bring up Berrios AND give him a mimimim of 10 starts, come hell or high water.
  3. tobi0040
    Berrios should have been up already
  4. tobi0040
    I agree it is more of a body of work thing. I do have a strong bias towards someone who is not stuck in his ways, who constantly leans along with the competition, stays current, and is willing to alter his approach when something is not working. That is my opinion in life, not just for a baseball GM. Let's just say Terry Ryan has never really provided that warm fuzzy feeling in that regard.
  5. tobi0040
    Wow. I didn't see that. Thank you as well for the post. Great insight. You are also brilliant. Cheers.
  6. tobi0040
    Really fascinating stats Tobi. Good stuff. You are very brilliant. I also noticed today that Carson Fullmer is being called up by the White Sox. Did you know that he has basically the same innings and k numbers as Berrios, with a much higher ERA (4.76 to 2.59)? Except those are Fullmer's AA numbers compared to Berrios's AAA numbers.
  7. tobi0040
    Any word on if Buxton is healthy and playing tonight?
  8. tobi0040
    Yeah. Another interesting comp between Kahn and Smith. Taylor did exactly what the Twins need to do, go out and find a well regarded GM from a good program and hire a good coach. Both of which were external.
  9. tobi0040
    We are basically close now to Kevin McHale’s, post 2004 run. Which is about six years of futility. But the 2005-2009 Wolves “Futility” consisted being about middle of the pack for two years and then kicking in a full rebuild with the KG trade. McHale lasted as GM five years and that 2004 run was obviously deeper that TR has ever been, with two playoff series wins and being a final four team. Terry Ryan’s second run more resembles David Kahn’s tenure. That was a four year disaster and he was fired.
  10. tobi0040
    If next year is an option we can simply exercise, I bet that is what we do. Our GM has never let an unsustainable run stop him from extending a guy before.
  11. tobi0040
    After his first 3 relief apperances here were the numbers on Carlos Rodon: 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8k. He was moved to the rotation. Start 1: 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8k Start 2: 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 BB, and 5 k Start 3: 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 BB, 4 K. Total 22 IP, 4.09 ERA, 19 BB, and 25 k. He proceeded to stay up and pitch 139 innings that year. Berrios through his 15 IP had a higher ERA at 10.2 driven by his last 7 ER start, but his k rate was better (20k in 15 IP) and his BB rate was lower (12 BB in 15 IP). Back to the farm kid.
  12. tobi0040
    I am not rooting against anyone. I actually have been taping and just watching Sano, Buxton, and Kepler bat! I am just saying any outcome that leads the owners to keep Terry Ryan around is a net negative for the franchise. I see this as one of those that could.
  13. tobi0040
    That is the biggest issue for me. Terry just has the same playbook over and over and over again. It never changes, even after it fails for six years in a row. The worst thing that can happen in the second half would be a surge, led by young players that will somehow validate this rebuild to the Pohlad's. Which would keep Terry around longer.
  14. tobi0040
    Yeah, going back in time usually amounts to not putting yourself in the position the Twins put themselves in. The Kurt Suzuki signing, and extension is OK by many because of the lack of alternatives. Some are OK with the Jepsen trade because we needed BP help. The Pelfrey signing... Doesn't this kind of amount to a kid in high school who does not study for a test, then brags that he got a C minus without studying?
  15. tobi0040
    Or, addressing the issue in the offseason and just using money. Instead of tendering Duensing and taking a really bizarre and expensive flier in Tim Stauffer we could have used that $5.5m on an actual good reliever.
  16. tobi0040
    The really frustrating thing is we were out of the race on about April 25th, yet for two months and a half months it has been constant "when are we going to see Berrios, or Chargois, or Polanco, May in the rotation". In business if you have a terrible employee who has no idea what he is doing, You fire him. You don't ride out the next four months while he continues to screw things up further.
  17. tobi0040
    I think the fair criticism is did he go bold enough? Jepsen effectively just replaced the reps when Perkins went down.
  18. tobi0040
    I think it should have been obvious that Mauer, with the contract obligation going out to age 35/36 and past knee isssues was not going to be a full time catcher at 31/32. He should have been at best a 50% catcher. So any strategy that leaves Drew Butera catching 80 games deserves to be ridiculed. We may not agree on the succession planning. But we never made a large free agent commitment or top draft pick on the position, post Mauer. With the hole the Ramos trade left, I don't think we have done enough.
  19. tobi0040
    The Giants have done with Posey what we should have done. In the 27-29 range, they have Posey catching just over 100 games and playing first about 40 times (DH in the AL parks). They have Susac in AAA and a backup with a .680 OPS. They could have easily traded either their current backup (.680 OPS) or Susac who is in AAA for a reliever.
  20. tobi0040
    Ramos was not making any money at all and our 3rd best prospect, and the Twins had doubts about Pinto catching. History tells me when thaey have doubts about a catcher or SS defensively, they never play there. In 2011 Mauer was 28, with seven more seasons at $23m per year. The prudent thing would have been to give Ramos 30% of the reps starting in 2011 or 2012 as Mauer was transitioned away from catcher. Just an ounce of foresight would have prevented this.
  21. tobi0040
    I think there should also be some criticism around succession planning at the catcher position. It should have been apparent that Mauer was not going to be catching at 31/32 with that contract obligation. So the lack of investment in that position is the real issue. That leads folks to defend the signing of Suzuki because we had no other options.
  22. tobi0040
    Good call wsnydes. But it is a similar pattern. Those were two year deals and Hughes was a three year deal. Favoring short term deals over long term deals and the known/vet vs unknown or younger player.
  23. tobi0040
    I think the commitment issues have hampered the team in other areas as well (not just the pen). Terry Ryan always takes comfort in shorter deals. The issue is the two fold, players that are willing to accept shorter deals are not as good as players requiring longer deals. And is there really a difference between longer deals and $20-25m in shorter deals when you have them every season? The 2014 team had nearly $20m tied up in Correia, Pelfrey, Burton, Duensing, Kubel, and Bartlett. The 2015 team had $25m locked up in Hunter, Pelfrey, Duensing, Stauffer, Schafer, Boyer, and Fein. You avoid some of that dead weight and maybe you can sign an impcat player or two instead of guys like Willingham, Nolasco, or Ervin. It seems to me changing this approach will be one of the many pieces of low hanging fruit a new GM will find.
  24. tobi0040
    You can take minor league fielding numbers with a grain of salt, because a bunch of guys at 21 turned it around. But across 102 games last year in AA and AAA at SS, Polanco had 28 errors and a .935 fielding percentage. Nunez is supposed to be a bit of a hack at SS and his career fielding percentage is .956 there. I think that explains why Polanco has played almost exclusively at 2B this year (52 of 53 games with the 1 at 3B). So it looks like one of these guys needs to move. Polanco is going to be one of the better 15-20 2B in this league and likely very soon. So we can’t lose him for nothing. I would shop them both and take offer that makes the most sense. My target would be a catcher or SP. The reality is the 2017-2018 team will need more talent at those positions.
  25. tobi0040
    After your first sentence I thought you were serious. Whew.
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