tobi0040
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Everything posted by tobi0040
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When you brought up Hoffman, I looked to compare to Rivera. I was blown away at how much better Mariano's numbers were than Hoffmans. Hoffman 2.87 ERA. 141 ERA plus. 1.05 WHIP. 601 saves. 9.4 per 9. Rivera 2.21 ERA. 205 ERA plus. 1.00 WHIP. 652 saves. 8.2 k per 9 (it was the cutter....)
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I totally forgot about Pudge's connection. Makes him an unlikely first timer.
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This year had three first ballot guys. This stream of guys will be scaled back, as far as I can tell to 2020. I see one first ballot guy from each class from 2016 to 2020, leaving room for other guys to get in, starting with Piazza and liklely others. 2016 Ken Griffey Jr. 6th all time in HR, mainly out of CF. .907 OPS. 136 OPS plus. Crazy numbers considering most believe his numbers were cut short due to injuries. 2017 Pudge. One of the best hitting catchers ever. I think he won't struggle to get in like Piazza because he doesn't have PED whispers attached. 311 HR. Behind only Bench in career WAR among catchers. Big piece of the 2003 Marlins championship. If any of these guys does not make it on their first shot it would probably be him, but I think he gets in on his first try. 2018 Chipper Jones. .930 OPS out of 3B. 2,700 hits, 468 HR. .303 average, .401 OBP. .529 slugging. OPS plus 141. Thome is probably close, 612 HR, .950 OPS. OPS plus 141. But he played half his games at DH, so it is difficult to see how that will hurt him. He will get in eventually for sure. 2019 Mariano Rivera. Too dominant and a key piece to too many championships not to be a first ballot HOF guy. 2020 Derek Jeter. The numbers are just too good and like Rivera, a key guy on many world series teams. http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2014/10/20/predicting-the-next-20-years-of-hall-of-fame-inductees/
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2015 Twins offseason top 40 prospects list: 6-10
tobi0040 commented on Thrylos's blog entry in Thrylos' Blog - select Tenth Inning Stretch posts
You are definitely higher on Minier and Diaz than anyone else I have seen. I love the optimism and I don't have a strong opinion. The interesting thing I found is the log-jam the Twins could have if these guys turn out. We already have a questionable glove in LF (Arcia) and potentially another questionable glove soon at 3B who may need another home. Granted these guys may not be up until Mauer's deal is done or close to it....but I see a Jeter-esque end to Mauer's career. -
On a position basis, I don’t see a huge premium added onto Biggio, relative to others for the 3,000 hits. According to fangraphs, Biggio is 10th all time in WAR among 2B. Nobody above him played within 15 years of him and he is ahead of Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar, who are already in the hall. Among 1B, Bagwell was 7th all time. However you see this position littered with guys from this era. In the top 20, you have Pujols, Thomas, Murray, Raffy, Thome, and Mcgwire. In addition, many are penalizing him given PED whispers and the sniff test. I think that is his biggest issue. Walker was 27th all time OF, granted that is about the same range if you divide by three. The biggest issue for him, IMO is Coors Field. His career OPS was about .950, but at Coors across 600+ games he had an OPS of 1.172. The Crime Dog was the 30th 1B all time by WAR. I think the hall frankly does not care much for DH’s (Edgar). Jayson Stark actually came to the opposite conclusion, one of his learnings this year was that the milestones mean less. Although this was true more on the pitching side (300 wins) and the hitters he cites (Sosa, Mcgwire, Bonds, etc.) had PED issues. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12128470/five-things-learned-hall-fame-election
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But when you look at him in the context of a 2B, he is a no brainer HOF player. Almost an .800 OPS. 291 HR, 414 SB, in addition to the 3,060 hits.
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Which Twins Prospects Could Debut in 2015?
tobi0040 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The isssue with Berrios for me is they won't have him up here and his clock starting unless he sticks. So a spot start or something maybe if he is lights out and the need arises. I suppose after the deadline if a spot is open, then maybe. -
Four are in. Randy 97.3%, Pedro 91.1%, Smoltz 82.9%, Biggio 82.7% are in. Large move up to 69% for Piazza Clemens and Bonds still under 40%. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12128504/pedro-martinez-randy-johnson-craig-biggio-john-smoltz-voted-hall
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What are the odds one of Meyer and May make the team (assuming one in the pen). What are the odds just one and which would you suspect it would be?
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My question would be, for the sake of defense, what are the odds the Twins trade either Arcia or Vargas and leave the remaining guy at DH. Which would you see traded in that scenario?
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With those numbers, I would let it ride too.
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By my calculation, a 6 year deal would buy out three arb years where he may make a total of $13-15M, and two FA years where he could push $10M or more per year. Not much incentive for him to sign that
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I guess I don't get why pedro and bagwell are equal Pedro put up these numbers in the steriod era 2.93 era. Era plus 154. 1.05 whip. 3rd all time in k per 9. 3 cy youngs. 4 era titles. Should have had an mvp. I get he only had 219 wins but you can argue he was as dominant as any in the era
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Which Twins Prospects Could Debut in 2015?
tobi0040 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would put the odds of Meyer breaking camp as a starter at more than 10%. Not much though. Outside of Terry making one comment about a year ago about how the Braves and Cards brought up Medlen and/or Wacha, have the Twins made any comments about Meyer starting in the pen? -
You won't find a top ten ss list without ozzie smith. He had a 666 ops I haven't done the math, but I am guessing walker is about an 850 ops guy in the 1200 games outside of coors. Mcgriff was 880 and dunn 850. I think you have a lot of guys from that era in that range.
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Larry Walker is tough. Career OPS was .965, but his OPS at Coors field was 1.172. He played 600 games there. He hit 150 of his 380 HR there (40%) despite about 33% of his total games. The 350 he played in Montreals stadium his OPS was only .890. His career home/road split for OPS plus was 120 versus 80. I have not stripped out Coors field and compared his numbers to other players of that era, but that is a process that would need to happen before I voted for him. By contrast, Todd Helton had about the same career OPS, but his OPS at Coors field was only 1.048. So it looks like Walker was helped more by Coors field.
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If I picked a 4th guy, it would be Smoltz. 213 wins and 154 saves. But his overall numbers don't blow you away the way Pedro and the Big Unit's do. Definitely gets in, but my guess would be next year.
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I wonder who will be voted in this year? Seems like they have an un-written rule to only let in a few guys each year. I would think Biggio gets in because he was at 74.8% last year. Randy Johnson and Pedro look like first ballot guys to me. Pedro only ended with 219 wins, but his overall numbers make him a no brainer. Those are probably my picks for guys that get in this year. Others will get in, like Smoltz for example. I don't see this as a year Raines and Bagwell jump from the 50's to 75%....I don't see PED guys ever going in on the first ballot.
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When it comes to the likes of Clemens, Bonds, etc. I think the association should provide guidance to the voters. It is silly to me that you have 3-4 different thought processes among the voters. Some say they don't care, some say I care, but these guys were HOF players without the drugs, others say absolutely not if they failed a test, others say absolutely not if they were linked at all.....
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I think Dozier can be a good player at 32-33. Looking at the amount of money thrown at Jed Lowrie and Chase Headley now makes it appealing, to me to lock in two FA years at 8-9M a year.
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That league average hitter (OPS + of 98) at a premium position is still a net positive, on top of playing above average defense there as well. I could not find a ranking by position with OPS plus, so will default to OPS. In 2013, Dozier's OPS was .726. That would have made him 10th among 2B in 2014. So I don't think the downside is really a terrible scenario. Especially in a world where the likes of Chase Headley makes $44M over 4 years, Lowrie makes $23M over 3 years (in 2014 dollars) . I get that Headley is a 3B....but similar values. Regarding the trade vaue. I would not sign him to an extension strictly to increase his trade value. I prefer him being a Twin throughout that deal. But when we are running through scenarios, that is certainly one of them. I think we should leave it here.....we don't need to sign Dozier to an extension right now. Positives and negatives exist for both aproaches. I thnk the risk-reward favors signing him, you think it favors waiting, or maybe not at all (not sure if you stated which of those two).
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I do see another scenario though, which has a time-frame of only 1.5 to 2 years (less risk of healh issues and he does not need to produce as long). Under this scenario, we have Dozier to a team friendly deal with options buying out his first 2-3 FA years. Polanco is at AAA doing well. Under that scenario Dozier has a lot more trade value in my eyes than he would if he was a free agent in just two years (versus controllable another four) I think the downside could be the opposite as well....only if everything goes wrong. I think Dozier has to regress a ton at the plate to not be at least an average 2B.
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I guess for me, there are risks to both approaches. I have acknowledged that. I have been clear about which i would do. What I don't get is the lack of acklowledgement that good could come out of extending him. We could get a better price on Dozier. No?
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The counter argument is a guy that goes to free agency and is too expensive and leaves, or traded with no leverage. Each approach has risks.
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Dozier and those guys are apples to oranges. Arcia is a career .574 OPS against lefties. He could be a platoon player. Those other guys have not seen the big's and missed last year due to injury.
