Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

tobi0040

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,776

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    No doubt he is a stud. He can be worse and still really, really good. But my point is odds are he will be worse next year, so in the context of year over year analysis Sale is likely a headwind, not a tailwind.
  2. tobi0040
    I just don't see an appetite, on our part or other teams to go through with this transaction. With that, Mauer will be our 1B for the next four years and I think the closer he is to his career norm of an OPS of .860 versus last years .732 is a big story for turning around the Twins. For example, we are all really hopeful of Sano over Plouffe at 3B. I would bet the .128 difference between Mauer's career numbers and his 2014 is greater than the difference between Sano and 2014 Plouffe (.751 OPS). That puts Sano at .879 at a break-even.
  3. tobi0040
    Lots of theories in here. Everyone seems to have one of Joe. My eye test is that Joe seems to pull balls on the ground and go the other way more on line drives. Seems like to me the shifts in the OF and INF took away hits from him. The data Parker supplied, balls getting through the right side of the infield and BA on line drives to the OF seem to support this. If true, Joe would need to be a little less predictable. If we needed anyone on our team to make a hitting adjustment with the entire off-season to do it, I would pick Joe Mauer.
  4. tobi0040
    The White Sox always seem to under-perform their expectations. I remember when they traded for Jake Peavy and we were going to be in trouble. Same with Adam Dunn. Same with Bartolo Colon. Every time they make a move they are the AL central favorites it seems. Last year they won three more games than us, their pythag was actually 4 wins behind us and that was with 13 WAR out of Abreu, Sale, and Quintana. They were 4th in the central in runs, last in OBP and those were with really good production from Abreu, who based off the year 2-3 drop offs of Puig and Cespedes may not happen again. I realize this is a small sample size, but when pitchers go from no tape on a guy to a years worth, it makes sense. I have them ahead of the Twins this year, but I am not overly concerned about them long term.
  5. tobi0040
    I will take the over on his 2.17 ERA from last year.
  6. tobi0040
    True, but some players are riskier than others. Here is a for instance, bleacher ran a list of pitchers whose mechanics make them a "ticking time bomb". This was made in May, 2012. Of the ten pitchers named, here are a few that have already ran into issues: Jason Motte - TJ in 2013 Kimbrell - TJ later in 2012 after the list Pat Neshek - Actually had TJ in 2009, velocity has never come back. Twins gave up on him Kevin Herrera - Missed some time due a flexor tendon sprain Chris Sale - Missed time due to a flexor tendon spain Tim Lincecum - His velocity dipped quite a bit at a very early age, almost a 4 mph dip in his fastball between his age 24 and age 28 seasons. 6 of the 10 listed have had some sort of issues in just 2.5 seasons since the list was created. Marmol is on the list and probably hasn't pitched enough to get hurt. Seems like a higher rate than the general pitching population As a comparison, only 29 pitchers between all the minor leagues and major leagues had Tommy John in 2014 (18 MLB pitchers) and that was the worst on record. If each team uses, say 18 pitchers a year, I get a rate of 3.3% per year (18 / 540). Much lower than this 22% rate over 2.5 years. Mechanics and velocity play a huge role. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1179302-10-mlb-pitchers-whose-mechanics-are-a-ticking-time-bomb-to-serious-injury http://mlbreports.com/tj-surgery/
  7. tobi0040
    If their top three pitchers have seasons that look at all like the last few, they will be in the mix. If Rodon comes up and pitches well they have to be the favorites. The risk that nobody seems to be talking about is the health of Chris Sale. I think we are all taking his 5 WAR every year for granted. He missed 14 games the last two years, but it is the delivery and his elbow that I would be mosted concerned about. Guys that have an inverted W, especially on skinny frames do not have history on their side. Add in the sidearm and I am going to get real technical here, but violent flingy motion (VFM) and it does not look sustainable to me. He cut down on sliders dramatically last year, but he has thrown 2,700 of them in five professional years, up near 88-89 mph. Prior to this year, he has thrown over 30% sliders. If he is hurt, you start with a team that had 73 wins, then subtract 5. In that scenario 82 wins seems rosy.
  8. tobi0040
    Yeah, I can be convinced on Burdi, but not on Walker. The K, BB, and OBP numbers tell me he shouldn't be pushed along much faster.
  9. tobi0040
    spy, you can throw in Andrew miller and Cameron maybin in there as well.
  10. tobi0040
    Agreed. They have an owner willing to lose $30M a year on the team. A farm is not as important in that environment.
  11. tobi0040
    Yeah, the other point is that the 25 and under is a better gauge than simply looking at prospects. The fact that Meyer was not promoted helps our minor league rankings this year. Hopefully, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Burdi, and maybe even Berrios will graduate this year.
  12. tobi0040
    The Royals scored 27 more runs than they gave up last year. If Volquez puts up his career average of a 4.44 ERA instead of the 3.21 Shields had last year his 227 IP....that +27 run differential goes to -4. And that is penciling in repeats for Holland 1.44, Herrera 1.41, and Davis 1.00.
  13. tobi0040
    Valid point, but Shields is a year older and his pay is likely to be closer to $20M a year.
  14. tobi0040
    Hate is a strong word, but relative to others that have Berrios in the 30-40 range, Law is clearly the outlier. Mayo still has Buxton 1, Berrrios 32. He has the Twins as the top system. 6 in the top 36. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015
  15. tobi0040
    It would not break my heart to see them give Shields a 5 year deal.
  16. tobi0040
    Pretty much agree. I think it will be a tight, relatively wide open division. Not a particularly good division.
  17. tobi0040
    I don't see much resemblence to the Twins in 2011. The guys we had play really well in 2010 did not have the track record that Miguel Cabrera, Victor, etc. At the end of the day I think they still have the best lineup in division and I don't think it is really close. They outscored us by 42, Cleveland by 88, Chicago by 97, and KC by 106. So 90+ losses seems very, very unlikely.
  18. tobi0040
    I don't see them finishing outside of the top three in the division. They probably have two of the top three hitters in the division (Miggy and Victor), the other being Abreu. That will limite their downside. The pitching will take a huge step back, no doubt. Between age, payroll, and their farm system, this team is definitely a long term train wreck. This should work out perfectly with the Twins window.
  19. tobi0040
    After watching the results, the Vikings had to change their opinion of Christian Ponder.
  20. tobi0040
    Ashbury, It was a slightly fun shot at terry. But I think terry is wrong. I think we would miss a ton if we take one of the worst corner outfielders and throw him in center. Even for a few games.
  21. tobi0040
    oh contrare Brock. We have a 39 year old that our GM thinks can still play center.
  22. tobi0040
    Agreed. I think this year will be relatively open in the division. I could see three different teams winning, excluding KC and us (kc would be more likely than us though)
  23. tobi0040
    Kluber has to be a regression candidate. He peaked as the Indians 26th best prospect in 2010. In parts of three seasons he never had a league average ERA plus. Then at 28 he throws up a 7.3 WAR year with a 2.44 ERA They have some things going for them. But a few fewer wins from him seems certainly possible.
  24. tobi0040
    Leviathan, The preliminary twins discussions I have seen among posters here I think has included a fair assessment of twins regression candidates. I have seen Hughes, Santana, Escobar, Vargas, plouffe, and dozier all listed (could be others I forgot)
  25. tobi0040
    I think those are good points Jorgens about the pen and one win games. But implied there is that the pen has a repeat performance. Holland has been consistently really good. Herrera has had a bad year in the last three and last year was his best. But I am not really a believer in Wade Davis throwing up an ERA o 1.00 year in and out. By nature the pen is typically the most volatile position year over year. Shields had a WAR of 4.3 last year. Volquez replaces him and he has been really bad in many years since 2008. At the end of the day I think a lot of things need to break right for them to sniff 89 wins again. I will say 89 could take the division next year.
×
×
  • Create New...