tobi0040

My understanding is he picked up a circle change from Yohan Pino last year, but the FB and SL have been the same these years. In which case, working on a new pitch in AAA could lead to control issues. I don't think you get pitch fx data for minor league guys....but it would be interesting to see what percent of those changeups were for strikes relative to his other two pitches.

Maybe, he didn't really have control issues in 2012 and 2013. 2012 - 3.4 and 2.5 BB per 9. 2013 - 3.7 BB per 9.

Saying, he has control issues and those two pitches with control issues makes him a #3 starter. I get that. I guess I am seeing this differently though. I would view a ceiling under the assumption that his control improves and frankly, the .7 BB per 9 jump from 2013 to 2014 over 130 innings has caused a lot of concern. The BB's were not an issue in the mid 3's. .

How many #3 starters have two plus pitches? A 96+ fastball and a 89 mph wipeout slider? I think Baker in his prime. That is a #3 starter. He did not have those pitches.

It increases velo and general intimidation factors.

I get why some see him in the pen, since he hasn't been durable, repeatabe delivery causing injuries, etc. But the upside of a #3 starter does not make sense to me. I don't know anyone who argues that his fastball and slider are not plus. Just started developing a change. If that sniffs average....I see a much higher ceiling. I think he has the most upside in our system, which is a loaded one.

I agree that if he fails as a starter, he would probably be a really good reliever. But let's see if he fails as a starter first. Perkins went from a below average starter to a really good closer. I want to ensure we have pursued every avenue first. I don't think he should be moved to the pen after one more shoulder injury, I am not sure if that is what you are implying.

Step one is a good fu manchu.

Totally agree. He is 25. Velocty dips at 29-30. We have 5-6 years of control. Don't waste him in AAA.

If questions about his durability move him to the pen, I think the Twins are mis-guided. So what if he only goes 5 IP a start and has a 3.25-3.50 ERA? Ideally he goes 6-7 innings per start, but give me 170 innings at a 3.25-3.50 ERA over 60 at 2.50 ERA. Every day of the week. Craig Kimbrel has been about as dominant as it gets in the pen. He has a WAR of 7.7 over the last three years. 4.4 over the last two. So it took him about three years to achieve the WAR that Kluber an Kershaw achieved alone in 2014. Nine starters last year had a higher WAR than Kimbrels 2013 and 2014 combined. I wish we moved past these old school cut and dry rules, the pitcher has to go x innings and walk this many per 9, etc. At the end of the day, use your pitchers in a way that allows fewer runs to the opposing team. Let's not overthink it. It is really not that complicated. I think the biggest risk to Meyer is the Twins.

I would make May the the starter and use Meyer in long relief to start. Give him 3-5 appearances to break in to games that are 14-1. Then look to use him on a regular schedule out of the pen. Maybe that means he gets to pitch from the 7th to 9th every four days. Then when someone falters or gets hurt, he slides into the rotation. I like the comp to Randy Johnson, not because I think Meyer is going to be one of the best five pitchers of all time. But to highlight the risks of treating Meyer like all the other pitchers we have had. In his first 300 innings across three years, Randy had a BB per 9 of 5.4, then 7.8 (in just 29 IP), then 4.8. His ERA was 4.82 and 4.40. He finished his career with a BB per 9 of 3.3. But the Twins would definitely give up on Meyer as a 28 year old with 4.5 to 5 BB's per 9. He would be in AAA, then cut. He is a special talent. We need to give him extra leash and analyze his results a little differently. If he is striking out 9+ batters per 9 and giving up .7 or fewer HR's, under 8 hits per 9....look at his LOB % and see what type of walk rate is acceptable. A for instance, Meyer was 2nd in the international league in total walks last year. But he was 7th in ERA. His LOB % was 75. It has never been lower than 72% and has been a high at 79%. He led the league in K's and only gave up 10 HR.

Jimmer, I looked at fangraphs and could not find that data. Roster man, Love the thought. Enough with the scholarships. I hope that a condition to molitor accepting the job was under the premise that he will be given te best players, while specifically calling out pelfrey as an example of a scholarship. One can hope.....

Thanks for the info. If his fastball and change are plus, seems to me even an average hook will make him a very compelling MLB player. 6'5 lefty with velocity and two plus pitches. Those are pretty rare.

I struggle with the Boof and Meyer comp. I just looked up Boof's minor numbers, he had a career 3.94 ERA. His stuff just wasn't as good. I just think Meyer could give up 8 hits per 9 and 4 BB per 9 and that would be an issue. But a guy that gives up 10 hits per 9 and 3 BB per 9 can be promoted. We need to look at WHIP, then factor in that BB's are actually better than hits on a 1 to 1 basis, as hits can go for multiple bases and runners advance further on hits. Then also layer in the relationship between strand rates and k rates. If you do that, a slightly higher BB rate for guys like Meyer and May is not the end of the world.

I find it interesting. Nobody cares that he had 3.7 BB's per 9 in 2013. It jumps to 4.4 the next year, the equivalent of 10 additional walks across 130 IP and it becomes a huge issue. I think we have to be careful with both Meyer and May. I think the Twins are used to these command and control guys that dont' strike anyone out. Those are the types of guys that can't walk anyone. The margin for error for Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn is rather low. But when Meyer is striking out 10+ guys per 9, giving up 7.5 to 8 hits per 9, and averaging .5 HR's per 9 then the additional 10 walks need some further analysis. Guys that miss bats and rarely get squared up tend to strand runners. Please don't think I don't care about the walks at all. I just think an adjustment needs to happen and we could look at this a little differently with these types of pitchers

Well this doesn't help their chances. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12284767/victor-martinez-detroit-tigers-torn-medial-meniscus

To be fair, looking may not have taken a lot of effort. But searching for the guy that led the league in pitching over a two year period certainly was an efficient way to search through a lot of pitchers. I was going off you saying he had one plus pitch (which you said may not even be plus). Looks like other posters and even Law, who does not like him disagree (says plus fastball and change up). I just don't get the optimism about Kepler. I have found I am much less excited about him than others are and that is driving my opinions here. To me, Gonsalves is younger, has put up better numbers, and has more upside. Others disagree and that is fine. On a side note, if Gonsalves throws 95 as a starter and has a good change, he could be setting himself up as a high end reliever as a floor.

I guess what I see is a few disconnects. The guy has only one pitch, but has put up, at 18 in rookie leagues: 28 IP, .95 ERA, and 39 K. Then as a 19 year old in E-Town and Low A 65 IP, 3.02 ERA, 70 K. In total, a 10.5 K and 3.1 BB per 9. Seems like really good numbers with just one pitch. So if you start with those numbers and velocity and improve the breaking ball, it seems like he could have a higher ceiling than a #3 starter. Projecting anything of value out of Kepler certainly involves a lot of improvement upon what we have seen thus far.

His ceiling could be higher than some think. I think our scouts are too enamored with the fact that his mom was a figure skater and that we think he is athletic. My personal opinion aside, most would agree Gonsalves has a ceiling of a #1 or #2 starter. The likelihood of him reaching that obviously differs a great deal among them. Kepler will likely profile as a corner OF. So I have a tough time finding a ceiling for him as a corner OF that matches that of a top of the rotation, 6'5 lefty starter. So i have actual production and projection for Gonsalves higher, age favors Gonsalves as well. Maybe a wash if you buy the country change. The sample size is small, but I will take a good sample that is small over a 5 year, relatively mediocre sample.

I guess I don't understand why Gonsalves is behind Kepler. Gonsalves is progressing through the system a year earlier. Both have projections, but Gonsalves numbers have been dominant, whereas Kepler has had one good year in rookie ball (in just 59 games). I would argue Gonsalves has a much higher ceiling.

My 5th spot projection is May. Meyer starts in the pen. Pelfrey has to earn a spot in the pen.

I like the he wasn't fully healthy in the first half. The switch to 1B would probably impact him the most right away. The first half/second half splits others have offered provide me with some optimism.

He should make the team if he proves to be one of the best six relievers on the team. And getting something back for him should not be a factor in whether he plays or not. I have serious doubts of getting anything back, it would be a salary dump, best case. Time to get the kids some innings, both in the rotation and pen.

Wainwright, CJ Wilson, and AJ Burnett all have an inverted W and have had Tommy John. A few others that have had either elbow or shoulder issues and have an inverted W. Strasburg, Prior, Wood. Reyes. Bonderman, Marcum. Smoltz. Some come back and have good careers, some don't. But every time you have TJ you effectively miss two years. As you forecast the White Sox, I am not in a position to pencil in a 5 WAR for Sale. The only guys I have found with an inverted W and not had these issues are Gio Gonzalez and Chris Sale, although Sale has had a flexor tendon issue so I am not sure if you can count him. Certainly higher than a 3.3% ratio. Here is a pretty good article on the subject, with commentary from American Sports Medicine and Dr. Andrews, with the key here: "Problems usually begin below the waist. The most telling moment in a pitcher's delivery, for instance, is the foot strike. When the foot makes contact with the mound, the pitching arm must be up and ready to throw. A righthanded pitcher should be showing the baseball to the shortstop, a lefty to the second baseman. (Among active hurlers, Cliff Lee is a good example.) But if a pitcher's elbows come higher than his wrists and shoulders, with the ball pointing down, he's demonstrating an "inverted W" -- a sign that his sequence is off and he's fighting his own body. Such poor timing leads to arm lag, evident when the throwing elbow trails the shoulder once the shoulders square to home plate. Strasburg exhibits both problems, forcing him and others like him to rely more on the arm's relatively small muscles instead of the more massive ones in the legs and torso. Throw after throw, the shoulder and elbow are under extra stress. The higher the pitch's velocity and the worse the flaw, the more the arm suffers. And the more a pitcher throws, the worse it gets. Arm lag and improper sequencing were likely to blame for Strasburg's UCL tear, as well as for those of almost everyone else knocked out by the injury. "The timing is subtle," says the American Sports Medicine Institute's Glenn Fleisig, who has analyzed more than 2,000 pitchers and is one of the world's foremost authorities on pitching biomechanics. "It's the difference between good and great and healthy and injury-waiting-to-happen." Strasburg was probably in trouble from the get-go. He didn't rupture his UCL on one pitch with the Nationals -- even if a pitcher feels a pop on a particular pitch, his UCL was anything but pristine before the incident. Like a rope, Strasburg's UCL probably started to fray the moment he began pitching off a mound, the extra height of which can compound the stress of each pitch. It likely got worse not only because of his mechanics. Kids who throw the hardest pitch the most: They get hitters out. Famed orthopedic surgeon James Andrews, who founded ASMI in 1987, says he has seen a five- to sevenfold increase in high schoolers requiring UCL reconstruction since 2000. "The No. 1 risk factor for UCL injuries is poor mechanics," he says. "The No. 2 factor is overuse. And if you overuse with poor mechanics, you're doomed." http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7712916/tommy-john-surgery-keeps-pitchers-game-address-underlying-biomechanical-flaw-espn-magazine

I stand corrected on Kimbrell. I must have been thinking Medlen or Beachy. They pulled a list together of 10 guys with violent deliveries. Two of those have had TJ in their careers. Two have had flexor strains. Two have seen their velocity decline, Lincecum pretty early and dramatic and Neshek's at 30 went down about 6 mph. Note I am double counting on Neshek (TJ and velocity). Very limited sample size and the data available on this topic is not great and time consuming. But I stand behind Chris Sale having a higher risk of an elbow or shoulder issue relative to other pitchers in the league. That is really the point. Most of the guys with the inverted W seem to have elbow or shoulder issues throughout their careers. Look at these pitchers, see any trends? http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/PitchingMechanics101/Examples/InvertedW.html