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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Regarding time value of money, all the other contracts we are comparing with are also reduced as well, not as much because they are stretched out as far, but Kershaw's deal won't technically be $210M either. This logic would result in more longer team deals, which does not seem to be an ideal situation for teams. And we don't know how the defferred money will impact future payroll, so that is a wild card. The Mets are still making payroll decisions based on Bobby Bonilla and many other players, such as Griffey, Johan for the Mets, A-Rod, etc. have deferred money still owed to them. It is hard to evaluate these deals if they are impacting future teams and neither one of us know if that is the case. The Nationals were 9th in runs last year and LaRoche, WAR be dammed was 3rd in both OPS and OPS plus on the team. So one could argue they had a more immediate need in the lineup rather than the pitching staff. They have at least as much uncertainty in the lineup as well, Span is in his last year and Harper is in the same boat as Stras. The difference is $210M could have bought them 3-4 really nice bats.
  2. tobi0040
    A WAR of 4 would have put him 16th in MLB last year. I am of the belief you are always going to overpay in free agency and maybe this contract was "fair" given what he is worth in free agency. That is why I was okay with the Twins signing Ervin. It isn't going to be a value deal, but we absolutely needed to improve our starting rotation. The Nationals led the league in ERA last year and it wasn't even close. They have a decent mix of guys under contract, guys going year to year, and guys like Roark who has a ton of control left. In addition, Lucas Giolito is rated as the 8th best prospect in baseball and they have the 56th best guy as well, also a starter. So I just think the value Max provides at ages 30.5 to 37.5 over the alternative is worth a heckuva lot less than $210M. This deal 2-3 years from now could easily fall into the somebody please take this from me category. They were 9th in runs last year and lose 26 HR and 91 RBI from LaRoche. Seems like more of a need.
  3. tobi0040
    You and I don't know that a comparable offer was on the table, unless I missed that story. Anyone could argue that Kershaw is the top pitcher in the game, so I would hope 7-210 is about the ceiling for a deal. Especially for a Zimmerman or Strasburg. If the Nats offered 7-180 to both of them, my gut says at least one would take it. Especially Strasburg. He has two more years of injury risk. That is probably about the ceiling for Zimmerman anyway.
  4. tobi0040
    Me too. It will be interesting to see it play out.
  5. tobi0040
    I like Gonsalves where you have him. I am equally as high on him.
  6. tobi0040
    But my point is, either one of Zimmerman or Strasburg would have likely signed the same deal and they are 2 and 4 years younger (so they would have certainty). It would probably not have cost as much given Zimmerman has 1 year left of arbitration and Stras has 2 or 3. While it is true that Boras does not have a history of accepting early deals, to my knowledge nobody has offered one that was $200M. He has a duty to present those to his clients, both would have a hard time saying no to that kind of money. Career Numbers: Strasburg (26 yrs) ERA 3.02, FIP 2.84, ERA+ 128, WHIP 1.08 Zimmerman (28 yrs) ERA 3.24, FIP 3.31, ERA+ 120, WHIP 1.14 Max (30 yrs) ERA 3.58, FIP 3.39, ERA+ 117, WHIP 1.21
  7. tobi0040
    I think think my article was cherry picking at all. How many pitchers that were signed to 7+ year deals at 30 or longer turned out to be good deals? It is easy to rattle off 5-6-7 really bad one's. I honestly can't think of any that turned out to be good deals. Or even a 6 year deal when the guy started at 30 or longer.
  8. tobi0040
    I guess that is a conclusion that I disagree with. And comparing the 7 year deals of those three guys seems very silly to me. For one, Kershaw and Felix have been dominant their whole careers, versus Max who kind of struggled a bit over four years, before having three good years. Secondly, those deals cover the ages of 25-32 and 26-33, versus Max's 30.5 to 37.5. Huge difference. Here is a story that goes more along the lines of my thinking. A - these deals rarely work out and B - to see a team do this that has younger pitching, arguably one of the best rotations already is silly. If the Rockies did this deal because they had to....I could at least understand that. http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2015/01/19/washington-nationals-will-regret-money-spent-on-max-scherzer/
  9. tobi0040
    I get the time value of money concept. What I also get is that contracts in the 7 year range handed out to guys around 30 year has been a really, really bad proposition for MLB teams. Here is a really quick few that turned out really bad. If we want to compile a good and bad list, I am positive this will be at least 2-1 bad to good. Barry Zito - 1 WAR across 6 seasons at 30+ Johan Santana - 4.6 WAR as a 31 year old. Hurt all of 32. .2 WAR at 33. Effectively out of baseball at 34. Kevin Brown - the exception, actually pitched well up to 34 (named the Mitchell report however). Averaged 3.2 WAR after age 34. Mike Hampton - averaged .7 WAR after 30. CC Sabathia - Averaged 1 WAR a year from 31 to 33 Justin Verlander - 1.1 WAR last year at 31, in the first year of a 7 year deal. Huge velocity drop. Probably the reason the Tigers passed on this one. Of these guys, Brown, Johan, CC, Verlander, and Zito all had a higher 3 year peak WAR than Max's 16.9 (what is used to justify the deal). Brown 23.6. Johan 23.3. Verlander 20.8. CC 18.3. Zito 17. Max 16.9. His peak WAR is only better than Hampton on this list at 14.8.
  10. tobi0040
    I think you are using really shaky logic here. I get the time value of money piece. But pitchers tend to really hit a wall, get hurt a ton, regress, around 33-34 years old. That is great that it is $15M a year, but what about the $15M a year they will be paying Max from ages 34-38, or better yet, the $15M a year for seven years they will be paying him when he is no longer on the team? Also pretty shaky logic, IMO. It is tough to take a pitchers prime, ages 27-29 and use that to justify a deal in the 30.5 to 37.5 seasons. Additionally, in the case of Max, he averaged 1.8 WAR in the four years prior to the three you cited. At the end of the day, these deals rarely work out. They effectively gave Max the same deal Kershaw got. Two huge differences though, age and performance. Kershaw's deal covers him from 25 to 32 and he is hands down the best pitcher in this era.
  11. tobi0040
    True, Stras is a Boras client. But they would have leverage given he is not a free agent for two or three years. Again, the broader point is Max will be almost 31 by the time this seven year deal starts. As others have noted, his velocity has already started to drop a bit.
  12. tobi0040
    ERA + factors in league. Max's career is 117, Zimmerman 120, and Stras 128. The biggest factor here is age. They have cheaper and likely better options over the next seven years. Before teams shell out money for Boras clients on long term deals, they should look at a few of the doozies he has gotten for his clients in the past. Then ask themselves, was this a good deal for the team? A-Rod, Choo, Zito, Werth, Teixera, Ellsbury, Fielder, Dice-K, etc. 2-3 years into every one of these contracts, teams would have taken back salary to dump these guys.
  13. tobi0040
    Signing Max to this deal at 30.5, versus investing in a 26 year old Strasburg or a 28 year old Zimmerman will be a huge mistake. Career ERA's. Stras 3.02, Zimmerman 3.24, Scherzer 3.58. Stras has 3 more years of control, something tells me if they through 8-190M at him he would take it. Much rather have Stras at 26-34 than Max at 30.5 to 37.5.
  14. tobi0040
    To expand on this, here is a comp, career road numbers vs. 2014. Granted some of the road numbers were in 2014: Career Road Record 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .249 BA, 7.5 K per 9, 2.42 BB per 9, .7 HR per 9 2014 Stats 3.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .265 BA, 8.0 K per 9, .7 BB per 9, .7 HR per 9 The only glaring differences are BB per 9 and WHIP. But the numbers overall are relatively similar. If the K rate and HR rate stay the same and he keeps an improved BA rate.....he could come close to repeating 2014 IMO. In roughly the same amount of innings, he has given up 87 HR at home and 41 at home.
  15. tobi0040
    In addition to the psychology, I think his numbers in the new Yankee stadium make his 2014 look like a bigger abberation. Prior to last year, I looked at his ERA outiside of Yankee stadium, it was just over 4.00. Much better than his career 4.50 ERA at the time. His career road numbers, 3.79 ERA, .249 BA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.5 K per 9, 2.42 BB per 9
  16. tobi0040
    If you are Johan though, wouldn't you sign with a team with less depth? Funny given the last four years, but there has to be a team with fewer bodies and/or at least fewer guys that the team wants to succeed.....Nolasco, May, Meyer, Gibson, etc.
  17. tobi0040
    I think if he is near 90 mph with the heater, he gets a major league deal. I don't think a major league deal with us makes sense.
  18. tobi0040
    Why did Gonsalves only get 14 starts last year and 65 IP? Was he hurt? Or just because E Town starts late? If he is healthy I think you could argue a jump up.
  19. tobi0040
    Seems to be some assumptions regarding Mauer, that we wouldn't keep him around at 35. I see a chance we pull a NY-Jeter and keep him around even if it may not be the best thing.
  20. tobi0040
    Just a guess and speculation. Maybe the three guys were benched because they weren't preparing, were late. Hung over. Something like that. In that scenario, hard to be ticked at Baerga. The owner may have been upset because the fans paid to watch the key guys and Baerga, a vet wanted these guys to learn a lesson and develop.
  21. tobi0040
    I get that he will add weight, but he has 21 HR in 900 AB thus far. I see his profile more in the mold of Carl Crawford, 15-20 HR and 60 SB versus say a Mike Trout, 35 HR and 30 SB. For the record, I think his ceiling is a much better player than Crawford. Specifically, the fact that he is a CF and will be outstanding versus a potential liability in a corner like Crawford (the arm will be a huge difference)
  22. tobi0040
    I would probably put Buxton #1, given the high floor he has. I don't see his defense or speed going away. So even if he hits .250, 10 HR, he is going to give you plus defense in CF and swipe 40-50 bags. That is still a pretty good CF. Sano, worst case could end up being a DH type that hits .250 with power and strikes out a lot. I think the CF trumps the DH in that scenario. On the ceiling side, Buxton is a .280-.290, 20 HR, 15 3B, 50-60 SB player who plays really good defense at a premium position. I would probably rate that better than Sano, even if he sticks at 3B and hits .260 with 30 HR a year. It is probably unlikely that he will ever be a plus defender.
  23. tobi0040
    The only other comment I have is, on what basis do you have Sano ahead of Kris Bryant? His stats are comical .327/.428/.666/1.095. 52 HR in 174 games. I know he was 22 last year versus Sano at 21. They have effectively the same k rate in the minors, Bryant looks like he will hit for a higher averaage, as most concede Sano may end up being a .260 or so hitter in the big leagues.
  24. tobi0040
    I guess it comes down to if last seasons numbers for Buxton were a huge red flag, showcasing a guy that can't hit. Or a throwaway year in which virtually every at bat was effectively a rehab type situation where he had not seen a pitch in weeks, then played 4-6 games and had another injury. I guess I am curious why the write up had no mention of 2013? It seems to me that a healthy player that played 125 games and had 575 AB's and put up the following line has the makings of a good hitter, certainly answered the question about whether he has the skills to be a league average hitter: .334/.424/.520/.944 12 HR, 18 3B, 19 2B and 55 SB to boot. The other omission with regards to Buxton is defense (for example, Polanco's defense was talked about). By any scouting report, Buxton will be a plus defender, both with his range, glove, and arm.
  25. tobi0040
    Some have argued that instead of a checkbox, they should have a yes or a no. That would be ideal. A guy is either a hall of famer, or he is not. This 7-8 times on the ballot thing is just dumb. As Bert used to say, I haven't thrown a pitch but my vote count jumped....
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