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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I like the deal, had we waited a year and he pitched well, 3-42 would not have happened. He would have been staring at $80-100M deal a year from then. Even if he throws up a 4.00 ERA next year, 3-42 seems a little light.
  2. tobi0040
    Love the deal. Prior to last year, he was a pitcher with an ERA just over 4.00 if you remove the new Yankee stadium starts. So if he regresses back to that point, $13M is actually less than he would get in free agency. Of course, you have a potential #1 starter at a very reasonable price for many years.
  3. tobi0040
    I agree that is what will happen. If you read the history on Hicks and switch hitting, it is telling. He hit right until he was about 11. His Dad, who did not want him to play baseball made him take up switch hitting as a means of testing his desire for the sport. I don't know about you guys, but I was always right handed. If someone forced me at 11 to start hitting from the left side I would struggle big time. I don't ever think I would be competent, it is not my natural side. Let alone ever be a competent professional from that side. For my two cents, I bet he puts up better than a .548 OPS against righties if he batted from the right side, where he hits lefties to the tune of .750. But the Twins keep forgetting to ask me.
  4. tobi0040
    I really wish I could argue with you here. But I got nothing.
  5. tobi0040
    I think you are selling Ervin a little short here. I had him as the 4th best pitcher on the free agent market, behind Max, Shields, and Lester. Some guys may have more upside like Masterson, Anderson, etc. but they are not nearly as consistent as Ervin has been. True, he is a veteran, he eats innings, he loves baseball, can mentor guys, etc. But he is by my count our second best pitcher as well. This was not a Torii Hunter signing.
  6. tobi0040
    I would only draft a left hander if I thought he was going to be a better major league player than another guy. I never understood the you need a lefty in the rotation thing. That type of logic ensures you have your 8th best pitcher in your rotation because you somehow think it is going to make the other four better, which I don't believe is the case.
  7. tobi0040
    It is not a bad move because it is only two year deal and he has upside. But I am always very wary of the guys with funky deliveries. They seem to either have it or not from year to year. Tim Lincecum, Dontrelle Willis, and Volquez too. He as great last year, but the last really good season prior was back in 2008.
  8. tobi0040
    It is not a bad move because it is only two year deal and he has upside. But I am always very wary of the guys with funky deliveries. They seem to either have it or not from year to year. Tim Lincecum, Dontrelle Willis, and Volquez too. He as great last year, but the last really good season prior was back in 2008.
  9. tobi0040
    Some competitors do exist. Andrew Albers made more money in Korea than he would have in MLB/AAA. If you want to make serious money, north of $10M than MLB is probalby the only game in town. But it isn't as dramatic as MLB or Burger King.
  10. tobi0040
    I guess it is the write ups. Last year you would have read how Rodon "Is a clear number 1 and it is not even close". Or "no way Beede gets past the Cubs at 4". Those types of things.
  11. tobi0040
    I don't think the Twins believe we think the best way to add rotation talent is through free agency. I think the Nolasco and Santana signings signal that at this point in time, we don't feel like we have enough sure things in house, thus we were more or less forced to participate in free agency and add. I think it got to the point where three-four years in a row of having a terrible rotation was too much. The typical bargain bin signings to "stabalize the back-half of the rotation", i.e. Pelfrey and Correia did not pan out. And as the article alluded to, the Twins have seen some prospects really struggle (Hicks) and others get hurt (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Stewart, etc.). That probably changed the approach of we can just wait for 25 young guys to come up and claim all the roster spots.
  12. tobi0040
    Certainly 18 year old prospects would benefit and get more money if they could jump right into free agency. But that would be horrible from a partiy perspective. That is why this area will be reformed for international prospects/free agents.
  13. tobi0040
    I think a draft is still the best system. They just need to tweak some of the rules. If Houston could have either offered Aiken $6M or lost the #1 pick and only received a 10th rounder in return, it would not have been so bad for Aiken. Instead they tried offering him like $3M knowing he was really boxed into a corner.
  14. tobi0040
    As often happens, the topic of discussion veers away from exactly what the headline reads and towards something semi-related. In this case, the tone of the comments was a feeling of missing out and worry, then quickly pivoted to several suggesting the White Sox could win the division. Regarding "winning" day 1, I think we would need to define what that means. They signed/traded for the most players and certainly would win the award for the most bold moves on day 1. I just don't think that their moves were as dramatic as they were made out to be and I don't think they are favorites to win anything. Again, I would not trade positions with them.
  15. tobi0040
    Thru 7/30, Simon had a 2.84 ERA. His BABIP was .244. FIP 4.36, xFIP 3.96. Left 83% on base. Struck out 5.68 per 9. Ended the year with a 3.44 ERA as things normalized. Career rates 75% LOB, .282 BABIP. Same K rate basically. Really a silly trade for them.
  16. tobi0040
    That is the issue for me. If a team has the #1 pick and gets cold feet, they may think the #2 pick the next year will be better and they have a ton of leverage over the player. MLB needs a bigger penalty if they make don't offer slot type money....like what Diehard proposed
  17. tobi0040
    Did he refuse to go to college based on a promise of $1.5M? That seems wrong to me.
  18. tobi0040
    I starting following prospects very early last year (maybe not quite this early). But everything changed so much from March to the draft that in hindsight it was a waste of time. Guys that were in contention at #1 and I thought we had no shot at went 10 picks behind us, guys like Aiken shot up past us. I am trying not to get caught up as early this year. Show me a few weeks out and I will start spending time on it. I would say, from a position standpoint I would think the Twins would take note at how quick Schwarber and Zunino have moved (although Zunino probably moved too quick). A college catcher in that mold would seem tempting to time with the core guys that we have. Assuming we conclude Pinto is not the guy. Mock from March of last year: 1. Rodon 2. Hoffman 3. Beede 4. Turner 5. Kolek 6. Jackson 7. Gatewood 8. Gettys 9. Nola 10. Reid Foley 11. Aiken 12. Gordon 13. Pentacost 14. Zimmer 15. Holmes Actual draft: 1. Aiken 2. Kolek 3. Rodon 4. Schwarber 5. Gordon 6. Jackson 7. Nola 8. Freeland 9. Hoffman 10. Conforto 11. Pentacost 12. Medieros 13. Turner 14. Beede 15. Newcomb http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/03/2014-mlb-mock-draft-5-0-top-41-picks-2556008.html
  19. tobi0040
    My point was that the sky is not falling. I would not trade franchises with them right now.
  20. tobi0040
    The interesting thing about the Royals is that their record outperformed their run differential last year. They only scored 27 more runs, yet were 16 games above .500. Then they lose Shields and potentially get some regression out of Ventura (FIP of 3.60 versus a 3.20 ERA). They look like a .500 team. With the White Sox, I think Abreu regresses quite a bit and that knocks out some of the gains they have added in free agency. I also don't know when, but Sale's delivery looks like a long term vulnerability.
  21. tobi0040
    Just one prediction from ESPN's Schoenfeld. The comment at the end about raising the division flag relates to the title (the path towards a division title for each team. White Sox 78 wins (5 more wins). Twins 76. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/53956/path-to-the-playoffs-al-central
  22. tobi0040
    If you are pencilling in players at any age basec on their best season in most cases to sum up the WAR. I should be able to at least pencil career averages on the other side of the ledger. Age is part of the issue. the other part is they are adding a ton of payroll and are not a contending team and basically paying them all based on peak production. History has not been kind to these types of decisions and the scenario to 90 wins assumes they all pan out. On top of other guys currently on their team repeating great years and staying healthy.
  23. tobi0040
    Well Hunter was signed to give pep talks and run over catchers. I honestly don't think the Twins expect much, if any production out of him. Of course they won't say that. So Ervin and Nolasco, two pitchers who AVERAGE, not career year, who average 4.17 and 4.30 ERA's. That only gets you to about $26M and clearly would improve the Twins. Ervin has averaged 1.7 WAR per season, Nolasco 1.2. So we have added 3 wins. Halfway there. Still have $26M to spend. If we get the 2008 Ricky 4.8 WAR and 2010 or 2011 Ervin at 3 WAR, we are really cruising. Added 7.8 WAR. They are replacing negative WAR guys. Let's call it 10 wins with half the money still left.
  24. tobi0040
    Do you think it would be possible for a 73 win team to sign five players, adding $52.5M to next seasons payroll and not improve? I mean they could have signed 4 Nolasco's and every one theoretically could drop off the career norms, but it would be extremely unlikely for that to happen. Clearly they have improved. But every single decision is risky, they are over-paying, and adding 30+ somethings, many coming off career years. These are not the type of decisions that should scare us at all.
  25. tobi0040
    That might have been the most optimistic summary I have ever read. If these were Twins players, virtually every single one on the Twins thread would be in the regression bucket. LaRoche has had 2 or more WAR 3 x in his career, out of 11 seasons. He has actually been negative twice and at 0 one other time. Jeff S. WAR by year: 2011 - 1.1 2012 - 1.8 2013 - 1 2014 - 3.7 Penciling him in for another 3.7 seems a bit rosy. Career year out of Sale with a full run better than the last few years, sure pencil him in for another as well. Abreu, sure he won't regress off the .964 OPS like Puig or Cespedes did year 1 to 2. Lock it in. 2014 Robertson and Duke summed a WAR of 2.4. Duke's K per 9 basically doubled his career averages and his ERA was half his career average. If five or six guys had career years and are just penciled in to get to 90 wins, I am taking the under.
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