tobi0040

The hack comment was slightly tongue and cheek. Here is my personal opinion. He became an above average defensive 1B in one season. His numbers at the plate were not Joe like, but he did come back from a concussion and switched positions, putting up a 107 OPS +. Which is not shabby. I aslo think he needs to and will adjust to the way defenses play him. If he normalizes to an OPS in the .820 range he would have ranked as the 8th best 1B in all of baseball. The fact that the Twins gave him $23M a year through his age 36 season is the Twins issue, not Joes. Very few players would have said no, pay me less. If he never normalizes, it would have been the result of concussion issues which are really not his fault. Given that....some of the following comments on this thread strike me as off -base: He is a below average 1B. We could just put Vargas there. He is a mediocre 1B He needs to be moved down the batting order to 5 or 6 to avoid all the rally killing double plays He needs to play catcher As long as he has an OPS of .950 I am okay with him (3 players in baseball did that last year) You need 40 HR's at 1B (one player, an OF did that last year)

Just curious how you get to $95M for 2015? I have us likely losing $20M in Hunter, Pelfrey, and Plouffe (if traded). I think you have other minor tweaks that could free up salary, notably in the bullpen as you cut guys like Duensing in favor of Burdi, Reed, etc. I have us going to at least $85M as a starting point (before increases) and I would think a high point could be $115-$120M. If they went to $115M in 2010 I would think another five million would be attainable five years later with increased MLB revenues and a better cable deal.

I would rather have Ervin than Liriano or McCarthy. No doubt. $13.5M a year is not bad for a guy that could easily be a #2 starter for at least the first two years.

Zimmerman is a Boras client and they are asking for really good prospects. It just is not a match.

Here is what I have concluded. Here is the player we sign, and the reaction. Max - We gave $200M over 7 years to a 30 year old pitcher. Lester - We gave $155M to a 31 year old pitcher that is not elite. A 3.58 ERA is not elite. Shields - We gave $100M to a 33 year old pitcher that is not elite and has declining k rates Ervin - We gave 4 years to a guy that is not an ace and is going to block someone. Just about anyone else under Ervin, let the kids play and we are dumpster diving. If we had let the kids play - we are cheap and never buy free agents. We should have the money. We "stood pat" with one of the worst ERA's in baseball. I assure you even those that think they want us to stand pat, would be kicking and screaming in June when Milone struggles or god forbid Pelfrey sees the mound.

So should we never sign a free agent pitcher?

Here are a series of reasonable assumptions that have me a little baffled at why more are not on board with Ervin Santana -Our pitching has been awful for 4 years, the biggest reason we have been so bad -He would be our second best pitcher, outside of injury, it would seem unlikely we will have five pitchers better than him in the next 2-3 years. If a bunch of guys pan out and Ervin is our 5th best pitcher with a 4.10 ERA, we are a contending team and that is a great problem. -Guys in the rotation get hurt. Others you think wiill pan out don't always pan out. Most young pitchers that come up end up being sent back down to work on something. -The team is always ripped on for not spending in free agency. Best I can tell they paid for the 4th best FA pitcher on the market -A 3-4 year deal here should not alter, in any way future payroll. In other words, Hughes or Dozier should not have to leave because we have Ervin Santana on our team. The contract expires when Sano, Buxton, Meyer, May, etc. start to get expensive.

Here is a fantasy profile on Graham: Position: RHP DOB: 01/14/1990 Height/Weight: 6’0” 195 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Acquired: 4th round, 2011 draft, Santa Clara University (Santa Clara, CA) Previous Ranking: #4 (Org) 2014 Stats: 5.55 ERA (71.1 IP, 79 H, 50 K, 26 BB) at Double-A Mississippi The Tools: 7 FB; 6 SL; 5 potential CH What Happened in 2014: Graham’s return from shoulder injury was marred by inconsistency and loud questions about the overall profile. Strengths: Good strength despite average size; balanced delivery; fluid arm action; heavy fastball at 92-94; sinking action with arm-side life; tough to barrel cleanly in lower tier; able to reach for more and selectively elevate past hitters; feels slider well; cutter action to the pitch; sharp, late break across zone; can miss bats; flashes feel for changeup; shows quality action despite harder velocity (85-87); command of all three pitches; comes right after hitters . Weaknesses: Not the best of downhill throwers; fastball loses movement in upper tier; can struggle to finish delivery; will leave heater up in the zone where it is more hittable; must work down to get most out of movement; slider lacks off-the-table break; needs more depth to be true chase pitch; change blurs with fastball in upper band (87-89); loses action and floats; questions on return from shoulder injury still linger; seemed to lack trust in 2014. Overall Future Potential: High 5; no. 3/4 starter Realistic Role: 5; late-innings reliever (setup) Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; 152 1/3 Double-A innings; shoulder injury in 2013 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: With an imminent ETA, Graham is still a top-5 fantasy prospect in this system, even with the belief that he’s likely a reliever at the major-league level. If he can make the rotation work, there would be strikeout potential, and he could be a high-end reliever, if healthy. The Year Ahead: The right-hander seemed to still be feeling the fallout of his 2013 shoulder injury. When on, Graham comes right after hitters with two plus-to-better pitches, in the form of a heavy fastball and darting slider. The heater is an outstanding offering in the lower tier of the zone, with strong downward action and good velocity that makes it a tough pitch to fully square up. Graham can then change the angle and eye level on batters by frequently working the slider into sequences. The late break also makes it tougher to fully barrel. Things can go awry for the 24-year-old when the fastball is creeping too far above the middle of the thighs, where the good movement diminishes and it’s on the flat side. This was more of a trend this past season for the righty. Most sources spoken to for this list thought that Graham most likely slots in a relief role at the ultimate level. I’m not ready to fully rule out a chance he’ll stick in a starting role, but a big rebound is needed to prove it. Major league ETA: Late 2015 The nit I have to pick here is that he has a 7 fastball and a 6 slider, potentially a 5 change yet projects as a #5 starter? Seems like he would project better than that.

He will, without a doubt be $15M better than Mike Pelfrey. Ervin over Meyer assumes we have only one injury or inneffective pitcher.

Complete minor numbers. Not a ton of k's, great control. Go figure http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=graham001jon

I can't ever recall this much action on one day and it is 11 AM

Yeah. You have to look at the market rates. Lester 6/155 Liriano 3/39 Mccarthy 4/48 You rarely get a good deal in free agency unless you take a guy with some sort of issue that pans out. Like Phil Hughes. Those are riddled with risk too. I prefer 4/50 or so to a guy that is our second best pitcher now. Over not adding talent to one of the worst rotations in the sport. I am not overly concerned that this move stops us from keeping our young core together.

A good sign for the pro-Ervin guys, like myself. Another tidbit, his name is actually Johan Santana but he goes by Ervin because of another pitcher in the league at that time.

Alfredo Simon to DET

A guy that gets on base 39% of the time is a total hack.

The lite was the reference to the $140M vs. their $180M or whatever it is. I knew it was more of a thought...

The issue is payroll would likely jump to $140M and we would have no farm system. We would be Tigers-lite.

I would thnk owners would like it the way it is. If you owned a baseball team, you likely had a slew of other business interests as well, with productive investment opportunities. Delaying a payment to a player a year or two would mean higher total profits as those funds could be invested elsewhere.

Cespedes for Porcello. Also it sounds like the Tigers are getting a pitcher from cincy, but no word on which one.

Yeah, two $100M contracts structured differently would have a different NPV. But I suppose what is driving the NPV is the assumption the money received earlier will be invested and grown at a good rate, versus blown on cars, jewelry, and strip clubs. Maybe that is why the union frowns upon them.

But giving a guy that has not averaged 100 IP a year over 10 years, a four year deal is wreckless. His ERA+ the last two years have been 94 and 85.

Our offer was 4-50 I heard. I think he gets more and certainly can use the McCarthy contract as a data point (4-48). He came into the league 10 years ago and has less than 1,000 IP. 4.50 and 4.05 the last two years.

The Dodgers just gave McCarthy 4-48. Yikes. Could not wait to piss away the Kemp money.

As a finance guy, I think it is odd that anyone is against being paid more now.

We only process worst case scenarios here. Could you imagine if his arm fell off as he signed the last A in Santana on the contract?