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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I wonder what the sentiment would have been in 2009. They ripped up their system for Jake Peavy and signed Colon. Then they won 79 games.
  2. tobi0040
    Cespedes had an OPS of .861 in the first year. .737 and .751 the next two. Puig's OPS went from .925 to .863. When the tape is out on these guys they regress. That regression will hurt the White Sox way more than a 35 year old Adam Larcoche (career .811 OPS). He is a bad defender too, not sure if they will DH him.
  3. tobi0040
    Not a bad thing. But they will have the same production out of the closer. So I am not adding any wins here, certainly not multiple wins.
  4. tobi0040
    The Sox won 73 games last year with two primary closers. One with an ERA of 1.96 and the other 2.96 (Putnam and Petricka). Both better than Robertson's 3.08. Even if Jeff S. has a year like the last two, how are they going to win 88 games? I expect regression out of Abreu as well.
  5. tobi0040
    I think that is a big assumption. I guess my point is, why not just sign Lester, Scherzer, or Shields? All have better career numbers and you keep the prospects. They either get Jeff S. for one year or they sign him to a deal that is a huge risk IMO. He has been good for 2-3 years tops. All in the NL for the most part. With an ERA + that is 1% better than league average. And we don't know who the other prospect is. Their system is not ranked that great, but their top five is not shabby. Rodon is 1. They have a young SS at 2 that had an OPS over .800 in three league last year (17th pick in 2013). #3 is a starter that throws 100 and had an ERA of 1.44 last year. #5 is their first rounder in 2012 with some power.
  6. tobi0040
    It is frustrating to see people within the division being aggressive while the Twins and being linked to guys that will be in Rochester, at best. But neither one of these moves in isolation worry me too much. Frankly, I would not be happy if the Twins made either move. They gave up Semien, who is a 24 year old the A's are going to play at SS. He had an OPS of .881 in AAA last year with 15 HR in just 81 games. Bassitt has a sub 3.00 ERA in the minors with a k rate of 8.6. We don't know who the third prospect is yet, guessing it is a top 5 guy. All for a guy with a career ERA + of 101 on a one year deal.Career ERA of 3.99 almost all in the NL. He is 30 and will probably be handed an extension in excess of $100M Robertson is a 30 year old closer they just gave $50M to and they also lose a 2nd round pick.
  7. tobi0040
    I looked up his stats after reading BA. Only 91 K in 135 IP. Kind of weird. I think we take a guy with velocity and put him in the pen.
  8. tobi0040
    Call me cynical, but I think Mauer would need an OPS in the mid 600's before he is a bench player.
  9. tobi0040
    Oh snap.
  10. tobi0040
    If someone offered me a .775 OPS out of Mauer next year it would be very tempting.
  11. tobi0040
    You would wonder why they would do that. CJ Wilson has way more upside. Career ERA + of 112 versus 91.
  12. tobi0040
    I will first say that the predictions are often wrong. Think Stephen Drew, Ervin Santana a few years in a row now. But I heard a price tag of 3 and $40M for Liriano somewhere. With the Pirates balking at a 4th year. No reason to give Liriano anything like that.
  13. tobi0040
    I don't really want Liriano back. But could you imagine these boards if he came back here and stunk again?
  14. tobi0040
    At least Radcliff has player personnel and scouting experience beyond selling them to the media or negotiating the contract (St. Peter and Antony).
  15. tobi0040
    The White Sox are in "serious talks" regading Jeff Samardzija. I would count the White Sox getting him for their best prospects, then handing him $100M as the best thing that will happen to the Twins this offseason. His career ERA is 3.99, almost all in the NL. His career era plus is 101. And he will be 30 next year. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/08/white-sox-in-serious-talks-with-as-for-jeff-samardzija/related/
  16. tobi0040
    None of these guys are a lock to put up better numbers than May or Meyer. And they are not consistent and/or healthy to hand a long term contract if they have a good year. I see a lose-lose. Get a clear upgrade or let the young kids play. Sure, it is possible that we could get a good outcome. The guys pitch well and are flipped, or we get a pick when they leave. But that potential outcome is not worth seeing May or Meyer in AAA. They are 25 now.
  17. tobi0040
    I don't think you give a guy 4-35 or 5-48 when it is unclear where he plays as early as this June. Especially since we don't have to make that decision before we have a much clearer picture.
  18. tobi0040
    I think vogelsong is the missing link. And think of the mentorship vogelsong will give Meyer when vogelsong is in our rotation and Meyer is in aaa. Then we cut the guy in August and bring up Meyer.
  19. tobi0040
    Here is an article that lists a lot of the names in play. Lot of interesting dynamics tied to most of them http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11979452/mlb-winter-meetings-10-names-watch
  20. tobi0040
    I think to give anything up, it requires an extension. But honestly, the Tigers have thought this is their year about 5 years in a row now. Their owner is old and wants a ring. He isn't going anywhere.
  21. tobi0040
    True. Owed about 4 and 100 with an option.
  22. tobi0040
    The compelling trade candidates for me would be Zimmerman and Cueto. My conditions would be not givng up Sano and Buston and theym accepting an extension of 5-100 with a team option or two. If a 6th year vested based on innings that would probably be OK. I am guessing that would not be likely. I think the others have some warts. I think the guys that are in free agency are going to get a 7 year deals in excess of $25M a year. I think Hamels and Price are going to cost Sano/Buxton and require a $150M extension. Latos is appealing but he has been hurt a bit. Lots of risk to lose prospects and extend. I am not sure Jeff S. is the real deal. And I would probably give Shields a 3 year deal.
  23. tobi0040
    He was above average in his prime, no doubt. But he was never the elite defender many think or his 9 GG's show. His career dWAR is 4.7. He has had one season over 2.0 (2.3). Andrew Jones has a career dWAR of 24.7. He has six seasons over 2.0, including seasons of 3.8 and 3.9. My point is many start out with him on Jones level, or elite. Then they say, he has lost s step of two over the last 10-11 years. So we grade him as average. But if you start out with him as above average and tack on 11 years it is hard to talk yourself to him being average, which clearly the Twins scouts have (not defensive metrics).
  24. tobi0040
    I think you have enough different metrics out there, including some with a scout component, the eye test, and reality suggesting he is a below average defender. My personal opinion was that Hunter has always gone back well, which resulted in a few HR robbing catches a year. In his prime when he probably was a plus defender, those highlights made him look like the top in the game, but he never really was. I think the Twins have this view that he started from Andrew Jones caliber and lost a step and I think both of those are wrong.
  25. tobi0040
    You guys have said some things about our statistics department that I have been thinking about for quite some time. I think the Twins needed a statistics department (to my knowledge it may just be one guy) to say they have one. But if you look at the background of some other organiations, Ivy League quant types/management consultant backgrounds, etc. They differ quite a bit from Goins and are much larger. My understanding is he was in ticket sales and just finished his MBA from St. Thomas, then started the statistics department. I think it is safe to say that our department is not on par with others or has less influence, or both.
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