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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Plus the other 8-10 runs for the remaining 26 IP.....
  2. tobi0040
    The assumption that all the guys turn out and we have $$$ to add 2-3 free agents maybe rosy. I think it is either a one or the other. I was thinking of teams that had excess pitching talent and had to trade guys. I honestly can't think of one off the top of my head. I bet we would be hard pressed to come up with five cases in the last 3-4 years of a team having to do this and then not regretting it later. And we are starting from a pretty poor place to begin with.
  3. tobi0040
    A 3 year deal for Ervin would mean he is off the books before anyone outside of Hughes gets expensive. Dozier's deal should be light the first few years. Meyer, Berrios, Sano, and Buxton would all be in rookie deals. We have $16.5M off the books with Pelfrey and Hunter in 2016 alone. Plouffe could be traded as well.
  4. tobi0040
    If Santana and Nolasco average 200 IP each and have a 4.30 ERA....which is about the career norms we cut 44 runs off our total from last year (assuming the starter ERA was 5.30 which I think is in the ballpark). That cuts our differential from 62 down to 18. That is before any benefit of May, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, or Berrios is layered on. I think he would provide innings, talent, and fewer runs. And be an additional barrier from the likes of Pelfrey, Pino, etc.
  5. tobi0040
    Odds are though, in 2016 or 2017 Santana would be one of our best five pitchers. Have to be a rosy outlook to think we will have five better. Lot of assumptions build in there. We can re-sign Hughes. 2-3 young guys come up and are better than a 4.00 type pitcher.... Gibson does not take a step back, Nolaso turns it around, etc. He has had a few really, really good years as well. ERA + of 127 twice. Over 100 three different times. Those types of years could propel us back to relevancy if a few other things line up.
  6. tobi0040
    True, but if that is the worry we should never pay a pitcher a lot of money. Right? Or do you feel Ervin is more risky?
  7. tobi0040
    Someone commented awhile back that we should worry about having too much starting pitching when we actually have that problem. My opinion is a bottom 3 starting rotation should worry about talent first and depth second. I also don't think it is a lock the Twins even want Meyer in the rotation on April first. May or Meyer breaking through in the pen is not a bad idea. Between Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May, at least one will get hurt or pitch their way out of the rotation at some point.
  8. tobi0040
    Things just got real!
  9. tobi0040
    I view Ervin as really the only guy on the FA market that is both attainable and a clear upgrade in our rotation. Others may end up being an upgrade, like Masterson, Anderson, or Mccarthy, but those guys have red flags and the deal they are looking for will likely not keep them here when we are good again.
  10. tobi0040
    I disagree about the Nolasco comp. Ervin's career ERA is 4.17, mostly all AL. Nolasco's was 4.37, all NL when we signed him. And Ervin's career ERA has been really dinged by two bad years.
  11. tobi0040
    I would push for a 3 year deal with a team option or vested 4th year based on innings. But I really do like him. I think he is our 2nd most talented pitcher behind Hughes. A clear upgrade that drops all down a peg, forces someone to the pen.
  12. tobi0040
    That is not true. La Velle has us linked to four guys I have never heard of.
  13. tobi0040
    On the cards front. They also had a 10 year deal at 210 or 220 million on the table for a 32 year old pujols. When it is all said and done that may be one of the worst in all of sports.
  14. tobi0040
    And both were part of the team that had basically the same amount of wins as ours last year. That is why I started with "they won almost the same amount of games last year"
  15. tobi0040
    We basically had the same record last year. They add Jeff S. for either 1 year or a large contract. They add Robertson and Duke and LaRoche. Add in their system. Versus our system. In my opinion if I was to rate the system: 1. Buxton 2. Sano 3. Rodon 4. Berrios 5. Meyer 6. Stewart I think the depth of our system is better as well.
  16. tobi0040
    The Samardzija deal is actually a 6 player deal. Sox get Ynoa, who has flopped. http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/24876421/white-sox-acquire-samardzija-ynoa-in-six-player-deal-with-as The A's think Semien will be there SS next year. Manual has Ravelo as #10 for them. Bassitt has a 3.94 ERA in 30 IP in the big's. Phegley is a 26 year old catcher that hit well in the minors the last few. .966 and .861 the last two years.
  17. tobi0040
    I think the only time to panic is if their future (2 years to 6-7 years) looks brighter than ours. I don't think it does. I think some are feeling left out because action is going on around the league and as usual, we are having no part of it. But I don't think these are the types of moves we should be worrying about. They seem to be buying high on guys, adding 30+ year olds, overpaying for average at best bats, spending where they should not be spending (closers, DH), etc. These are not the types of decisions over time that pay off at a reasonable rate.
  18. tobi0040
    I think the White Sox extend Jeff S at about $20M a year, starting as early as next year. That puts them about $115M assuming they fill out their roster with young players. At this point that may not be an accurate assumption. If they are over $120M they are near their highest point. I know I would not trade spots with them right now. Would anyone else?
  19. tobi0040
    On that Cot's site, they didn't have Dunn listed to get to the $90M because he was traded to Oakland. I only looked at the top 7-8 paid guys and because I am lazy didn't look much below that. The broader point remains. Would anyone trade franchises with them right now? If not, we probably should not get too worked up.
  20. tobi0040
    $90M last year + $39M that they have added already would get me to $129M. That is more than their highest payroll of all time, which was in 2012 of $127M. I don't ever see them as being a $170-200M payroll team. So this team plus another $10-15M in payroll does not look like a world series champion to me. Nor are they investing in young players. The Twins start with say $70-75M in 2016 (lose Hunter and Pelf). We have Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Berrios (among others) and could theoretically add another $40-50M......we are going to be OK boys and girls. I would honestly not trade franchises this second if I wanted to build a contender. Which position would you guys rather be in over the next five years?
  21. tobi0040
    I question if these are the types of moves you can easily bounce back from. They may hand Jeff S. $20M a year over 5-6 years. Paying $17M a year for a set up guy and closer are not moves you can rid yourself of easily if they go sour. And $25M for LaRoche could be deadweight come May 1. Last year they fielded a 73 win team for 90M. They don't lose any large contracts. They add $39M from what I can tell with Jeff S. (10M). LaRoche (12M). The two relievers (17M). They may rip up jeff's deal and double his pay. I would guess Sale, Danks, and Abreu's deals increase next year among others. I think we need to take a deep breathe here. The $140M team they will field next year looks to me as not quite a perennial contender. They were 15-20th in offense and 28th or so in defense. Not sure you go all in after adding basically three pitchers, two of which are relievers and frankly a below average 1b/dh addition.
  22. tobi0040
    I agree....look at the four moves in isolation. -Traded for a 30 year old closer and gave him $46M over four years, giving a 2nd round pick in the process (a low second round pick to boot). -Spent $25M over two years for a 35 year old 1B/DH type that has a career OPS of .811. Career OBP is .340, coming off a career high .362 -Traded 3 young players/prospects for a 30 year old pitcher that is one year away from a large payday. Truly a buy high move. The next move is probably to throw $100M at him, basically been good for two or three years. Career numbers are rather pedestrian (ERA + of 101). -Signed a set up guy for $5M dollars a year for three years. Coming off a great year. Basically has not been good since he was a rookie in 2006 (prior to this year). 4.46 career ERA. These are not the type of moves that sustain winning over any length of time. Each has a ton of risk. Classic White Sox. I get the feeling of feeling left out. But over time I think we should be glad we don't make these type of moves.
  23. tobi0040
    Yes, they are still the White Sox. They don't care about defense and have historically not cared much for OBP. I think the Jeff S. move has a ton of risk and I will never support a $50M dollar closer. It won't get headlines, but on top of the $50M they gave Robertson, they gave up a second round pick. The Twins used their second round pick on a guy that will probably close for 4-6 years here and will make about $15M over that stretch doing so.
  24. tobi0040
    We should also mention that the White Sox were horrible defensively last year, which is a theme most have been very critical about the Twins for. Fangraphs has them below the Twins actually, and they have only added Laroche, who is not a good defender no matter where they play him at 35. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
  25. tobi0040
    LaRoche had a dWAR of -1 last year. -9.6 so far in his career. My point on the regression for Abreau is they won 73 games and will get regression from their best hitter. An .850-.875 is a huge decline from last year...so they have moving pieces here in both directions.
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