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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I think big picture, we could go down the line and lock up every guy we think will be a part of the 2017 Twins. But we first need clarity on if the combination of all these guys is a playoff team or not. Because if you have all positions locked up, you are often going to be stuck with that roster. we will never have full clarity, but projecting out five years based on a very small sample is risky. Especially when guys have huge queston marks.
  2. tobi0040
    But what if Vargas is the next Ortiz and Arcia still looks lost in the outfield? And again, if Arcia does not take a significant step forward against lefties he will find himself on the bench in key games. A lot of things need to be sorted out over the next few years.
  3. tobi0040
    Here is a 4th grade explanation. By 4th grade I mean I know just enough to think I have it down. I will be corrected, likely on all points within ten minutes. Here goes. Your service time starts when you are called up and is a big countdown, first to arbitration (when an arbiter determines your pay and then when you become a free agent). The general rule of thumb is players are under rookie deals their first three years and usually make about $500K per year. Then they are in arbitration for three years. Numbers in arbitration range from 1-2.5M in year one, on up to potentially $10M depending on prodution. Ryan Howard was putting up MVP numbers for example and made a boatload. Super two means players can skip their third year of rookie pay and jump to arbitration if they are in the 22nd percentile or better in terms of service time (for their peers). http://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/ I have less knowledge of the options. On a very basic level, a player can only be called up to the majors and then sent back down so many times before he has to pass through waivers and can be claimed by other teams. Some magical calculation exists regarding service time, number of times being sent down, whether they ar on the 40 or 25 man roster, and age.
  4. tobi0040
    I am a little dumbfounded. He is not a free agent for five more seasons and has legitimate question marks about his game and role here. He has been pretty bad defensively and may not be sustainable there. And his career line against lefties is .224/.266/.336/.597. Before we pay him five years in advance, lets allow him to show that he has a position and is not platoon player.
  5. tobi0040
    Okay. I meant he needs to outperform Vargas and the twins trade Vargas.
  6. tobi0040
    He needs to hit the seams off the ball and play average defense. Or hit the seams off the ball (way more than Arcia) and the twins trade Arcia and commit to him at DH It should be noted that he would need to dramatically improve against lefties to qualify as hitting the seams off the ball. The last thing you want to do is extend a platoon player for five years for no reason.
  7. tobi0040
    More importantly than the stats, was Pelfrey battling his tail off?
  8. tobi0040
    You are right. What was I thinking.
  9. tobi0040
    I think he is due a three year extension after this year. It maybe tough for him to decline that.
  10. tobi0040
    Especially if he could play both at the same time.
  11. tobi0040
    This sounds like a sell high to me. He is a valuable piece as a utility guy, but if someone is willing to give up real value and believe in him as an everyday guy than I would trade him. Now if we move him for some low ceiling AA reliever, we should keep the guy.
  12. tobi0040
    That is a consideration. But I think the story that has not gotten much of any traction is how much better Rosario is than Hicks defensively. Hicks was not the main issue defensively last year, but he was below average. I think the thought proceess that young + athletic = good outfielder has not been proven here. Getting better play out of CF would help the defense and I think Rosario is a good enough hitter to blow by the low bar Hicks has put up so far on that side of the bar as well. Molitor said that Hicks needs to "reclaim" the CF spot in order to break camp. Rosario .237/.704, 4 XBH in 38 AB (2 HR, 3B, and 2B) Hicks .222/.684, 2 XBH in 27 AB. Rosario has gunned down two runners already. If it is a competition...hard to argue Hicks is ahead. Rosario is not setting the world on fire, but it does look like the same old Hicks. Very low BA, walking a bit, no power. My bare minimum on Rosario is that he will likely hit double digit HR's and should have quite a few doubles, so that alone should exceed Hicks at the plate. http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_27744047/twins-eddie-rosario-aaron-hicks-need-win-center
  13. tobi0040
    I guess if may loses to pelfrey or milone, I question the point if giving him 10 starts last year. He got the nerves out, learned how to get hitters out towards the end, learned what he can't do (walk guys in bunches). What is the point of sending him back? He needs to build off last year. IMO, he will likely put up better numbers in April and had way more upside. This is a no brainer.
  14. tobi0040
    I honestly think Rosario makes this team over hicks.
  15. tobi0040
    That was exactly what I was using. Good call. All his balls were listed as 4 pitch walks. Thank you for the heads up.
  16. tobi0040
    Way too talented to give up on as a starter. I would rather see him tweak his mechanics in AAA in starts rather than stick him in the pen.
  17. tobi0040
    The other thing that I think merits a comparison, the Mariners had to put up with BB/9 numbers out of Randy Johnson that the twins have never put up with and the M's were ultimately rewarded for doing so. Now, Meyer can't walk two hitters per inning like he did yesterday. He has to improve his command. But it is interesting to note, Meyer only allowed one run and had 3 K's in those two innings (in addition to one weak bloop hit that had a chance of being caught). Nobody hit him hard. When he was in a jam he reached back and overpowered guys, or dropped that really, really nice slider in there. He may get himself into trouble more often, but if nobody is squaring him up and he is striking out hitters.....he should be given a leash. A BB/9 in the mid 4's or even 5 in the big's should not keep this kid in AAA. In his first two years, Randy had a BB/9 of 5.4, then 4.8 the next year. But he had k rates in the 7-8 range, HR rates at .7-.8, and hit rates of 8.1-8.2. We need to look at more than one stat with him. To a similar extend, May is similar. His hit rates, HR rates, and K rates are not like the typical Twins pitcher and should be viewed in their entirety.
  18. tobi0040
    Great article. I have championed Meyer for a long time, but it is really, really hard to watch yesterdays outing and then argue he should make this team out of spring training. He was consistently missing the glove by a foot or more with the fastball. However, the few times he got ahead of the hitter, it was like he was pitching to a 5th grader when he would drop the slider in there, but he needs much better fastball command. Four BB's, all four pitch walks in two innings.... Batter 1. Hit on first pitch Batter 2. Four pitch walk Batter 3. Four pitch walk Batter 4. Sac on first pitch (run scored) Batter 5. Four pitch walk Batter 6. K on three pitches (all swinging) Batter 7. K on three pitches (all swinging) Second inning Batter 1. K on three pitches Batter 2. Grounder to 2B on first pitch Batter 3. Four pitch walk Batter 4. Guy thrown out at 2B on steal attempt.... My other random thoughts....Nolasco's curve looke really good but it seemed like his fastball was hit pretty hard. Obviously the HR, but a couple other hard hit balls right at people. And Arcia on that ball off his glove. That was brutal. Really Delmon-esque. No hustle, misplaying a ball that should have been caught. Not quite routine, but not a dififcult play either. For those out there who don't buy the Twins negative 50 runs due to OF defense should watch that. If what should be an out is a 2B on a play you are not even requiring average speed or an average angle on....
  19. tobi0040
    It is also debatable they only had an elite bullpen. Ventura had an ERA of 3.20, both in the regular season and playoff. That is pretty close to elite. Gordon had an OPS of .783 and a WAR of 6.6. Cain's was 4.9.
  20. tobi0040
    He is nowhere near a lock to outperform Vargas, who is 22 or 23. He is 35. No thanks. We need to give young guys reps, having both Hunter and Howard is silly.
  21. tobi0040
    It does seem like a pretty decent bet. For the Twins to land at 69 wins or less, we are not getting much of anything out of a list of guys that could provide value this year, IMO. Specifically, Rosario, May, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Vargas. and Berrios. I think at least two guys from this list emerge earlier than people are expecting and help this team win games.
  22. tobi0040
    I don't know guys. He only has 2 HR in 10 at bats. He needs to pick it up if he wants to hang up with the big club.
  23. tobi0040
    You have to be careful. Most mlb hitters with power could hit for a higher average if they wanted to Adam Dunn could have shortened his swing and went the other way more and hit for a higher average, but his .250 was different than Lexi Casilla's
  24. tobi0040
    Not overly concerned about the breaking ball. If you take the guys breaking ball away from him.....I would expect it not to be crisp in the 2-3 times he gets to throw it a game.
  25. tobi0040
    Agreed, great work as always Parker.
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