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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    That is fair. My personal opinion is that Rosario is a more natural hitter. His OPS is weighted towards slugging versus OBP. I don't think he would have made that PR team as a 21 year old if he could not hit. I don't see his tools struggling the way we have seen Hicks. Reports on his defense, even in CF have been really good. Comparing that to what I have seen from Hicks and putting it all together, my money is on Rosario long term. Maybe not CF in April (though I would not be shocked), but a corner spot sometime in the June timeframe I think has Rosario written all over it. I also think our OF defense could turn into a strength by the end of the year. I think Buxton and Rosario can cover enough ground to mask how poor Arcia is.
  2. tobi0040
    I don't think it is clear that Hicks has shown more than Rosario in the minors. Rosario progresssed through at a slighly younger age and put up slightly bettter numbers overall. He also made the PR team in the WBC as a 21 year old. Rosario Age 20 Low A - .835 OPS Age 21 - .903 OPS at high A, .734 at AA Age 22 - .672 OPS at AA in 79 games, missed 50 to start the year Total Minors - .829 OPS, 106 2B, 26 3B, 26 HR in 427 games. Hicks Age 20 - .829 OPS in low A Age 21 - .722 OPS in high A Age 22 - .844 OPS in AA Total Minors .798 OPS, 124 2B, 32 3B, 39 HR in 567 games. You can make a case for both, it is pretty close IMO. I think people forget that everyone was saying the same things about Hicks prior to his age 22 season. Lots of tools, relatively underperforming them. Not putting it together, etc. Then he has one good year (not a phenomenal year) and then makes the big league club the next year and we are all saying the same thing about him.
  3. tobi0040
    I am rooting for the kid too, but the way I see it he needs to prove he is a MLB corner OF by June or July this year. At that time I think Buxton is our CF for the next 10 years or so. Accomplishing that would be a huge improvement upon the guy we have seen the last two years. I also see Rosario as more of a natural hitter than Hicks and the two are very much in competition for a coner spot moving forward.
  4. tobi0040
    Is this the Sid artice from 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, or this year?
  5. tobi0040
    Completely agree. If Ryan had any thoughts of these two being similar or Torii being able to fill in CF, he would not have his job.
  6. tobi0040
    I think if Sano is playing well, he is up after super 2. Regardless of how Plouffe is playing. This is a guy that you make room for.
  7. tobi0040
    Which to me makes sense. Seems odd that we haven't heard boo in about five days.
  8. tobi0040
    Not at all. Effectively saying we will be ahead of one, maybe two of the other four teams is noting that we are not a very good team. I think the Royals outperformed last year and they lose their best pitcher. Ventura is a regression candidate. That leaves them with an average at best rotation and a below average offense. Pen be dammed, they could slip. The Tigers are going to fall from grace rather spectacularly. It is probably still a 2016 event but this is an aging team. Verlander looks about done and they lost a 6 WAR pitcher and Victor will never have another season like last year. With the Indians, is Kluber a 7 WAR pitcher? He never looked it prior to last year. And the Sox, our pythag last year was actually better than theirs and they needed 10 WAR from Sale and Quintana to have a pythag of 71. So I think you have a lot of moving parts. I don't think anyone is expecting anything out of 4-5 young players that could have an impact for us this year. If 1-2 come up and contribute I think we jump 1-2 teams. That's all.
  9. tobi0040
    I think the thought has been, young, good athelete, fast, can steal bases.....therefore he will be a good centerfielder. That has not been what we have seen.
  10. tobi0040
    That was really bad. The path, angle, and timing of the jump. Oh yeah, turns out there is a wall there.
  11. tobi0040
    It is not that the deal is not done, it just seems odd that we haven't heard anything in three days.
  12. tobi0040
    I would argue we have more regression candidates (Santana, Escobar, Plouffe, Collabello's April, and Dozier) as we do guys that may bounce back (Nolaso, Mauer, etc.). I think if the Twins surprise people it is going to be a few young, talented players that come up and give this team a shot in the arm. I think about Matt Harvey in his first year, If Meyer or May could have a year that looks anything like that....or Sano or Buxton come up and perform well that is where the upside will come from
  13. tobi0040
    I really don't see Pelfrey or Milone getting many starts this year. Milone may break camp but that is because the Twins have an irrational tendency to start the year with veterans. If we have a ton of injuries maybe Milone does, but he would be an improvement over the likes of Pino. May had only 10 starts last year, he gave up 15 ER in two of those ten. That is why his FIP is over three runs lower than his ERA (7.88 vs. 4.77). He also fanned 44 batters in 45 IP. Ricky, well his career numbers suggest his ERA could improve by about a run.
  14. tobi0040
    I guess I don't really see the worry here. This is a good article, although it is dated a year. His HR's in 2013 were all to LF, but most were no doubters. http://www.baseballprof.com/2014/01/2014-brian-dozier-fantasy-projection/
  15. tobi0040
    I think the twins finish 4th or 3rd, but I am not sure who they finish ahead of. I just see cracks in the other four teams
  16. tobi0040
    I wonder why we haven't heard anything regarding this extension since the initial report two days ago. I wonder if the talks fell apart.
  17. tobi0040
    Especially when the side he hits well from would be against lefties. Maybe we would call him up for that role during a pennant run
  18. tobi0040
    I assume this is a Target field reference given the right handers cited? If so, Dozier has more HR on the road than at home.
  19. tobi0040
    I have to agree, they have been shopping him and I think it has always been common knowledge that they would eat salary
  20. tobi0040
    Milone's IF fly ball rate is 16% higher at home. I think it plays a role in his splits. Santana and Nolasco have an OPS of .757 and .755 on the road, versus Milone's .785. Both of those guys have played a few seasons with different teams as well
  21. tobi0040
    I think you can point to Hunter, Santana, Koskie, Cuddy, and Kubel as guys we sort of "sold" on. Only Johan was traded and actually sold, but the rest of these guys left at a time in which we received draft picks for them. We were a contending team at time so we probably wanted to keep them as long as we could while receiving something. The return on Cuddy has been good (Berrios).
  22. tobi0040
    I would not even consider it. We have no lack of corner OF options and we have young guys that need reps. If Arcia an put up an OPS plus of 108 at 23 years old, I don't think an Arcia on the upswing and Ethier on the downswing have much room between them. And if Arcia improves defensively a big they probably come close to even defensively as Ethier ages. If Arcia can move to competent level against lefties they are probably even right now. I am pretty sure Rosario right now can run circles around Ethier in the OF.
  23. tobi0040
    Guessing you meant Vargas at DH. I think Rosario takes Hicks spot and the catcher will probably still be Suzuki. I don't think they will tolerate Pinto
  24. tobi0040
    I am curious what metric you are using to conclude Plouffe is “not very good” at 3B? His range factor was 6th. His DWAR was 12th. 10th in double plays turned. 4th in put outs. And 14th in fielding percentage. I am not going to argue that MLB is pretty conservative in the manner in which they assign errors, I just don't see how that was limited to Plouffe. Add in that he was 13th in OPS and 9th in overall WAR. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/3b http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/range_factor_per_nine_3b_top_ten.shtml
  25. tobi0040
    I can't help but conclude that Tommy Milone is a reverse Phil Hughes. Hughes had terrible numbers in Yankee stadium, but he had really good stuff and decent numbers everywhere else. Good K numbers, a good HR rate everywhere else. It was a great sign and logic. Take the guy away from the terrible stadium, get decent numbers with a chance his confidence will explode and he will improve Milone has a career 3.44 ERA and .699 OPS in Oakland. He left 76.3% of his runners stranded there, thanks in part to cheap pop up outs. On the road, he has a career 4.48 ERA and .785 OPS. He strands only 69.3% of his runners. Only 41 players had a higher OPS last year. His upside is that of a 5th starter at best and he is 28 years old. Why on earth would we give him the 5th starter role over two 25 year olds who have way more upside and are likely to outperform him? This appears to be a very tough concept for the Twins, but games in April count the same as game in July or August
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