Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

tobi0040

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,776

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Saying you are going to be more consistent and doing it are different things. I am guessing he wasn't hoping on being inconsistent the last few years
  2. tobi0040
    The issue for me with this prediction (.250/.350/.380), is that it would take an entirely different approach. Hicks has been way too tentative at the plate so far to have any shot at slugging .380, particularly last year.
  3. tobi0040
    Through 600 AB, Hicks has an OPS of .606. 31 XBH. 140 K's and 60 BB. He was 23 and 24 and promoted before he was ready. Through 1,017 AB's, Gomez started with an OPS of .623. 66 XBH. 241 K's and 55 BB's. He too was promoted too early. He was a little younger, those were 21-23 stats. So the guy needs more time, it is simply a matter of where is the best place for his development. It is a fact that he has not really mastered AAA over any meaningful time period. I think he could build up his confidence doing that and facing the likes of Johan Pino versus David Price. But I think the Twins signed Hunter for Hicks primarily. So I think he is the CF again.
  4. tobi0040
    Are you indicating Sano could be a very good defensive 3B? I have not heard anyone make that prediction. Most indicate he may struggle to stay at 3B because he is too big and does not have the footwork.
  5. tobi0040
    Chief, Could be. But up to 10 or 15 years ago, baseball was looking at really odd things like average alone. Ben revere for example would have been an all star with a 300/330/630 line before that time.
  6. tobi0040
    But it seems like the value teams place on defense has increased since about 2010 or so. Lots of new stats developed and quantified. The Twins clearly have not bought in. It could play a role in our losses and why our pitching has been so bad. Not the only reason why we have been so bad and why our piching has been so bad. It is mostly because we had bad pitchers. But I can't help but think we have lost a few extra games a year as a result.
  7. tobi0040
    While I pointed out that that our OF defense could dramatically improve in a scenario of Buxton and Rosario or Buxton and Hicks, I guess the worry for me is that future decisions will be made with little to no regard to defense, just as they have in the past. I could see a situation where, say the difference between Rosario's bat and Vargas's bat does not warrant having Arcia in the OF (the twins would be better off having Rosario in the OF, Arcia DH, and Vargas traded). But the Twins instead trade Rosario. Nothing in the past suggests to me that the Twins will put a premium on OF defense. Cuddy, Kubel, Willingham, a 39 year old Hunter, Arcia, etc.
  8. tobi0040
    I think it is tricky. He isn't helping his performance, but I think the leagues want to keep it relatively clean on the drug of abuse front too. To my knowledge, football and baseball are similar in that respect and if you want to be in the program, you need to stay clean. Most guys can shake their habits with their careers on the line. Others, like Darryl Strawberry, Josh Gordon, and apparently Josh Hamilton struggle more. I do agree that the punishment in this case could end up hurting his long road to sobriety. If you look back at his story he didn't start using until he was in the minors and had a few injuries and was away from baseball and off his top prospect trajectory. At the same time, I don't think it is right to just ignore drugs like the NBA does. My hope in this case his actual suspension is less than 50 or 100 games and is more focused on rehab than just not playing baseball. At some point his baseball career will be over and he won't need to stay clean for baseball, but hopefully will be able to do it on his own. I also hope is that baseball wants to help him achieve that goal.
  9. tobi0040
    I predict LF struggles this year because of a rare beetle in the LF grass.
  10. tobi0040
    Reports are that he did not fail a test and he voluntarily told the league. It happened some months back so he was probably in the clear from a testing perspective. No doubt the guy has an addiction problem and that is very sad. But contrast his approach with that of an A Rod, deny, deny, deny, sue the league, etc. Ryan Braun singling out the drug tester and claiming the guy was an anti-semite, denying what he did, etc.. If there is a silver lining or good side to this story to me it is that. He sounds like a real stand up guy who is up front and honest.
  11. tobi0040
    In 600 at bats, a guy who gets 180 hits is a .300 hitter. A guy that gets just 140 hits is a .233 hitter. Huge difference. Now if you assume the .233 hitter is a good defender with great range and the .300 hitter is Josh Willingham......how many balls does the good defender get to that the other guy does not? That is the question. If the good defender gets to one additional ball every four games, that is taking away the same 40 hits that is the difference between the .300 hitter and the .233 hitter. If the good fielder gets to one additional ball every 8 games, then the BA breakeven is .300 versus .266. I can see where it plays a big role and I think on the open market the .300 hitter would have a job and the .233 hitter may not. I understand some nuance exists here, such as a HR being out of the hands of the OF.
  12. tobi0040
    Good call out. We have a history here of really, really bad outfield defenses. Some of these were re-treads past 30 that were not good in their prime. It is safe to say that our GM does not factor in outfield defense a ton in these decisions. Either he just doesn't care or thinks the SABR folks have gotten ahead of themselves in quantifying its importance. I think it is safe to assume that Willingham and Delmon Young failed the eye test. I have had friends descibe Josh as pulling a tractor and Delmon Young playing on ice. Relatively fair assessments IMO.
  13. tobi0040
    Well I heard that 92% of the time Joe has a runner on first he hits into a double play* *Implies I am kidding
  14. tobi0040
    Some truth here, but Terry and Torii could very well have had a handshake agreement to move Torii to a contender whenever the Twins felt the mentorship has taken course. The caveat here is I think Torii becomes a bench bat or platoon DH on a contending team versus an everyday guy
  15. tobi0040
    Yeah, I think this is a year in which we want to evaluate guys and get young guys around Hunter so he can mentor them. I think that piece is over-rated but I think that is the Twins thinking. In the meantime, this year the Twins OF will likely be bad again, but I forecast a much better OF defense next year. Buxton-Rosario or Buxton-Hicks most likely in two of the three spots. That could come as early as June/July if we trade Hunter. Here are some things the Twins hope to evaluate this year, while focusing primarily on the April to June timeframe: Can Rosario force his way on this team and hit enough for a corner OF spot? Can Hicks finally step up and be the guy the Twins thought? Can Arcia play adequete corner OF defense? If no, can he hit lefties better to become a potential DH and/or have trade value to other teams as a DH/1B? Is Vargas for real? If not, maybe Arcia slides to DH Can Buxton stay healthy? Taking a step back, these guys are all young and I am glad the Twins aren't giving up on any of them and giving them the reps we need in order to make an informed decision. We don't want to give up on guys too early, we have done that too much. I think the Hunter signing does not help this effort but the Twins feel his mentorship outweighs the reps for younger guys.
  16. tobi0040
    Decent point kwak. And willingham played a role in the terrible ranking from 2014 As early as June we could have buxton and Rosario in the of. Assuming torii is moved and even if Arcia is the other guy. From a range perspective we could go from bottom three to top half IMO.
  17. tobi0040
    Agreed JB about Molly helping. However his hands are tied to an extent. He has Arcia, hunter, and Vargas on the roster. And 1b locked up. Two of those three have to be in the field.
  18. tobi0040
    I looked up Morneau and his timeline relative to his concussion. He had the concussion in 2010. Career 15.2% K rate and .483 slugging. 2011 - 15.3% K rate. .333 Slugging 2012 - 17.9% K rate .440 Slugging 2013 - 17.3% K rate. .441 Slugging 2014 - 10.9% K rate. .496 Slugging I looked up Span, but it looks like he has dealt with concussions in many years since he has been here. Justin's slugging dipped a ton that first year and it took a move to Colorado to get it back above career averages. The K's spiked in years 2 and 3.
  19. tobi0040
    I would argue that Mauer may be better at one or two than anyone else. So you have to look at relative to the next best option.....
  20. tobi0040
    Exhibit A (below). Phil Hughes is the only starter with some innings last year with a lower FIP than ERA. Hughes 3.52 ERA 2.65 FIP May 7.88 ERA 4.77 FIP Gibson 4.47 ERA 3.80 FIP Nolasco 5.38 ERA 4.30 FIP Pelfrey 7.99 ERA 7.57 FIP KC 4.94 ERA 4.35 FIP Deduno 4.60 ERA 4.46 FIP
  21. tobi0040
    There could be some truth to the Hunter vs. Arcia portion. However I would argue a ton of space exists between better than Arcia and "more than adequete". If Hunter is in fact better than Arcia I would say he likely occupies the "less than adequate" portion of that spectrum. Especially for the likes of Nolasco, Hughes, and May.
  22. tobi0040
    Here are his actual comments, then the UZR data. I see a clear disconnect between Terry's comments and Torii's UZR ratings. "More than adequete" does not equal dead last in the league to me. And taking the worst RF and putting him in center and saying "You would not miss much" strikes me as a stretch. Imagine Arcia in center. Then he goes out of his way to say that he "shakes his head" most of the time regarding defensive metrics. I think his decision and comments suggest he places way more emphasis on watching people than metrics. I think this is a fair statement. http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/04/twinsights-terry-ryan-defensive-metrics-twins-ignore/
  23. tobi0040
    I think the ranking probably has the Twins rated right in my opinion. To my knowledge, our analytics department is one person, who appears relatively young and has an MBA versus an advanced statistics degree and/or outside application. I believe he was with the Twins in ticket sales prior to going back to school. I don't mean any disrespect. But I am 31 and have an economics degree and an MBA and I would feel vastly out gunned relative to other teams. Other teams have Phd's, quants from NASA, statisticians, much larger departments, guys plucked from other organizations that have good reputations, etc.
  24. tobi0040

    ESPN SABR rankings

    tobi0040 commented on tobi0040's blog entry in Blog tobi0040

    Here is a more robust debate on the topic http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17021-espn-the-great-analytics-rankings-the-twins-are-not-so-great/
  25. tobi0040
    In nearly 1,000 PA's batting 1 or 2....his OBP was in fact .301. The irony here is you have suggested multiple times that I am trying to make statistcs fit my pre-concieved notion. I would caution you on that. I will also suggest another link that talks about the third catcher, maybe this is not a vast conspiracy among lunatics? http://www.google.com/url?url=http://www.twincities.com/ci_20436125/minnesota-twins-gardenhire-still-might-want-third-catcher&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=mcbsVM32N5P7sATTuoD4CQ&ved=0CBQQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNE-huW4aiV6IEhAaavzVDLvXOdoLw On Base Percentage CalculatorHits: Bases on Balls (Walks): Times Hit By a Pitch: At bats: Sacrifice Flies: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=5248&position=2B&season=0 http://www.miniwebtool.com/on-base-percentage-calculator/?h=236&bb=78&hbp=5&ab=951&sf=25 On Base Percentage 0.3012
×
×
  • Create New...