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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-statcast-reveals-about-contact-management-as-a-pitcher-skill/ This suggests that xwOBA is not any more predictive than FIP.
  2. nytwinsfan
    Is there any systematic evidence that long term, certain pitchers generate worse contact than others, other than in terms of the crude categofies of GB, LD and FB? In other words, is there any systematic evidence that xwOBA ads anything to FIP (or SIERA which I think already takes into account GB%) other than short-term randomness? I'm open to the possibility, but I haven't seen it. Certainly certain hitters generate better launch angles and exit velocities on FB/LD, but that doesn't necessarily mean that certain pitchers do. That being said, this is an interesting analysis.
  3. nytwinsfan
    Agreed, it is hard to be too sympathetic to the players, but on the other hand the owners have plenty of money and plenty of profits from baseball as well. Plus, even if we don't think it is justified, if the players refuse to sign going into April (which is apparently a possibility) it is going to be a loss for the fans.
  4. nytwinsfan
    According to Jeff Passan, neither Darvish nor most of the other free agents still available are anywhere close to signing with anyone, and there is a lot of tension and frustration, if not anger, among the players about the way this offseason has gone. Definitely give this a read: https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-players-teams-digging-protracted-standoff-despite-lorenzo-cains-80-million-deal-060605804.html
  5. nytwinsfan
    Darvish, easily.
  6. nytwinsfan
    Exactly
  7. nytwinsfan
    What was his take on Romero, who is also pretty high? He must believe he is a starter and that the injury concerns are not too bad to put him at 47, right?
  8. nytwinsfan
    Sounds like reports/views on his defense at SS are very very mixed. I've heard very conflicting things. Good to hear some think his D is still has a lot of potential.
  9. nytwinsfan
    I'm not sure. Mike Beradino certainly seemed to prioritize ceiling over performance in his BA Twins list, but I don't know if that folds over into their top 100. Let's see what Mlb.com, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have to say.
  10. nytwinsfan
    https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-mlb-prospects-2018/#KMO8v94rAQoF63cd.97 Lewis: 24 Gordon: 93 I don't think it is at all clear that Gordon is more likely to stick at SS than Lewis. That's not what I've heard of late, given Gordon's errors and Lewis's athleticism and the strides he reportedly made on D in one half season. And plus, even if that were true, Lewis has much more upside as a SS as a hitter/baserunner than Gordon, and Lewis's fallback is CF, Gordon's is 2B. Both those facts also make a huge difference. Gordon is a valuable prospect, but the idea that he's as valuable or nearly as valuable as Lewis is not convincing.
  11. nytwinsfan
    That's from last year. Guarantee you that Lewis will be much higher than Gordon when the new top 100 comes out. Gordon had a second half collapse last year. Lewis looked great in Ceder Rapids as a 18 yo and got rave reviews for his game from scouts. Makes a big difference.
  12. nytwinsfan
    No, it really isn't. You are wrong. Gordon cannot be plugged into a lineup "right now" without getting pretty bad results on both offense and defense. There are probably less than a handful of teams that need a SS so bad they would consider starting Gordon this coming season, and none of them are anywhere near making the playoffs, so all of them might as well sign a replacement level or slightly better SS and wait a year or two more for Lewis to reach his much higher ceiling. Yes, nothing is for certain, but any GM that values Gordon higher than Lewisat this point is suspect.
  13. nytwinsfan
    Ummm, Lewis/Gordon are not even remotely of comparable value after Gordon's terrible 2nd half and Lewis's excellent post-draft debut. When he was first drafted they were considered around equal prospects, but not anymore. It may be that the Rays will ask for Lewis plus either Gonsalves/Romero, but neither team is going to be indifferent between Lewis and Gordon. Not by a long shot. I personally would be very reluctant to give up Lewis for Archer, but I also realize the chances of getting Archer without giving up Lewis are probably pretty low. You don't give up a player like Archer for a couple B+ prospects. You want an A or borderline A prospect.
  14. nytwinsfan
  15. nytwinsfan

    Noah's Media

    Images added to a gallery album owned by nytwinsfan in Members Albums Category

  16. nytwinsfan
    Why Not both

    From the album: Noah's Media

  17. nytwinsfan
    some interesting stuff on the Twins and Yu here: https://www.twincities.com/2018/01/20/twins-owner-jim-pohlad-is-a-yu-darvish-fan-hes-a-cool-guy/ "Securing Darvish, 31, could require a commitment of five or more years with an average annual value of $20 million to $25 million. One person familiar with the Twins’ thinking suggested they might stretch as far as $120 million over five years to close the deal with Darvish, but talks continue to play out with the Japanese star and his agent, Joel Wolfe." $120 million over five years would of course be $24 million AAV.
  18. nytwinsfan
    Darvish personally (on twitter) shot that down.
  19. nytwinsfan
    The difference between this list and BA was that Wade and Baddoo were subbed in for Jay and Kirilloff. I found it strange that the Baseball Prospectus thought Enlow's curveball was just another decent pitch, while almost everyone else i've read who scouted him called it potentially the best curveball in the entire draft class. Not sure what to make of that. Just a little strange.
  20. nytwinsfan
    Of all the teams left, by far most worried about the Cubs. Dodgers and Yankees don't scare me.
  21. nytwinsfan
    They already said Rodney is still the closer.
  22. nytwinsfan
    Seems like a great deal for the Astros to me. Clear winners.
  23. nytwinsfan
    Vince Coleman was never really a plus defender though, just on the basepaths. And Buxton already clearly has much more power than Coleman. Coleman was worth about 11-12 WAR (whether Fangraphs or BR) over his entire career of about 6000 PAs. Buxton has already been worth either 4.6 (fangraphs) or 7.2 (BR) in 1000 PAs. Yes, he has some downside risk (mostly associated with injuries), but he has tons of upside. This isn't even close.
  24. nytwinsfan
    Yes, I agree that the Twins should take cost into account. I'd probably do up to $100-110 million for 7 years or as Nick suggested, $80-90 million for 6.
  25. nytwinsfan
    I don't get it. Do you think defensive and baserunning value are made up concepts that have no basis in reality Thrylos? Why would you possibly decide on a player's value solely based on offense?
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