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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    Agreed, unless they think (1) they think they can flip him for value (I'm skeptical) or (2) they think Polanco can really play SS more long-term (aslo skeptical).
  2. nytwinsfan
    Can't imagine the Cardinals will deal Reyes. If they would, you'd have to consider doing that almost straight up, no? Fwiw, Weaver's FIP was 4.33 and his xFIP was 3.34 during his 36.1 major-league innings last year. And that's after having only one start at AAA and basically jumping right from AA to the majors. There is no reason to be down on him because of his short stint in the majors last year. Three other prospects I'd be interested in include Carson Kelly (a 22-yo catching prospect with very good defensive tools and the chance to be a good hitter as well), Sandy Alcantara, a 21-yo Dominican fireballer (96-101 mph fb), the signs of a decent changeup, but lagging breaking ball and control -- obviously high upside, although a long way off. He's the kind of project Falvey might love to try to mold into a future ace and Dakota Hudson - great stuff, and is a definite great reliever prospect, but with a chance to start - kind of like a Right-handed, slightly less heralded Tyler Jay. I'd consider trading Dozier for 1. Weaver 2. Bader 3. Kelly 4. Hudson 5. Alcantara If the Cardinals offered only two of the last three, I'd consider it. Again, though, the main point is to drive up the price vis a vis the Dodgers.
  3. nytwinsfan
    Hell yeah! As Seth says, a second team driving up the price is fantastic. Merry Christmas!
  4. nytwinsfan
    Don't forget Trevor May, who had a 3.35 FIP and 3.96 xFIP in 83.1 innings as a starter in 2015 before he was shortsightedly moved to the bullpen. The Twins would be insane not to give him another "chance" to start this season, IMO. Other than maybe Santana, I think he has the highest upside as a starter this season, although Berrios probably still has higher long-term upside.
  5. nytwinsfan
    One of the things I've heard about is that the draft bonus pools (amateur, not international) were reduced, especially for the #1 pick, which sort of sucks for the Twins. Especially with the extra compensation round A pick at 30-something, will the Twins still be able to use some of that extra money to get a higher-upside guy in the comp round or round 2, as teams like Houston and the Braves have done in the last couple years?
  6. nytwinsfan
    Agree with everything but the bolded part. Escobar is better defensively than Polanco, at least right now. Both stats and eye test affirm that. Don't think you can reasonably argue otherwise.
  7. nytwinsfan
    "Still on" meaning a deal has been reached or "still on" meaning they are still close? I assume you mean the latter. It didn't sound like from your post on reddit that the Dodgers' last offer had advanced the ball much.
  8. nytwinsfan
    RIP. He was so young.
  9. nytwinsfan
    Thrylos, I'm not sure what your point is. Read the comment I was responding to. What Mike Sixel said.
  10. nytwinsfan
    Starlin Castro 2016 WAR: 1.1 (Fangraphs) Brian Dozier 2016 WAR: 5.9 Starlin Castro 2013-2016 WAR: 4.8 Brian Dozier 2013-2016 WAR: 16.4 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  11. nytwinsfan
    Sale has 3 years of control, I'm pretty sure. But otherwise agreed.
  12. nytwinsfan
    Nice. Bidding wars are always a good thing for the selling team. Let's hope there are at least two teams that REALLY want him.
  13. nytwinsfan
    So safe to assume if it was DeLeon they would need another significant piece then?
  14. nytwinsfan
    His prospecting grades put him at below average speed, not a good fielder (although maybe that is just 2B), and a fringy arm. He also sounds like he hasn't played OF in a while. Why in God's name would we want someone like that playing LF? I thought we were finally done with poor outfield defense. I'd rather get Verdugo or Diaz, who can, you know, actually play OF.
  15. nytwinsfan
    1. Agreed they won't seek him out, but possible he becomes a third (or maybe second) piece if Dodgers really want to get rid of him and the first piece is really good (say Bellinger or (even less likely) Urias). Still, I agree this is unlikely. 2. I think if Falvey/Levine really really believe in Alvarez's upside (as some prospect followers do - e.g., Keith Law or Fangraphs), then this might be possible, with Wood taking the place of De Leon as the "now" pitching piece. Otherwise I think you are right that it requires De Leon. 3. Yup, sure, as a third piece. But Garver's stock has been rising of late and Barnes' falling. Not sure if Barnes is that much of an upgrade. .
  16. nytwinsfan
    What are the chances we think a Dozier deal gets done this offseason?. Got to be more than 50% now, right?
  17. nytwinsfan
    That would be great. Doubt they do it though.
  18. nytwinsfan
    I wouldn't assume that means Urias is in play.
  19. nytwinsfan
    Agreed, no need to focus on SS, but Lux as a third and final part of the deal wouldn't be terrible.
  20. nytwinsfan
    Would rather have Alvarez or Verdugo in addition to De Leon than Puig, but if it was De Leon, Puig and another lesser prospect, like Sheffield or Buehler or Lux, I might consider it. Or if the Dodgers pay part of Puig's salary. I just don't think the Twins want to take a risk with Puig's contract right now when pitching is what's missing. I doubt Puig is part of any deal. Plus, can you imagine the MN Press's reaction to Puig. That would not go well.
  21. nytwinsfan
    My take: I think it has to be De Leon (Urias untouchable) + either Verdugo or Alvarez or Diaz-PLUS. The Dodgers are not going to trade De Leon + Bellinger, and the Twins don't need a Willie Calhoun type player. Alvarez has really high upside, even though he is a ways away, so I would think the Twins would quickly do De Leon plus Alvarez. If the second part of the package is Diaz, I would think the Twins would want something more, such as Puig (maybe if the Twins would throw in Rosario) or one of the "lesser" pitchers like Buehler or Sheffield or maybe Gavin Lux if the Twins' scouts like him at SS. I admit I haven't heard any or much chatter about Verdugo, so it may be the Twins are not interested in him or Dodgers really don't want to trade him, but he seems like he would be a good piece (I'm obviously pessimistic about Rosario as a long-term corner outfielder).
  22. nytwinsfan
    They changed the rule. Now you can trade a player drafted that year the DAY after the World Series: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/all-drafted-players-now-eligible-to-be-traded-after-world-series.html
  23. nytwinsfan
    Fantastic. I think it has to be De Leon (Urias untouchable) + either Verdugo or Alvarez or Diaz-PLUS. They are not going to trade De Leon and Bellinger, and the Twins don't need a Willie Calhoun type player. Alvarez has really high upside, even though he is a ways away, so I would think the Twins would quickly do De Leon plus Alvarez. If the second part of the package is Diaz, I would think the Twins would want something more, such as Puig (maybe Twins would throw in Rosario) or one of the "lesser" pitchers like Buehler or Sheffield or maybe Gavin Lux if the Twins' scouts like him at SS.
  24. nytwinsfan
    Umm, yeah there is. There is the cost of his contract over the next few years, which although not astronomical, is at least the cost of a very good reliever.
  25. nytwinsfan
    Jason Castro OPS: 2014: .651 2015: .648 2016: .684 "plummeting." Jason Castro WAR per 600 PA (based on fangraphs, which DOES NOT account for pitch framing): 2014: 1.875 2015: 2.4 2016: 1.755 Jason Castro, Runs above average saved due to PItch Framing 2014: 9.0 2015: 12.9 2016: 12.8 "declining." ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And yes I am aware he had a career year in 2013 when his BABIP was .351, which is .049 above his career average of .302. That was a blip, not some plateau from which he has been declining.
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