nytwinsfan

I realize that not being in full season ball is often a good reason to be conservative, but he is still pretty young, plays a premium position (although I know he still has some issues on D), and had great production for league and age. What I still haven't seen is anyone analyze his tools in great depth. I would have to imagine he'll start at Ceder Rapids next year though, right?

Wow, Palacios getting some serious love, ahead of Cameron and Ashe Russell. That's amazing. Do you expect him to be a top-20 Twins prospect this offseason? I would have to think so. Maybe even top 12.

Great interview with Kepler: http://video.startribune.com/kepler-happy-with-minor-league-title-but-being-in-bigs-amazing/328720501/ He has basically zero accent. Kind of dissapointing. I know Europeans are generally better at foreign language, but man, how does he have no accent at all? Is he just really good at language, or did he start learning English when he was little?

I think if you had a flowchart for the Twins' offseason, whether Plouffe is traded or not is at the very top. Not to say it couldn't happen after other moves, but ideally the decision about that would come first, and help determine what happens next. If Plouffe is traded, suddenly bringing Hunter back (hopefully for less than $10 million) isn't that big of a deal. It also gives a lot more flexibility for getting people like Hunter, Kepler, Arcia, and Vargas ABs if Sano is at 3B.

I agree, but I also agree with jokin that even with Buxton and Kepler starting at AAA, a roster that includes Rosario, Hicks, Hunter, Arcia, Mauer, Sano, and Plouffe is pretty crowded in terms of OF/3B/1B/DH types. In terms of position players, that leaves spots for Dozier, Escobar, Suzuki, 2nd catcher, and one back-up utility infielder (probably Nunez, Santana, Polanco, or someone else). That's 12, and that assumes (A) Vargas starts in AAA (B ) the Twins don't want a fast 4th outfielder like Robinson, and © the Twins are ok with just one back-up infielder. (A) seems possible, but I'm skeptical of (B ) and ©. I guess one solution is to make Santana the backup utility-infielder AND the fast 4th outfielder, but I'm not that high on him right now and think he should start at AAA. Given all of this, I think the Twins would be wise to (1) see if there is good value to be had for trading Plouffe, and if not, either (2) trade Vargas or Arcia and/or (3) not resign Hunter.

But add "with limited power" for both Mauer and Kepler, and isn't that exactly what Mauer's offensive profile is and was as a prospect? That's like saying, "except for the two or three most important aspects of hitting, they are totally different hitters." Granted, if Kepler turns out to be Mauer, that would be way way above his expected value. So I'm not expecting that and I don't think dxpavelka was either. But he's right that there is a similarity in their offensive profiles.

The obvious answer of what Ryan should target in a trade is: (1) a catcher that can split time with Suzuki next year and continue for years into the future, and with less urgency, (2) another strong reliever. That's basically it. Ideally, the catcher would either be (i) a prospect who is almost ready, (ii) a youngish catcher with some upside and only one or two years of service time and thus four or five years left before FA, or (iii) a solid late 20s or early 30s catcher who is an upgrade on Suzuki, but with a reasonable contract ($4 - $9 million per year) left for 2-4 years. Obviously (ii) would be the most expensive in terms of trade value, and would probably take at least Plouffe or one of our young outfielders, possibly plus another prospect. I would prefer to give up Plouffe over giving up one of the young outfielders, all else being equal, but that might not be the trade that is available.

Crushed it. LOL, jokin, i'm hard pressed to think of a single instance in which i've even mildly disagreed with you.

Congrats to the Lookouts! What a hell of a season for them, with so many guys coming through and contributing. So . . . Max Kepler starting in Left at TF tomorrow night or what?

I think the reason is because Rosario, Buxton, and Hicks look like the OF of the future and the Twins don't like to platoon. I totally agree Kepler should be playing outfield most of the time, but I don't know that that Twins see it that way.

Please elaborate!

Uggh. It is not that I think Hunter hasn't contributed this year, either on the field or in the clubhouse, but the MOST IMPORTANT thing is that he not take ABs from Rosario, Hicks, Buxton and Kepler come June, 2016. And I think this just obviously sets him up to do that. Maybe the plan is to trade Plouffe, and have Hunter play OF until June when Buxton and Kepler are up full-time and then play DH. Even that I would vote against, but that would be best case scenario. If Hunter is playing right field on June 1, 2016, however, I will cry myself to sleep.

I'd trade Plouffe if a good or high upside young(ish) catcher is available. Otherwise I'd keep him to start the year. I'd also consider trading Polanco for the right value and one of the starters (probably Milone and/or Gibson or one of Hughes/Nolasco/Santana if someone will bite). I wouldn't trade Kepler, Hicks, or Rosario unless someone really antes up big time. Vargas, Arcia and Santana should be available, but not just to get a deal done, rather as part of a deal for a catcher or solid relief pitcher we would feel comfortable pitching the 8th inning in a close game.

laloesch's conception of Joe Mauer, essentially: http://a.dilcdn.com/bl/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2013/06/ducktales-money-bin.jpg

To be fair to Mauer, some of those limits on his training probably have a lot to do with recovering from the concussion. This has been said many times, but it is a serious brain injury. And also, I think the thought (by Mauer and his coaches) was that his lack of production is more about the injury and being stiff, rather than about lack of strength or conditioning. Maybe they were all wrong, and what he needed was more strength and conditioning early, and more BP sessions. But I don't think we can say that with any certainty, and in any event, I don't think that justifies us imputing "laziness" to Mauer (which is the clear connotation of part 1 of your post, even if you didn't make it explicit). That being said, I don't really think the 37-game streak is really that big a deal or a reason to be optimistic. During those 37 games he has hit .282/.372/.387 (.759), which is better than his season numbers, but not much better, and certainly not what we need from Mauer for him to be a valuable, or even average first baseman. At some point, if his current production continues, I think the Twins will move him down in the batting order. But the reality is that the only other things the Twins can do at this point are: (1) try different things, like pulling more (even though that failed), training differently (I support that for next season if his trainers think it might help), focusing on different things, and (2) hope his brain injury heals further.

It totally depends on his health. Hopefully he can get his body right, in which case he should be starting. I could see him moving to the bullpen at some point in the latter part of his contract, but right now he should be starting as soon as he is healthy.

It has been pretty clearly shown that OBP is the more important part of OPS, when compared to SLG. See, e.g., http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mark-trumbo-and-the-relative-value-of-obp-and-slg/ or http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/ "On-base plus slugging (OPS) does attempt to combine the different aspects of hitting into one metric, but it assumes that one percentage point of SLG is the same as that of OBP. In reality, a handy estimate is that OBP is around twice as valuable than SLG (the exact ratio is x1.8)."

Interesting to see how the Twins make room for Kepler next year. I agree he will probably start in AAA, and there is some chance injuries may create room for him in the outfield, but not sure how he fits into the lineup otherwise, unless they trade Plouffe or decide to platoon in the outfield.

Yeah, I think he needs a day off every couple of weeks. He faded towards the end of last season too.

This post makes a fair point, and I think it has some validity, although a couple of qualifications. Hughes WAS AN ACE last year and at least in part it has been injuries keeping him (and others) out this year. You can't blame Ryan for those injuries. As someone pointed out above, an AceTM could have gotten injured too. In all honesty I would have preferred to have just signed Hughes for the original 3 year deal and then starting this year given Duffy, May, Rodgers, and maybe Berrios at the end more chances to start.

I'd give Arcia another shot (at DH, not OF) to start the year. I'm not ready to give up on him yet. That's one more reason I'd like to trade Plouffe this offseason, but I'm not convinced Ryan will do that.

And Gordon should be ready by around 2018, so there is a decent chance we are set at SS. Now let's worry about Catcher. Polanco and/or Plouffe seem like the obvious major pieces to make available to acquire a high-upside catcher over the next year or so.

Hopefully they call up Polanco (and Kepler) after Chattanooga's season is over, so he can give Dozier a breather for a game or two.

To see why total bases isn't as useful as OBP realize that if you get on base twice in 2 ABs with two singles, two walks, or a walk and a single, that is better than getting a double one AB and an out another AB in those same 2 ABs. This is because while an out decreases the odds significantly of further runs from the next batter(s), neither a walk nor a single do that. Now you might say, well a double is more likely to knock in a runner on 3rd, 2nd, or even (depending on the runner and the hit) 1B. But a single is likely to knock in a runner from 2B or 3B, and both a single and a BB will move runners on 1st to 2nd, and runners on 2nd and 1st to 3rd and 2nd, etc. And since we are assuming there are two of them, it does this twice, not just once. So on the ledger side of 1 double, 1 out, we have (1 occasion when any runners are moved over 2 or 3 bases, plus a guaranteed runner on 2, but we also have one occasion where no runners are moved along, and also an out, significantly reducing the chances for further runs from other batters that inning.) On the ledger side of 2 singles, 2 walks, or 1 of each we have (2 occasions when some runners are moved over a base or two (including scoring from 2B on singles), and 2 occasions with guaranteed runners on 1B, and no occasions where no runners are moved along, and also no outs reducing the chances of further hits, BB, and runs). This is my long-winded attempt at explaining quasi-intuitively what standard statistical regressions have mathematically shown. One point of OBP is worth more than AVG, and even one point of OBP is worth more than one point SLG. Of course, walks and singles are not worth the same either, with walks being less valuable (because they can't knock in a runner from 2B for instance). To deal with all of these relative values, sabermetrics has come up with wOBA, which attempts to fully value each kind of hit or walk by its likelihood of leading to a run. This has shown (and this will probably strike many people as being wrong - but really it isn't) that a HR is worth only a little bit more than twice a single (2.35 times actually). Of course Sano's HR versus KC the other night in the 12th was worth more than 2.35 times a single in that situation. Probably much much more. But wOBA is context independent. It values each hit according to how much value it would have on an average occasion. You can read about that here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-joy-of-woba/ Here is more on the relative values of different outcomes: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

That is impressive. The diving play he made earlier in the game to his right and then the rifle from the hole was just as impressive.