nytwinsfan

Thanks for the interesting list and thoughts. One reliever I think people might be overlooking is Sam Clay. His results looked bad last year, but he has good stuff (low 90s lefty w/ good slider), and the results were the result of a ridiculous .443 BABIP. People are constantly talking about how Santana is going to regress from his .405 BABIP, but pitchers traditionally have even less control over their BABIP than hitters, and Clay's was even higher. His FIP was actually quite respectable, based on a lot of Ks, with his main problem being Walks. But even walks, about half of his were in his first five games (Burdi had problems with walks his first game or two as well). So he's definitely someone whose potential is being underrated right now.

I mean, yeah his 2014 was strong. He was worth more than 6 WAR for a team that almost won the World Series.

Reports of Santana's defense that I've seen are that he has the tools (quickness, hands, arm) to be a solid defender, but makes too many errors. And his defense so far this spring has gotten glowing reviews. He probably has the higher long-term upside with the bat compared to Escobar, so let's see if he can stick at SS. I'm totally with you on playing Rosario in CF though. At least platoon him with Hicks. Either DFA Nunez (having Rosario be the secondary back-up infielder) or DFA Schafer.

In 2015, probably. But in 2016, a team with a MLB-experienced Santana at SS and Buxton in center probably beats a team with a non-MLB-experienced Santana at SS and Buxton in center. And the chances of contending in 2016 (and 2017) are much higher than in 2015. That's what Molitor, correctly, sees. I think the Twins will be decent this year, exceed expectations, and maybe even get close to .500, but making the playofffs in 2016 and 2017 is just way more important than getting a couple games closer to .500 this year. That's how I see it, anyway, and I think that is how Molitor sees it.

Great, just what we need, a manager who doesn't believe in saves. Next thing you know you'll be telling me Molitor believes in vaccines, global warming and evolution too.

Isn't the flip side of this that (1) the Twins' defense is pretty awful and/or (2) the Twins pitching staff was very unlucky last year? Otherwise I don't understand how this makes any sense.

Thanks Seth. These are awesome reports.

If you've seen Javier play, especially if you have experience as a scout, I think I can speak for everyone here in saying we would LOVE for you to elaborate more on your thoughts about his potential.

Yeah, pretty sure you are correct, they could make it to $4 million with just the 5% overage, not incurring any penalties but taxes. Someone pointed this out to Kiley on Fangraphs as well. That being said, it isn't like the Twins not to sign at least a few smaller bonus, less well known international prospects, so I would expect them to trade for more bonus. It shouldn't be too hard, especially this year where at least five teams cannot spend more than $300 K on anyone due to penalties from previous years, and thus may be more willing than usual to trade excess bonus.

You forgot current college starter who we draft at #6.

Soudns like a great guy, and a lot of the younger pitchers (Thorpe, Stewart, Gonsalves) seem to really like him and his work with them, which is important. Any ideas why his offensive production jumped so much from 2013 to 2014? He's 24, so hopefully Terry Ryan will be willing to move him from Fort Myers to Chattanooga mid-year if he continues to hit at the levels he was hitting last year. Suzuki is only here until 2016, Pinto is not guaranteed to stick at Catcher, and Turner's bat is questionable at best. Garver sounds like he might be the Twins' catching prospect with the best chance to be a contributor on both sides of the ball.

I think it is way too early to say that, and I think part of the point of Parker's two articles with regard to defense were that Pinto (1) is not as bad as he seems, and (2) to the extent he is below average, there is potential for improvement. As for his bat, I think it will be fine. His bat has been above average for a catcher, even if you just look at last year. I also think he is likely to improve on last year's adequate .705 OPS going forward.

I definitely agree that Plouffe was "very good", but only for the past year. If he continues to play at the level he played last year, then great! All the better the return we will get when we trade him!

Agreed. My only qualifications would be that there is a good chance someone else (Rosario, Kepler, or FA) is going to be batting in Hicks' spot against most right-handed pitchers, and there is a chance Polanco will have replaced Santana, and Santana will have become a super-utility guy.

Since this is a prospect discussion, a little tidbit about Buxton's offseason: Got Milk?

I would agree Aiken would rank 3rd, unless Meyer starts of the year in AAA scorching hot (i.e. goes into the 7th routinely and drops his walk rate to 2.5 per 9 innings). I would probably put Javier down at like 15-20, just because I think there is so much risk with a 16 yo, and as Parker pointed out, his swing needs a lot of work.

That looks pretty good, but it was also 18 months, 15-20 pounds, and 1 elbow ago.

That is what Ryan is saying now. I don't think it was mostly what they were saying at the time. Although they probably said something about his bat at the time too, I remember it being mostly about defense.

Fantastic analysis. Gives me hope for Pinto's defense.

This is cool. Although I'm not exactly sure about his methodology, which I don't see on this page, but this guy attempts to aggregate all of the prospect rankings published for each team, presumably by assigning points for finish on each list. He has done it for quite a few Twins lists (18 by my count - but no Gleeman). https://stealofhome.wordpress.com/2015/03/02/2015-minnesota-twins-unified-top-prospect-list/ 1 Byron Buxton CF 797 100 0 2 Miguel Sano 3B 786 98 0 3 Jose Berrios RHP 748 90 3 4 Alex Meyer RHP 747 94 -1 5 Kohl Stewart RHP 739 95 -1 6 Nick Gordon SS 724 93 1st Round 7 Jorge Polanco 2B 653 42 0 8 Nick Burdi RHP 614 82 2nd Round 9 Lewis Thorpe LHP 587 88 -1 10 Eddie Rosario CF 543 86 -5 11 Trevor May RHP 469 -2 12 Max Kepler LF 460 -1 13 Stephen Gonsalves LHP 452 42 -1 14 Amaurys Minier LHP 318 14 15 Travis Harrison LF 309 -2 16 Adam Walker RF 290 -1 17 Stuart Turner C 280 4 18 Jake Reed RHP 234 5th Round 19 Chih-Wei Hu RHP 210 Unranked last year 20 Michael Cederoth RHP 183 3rd Round 21 Felix Jorge RHP 111 -5 22 Taylor Rogers LHP 101 8 23 Mason Melotakis LHP 68 1 24 Mitch Garver C 66 24 Tyler Duffey RHP 66 14 26 Fernando Romero RHP 59 -7 27 Lewin Diaz 1B 42 28 J.R. Graham RHP 40 Rule 5 from Braves 29 J.T. Chargois RHP 39 16 30 Levi Michael 2B 36 30

Panda is also only 5 foot 11, so even if he did only weigh 240, that's still a bit more weight relative to the frame. Also, here is some context for Cabrera's weight of "240." http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2012/02/detroit_tigers_miguel_cabrera_2.html

Ok, well that is useful context. Agreed that he doesn't need to be a Gold Glove 3B, although only a slightly below average fielder would be great. The weight is all the more reason to take our time with Sano. Give him time to lose some of the weight, and also give him the hint that we have a great fielding 3B already, so if he wants to supplant him, he'll need to prove he can field adequately (and thus keep the weight off). I'd much rather wait a bit longer on Sano if it means he can play at 3B for even 2-4 years. That's just too valuable, and the Twins likely won't be competing this year anyway. They likely will be in 2016-2019.

Umm, can they tell him if he wants to play in the majors this year, he needs to lose 15 pounds? Even if that isn't entirely true, can't they tell him that? I understand he is an adult, and can do what he wants, and also that they don't want to create animostity, but the reality is, his value to the team (and the money he will make in the medium run) is significantly less if he has to move to 1B, corner outfield, or DH. Someone he respects/trusts needs to sit down with him an have a conversation. It seems like he's still under the impression he is going to be playing third, so maybe before any threats about playing time/call ups, they need to give him an honest if harsh wake up call so he fully understands he can't stay at 3B at 260 pounds. There really is nowhere else for him to go without moving Mauer, Vargas or Arcia. We just can't have an outfield with Arcia and Sano.

I'm not sure what you're saying, but my point is that Sano has a better chance of being a 3rd baseman with decent defense than he does being an outfielder with decent defense. All the evidence (including his 250 pounds which will make him slow in the outfield, strong arm, and quick hands) points to that. And we don't want Sano playing 1st or DH and taking at bats away from Vargas and Mauer (I personally might be ok with him taking ABs away from Mauer, but it isn't going to happen). So those are our options. By all means, let's wait awhile and make sure Sano is back on track from his injury, but assuming that once he shakes off any rust he continues to rake, then the choice is an easy one. Trade Plouffe, whose bat probably won't play in a corner outfield position other than as a platoon against lefties.

I personally am most excited for Buxton's first inside the park homerun, which would be more exciting than either a 3B or HR.