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DocBauer

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  1. Looking at a ML 3B comparison as presented on MLB.com, where they listed 22 3B for reasons I'm not completely sure of, perhaps total AB's?, I found the following information. Plouffe was first in doubles. He was 10th in HR, tied for 5th place in RBI, 17th in BA, tied for 13th in OB%, 9th in SLG, and 10th in OPS. With his vastly improved defense, that's a solid, quality 3B that a lot of teams could use. Not saying his trade value is super high, just saying that's a valuable ballplayer. You keep that kind of player until you have someone better to replace him. Could he revert? Of course he could. But considering he's really improved his game, overall, year to year for the last couple of years, he's just as likely, if not more so, to be as good or better next season. Until Sano is ready, in my mind, you keep Plouffe and be really happy you have him.
  2. Other than Lester, I don't know that there's a lot in the way of LH SP's on the market this year. A top LH SP is one of the harder things for a team to find. Over the years, the Twins have been pretty fortunate to have a pair of stud ones in Cy Young winners Frank Viola and Johan Santana. Additionally, at times, they've had other LH'ers who were anywhere from solid to very good amongst the likes of Anderson, Rogers, Liriano, Diamond and Duensing, when a successful starter for one season, and a few scattered others. In a perfect baseball world, I believe your team would employee one top LH SP near the top of the rotation with a second arm elsewhere in the 5. In an ideal baseball world. Of course, it's tough enough to find even one really good one. It is my hope that in two years, possibly as soon as 2016, the Twins rotation will include Hughes, Meyer, Berrios and May. That obviously leaves room for one more starter. I would love that to be a LHer. Could we sign one? Could we move ML or milb talent for one? With Gonsalves and Thorpe too far away, could Taylor Rogers, Gilmartin or Duffy be an option? There are things to like about all three. Gilmartin was a top prospect who got off to a nice start before running in to issues. Has he taken a necessary step back with the Twins this season in order to move forward? Duffy had a really nice season, put up decent numbers, even hit AAA with success. Rogers has solid numbers, but so-so SO numbers, though scouting reports vary on his pure stuff. I know Seth speaks pretty highly of him. So the question to the forum is simply, how important is a LHer in the rotation?
  3. Could Russell be a strong coaching candidate? I'm thinking so. I felt, initially, perhaps unfairly, that Glynn was sort of a throw in candidate due to age, despite his outstanding job at the milb level. But the more I read about his time in the well respected Rays organization leads me to believe he is a more serious contender than I originally believed. Or at least, a more viable ML bench coach.
  4. (Tablet screwup) Ryan is ultimately responsible for the talent presented to the manager. And yes, he bears some blame for that the last couple of seasons. But his job also covers the minors, and those responsible to draft it, manage and coach it, even if he doesn't oversee selections of picks themselves. I'm even willing to give a pass, to a degree, with his cancer scare this year, and trying to be in charge while also passing off responsibility. His track record over the years, except for his first couple of seasons, has been outstanding. I do sometimes wonder if he realizes he's no longer the GM for a Metrodome team, but that seemed to be answered last offseason with the moves he made, and attempted to make. 2015 is sort of make or break for me. I don't expect the team to win the WS this season. But if he can make the right manager hire, make a couple quality moves, call me "re-convinced" we have the right guy still in charge.
  5. Wow! We're kind of all over the place here aren't we? I figured about time I tossed my 2cents worth in. I gotta say, I'm reading a lot of very intelligent opinions here, and I can't say I greatly disagree with anyone's opinion. All logical and well thought out. I mean...I even found myself agreeing with MIKE, and that just never happens. LOL But to specifics...I am a known Gardy supporter that felt it was time. Not because he's a bad baseball guy, or has suddenly "lost it", but because I think the Twins are entering a new era, their third era since '87, and just need a new voice to lead a new charge. And to be honest, I think there was some fault with the way Gardenhire handled the final month or so in regard to playing and experimenting with some young talent. Ryan absolutely carries weight for the past 4 seasons, and brought about some of Gardy's downfall, and yet, it's not entirely is fault, IMO. I grow tired of retrospect, but it exists regardless. 2010 was a great season for the Twins. 2011 was a disaster NOBODY saw coming. And yet, the Twins had an all time high payroll of almost $113M in place to replicate 2010 with hopes of improving and taking the next step. At the least, keeping the band together. I think it would be easy for any GM to expect some rebound the next season with injuries abated, make a couple moves, etc. You can argue and debate, yet the Twins were only one year removed from a 94 win seasons. The payroll dipped, but was still over $94M, third highest in Twins history. I still believe, though it will never be admitted, that Ryan, the FO, scouts and coaching staff alike, felt in 2012 we slipped but had a shot if a few things fell right. In 2013, I think Ryan and company didn't want to tell fans and ticket holders there was no chance. But they'd make a couple moves, sell them, and hope for the best, knowing their best option was young talent and a few more moves in 2014 to get and keep everyone excited. Of course, it didn't work out that way. Not making excuses, just painting a fair picture. I don't absolve Ryan for butchering the CF situation the past couple years, though I do applaud the May and Meyer deals as aggresive and future sighted.
  6. Not sure how or why my first comment on this thread didn't get carried over, but regardless, I'm a fan of Plouffe. I absolutely believe Sano will take over the spot at some juncture, hopefully sooner rather than later, Plouffe has turned himself in to a quality ML 3B. I have a serious problem with the idea that some have of trading him at this point as I feel he is not only of great current value to us, but I also think the roster is too fluid to make a move at this point. He may never be a star player, but his defense has gone from concern to average, possibly above. And his overall offensive numbers, across the board, put him in the upper third in the league.
  7. I won't condemn a player for errors made trying "too hard" to make a play. Further experience will make him even better. They dreaded "eye test" tells me he's a gold glove caliber defender, eventually at least. I attribute some second half slide in his production to being bounced around between 3 spots in the lineup, as well as perhaps needing a couple more days off here and there he didn't get, but could have between Escobar and Nunez. My future expectations would be a rise in BA but a dip in HR production. But I could live with the opposite if he keeps the OB and all the other numbers up.
  8. Things I know, and think I know. 1) If someone has first hand knowledge where they have seen the Twins books, or have enough factual evidence to properly address the Twins total incoming dollars year to year, then they know a heck of a lot more than I do, or ever will. This pertains to the entire 50%-52% paid out for payroll. I don't know that the Twins have ever stated an absolute goal of what to spend year to year, rather, an approximate. And I would think there are a lot of factors that could lead to a yearly payroll. Not only what IS the actual income intake in a given year, but the factor of whether or not to spend simply for the sake of spending. 2) Higher payroll DOES NOT do anything to guarantee a World Series, and it doesn't always mean a playoff appearance as well. I've seen it. We all have. It does, however, indicate a better chance for a contending team. At the least, it assures a better chance to keep a team together. 3) The Twins never have been, and never will be, even with Target Field and better revenue sharing, have the finances of a NY, an LA, a Chicago, or Boston, or several other high market revenue teams. Just a fact. 4) The Twins attempted to sign Garza even after they had already signed both Hughes and Nolasco. With a season begining payroll of just shy of $86M, that means they were prepared and willing to open the season with a payroll of around $97M! 5) Reference point #4, then realize that without Garza, and adding a partial season pro rated for Morales, we're still talking a 2014 payroll output in the $89M payroll range. Consider St Peter's comments to be pretty flippant at this point considering the season JUST ENDED and nothing has been concluded yet, and his comment was a pretty arbitrary statement. Further, as I stated in an earlier post, he loosely commented on the payroll not dipping much vs the usual mantra regarding not rising much. Further further, with obvious detractions and raises, the Twins could an additional $15M in payroll and still not exceed 2014. 6) Twins payroll going back to 2004, season begining: While still in the Dome: (ML ranking) 2004: 53,584,000. (19) 2005: 56,615,000. (20) 2006: 63,396,006. (19) 2007: 71,439,500. (18) 2008: 56,932,766. (25) 2009: 65,299,267. (24) While in Target Field: (ML ranking) 2010: 97,559,167. (11) 2011: 112,737,000. (9) 2012: 94,085,000. (13) 2013: 75,802,500. (22) 2014: 85,776,500. (24) There are multiple conclusions to draw from these numbers. One is that the Twins payroll jumped significantly since they moved in to Target Field, regardless of whatever total % you care to use or speculate on. Two is that the Twins clearly felt they had something good going on with said jump in payroll for 2010, and they did, winning 94 games and a division crown. They also clearly felt 2011 would be as good or better as they topped the $100M mark for the first time in team history with a record payroll of nearly $113M. Three is that the team, rightly or wrongly, naive or not, felt they could make some moves and rebound in 2012 as they still kept the payroll in the $94M area rather than cut and run and jump right in to an immediate rebuild. 7) I am no apologist for billionaire owners and how they run their sports franchises. And as a lifelong Twins fan, I DO have a horse in this race. But for a moment, consider all the facts presented here.
  9. By reputation, I'm an optimist. But I have to say, I'm very optimistic for Mauer in 2015. I am not going to make excuses for a poor season. But there is a distinct difference between "excuses" and "reasons" for the happenings of things. Any or all of the following items could have lead to a poor season from Joe in 2014: an interrupted offseason program to get ready while still suffering/recovering from his concussion, STILL suffering from post-concussion syndrome the first half of the season (and from what we have seen and have been learning, this can't be discounted or tossed aside), the birth of Twins and first time fatherhood, the move from his primary life-long position to another, the pressure of trying to be and do too much for the team. We may never know, but to me, I still believe it's the concussion and what it did not only to his offseason preparation, but he may have still had some lingering affects early on. Couple that with any and all of the other possibilities, I could see some added pressure involved as well. Regardless, while not the same old Joe, he did look and perform better the second half of the season. I have not read or heard of anything that should slow Mauer down this offseason to get in his work in advance for next season. Further, while years of catching have probably robbed him a bit of speed and flexibility, he still posses a great deal of overall athletic talent, is not old by any means, and has different and nagging injuries in his career, and to our knowledge, doesn't suffer from anything chronic. Even if, a big and unknown if, Mauer has indeed slowed enough to no longer be a .320-.330 hitter ever again, he can still be a valuable producer as a low .300 hitter with discipline and a high .300 OB%. I've never felt a move to 1B would suddenly turn Mauer in to a consistent power producer, despite less wear and tear on his body. To me, it's always been about just being healthy enough for 150 games and just produce at his normal per AB level. That in itself would provide quality hitting, quality OB, a lot of doubles, probably double digit HR's, and a lot of R and RBI opportunities if he had someone decent hitting in front of him. I'm expecting a nice comeback and quality season for Mauer in 2015 playing a solid 1B, and hitting third for the Twins.
  10. Showalter has always had a great reputation as a smart and quality baseball guy. And for the most part, he's had good success wherever he's been. It's always seemed that his personality ends up rubbing everyone the wrong way, players and FO. He's done a great job with the Orioles. Has he found the right match? Has he mellowed over time? Or will he run himself out of Baltimore eventually as well? Just wondering.
  11. One more trade option/idea. MLTrade Rumors just did a nice write-up on the Twins, tossing out different ideas, opinions, possibles and names. One idea tossed out that I find interesting is St Loius CF/OF Peter Bourjes. I confess to knowing nothing about him, but reputation appears that he is a quality defensive CF. He hits RH, appears to have a little speed and a little XB power, but no long term offensive success. He has one 500 AB season in which his numbers were solid, one addition season with decent numbers, and three low Avg seasons. With Buxton on the way, I don't see the Twins making any major move for a CF unless it were someone like Rasmus who would be temporary before sliding to LF. Even if Washington were to let Span walk, and even if he were interested in a return to the Twins, I doubt there would be a dollars and years match, again, with Buxton on the way. I think 2015 sees an upgrade for LF, with Hicks and Schafer as candidates to win the CF spot, or share it, for now. I think a 3rd option to compete with them, and also the 4th OF spot, would be prudent. I think there a couple inexpensive FA options that will be available for said competition. But an inexpensive trade option could be very welcome. Could Bourjes be that option? Does anyone have a decent report on him? Are there other options you might name?
  12. I am also hesitant to make a big trade for an OF, even though it's an area of need. The reason simply being again, I hate to trade prospect depth too early. There are also a few options over the next season or two that could play out nicely for us. I don't know how real luck or karma truly are, but at worst, there are random factors that sometimes work for you, and sometimes work against you. On the milb side, the Twins had a lot of good happen this season. But there is no question Sano and Buxton fall in to a bad luck or unfortunate event status. I refuse to fall in to a pessimistic cycle. Buxton may take a couple years to hit full potential, a pretty obvious statement there, but should be up with the Twins for 2016, if not some time in 2015, providing excellent defense in CF, and at least some offense, if not quality offense. Combined with the still young, talented and improving but somewhat enigmatic Arcia, gives the Twins 2/3 of a starting OF. Plouffe could provide some solid trade bait within the confines of the next year or so. He could still make a move to the OF. Santana could end up in LF instead of SS depending on his defense, and the play of Escobar. Rosario has the ability to be a quality LF and ML hitter with a combination of XB power and a little speed. Walker is probably a couple years away, but shouldn't be discounted. Therefore, I'm still in favor of saving prospects, spending money that the Twins have to spend, even if they do make a significant SP signing, and go the FA route for an OF. The Twins could pop for 2 quality FA's, spending $25+M and STILL keep their 2015 payroll in the $92-95M area. They were nearly $86M in 2014 BEFORE paying for part of Morales' contract. Which means they already $90M or so '14. Now, if there was a deal for prospects, not naming names, where they could acquire a young(ish) OF that the team could plug in and control for more than a couple years, then I rethink the trade option.
  13. I have to say, as much as I like Meyer and believe in his potential, I'm not opposed to including him in a deal for a top SP. This is provided said deal is for a true 1-2 option, or 2 with some upside still remaining and definitely under 30, preferably in the 25-28 yo range. Otherwise, you're back to an over 30 SP who could as many as 5 quality years, or as few as 3, and a larger contract. And you've traded a group of 3-4 prospects/players to get him. It assists in the short term, but again, may not be wise for a team getting younger and rebuilding. You might just be better off signing a FA and keeping the prospects for at least one more year, something I've already advocated. While there may be a few options, including a couple buy low options, it seems to me the best of all worlds might be Ervin Santana on a 3 year deal for $42-45M. Possibly with a fourth year club option with a $1-2M buyout. Why would Santana sign with the Twins? A quality pitchers' park, a solid guaranteed contract, and the choice of manager, pitching coach, and even the presence of a quality Latin coach or two, plus the influx of young Latin talent on the club could all be factors in our favor. Barring an injury or just another yo-yo season, and Santana has had a couple of those, the Twins keep their prospects but still upgrade the rotation, and as a result, the entire roster. And they do so without breaking the bank. Is Santana a #1? No. But how many #1's are really available without a major, major move or commitment? His career numbers rate him slightly better than Nolasco's, though a bit less consistent. And when on, or mostly on, he ranks very close to Hughes territory.
  14. I would have no problem with a one year make good deal for multiple reasons. One, if there's something else going on here physically, you obviously have no long term risk. Two, his contract and Pelfrey's would both run out simultaneously, allowing for a Masterson re-sign, a Hughes re-sign, or an entirely different FA signing. And thirdly, in strong theory, May, Meyer and Berrios should all be ready, and indeed, all three should probably have at least a little ML time under their belt
  15. I have two answers/opinions on this question. And it depends not only who will ultimately be made available on the market, but also how the Twins approach the current rebuild. Do you identify a pair of players to jump start the rebuild more quickly and lay out the cash and reasonable yearly terms? Or do you believe strongly as to who might be climbing the ladder quickly enough that you don't want to block progression? The Twins entered 2014 with a reported payroll of $85,776,500M. They added to that with Morales for somewhere around 1/4 of a season at least. That would have to put the payroll payout somewhere in the $88M range, at least, though you did save a little of Willingham's and Correia's salary with late trades, though not much. If you go down the list and cross off the obvious scratches, you end up with a committed payroll of just shy of $66,000,000 if Deunsing is brought back. A raise to Suzuki and a few other "avoid arbitration" raises and you add roughly $5-6M to that total. So $88M minus $72M, roughly, you could add an additional $16M in additional payroll to the team without raising 2015 payroll above the 2014 expenditures. Option #1: You sign a quality SP for the rotation, maybe not one of the proposed #1's on the market, but perhaps Ervin Santana, who the Twins have been tied to before, for 3-4 years at around $14-16M. Next, you bring in that one quality veteran OF to deepen the lineup, and he'll settle the OF situation. This could be Rasmus as a CF/LF option, or a Cabrerra or Markakis as example for around $8-10M per. This puts you around $94-98M. I think the Twins could very easily afford this as they've been there before, recently, and even been higher. Option #2: The Twins really believe in Meyer, Berrios and a few other pitching options, and feel there are other ready or close OF options and don't want to block them or commit big money and years to other players in the interim. The Twins then sign a stop gap OF on a "make-good" or "last contract/season" deal for $5-7M. Then they look for another SP option, NOT a KC or Pelfrey, but another Hughes, or similar make good contract on a high upside arm. Think Scott Kazmir, who I advocated each of the past couple of years. That could be anywhere from $5-8M. Total, this option is about $15M or so, keeps the 2015 payroll the same, could still offer a nice boost, but doesn't tie up dollars and years as much to block prospects, or limit 2016 moves, including a possible re-sign of Hughes. Both options make sense and could be worthwhile.
  16. Yes in the fact he's been considered a top of rotation starter for some time. But no that the reports are all old. Coming out of the last AFL season people were pretty jazzed by his performance and he was still regarded as a top of the rotation arm. The only reason anyone is down on him is because of his inconsistency this year. 24 is not old for any AAA prospect, including a top arm on a 6' 9" youngster polishing mechanics. He walked too many and his change still lacks the consistency needed. But at times the coaches at Rochester spoke in glowing terms of how it looked. He walked too many to be sure, but also lead his league in SO's. And despite a pair of bad stretches, he also had two or three stretches where he was just lights out about every time he took the mound. And again, he's risen steady up the ladder and this was his first time at AAA. I'm excited for him and have little fear or doubt at this time. Just a side note, despite what I just stated, and believe strongly, if he would turn out to be the potentially lights out closer mentioned in the article, it might be a disappointment, but said disappointment would be tempered with the aspect of a top closer to eventually replace Perkins.
  17. I believe Sano is about as close as you can get to being a sure thing. The overall talent is about as undeniable as you can get. That being said, there are a couple tempers to be considered. Defensively, Sano has shown vast improvement with his glove, footwork and positioning. He also has a rocket for an arm. Remember, he's actually a former SS. That being said, the reactions at 3B are different. He's not a pitcher, the rehab of his strong arm is very different than for a pitcher. However, 3B defense, quality ML defense takes time. Gaetti took time. Koskie took time. Plouffe has taken time. Just realize that when Sano arrives, there could be an initial dip in defensive play at the hot corner, but it shouldn't be unexpected. Plouffe has developed in to a valuable player. And he'll own 3B to begin 2015. I don't know if he will stick there, or move to the OF, become a valuable and versatile utility player, or become a quality trade option. But he's really nice to have. Glad we have him. And it's a nice problem to have!
  18. Stringer, you said something I've been thinking for a time now but was hesitant to actually say, the fact that Gibson might end up a top of the rotation starter, #1 or 2. I dismiss 2013 entirely. Despite calls to call him up early before he shot all his bullets....NEVER understood that analogy...I thought the Twins handled him well, following his surgery rehab, working things out, stretching out, simply building up innings and endurance. Ryan and Gardenhire would never admit it, but I thought his rather lousy 2013 with the big league club was about learning, working, and building himself up. I've listened to games and watched games when Gibson was at his best and his worst. Despite all the inconsistencies he showed this past season, his final numbers and W-L record show that he was more good than bad in his "rookie" season. And really, he was a rookie save for a couple innings pitched in '13. It would be trite to say that when Gibson was ON he looked anywhere from good to almost dominating. You could say that about almost any pitcher couldn't you? Except, when Gibson was ON, which was more often than he was "off", you could see real flashes. Flashes that passed the eye and gut test to tell you that if he could just figure out a couple things, if he could just find a little more consistency, there was something there just ready to take charge. If Gibson does what I think he will do, what I believe you also think he will do, he will plant himself just behind Hughes at some point soon as the Twins second best SP, ahead of a healthy Nolasco. Or possibly as the Twins #3 SP if there is a big trade or FA target.
  19. An opposite viewpoint, and echoing some of Stringer's points, I've actually seen improvement from Arcia in the defensive area. Perhaps it's my imagination, but I thought his defense showed better the last month or two, which is also when he seemed to come more alive with the bat. Coincidence? Maybe. At 23, and loaded with talent and ability, I still find myself encouraged with his future. The last couple of months add to this. I really don't want to go the ethnic route, but there has always been a bit of an accepted generalization that Latino players tend to be more free swinging and less disciplined in their approach at the plate. Now, I don't know how realistic this generalization really is, but it's been out there. Whether or not it's true, or to what degree if it is, I still believe a Latin coach, or two, on the next coaching staff would do a lot to just assist in the communication of teaching for a large majority of the young players arriving in the system.
  20. I don't know who the next Twins manager is going to be, internal or external in hire, and I have no clue who his pitching coach choice might be, but I do hope he embraces some newer tendencies and metrics to stay current with the times. But whether internal or external in his hiring, I sincerely hope that he DOES adopt the "Twins Way" whole heartedly! I know fans are frustrated and disappointed with the last four seasons. I also know that in successful seasons, there are those fans who simply can't be happy with success and are obsessed with nit picking. But the duo or TK and the much maligned Dick Such ushered in the Twins Way of doing things. Despite playing in a lousy park with limited payroll, they provided TWO World Series champions, multiple winning teams, all stars, great memories and yes, even a stretch of multiple lousy and losing seasons before ushering in a new wave of talented players that was the second generation of winning the Twins Way. Gardenhire and Anderson never did win a World Series. Is that really their only crime? With that duo at the helm, mostly still within the confines of the Metrodome and limited budget, they had ONE losing season in the first nine years they lead the team. ONE. They also produced five 90+ win seasons! two MVP winners and a pair of CyYoungs along with multiple all stars. There has been a lot of talk about the Royals season this year, reaching the playoffs after 29 YEARS. You think their organization, and their fans, and the fans of many other organizations, wouldn't love to trade places with the overall success of the Twins organization the past 27 years? Are the Twins possibly on the cusp of a "third wave" of a talent influx that should lead them to serious competitive heights? Absolutely! Was it time to make a change and look forward? More than likely, and now a moot point. The Twins Way, when the roster has at least decent talent, is to play the game the right way; pitching, defense, power and speed with aggressive base running mixed with situational hitting, and a team, not just a roster, made of home grown talent mixed with FA's, trades, and even waiver acquisitions. We need to stop revisionist history born from current frustration. TK and Dick Such, Gardenhire and Anderson were highly successful, overall, though in slightly different ways. And when they had decent rosters, their teams played and produced in the Twins Way. I'm hoping the next generations at the helm produces in similar Twins Way fashion.
  21. Meh. Interesting but nothing earth shattering. There's nothing wiring with the article, but most of us here on TD have been reading, even discussing, all the same reports for 2 plus years with all of these kids. To put a lot of faith in the Meyer write up is being pessimistic and fatalistic. Call me stubborn or optimistic if you will, but virtually every other report I've ever read on Meyer has him as a quality ML SP with #1 potential. The guy was a first round pick for a reason. The top, or one of them, prospect in the Washington system when acquired, and has been a top 1-3 prospect in the Twins system since being acquired for a reason. He was a top performer in the AFL for a reason. He was in the Futures Games for a reason. So to get all worked up because one person writes a report saying his potential is lower is just silly. Meyer is still young, has mad stuff, was on a pitch count, in his first tour of AAA, and still working on his 3rd pitching and repeating mechanics. Not uncommon for any or most pitching prospects, even top ones. The parts of the article I found interesting was how highly they seemed to regard the "lesser" ranked prospects. Seemed they generally felt most of them had genuine ability to reach the majors at some point in some capacity.
  22. Not only a very impressive and exciting list, but there is a very, very good chance that 5 of the Twins top 10 prospects should at least spend some time with the Twins in 2015, with the possibility of any or all graduating to legitimate, full time major leaguer! May should be part of the rotation out of ST barring something unexpected. I don't know about anyone else, but I was pretty impressed after the first few starts once he settled down. When he learns a bit more consistency, and can economize his pitches a bit more, I think he has a real chance to be a quality starter. Like a lot of youngsters, he seemed to suffer from bouts of "put them away" disease at times. The cure comes with experience. If he becomes a really nice 3 that's a really good thing. But I do find to odd to pigeon hole such a young talent so early with expectations. Meyer is sooo close, and should be up at some point, if not right away. Sano and Buxton have rust to shake off, especially Sano, and it's hard to predict when either could/should be up. But their immense talent trumps all, and they should be up at some time. Burdi is fascinating. I don't agree with rushing any young player. But that being said, I really believe we could be looking at a fast riser who could be up June or July. That's 5 of 10 with real shots to make it at some point. Berrios could have a shot, and I'm a big fan and believer, but hopefully there is no reason to rush him. Duffy could have a shot at some point, but again, hopefully no reason to rush him. Polanco and Rosario shouldn't be counted out, but again... Don't fall asleep on Melotakis. I'm very anxious to see what he does in the AFL.
  23. There has certainly been a lot of hope, thought and debate about the Twins signing a FA SP for 2015. And one name that has been brought up a lot is Ervin Santana. I believe his name comes up for two primary reasons: 1) he would appear more affordable in dollars and years that the "top tier" FA options like Lester and Scherzer and others and 2) the Twins were tied to Santana last off season and actually made at least a cursory run at him. I find him an intriguing possibility and decided to take a closer look. I broke down Santana's last 7 seasons, roughly, for perspective. He hasn't exactly been a model of consistency in the W-L column, but his peripherals in a few of his seasons indicated he pitched well enough for a better record than he ended up with. Over the past 7 seasons he has averaged 12 wins and 10 losses, has averaged 199 IP per, and has pitched 190 innings plus 6 of those 7 seasons. Twice he won 16 games, 17 once. For comparison sake, I also examined Nolasco. In Nolasco's case, I examined the 6 years BEFORE this season as it was largely a lost season due to injury. Over those 6 seasons, he proved to be a greater model of consistency year to year in the win column, though never experienced the highs of Santana. Still over those 6 seasons he averaged 13 wins and 10 losses with an average of 191 2/3 IP, and has pitched 185 plus innings 5 times, 190 plus 4 times. Each had a down year, 2009 for Santana, 2010 for Nolasco, where their starts and IP took a dive. So that equals out. The whole point is that Santana might have had a couple higher highs, Nolasco may have been more overall consistent, (maybe more impressive playing for some bad Miami teams), but the overall production of these two veterans is very, very comparable. Overall, is Santana perhaps the more potentially explosive and dynamic of the two? Probably. But I also think this offers an interesting perspective for those who are so down on Nolasco after this last season. I think it's important to guard against disappointment vs potential. Comparing Santana's overall numbers in regard to 2013 vs 2014, pitching for the Royals and the Braves respectably, he started one more game for KC in 2013 than he did for Atlanta in 2014, but other than SO's, his numbers for KC in '13 were all better, though his wins were 14 to 9 in favor of this season. This all despite pitching in what is generally considered an "easier" league to pitch in. Not a knock on Santana, who I think could be an awesome fit for the Twins in 2015, rather, a real hope for Nolasco to return to form next season, and what each could mean to the Twins next season if they pulled the trigger. Could Santana have won 14 games were he with the Twins in 2013, consider we did take a shot? We'll never know. But Gibson won 13 and Hughes won 16. Our offense was solid, though sometimes inconsistent in its sporadic nature, and the pen did fade the last third of the season. But could Santana's presence have saved the pen some? I think that's entirely possible. For a moment, let's play with Santana and his 14 wins and 196 IP being with the Twins. And let's take it one more step and just say he hit his 7 year average of 12 wins. And we'll go one step further and have a healthy Nolasco and his 6 year average of 13 wins. Between those two, and Hughes, and Gibson, Correia while with the Twins, and May's time after Correia, and the Twins would have 62 wins from their starting rotation with 3 SP eclipsing the 190 IP mark, and a 4th just shy of 180. Yes this is pure fantasy. And I don't know that you could ever call Hughes or Santana an ACE pitcher, though they both have the ability to be dominant at times. But I also think this shows just how close the Twins could be to a winning club with a pitcher of Santana's ability, (though not an ace), combined with what we have, along with Nolasco just healthy and pitching to normal levels. Like I said, just for fun.
  24. Honestly, after my initial post way back at the begining, I was going to stay out of this one. But this caught my eye. "Pohlad said Target Field revenues should allow the Twins payroll to remain in the $95 million range beyond this season"...........and what? Forever? For 2011? Long enough to keep what was a winning team in tact? No matter what, even if it meant tossing money to mid and lower tier FA or aging veterans on the decline just to keep the payroll at that amount? Look, all I'm saying is some perspective needs to be kept. I'm not on any side in this arguement even though I have a horse in the race. NOBODY saw the Twins spending what they did last season. And do I have to say again, they TRIED to spend more but were rebuffed at a couple of the turns they tried. Then they signed Morales, spending more money, in an attempt to improve the club. Do I think all the money was spent wisely? No. Are there a couple moves that could have been made, or at least attempted, that even I could have attempted if out in charge for a few days? Well.......maybe. Do I think you can just buy a winning team? No. Can you spend more, and spend wisely? Yes. Do I want the Twins to spend more now for improvement? Again, yes. I don't think the $60M I've seen tossed around is accurate. My review of the finances for next season seem higher. But regardless, there is room to spend even if the payroll didn't increase. And St. Peter's comment is a pretty off the cuff remark if you ask me, and not worth the vitriol. We have a long way to go people.
  25. First off, the Twins season is over, but only by days, the ML season still has a few weeks to go, stoves are not even warm yet, much less hot, and the Twins don't even have a new manager or coaching staff yet. Shame on the. What's it been, 72 hours already? Secondly, the comments by St. Peter truly mean nothing at this point in the context of point #1. In fact, when compared to previous off season comments that spoke of payroll "not rising significantly" compared to this new comment regarding payroll not expecting to drop, it's almost an optimistic complete about face. Third, despite the busy off season last year through FA, and the final payroll figures, the Twins STILL made some attempt at E Santana and a big push for Garza in order to improve the club and ADD additional payroll. They also brought on Morales in an attempt to help the club, FURTHER ADDING payroll. The fact is the payroll will be dropping, leaving room for signings. Using those finances, plus some more, would indeed raise payroll, though perhaps "not significantly" based on final total numbers, whatever those final total numbers turn out to be. I don't see a rebuilding, getting younger, milb rich team pumping $40M in to the FA pool. Fourth, can we please stop taking innocuous statements by any member of the FO, manager or coaching staff, or members of the team, and immediately take them as something subversive? Speculation is one thing. But implicating under the bus comments or suggesting conspiracy with every tweet or quote is getting a bit out of hand.
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