DocBauer

The good: Milone has some track record of success and didn't stink during ST. Now, that's not a ringing endorsement, but it is factual. Personally, I thought May was the guy to beat, but he was slowed by his early illness. It would seem there is time for everyone to get one more start in. Why make the announcement/decision now when all parties could audition that one more time? But three years ago, two year ago, possibly even last year, a guy like Milone as our 5th starter would have made us feel pretty good. And honestly, I don't feel that this is going to be anything remotely permanent. For the most part, I'm not upset about no Rosario, no Buxton, no Sano and no Polanco. Did anyone really think they were going to...more or less...bypass AA ball and jump to the Twins lineup during ST? The offense was much improved last season. There is a real possibility it could be even better this season with Dozier and Santana possibly even better, a whole season from Vargas, a return to form (or near it) from Mauer, etc. Santana is a quality pitcher. Healthy, he's 200 IP and 13-14 wins that you can almost write down in ink. His track record also shows very clearly that with a team playing solid all around baseball, he has the ability to rise and be a 15-17 game winner. He's done it before. And the kicker is, Gibson might just be the Twins second best starter when all is said and done. Don't hate Nolasco. Be happy he's back healthy and looking OK. One reason is he really is a solid career ML starter who is our #4 guy for goodness sake. We used to sign guys like him, or lesser, to lead this staff. (Correia anyone?) Secondly, the better he does, the greater value for trade bait later in the season. Be disappointed, if you will, that 6 or 7 rookies didn't make the Twins out of ST. Or realize that we just might score some runs, and have the best rotation we've had in YEARS, with a large group of talented youngsters oh so very close.

John...I'm no expert...but I think that might be the same finger flashed for the "throw it straight" ball.

Very nice John! And some beautiful photos! Heck of a camera and zoom you have there! I haven't been around enough, or seen enough, to know if this is really true or not...but...can there be a more beautiful milb ballpark than Hammond in Ft Meyers? Absolutely gorgeous! My father was there two years ago, had a blast making friends in the crowd, talking to Watkins and Kepler and others. Sitting around, having a couple beers, and telling me about his trip, he was giddy as a schoolboy. LOL This was supposed to be the year we talked about going together. Didn't work out that way, but here's hoping next year is indeed the year. Color me Target Field outfield green for all of you who have made the trek this season.

Two words: "Love Boat Photos" OK...I guess that's really THREE words. Despite sharing a building, despite being a similarly popular Minnesota/Minneapolis based professional sports franchise, ever notice how there was never a single report of a single Twins baseball player being involved in the sordid "love boat" scandal? Of course, it's possible NFL players refuse to hang out with ML players. And it's possible the Twins and all key front office personnel were out of town at the time....but I find those arguements to be circumstantial. Love Boat Pictures of various Twins personnel. Hey....I'm just saying.

Interesting breakdown! Just curious, but does the catcher give a thumbs up sign to indicate the pitch should be belt high or above? Or is that simply a given for Pelfrey? And exactly what and how many fingers are flashed by the catcher to indicate that the ball should be thrown straight?

Absolutely true. And I didn't mean to intimate that careers were suddenly over. I just find it frustrating that Oliveros wasn't 100%, and that some of the other kids could be inconsistent, but not necessarily bad, and a veteran would seem to have a job locked up while pitching just aweful...to this point. I guess this eternal optomist is just frustrated. But I've said for some time now that the pitching staff, starters and relievers alike, that starts the season is not necessarily the staff that ends the season. Or even is the staff in the second half of the season.

And right now, Boyer interests me more than Stauffer who has exactly ONE solid appearance. I hope the Stauffer signing pays off. And if it does I'll root like crazy for him. But I have to say I'm disappointed that the younger prospects have fallen by the wayside, even though they mostly outperformed him to this point.

A battle is exactly what we want and need isn't it? Like last season, when just about everyone figured Gibson would begin the season in Rochester, there was a battle and the right guy, the young guy, made the club. No offense to Milone or Pelfrey, but they are not a part of the future of the club. May is.

PS...I can understand the sentiment to move Santana back to CF. And I still believe he may see some time out there. But I have a really hard time taking a really talented SS, putting him back in to CF again, for what will still be a temporary move, and then...then do what with him a year for now? NOW try to make him your full time SS? Now put him in LF or RF where Arcia will be and probably Rosario?

The problem is not Escobar. The problem, and it's a good one, is Santana. I like Escobar a lot. I was part of the "Free Escobar" campaign. I still like him a lot. And if this was just about any time in the last 10 years, the Twins would...and us...would be ever so grateful for him and he'd be written in ink, carved in stone for the starting SS spot. But it's not the past, it's now. Santana has as much pop if not more. Santana has more range, a stronger arm (so it seems), and more overall athleticism. Santana has more speed. Santana appears to have as good or better bat and as good or better discipline. So, no offense to Escobar, but he should start at SS over Santana why? Again, not a knock on Escobar, just a reality on Santana.

No energy to continue fighting for Nunez as an ok player for the end of the bench. So while Polanco will probably make him obsolete by next season, for now, if my choice is throw Nunez to the wolves, or embrace him as a solid/decent 25th man option..."Yaa Nunez!"

NEVER thought Rosario was in the mix for a day one spot. And yet...I'm starting to believe he has a shot. THAT would be a huge surprise. And not an unpleasant one. Pinto is almost assuredly the backup at catcher barring just bad play, IMO. I like Herrmann, always have. Always felt there was potential there as a solid bad and OK versatile position player. It's between he and Nunez for the final spot. Nothing against Milone, but I want May or Meyer and the other to come up when Nolasco proves himself and gets traded. Right now, I think Milone is the man. I don't think Stauffer is a given at all at this point. But Graham might be. So might be Pelfrey. That could leave Tonkin or someone taking Stauffer's spot. Kind of strange to feel the roster is almost set already. Is that good or bad?

Back to Nunez, he and Herrmann are clearly fighting for the 25th spot on the roster. And honestly, they each potentially bring something useful to the club, and I wish there was room for both. I don't understand all the vitriol about Nunez, never haven never will, and we will just agree to disagree. Personally, if you're asking me what I want for the last player on my bench; a hot glove who can't hit a lick and has no power..OR..a so-so to OK glove at multiple positions who can hit and run some with a bit of pop, I guarantee you Im taking the flexible guy who can hit a little and help out here and there. He's not a starter. He's not even the top utility guy. He's a fill-in role player.

Back on original topic, I understand regression and there are various reasons to doubt Santana both offensively and defensively. Two things though: 1) Every single thing he did last year he was not supposed to do. And yet...he kept doing them. Then he gets hurt a little, comes back, and just about all of us, including me, figures the mojo dream is gone now, and Cinderfella will leave his cleat at the ball park and the Cadillac will turn back in to an old fungo ball. Instead, he just keeps keeping on. 2) Never forget the guy didn't walk in off the street. He's a very talented athlete whom a lot of people said very good things about in the past. And thus far, still early, he's done nothin ing in ST but hit and play good to great defense. The "I just knew it was too good to be true" part of me remains wary. But honestly, I no longer bet against this guy.

Neat story. Sometimes you almost forget there are real lives behind the names in the boxscores. Thanks Seth!

A really great article Thry. And I can't really put finger to keyboard here and disagree with you. And yet...we have disagreed a bit on this topic over the last couple of years. I absolutely agree that THIS is the year where the bullpen gets a revamp. It's time. And I'm not so sure that the bullpen that begins the season is the bullpen that ends it. I think Burdi, amongst a couple others, could make things really interesting. But I think where we disagree is that the bullpen wasn't always as bad as advertised the past couple of seasons. Were I not too busy, tired and lazy, LOL, I would bet real money I could prove the Twins pen the past few seasons was much better May thru July/August than the final numbers suggest. A worn out bullpen will begin to shatter at some point. I agree the bullpen needs to be addressed. I think we have a lot of really talented arms that need, and are worthy, of opportunity. I also think by mid season there will be another 1-3+ bullpen arms ready to audition. The question is, will Molitor and Ryan and staff make room? Even before that, will they make room for the guys they already have on roster? Because while I feel the entire Twins organization wants to move forward, Im still worried they might stick with veteran/contract pitchers for the reason of.........? Go ahead and give Graham a shot if you think he's for real. Give Stauffer his $2M shot. But to me, don't you dare ignore Tonkin, Oliveros and others just because.

I am on board with this. But I'm also high on Turner as well. It's hard enough to acurately predict just how good a top pick will be in the majors...if he makes it at all...much less try to decide right now how good Garver and Turner will be as ML'ers after a full season of A ball. But I think there's something here. Turner won the Johnny Bench award for the top college defensive catcher. I believe Garver finished second. We've heard raves about Turner behind the plate, but I've also heard nothing but positives about Garver defensively. I was surprised Garver was selected as late as he was considering his second place finish and big college bat at a premium position, despite worries his league inflated his numbers. Thus far, it doesn't appear his production had too much helium. Turner, meanwhile, still has potential offensively, and hit what, .280+?, after a rough first month or so? Catcher is a pretty unique position. It's hard to find a really good all-around one. Right now, the Twins seem to have a couple pretty good ones to watch. (And potentially another 1 or 2 younger and lower in the system) I don't get too wrapped up in the ages of catchers. There is a difference, to me, of a 24-25 yo OF putting up quality numbers in A ball vs a similar age catcher. (I believe this may still apply to Pinto as well)

Wish I felt better about Robinson. All I see is a AAA player, or 7 day call up. Or am I missing something? Is he that good defensively? Definitely not the option I wanted. Maybe I'm just an optimist, but I've been feeling better and better about Hunter.

Around 250, or whatever his "normal" weight is, he stays at 3B. And with time and work...along with a little more maturity, and that's reality, not a knock...he might be very good at third with his arm and overall athleticism. But he'll be average at best when he first comes up. And that's ok. Gaetti and Koskie were both average at best when they first arrived. Same with current 3B Plouffe. Same with just about any good ML 3B. Bat comes first, defense arrives a little later. But even if/when he moves, 1B is the obvious move. It's a mirror to 3B defensively, more or less, and thus easier to transition to vs the OF. Additionally, with Arcia and Buxton scheduled for 2 of 3 OF spots, and Rosario and others on the way, keeping Sano in the infield seems to make more sense.

LOVE this stuff! Can't even begin to tell you how many pieces of paper I've filled up over the years with lineups and projectables. Of course, it never really matters as someone always exceeds, and someone always disappoints. But it sure is fun isn't it? I also agree and project a big rise in power over the next couple of seasons for our Twins. When you look at the potential to muscle up with guys like Sano, Buxton, Varga, Arcia, Dozier, Rosario, possibly Walker and Kepler both,and some additional infielders who are better than simply punch and judy hitters, you have to get pumped. But there is also some speed in there, which excites me. And while it hasn't entirely manifested itself, for rather obvious reasons, there is some solid OB potential as well. HR power is awesome, and can be a game, series and season changer. But given the choice of a station to station team with little speed, a lot of K's but legit 200 HR power, OR, a team with a solid OB, some speed, 300 doubles and only 150 HR's, I'm definatly taking the second option. I think Santa's BA drops, but his OB goes up, his SB's go up, and there is a slight uptick in power. 8 HR's, but 10 wouldn't surprise me. Dozier at 22, but more evened out between first and second half of the season. I think, overall, a few days off here and there to catch his breath, and hopefully a more stable spot in the every day lineup, I think this will be Dozier's best and most consistent season. Mauer, who I am addressing in a different thread, will return to form, and hit 12 HR's. Remember you read it here first when I say I could very defineately see 16. The next 3 get tough! No reason Vargas couldn't and shouldn't hit 30 plus. Except, oh yeah, he's a rookie. As few as 15 with some struggles, possible a trip on the Rochester shuttle for a couple weeks somewhere, but 30 potential....this and that...yin and yang...I'm saying he sticks despite some ups and downs. I'm saying he has positive hitters in front of him, and behind him, and oh yeah, a TON of talent and natural ability. At least 18, but I believe in thekid and we'll cut him some rookie slack and call it 23 HR's. Hunter hits next unless the warranty suddenly runs out. He could slide from last season, and smart money says at least a little regression. But I'm also a believer in baseball karma. I think excitement, energy, a great story, coming home, a nice ball park, what might be the last season in the sun culminating in a solid final season. I think Hunter dings 14 or 15. We'll go with the over here. Arcia is going to drop some jaws this season. He will strike out more than we want, but walk more than we expect, and put together a solid and somewhat surprising slash line. Do we really keep forgetting how young he is and how talented and potential filled? He absolutely will not hit his ceiling this year. And he will still provide some inconsistency that will tease and frustrate. That is why he's hitting mostly in the 5 and 6 spots. But he'll have 30 doubles, better overall slash marks, and 25-30 HR's. Let's split the difference and call it 27. Plouffe absolutely has the ability to crank out 21-23 HR's at 3B,and easily could, though his doubles would see a decline. While that would be very nice, I'm going to go with "not" here. The changes I've seen in his overall game leads me to believe he won't sacrifice upticks in overall contact and hitting approach simply for power. I'm seeing 15 dingers. Suzuki...yeah...probably 3. And you can call me an overly rosy optimist if you wish, but I have a gut feeling about Pinto. I don't believe we are talking the next Gary Carter here, but, I have a feeling his attitude and work ethic are real, as is the improvement we've heard whispers about. I believe he will be the backup catcher. I do believe he will perform well enough to stick, and to garner more playing time as he proves his mettle, with the occasional DH game as well. 7-10 HR's...let's just say 8 to be conservative, and combine it with Suzuki to call it a total of 11. So now we come to the bottom of the order, the CF position, and general "ick". I pray we get a combined .250-.260 ish AVG and OK OB% in the .320-.330 range between Hicks and Schafer, barring some big surprise. Don't want to be a downer, just don't have a lot of faith or enthusiasm at this point. Schafer seems to have little power, and Hicks, thus far, has shown little as well. And from the broken down swings I've seen here at TD, he's never going to with hips that fly open before the ball gets there. We're talking 5-6 HR's here...we'll be optimistic with 6. That's 139 dingers. Always going to have a few more from the other bench guys like Escobar and Nunez, a promotion or two and September. Figure 10 to 15 more for a 150-155 total for the team.

Fun history lesson! But now we know why some Twins pitching prospects are slow to be promoted: lollygagging!

First of all, leadoff is a title, and in truth, not a description. Anyone can "leadoff" an inning. The #1 BO guy we're talking about could easily bat "leadoff" a second time in a game, and often seems to do so. But regardless, his job is to make things happen, create opportunities, for the hitters behind him. Regardless of how many outs, if any. This can be done by getting on base, via speed and stolen bases, or XB power. In my younger days, I saw Boggs in Boston and Downing in California hit solid/great with good/great OB% and XB power, but couldnt steal a base if given a head start. Conversely, I saw guys like Vince Coleman, for example, hit some, but not necessarily have the great OB and little to no power, but excellent speed to stretch plays and put pressure on the opposition, as well as provide opportunities for the hitters behind him. Secondly, I've always held the belief that your #3 hitter should be one of your best all around hitters. Big power would be great, but its also to have a guy who can hit and get on base as well as provide some power. This allows him to drive in runs, but also help perpetuate an inning. From the past, again, guys like Hernandez, Grace and Joyner come to mind. (just examples, and co-incidence they happen to be first basemen) Mauer has caught a lot of grief in the past for not being a big power hitter or putting up big RBI totals. Santana has real ability to make things happen in the #1 or 2 spots. There are reasons for Dozier to hit in all 3 top spots. I don't like Mauer in the second spot due to lack of foot speed, and not hitting to the right side enough. But big OB% with 40 double power could make him enticing in the #1 hole. A return of Mauer being Mauer and I like him in the #3 spot. FWIW...with a possible flip-flop at the top... Santana Dozier Mauer Vargas Hunter Arcia Plouffe Suzuki Whoever does the best job in CF Best mix of hitting, power and speed and even handedness balance.

Killer first name the kid has!

I find your facts staggering! Not debatable...I trust you...but our Twins have out-homered the opposition THREE TIMES since 1983? I find that incredulous. Especially when I think about some of the teams in the past that featured guys like Hrbek and Gaetti and Puckett, not to mention Bruno. Wow! I do love power. I do want more power. Doesn't everyone? But power isn't everything, and please forgive me for stating the obvious. But I'd rather have 300 doubles plus from my team with a little speed and some good OB than 200 HR's and little or no speed and lower OB with high K rates....for example. There is some tremendous offensive potential forthcoming for the Twins...potentially. (the UGLY "P" word) Power, speed, and mixtures with the likes of Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Dozier, Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Rosario and others. Do you realize we may actually not have enough room for everyone in the next 2-3 years? Always thought the perfect lineup was 2 guys at the top of the lineup who gave you a nice combo of everything; Avg, OB, pop and speed. You followed that with a mix of LH/RH/SH hitters with variable skills but who could all give you 30 doubles and anywhere from 15-30 HR's, and a #9 hitter who could either surprise with power, or be a nice mixed bag who could help flip the lineup back over again. The Twins are sooooo close to this being a reality. Can the season start yet? LOL

Sano is young. He's athletically gifted, not just powerful. He is a former SS. He has a cannon for an arm. He wears his size and weight well. He's improved defensively not only season to season, but half season to half season. Granted, there might still be some growing pains at the milb AND ML level, but why are so many so quick and almost eager to move him off 3B before he even plays a single inning at the ML level? Is there some perception that he simply can't play the position that I've never heard of or read? Is there some perception that he will suddenly rise to ML stardom faster by being moved to and playing an unfamiliar positon such as 1B or OF? Even if that were true, would you really sacrifice an amazing talent at the 3B spot for 6 more months of ML time playing a so-so OF?