DocBauer

Well...at least the pitchforks are sharpened for farm work, eh boys?

FWIW, Duffey stated in an interview last season that his problem was lack of FB command and not lack of his change. Molitor or Allen, I believe but can't remember for sure, echoed the sentiment. Duffey has stated before that he has four pitches; a 4 seamer and a 2 seamer that have different movement and are thrown with slightly different speed, and 2 different curveballs, one softer thrown with the big break, and one thrown harder that has more of a slider/slurred action.

I think you're close Seth. The WBC has messed with preparation time for a few guys and that stinks to high heaven, but it is what it is. I'd also say Park over Vargas. Vargas is a bit of a favorite of mine, but he just hasn't been here and hasn't played much and still has an option now. Park has simply looked much better than last season and I think he sticks. Really big on Garver, but getting him playing daily to begin the season with Gimenez as the backup makes some sense. For now at least. Really, has any spot on the team improved more this season than catcher? I completely agree on Berrios or Mejia as the 5th starter. Vigelsong has shown nothing. There HAS to be room for one of the young starters. And I don't care which one, because the other will be up, and probably soon. There is going to be enough depth, enough options, that we don't have to play the "veteran placeholder" card for the 5th rotation spot. As long as Grossman is healthy, we have our 4 OF. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think DanSan is the 25th man. I really believe it comes down to him, Adrianza and Gonzalez. Adriana has the leather but not much else. To be fair, his mile numbers aren't bad and opportunity may have eluded him previously. Monitor seems to like Gonzalez, but he could sit at AAA for now. Santana is still young and athletic and Molitor seems to like him. I know we bash him, and rightly so at times, for his "ability" to play 6 positions...but...even playing them average to not so well is still different than tossing an OF in at 2B, or a 1B/DH in to the OF. And he has hit pretty well this far. I'm hoping Goodrum becomes what we hoped Santana would be, and soon, but I think the final spot still goes to DanSan.

I choose to look at May with a glass is half full approach. Very quickly, it would seem, we're going to have he, Melotakis and Rogers as LHRP options. As well as Chargois, Pressly, Reed, Hildenberger, Burdi,possibly Duffey, and a couple more who could make a push. Wow! I know it doesn't help the rotation, but pretty soon the pen and lineup are going to be well set and well stocked.

First, I am focusing on Jay, and not a 10 year history. Second, I would keep him in the rotation for this season to see what he could accomplish. Whether he would reach his potential as a starter or not we don't know. But the potential is there, and I think it's a mistake to move him this soon. But I don't buy in to any just argument. It was not a good draft when he came out and the Twins fried something a lot of us had complained about for some time: try the upside arm and stop with the safe choices! The new FO office thinks this is the smart choice? Fine. Run with it. I hope he rockets to the Twins and becomes a dominant LHRP. But while this news, the original draft position, etc, may be disappointing, just not going to call it a bust.

Just to be clear, I am not advocating a rebuild, nor am I stating Falvey or Levine are looking for one either. This team is already full in the midst of a rebuild with all the young talent currently on the roster. When I reference getting younger, I am referencing the rotation in particular vs additional 30yo veteran types. Thus, a healthy Hughes and Gibson, a couple young guys like Berrios and Mejia hopefully becoming established this season, I am arguing/contemplating running with one of many potential 5th starter options or possibly a trade for a top SP rather than the length and cost of a FA contract. I should have been more clear.

Just throwing this out there. To me, the following seems very possible and very realistic for 2017 and how the rotation looks when done: Hughes: I called him a dark horse all offseason and figured he'd begin the season on rehab. Well, he lost weight, is stretching out, still has his control, is working hard on his change, and has now been, reportedly, hitting low 90's. The extension doesn't matter at this point! What matters is being healthy, hitting 92 again...which seems to be an impending reality...and hopefully/possibly returning to his 2014 level. Gibson: High draft choice with quality milb career previously and post surgery. OK, a rough introduction in 2013 but not completely unexpected for any young pitcher, especially one perhaps wearing down later in the season. He was solid in 2014, even better in 2015 before an injury filled and terrible 2016. He's healthy, working on things, and looking pretty good thus far in ST. We're I a betting man, I'd weight Gibson's milb and ML success thus far vs his 2016 season and lay money he's a strong bounce back candidate. Santana and Santiago gone via trade or as a non-sign. Mejia looks good and maybe ready for a role. Soon if not now. Berrios is very young, talented, and proven himself at AAA. Finished product? No. But you almost have to believe both he and Mejia will end up with at least a half season with the Twins this year. Is this really that hard to see or expect? Is it really outlandish to see these 4 ready for 2018? That leaves 1 rotation spot to fill. Internally you would have the following possible candidates of various ranking and expectations/possibility: May, Duffey, Haley, Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart, Jorge and Slegers. Do you roll with these? Aren't we trying to get better and younger and build something? Do you include some of these guys, and others, and make a major 4 for 1 kind of deal for a starter? Or do you still look at a major 5 or 6 year deal for a FA starter?

IMO, the Twins are financially sound enough and viable enough to make that $20-25M splash once every few seasons. Now is an example with the finances coming off the books the next couple of seasons. Right now, it's looking like Hughes becoming a solid ML SP again is actually a possibility. Let's say the Gibson we are seeing this ST is a healthy and rebounding Gibson and not a mirage. Santiago and Santana both may be gone next seaaon or sometime later this season. Fast forward to 2018 and a couple guys like Berrios and Mejia have proven something in 2017 and the rotation might actually be just that one big arm away. But assuming those guys, Gonsalves, Jay, Jorge, Stewart and Romero don't all have themselves fine seasons and are on the brink, I'd almost rather put together a package and trade for a top starter. Probably more control and even a younger option than going the FA route.

I'd keep Grossman over Stubbs hands down. Barring injury, they don't need a true CF backup type. Stubbs could stick with AAA awaiting an opportunity. Agree Vogelsong just doesn't make any sense. We have every hit as good or better options for the pen, and Mejia has clearly out pitched him thus far. It's time to put a prospect in the rotation! If that's Mejia, then Berrios and Duffey can begin the season in Rochester. Vogelsong will have a similar option as Stubbs, pitch in AAA and await an opportunity.

Great article Seth! Thanks for all the news and updates! Can't wait for the milb season to start!

A really good day for Mejia in what has been a good spring overall. I know there has been a lot of consternation about Vogelsong winning the 5th spot, even as a temporary solution to give the prospects like Mejia, Berrios and even Duffey time in AAA. I really don't like that idea and hope there are more days like today to force the Twins thinking to give the final spot to one of the youngsters. That would still, potentially, leave 2 of them in AAA to call up later, along with others potentially. Anyone else impressed by the pen this spring?

Not sure I totally agree. Love the OF defense. Feel Castro and whoever his backup will ultimately be will be solid. The right half of the infield will be just fine. Left side? Mmmmm...could be OK. Not great, but OK.

I admit to not sitting down and doing research. And thusly, I am choosing to debate rather than argue, lol. But 66 PA is closer to 50 than a hundred. You also stated that Lawton moved around in the lineup, which would affect the total numbers vs a static lineup. Also, it is one season vs number of seasons for proper context. Puckett, for example, didn't always walk a lot, but as a #3 hitter, he was always 500+ AB and I believe he may have hit 600 once or twice?? I'm just saying, overall, being separated by 1 or 2 spots in the order, over an average season, I'm not sure you'd see a very large discrepancy in PA between the 1 and 3 holes in the order. As to your other question, I can see Buxton getting an audition for the leadoff spot, but of course, he also has to produce there to hold the spot. He shouldn't just automatically be given the spot if not ready. I have always believed in trying to stagger your lineup, as best as possible, for a mix of LH/RH, power vs speed vs hitting vs OB, etc, to "deepen" your lineup 1-9. So let me ask you this...as I stated previously, Buxton, in this scenario, is deserving of hitting leadoff due to his overall ability and skill set as an exciting player. Even if he did have 66 more PA than Dozier over an entire 162 game season, and we're not talking Nixon now, what would be more valuable? Dozier hitting 1st? Or Dozier with fewer PA, in theory, but with more dynamic players OB ahead of him to be moved along or driven in?

Sorry Willi, I understand the sentiment, but don't understand or agree with the arguement here. If Buxton hits leadoff, as the debate would seem to indicate, and Dozier hits 3rd, again as implied, then even if all else batters to begin the game fail to produce, all 3 would have made a PA. The only way I could see Buxton having more total PA than Dozier would be a number of games ending in the 9th inning with Buxton or the unnamed #2 hitter making the final out with Dozier on deck or in the hole. There is simply no way to correlate how many times this could potentially happen, but even over a 162 game schedule, with 9 lineup spots and 3 outs per inning, I simply can't see a large discrepancy of PA in Buxton's favor over Dozier. I guess I would have to add, if and when Buxton is deserving of the leadoff spot, wouldn't he be one of the teams best and most dangerous hitters? Again, I appreciate the sentiment, and there are a lot of ways to construct a lineup, I just don't see the arguement here.

I guess I'm also old school in this regard. Now, of course, it depends on who you have on your team. Speed with no OB isn't always that effective, unless your entire team is built on speed, contact, etc. If you don't have speed but rather a team built on hitting and power, you go the OB guy first, period. Buxton, as I have said before, could very easily be the guy who slides down to the 3 hole one of these days as the "best" overall hitter and perhaps most dynamic player on the team, driving them in and setting them up for hitters behind him. But for the foreseeable future, I really like he and Polanco in some combination of 1 & 2. Sometime in the very near future, both of these guys are going to hit their stride. As much as I love Polanco, Buxton will always be the more "dynamic" player due to his incredible speed and budding power potential. And, in time and based on past numbers, he will hit and provide OB. But Polanco has such a nice, we'll rounded game...potentially. he can hit, get OB, steal a few bases, take the extra base, leg out doubles and triples, and I believe he has the potential for double digit HR. So which combination is better? The dynamic Buxton leading off with the bat control and all around game of Polanco hitting behind him? (Remember, Polanco has rather extensive experience as a #3 hitter in the minors). Or Polanco and his all around game hitting ahead of the dynamic Buxton, providing scoring opportunities? Nobody ever said your #2 hitter HAS to be the "give it up and move runners over" type of hitter.

Nice post, and interesting. And I like your lineup and can't argue with it. Especially since I stated myself why Mauer/Grossman could be a nice fit there, lol. But I have never heard anything regarding the James theory regarding the #3 hitter. Not your best hitter but a power guy who strikes out a lot? Seems to fly in the face of everything I've ever seen, heard or personally believed. This would seem to indicate Sano hitting 3rd and Dozier 4th. Would you care to expound on this idea? I'd love to hear more!

I know it's only SSS, but I was impressed by what Gonsalves, Romero and Rosario accomplished in their short time, these are talented, young guys getting a small taste of ML life and competition, and instead of being intimidated or trying too hard, they just went out and performed well. I find Rosario's comments about relieving to be very interesting. Not sure the last time I've heard a young pitcher stating that he prefers relieving, unless he was a closer. Not a knock on the kid, just interesting. Boy oh boy, can you imagine over the next 12 months or so guys like Rogers, Melotakis and Rosario from the left side in the pen? (Mejia or Jay possibly joining them). Combine that with Pressly, Duffey, Hildenberger, Chargois, Reed and Burdi? (Maybe Wimmers and Baxendale). I find Slegers interesting. I'm not quite sure what to make of him. Despite his huge frame, he doesn't throw overly hard, though I'very also read his FB plays up because of his frame. Despite his huge frame, which usually screams poor mechanics, his WHIP has been solid, same with ERA, and he has held a 3-1 SO/BB ratio. At 24yo, is he still growing in to his body? Could maturity and even better mechanics add velocity? Is he a control pitcher big man with deception? Like I said, I find him interesting.

For those of us a bit longer in the tooth, you might recall Brian Downing batting lead for the Angels back in the 80's. He could hit, provided power, and gave the Halo's quality OB%. This would provide an arguement for Mauer to do the same for the Twins, though his obvious deterioration would limit power numbers, or so it would seem. And YES, Grossman could be a very similar option here, DH or OF here and there, when Mauer sat against LHP. It's really not a bad idea. I don't like Dozier there, though he can do it, simply because his overall ability, production and power seems to scream hitting lower to drive in and manufacture runs. I believe Buxton is the best and most dynamic choice, all things being equal. I have felt for a while now that he just might be a top of the order 1-2 hitter before sliding down to the #3 spot eventually as he aged a bit more, gained additional experience, and his power continued to develop. But I could easily him in the 9 hole to begin the season, lessen pressure, let him just play and let the game come to him more before moving up top. In an ideal situation...and it's not far fetched at all...the ideal situation would be Buxton or Polanco hitting first and the other hitting second. Which variation is better I don't know. Throughout their individual milb careers, each has been a top of the order hitter, though Polanco has invariably been dropped to the 3 hole on each of his team's the past few seasons as one of the best, most consistent and clutch hitters on his team. Either scenario offers very interesting combinations for these two. (And drops Mauer/Grossman to an OB%/hitting spot closer to the bottom third). I would continue to work Buxton at the top throughout ST. 1 or 2, he will eventually be there. But if the season started tomorrow, I'd probably bat Polanco 1.

This is incredibly bad news, not only for May of course, but for the Twins. I really hate to re-visit the past, but he lost real development time in 2015 with the inexcusable decision to move him instead of Pelfrey to the pen. One guy had 2 pitches and was struggling and would not be back with the team, and one had a better miss of pitches and upside. Huge blunder. Then May lost development time in 2016 for an even greater blunder. Now he misses all of 2017. I firmly believed two things: 1] May was going to be solid in the rotation, and get better as the season went along and he got more and more comfortable, establishing himself as a solid starter. (Though I did worry a bit about wearing down late in the season after his limited IP the past year and a half). 2] My expectations for May would make it all the much easier to move Santiago to allow for room for Berrios or Mejia at some point. What a massive, massive bummer. As to your other points, I think Santana will still be solid. (Though May's injury could halt any potential trade during the season now). I also believe Gibson will make a strong comeback. How strong, of course, is to be determined. I am also currently surprised by Hughes and fairly impressed FOR NOW by what he is doing. I honestly thought he was a dark horse before ST began and thought for sure he would begin the season in EST before a month of rehab assignments. Instead, he feels good, is throwing free and easy, working a lot on his change, and hitting low 90's. Many pitchers ramp up velocity, and IIRC, Hughes has usually been one of those guys. He's been getting ahead of hitters and throwing a good number of strikes. A few bombs or bad offering while working so hard on his change doesn't bother me FOR NOW. If there could be any sort of silver lining to the May's injury, it would be that it came early, and seems to be a "clean" injury, and could allow for a allow for a better/earlier/longer audition for young arms like Berrios or Mejia.

Feel awful for May. I think he was poised for a really solid year. Not be sparky, but about Berrios AND Mejia as someone else will invariably get hurt or not be ready?

For various reasons, the 3 guys in the OF every day, players actually playing the right position (Sano), the defense will be better this season despite questions about the left side of the infield. I am absolutely not sold on Kintzler as the closer and wonder how long he will keep the job, but I feel the bullpen will be much better this season, with some solid to excellent arms getting ready at Rochester. It still comes down to the starting Pitching though. I hate to use this as a source of optomism, but really, they could be bad and STILL be better than last season. IF...and it's still a mighty big IF...Hughes can regain his 92mph velocity and feel better about his change going forward, he is a huge boost. Santana is solid and sometimes excellent. Personally, I believe Gibson is going to rebound and surprise a bit. I like May and liked what I saw of him the other night. Now, if we can just get Berrios out there every 5th day.....

Harrison is still pretty young, fairly athletic and has real power potential. Sooner or later though, he has to produce a quality season again. I believe this is his make or break season. Goodrum is a guy I feel good about. He's one of those raw but "toolsy" players the Twins have loved drafting. It's taken a while to get his bat going and he has had some injuries, but he offers pop and speed and vast positional flexibility. I believe he has a pretty good shot to be what we had hoped DanSan would become. I just don't understand the handling of Wheeler at all. He was fast-tracked initially, added to the 40 man, then was removed after a poor season. Fine. Makes sense. But he pitched well last season and even went to the all star game. He may not throw very hard, but for a 100 loss team he couldn't have been added to the roster and given a shot as a back end SP in place of Albers or Dean? He's going to be passed up pretty quickly, in fact probably already has been, but last season would have been the perfect time to audition him for a role.

I missed part of the top of the first and didn't see the 2 runs score. What I saw after that left me pretty impressed by May. His velocity and control seemed pretty sharp. Threw a couple really nice breaking balls. Thought he got jobbed on a couple nice pitches. All in all, I was pleased by what I saw.

Personally, I believe Garver ranks ahead of Murphy in just about everyone's mind, IMO. By all reports, he's quality behind the plate and is definitely quality AT the plate. But with a pitching staff filled with questions, coming off injury and poor performance, I can see the initial thought being a veteran BACKUP catcher with experience and acumen while Garver gets to play almost every day for Rochester to begin the season. I want Garver on the team and have high hopes for him...but I get it.

I would also like to see Gonsalves begin the year with Rochester. It would seem he's proven himself at AA and ready for the challenge of Rochester. Plus, there is a bit of a crunch, potentially, for the Chattanooga rotation. Still, these guys are all young enough that I would be OK with Gonsalves at AA and Romero or Rosario at Ft Myers for the first month to get off to good starts, pun intended, and let a few things play out at each level above before some immediate promotions. I really like Mauer being at Chattanooga this season to follow the players he was managing last season. I like the familiarity and continuity aspect.