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jtkoupal

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Everything posted by jtkoupal

  1. jtkoupal
    Given everything that has gone wrong for the Twins this year, if they finish anywhere near .500, I think it has to be seen as a victory. It's hard to make the playoffs when: -your ace from a year ago misses 4 months, and is not the same pitcher upon return -Your starting shortstop and #3 hitter misses half of the year -Your 24 DRS Center Fielder plays in only 28 games -Your "generational team leader" has an OPS barely over .700 after 4 months. -3 of the Free Agents you sign are busts (at least LoMo hit well in May!) -Your All-Star third baseman lets himself go and has to get optioned to Single-A for a total reboot. -You let a washed-up relief pitcher get shelled every other outing
  2. jtkoupal
    Despite Ervin's great 2017, he greatly overperformed his 4.77 xFIP and 4.60 SIERA. He was destined for regression anyway. Factor in the surgery that has diminished his velocity, and here we have 2018 Ervin Santana. One thing is almost a guarantee... that Ervin Santana will NOT be back at his $14M option next season. He is probably not back at all. Quite truthfully, the Twins don't need him back.
  3. jtkoupal
    A bigger question... Why is Matt Belisle still on the active roster? He is 38 years old. He has a 7.71 ERA. His peripherals are better (5.30 FIP, 4.68 xFIP) however, even 4.68 was his ERA, he would (in theory) still be on the chopping block. I truly no longer buy the veteran leadership excuse. His job is to be a relief pitcher. His job is not to be Coach Matt. Eddie Guardado is the bullpen coach. Garvin Alston is the pitching coach. Their jobs are to be leaders and coaches. But that being said... why do Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney not count as veteran leaders? I can't speak to what they do for the clubhouse, but what does a 7.71 ERA do for the team? Bottom line... there is a lack of transparency here. There is a reason Matt Belisle is still a Twin. That reason is likely something that we will never know.
  4. jtkoupal
    Literally my motto! Last semester was the first semester in 2 years that I got all A's & B's!
  5. jtkoupal
    By your evaluation... The Twins get a 2.8 GPA (assuming all trades are of equal weight, 3 credit hours, per se) Escobar: B = 3 * 3 Credit Hours =9 Pressly: A= 4 * 3 Credit Hours =12 Duke: C= 2 * 3 Credit Hours =6 Lynn: 4 * 3 Credit Hours =12 Dozier: 1 * 3 Credit Hours =3 (9+12+6+12+3) / (15 Credit Hours) = 2.8 GPA
  6. jtkoupal
    Be careful who you pick up from Tampa at all, at least on offense.
  7. jtkoupal
    The Twins are going to be relevant in 2019. I'm not saying they will make the playoffs, but I believe a bounce back is likely.
  8. jtkoupal
    Logan Forsythe has been absolutely awful this year. However, he is only 1 year removed from being a serviceable player. Furthermore, he does own a career .796 OPS vs Left-Handed Pitching. The Twins could use that going forward if they chose. However, I don't see Forsythe being a Twin for very long, as I would anticipate Adrianza being favored to stay around above Forsythe. The roster probably isn't big enough for both of them in 2019.
  9. jtkoupal
    The Front Office almost certainly WANTS to trade Dozier. He has little value and few suitors. Dozier is my one of my favorite players ever, but I hope they could trade him for something, and then open up the infield spot for someone to get their feet wet. Either way, he isn't coming back in 2019.
  10. jtkoupal
    I was caught off guard by this trade. I knew teams were interested, but I thought the Twins would hang on since he is under control for another season. However, I was incorrect. I trust the front office did their homework. The Twins got two of the Astros' top 20 prospects, which is saying something given that the Astros organization is absolutely stacked from top to bottom. I hate to see them trade a viable bullpen arm for 2019, but I also can't fault them given the quality of the return.
  11. jtkoupal
    1. The Twins could still add pieces. They will not, however, be adding rentals. They are in no position to do that. There should be no objection to adding controllable pieces. In fact, there was a rumor just the other day from Darren Wolfson that the Twins had interest in Chris Archer. 2. The Indians, who improved their bullpen substantially, are a stronger team with a softer schedule the rest of the way. 3. A Sanó resurgence could adequately replace Escobar's production. Also, are Lynn and Odorizzi not replaceable? Both are capable pitchers and it would be more comfortable to have either rather than a kid, but it's not farfetched to think that a kid COULD be just as effective as either have been thus far. 4. The word was that the Twins would consider trading Gibson only if they were overwhelmed by the offer. That is the case with any player. Everyone has their price. If someone offers you $1.25 for $1, find me someone who doesn't take that. 5. I'm all for the fan spirit of making a run at Cleveland. Realistically, though, you can't afford to not sell high on Escobar when you are on the outside looking in. It's hard to say whether Escobar is/was in their future plans, but you have to be realistic about this year. You can't give a better team a head start and expect to make a run late. I'd of course love to see it, but realistically, given how inconsistent the team has been, you couldn't fault them for parting with expiring contracts for prospects.
  12. jtkoupal
    The electronic strike zone is a must. Umpires usually do a good job, but its ridiculous that veteran hitters get more breaks than rookies. Also, inconsistency behind the dish can be the difference in a game. The universal DH is an ABSOLUTE MUST!!! Watching a pitcher flail at three pitches is boring. Bunting is boring. Watching a pitcher (see Wainwright, Adam) and an expensive star pitcher at that, get injured because of offense will, sadly, be the straw that breaks the camel's back. The DH will be universal at some point. Also, it's not fair to either team to play sporadic interleague series and the World Series with different rules than normal. Baseball has enough quirks, it doesn't need the different rules one also. Expansion seems more likely than contraction. Maybe the MLB does an Eastern and Western conference? Who knows, but a realignment will be a fun change. Bottom line, tradition is not relevant. Progress is what matters. Appeal to tradition has held baseball back for too long and it's time to see some changes.
  13. jtkoupal
    The Twins went into the All-Star Break hanging on to a sliver of hope. That sliver is gone. What an utter disappointment this team was. Honestly. This team had potential, even with the injuries. I can't exactly put my finger on it without making generalizations. The roster that broke camp in March was better than the roster that played 9 extra innings in New York last October. Injuries have taken their toll, without question, but the subs (Cave, Escobar, Adrianza, etc.) have been acceptable. From the 6 major acquisitions from last offseason, the Twins get a 2.5/6. (1 for Rodney, 1 for Duke, 0.5 for Reed). Morrison, Lynn, & Odorizzi have been major disappointments thus far. Is it September yet? #Skol
  14. jtkoupal
    The pessimist in me says deal them all ASAP and get the kids up to prepare for next year. The optimist says to play on and hopefully ride this hot streak into August, when we play the Indians... A LOT!! If you get in a situation where you are 5 games back and play the 1st place team 8-10 more times, you have to give yourself a chance. Otherwise, bite the bullet. The Twins need to pick up at least a game, maybe even more, on the next road trip in order to stop the sale or postpone it to August. Escobar is the guy to try to keep, if possible. We need a third baseman for next year and the free agent market is grim. In-house options are limited, also. (Assuming Miguel Sanó is destined for 1B/DH) Dozier is gone. It doesn't make much sense to bring him back given the depth in the middle infield.
  15. jtkoupal
    I'm sure Adrianza will see more time than Petit and Motter. Especially Petit since he is no longer on the 40-man roster. Motter may be back, but he won't be used as more than a utility infielder I would imagine.
  16. jtkoupal
    It's happening
  17. jtkoupal
    If it doesn't involve Royce Lewis, do it.
  18. jtkoupal
    So you're saying there's a chance... Cleveland is looking a little cold right now. The Twins are playing some bad teams in the near future. Good chance to get on a roll. The Indians will add at the deadline, but unless it's Manny Machado, they could still be mortal.
  19. jtkoupal
    Eduardo Escobar for Shane Bieber. Who says no?
  20. jtkoupal
    Paul Molitor has had moments. Such as the end of 2017 as well as the striking improvement in 2015 from where they were. However, Paul has also been in charge of the 2016 team that lost 24 more games than the year before despite having largely the same group of players. Furthermore, he is failing with the best roster he has had in his tenure. There is no excuse for the Twins to be failing this miserably given the roster that they have. At season's end, Molitor might just be packing his bags.
  21. jtkoupal
    Really, though. The Twins need to take better at bats if they hope to accomplish anything. Making Lucas Giolito, whom entered play with an ERA in excess of 7, look like Cy Young is not the path to any success whatsoever, regardless of the outcome of the game. This offense won't let the Twins compete. Too many under-performances. However, hot streaks from Morrison, Dozier, Mauer, and Polanco would go a long way to a resurrection, and it may not be as farfetched as you might think. Unfortunately, anything good that might happen is likely to be too little, too late.
  22. jtkoupal
    This win shows me nothing. There is nothing to read into here other than we salvaged a game on the road against a bad, bad team. The Twins get to go to Wrigley Field & Miller Park next. Maybe we will see the team that has showed up against good teams this time! The Twins, with a 7% chance at a playoff spot and 5% chance to win the AL Central, have to squeak out 4 of these 6 to keep any hope alive, barring a collapse by Cleveland in the next week. Maybe I'm holding out hope, but there is always a chance!
  23. jtkoupal
    On a separate note: How long can you go with Matt Belisle? A reliever almost HAS to come off the 25-man when Mejia is added on Saturday. Mathematically and realistically speaking, it has to be either Belisle or Busenitz. Matt Magill is another option, but he has to be at the bottom of that list, given his mere competency thus far. I hate to send Busenitz down, as he needs his innings to develop further at this level. But Belisle can't go without losing him completely, and Falvine likes him. Perhaps the next two days will dictate that, given what the circumstances are on Friday afternoon.
  24. jtkoupal
    Gotta imagine the writing is now on the wall. This year isn't happening. I do expect the team to play better in the second half, but it's going to be too little, too late, as the Indians are beating up on the bad teams while the Twins are overlooking them. Per FiveThirtyEight, The Twins have a 5% chance of winning the AL Central. They have a 1% chance of making a Wild Card. They have also just dropped series to Texas and Chicago. If that isn't the writing on the wall, I don't know what is. It is crazy to think that the Twins were supposed to be an offensive Juggernaut. Their offense ranks #23!!!! of 30 teams. Losing your shortstop for 80 games, having to send your All-Star to Single-A, losing the only competent center fielder for most of the year thus far, and getting nothing from Logan Morrison & the Catcher position is just too much to overcome for 2 guys. The offense will heat up in the second half. Unfortunately, barring a total collapse on the part of the Indians, it's going to be too little, too late.
  25. jtkoupal
    Let's not forget that July 31 is not the last day to trade players. They can still do it in August if need be. However, there is really no sign that the offense is going to step up anytime soon. They have no solution at catcher, center field is going to be an adventure at the dish with or without Buxton. Dozier will heat up, but Morrison is having an oddly down year for himself. Kepler needs to heat up too. Mauer, Rosario, and Escobar are the only reliable weapons in the Twins offense right now. Who know what we will get out of Polanco when he comes back, also. There is a possibility that the Twins could look in a lot better shape by this time tomorrow. Cleveland is facing Jack Flaherty in St. Louis while the Twins are facing a washed-up James Shields and Lucas Giolito the next two days. It won't matter if they continue to play to their competition, but it is hardly out of the question that the race will look better in 26 hours.
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