jtkoupal

I definitely see the Twins taking at least 2 in this series. The Blue Jays present a challenge after that, but then 4 in Chicago could get us back on track too. My Projection: Twins go 6-4 in the next 10. I know you all are hoping for at least 7-3 to get back to .500, but baby steps, guys. A couple of cellar-dwellers will provide an opportunity to get the process back on track. We may drop a couple games, but I think 6-4 in the next 10 is a reasonable expectation to help get over the run the Twins are in.

At this point, there are no roster moves that are going to fix the Twins. They can play with the bullpen and a few odds and ends as they wish, but no roster move is going offer a real solution at this point. No prospects of significance are going to be called up until June 1, you know that. I don't know if anyone else has heard anything new on Ervin Santana. That could be a boost, but regression seems inevitable after an unsustainably hot 2017. The only real solution to the Twins' problems right now is for guys to step up. The bullpen is full of sever guys who have shown they can do it. Guys will start heating up. The rotation will improve. The offense will click at some point, there is too much talent there for it not to. Patience, my friends. Better days are coming. It has been a difficult April with weather, postponements, trips to San Juan, guys who had short spring trainings, etc. The rest of the season won't be like this. This is not 2016.

I didn't really care for the Fernando Rodney signing from day 1. The process hasn't been bad, and much of what's happened is not Rodney's fault. However, things such as Home Runs, HBP, and walks, are under his control. He can't control the play behind him, but he can control the other stuff. He has been victim to bad play, but he as also been responsible for walks, hit batters, and home runs, which he can control. The Twins look less and less likely to be contenders by the day, so Rodney's tenure in Minnesota will come to an abrupt end in about 3 months.

It won't happen until June 1 at the earliest, but I would like the idea of moving Hughes into the long relief role and calling up Romero to be the #5 starter. Hughes is a better option for long relief than Kinley, who is the odd man out in this scenario. Let's not forget, too, that Buxton will likely be back in the near future. This likely puts an end to Ryan LaMarre's stint in Minnesota. For now, Robbie Grossman and Logan Morrison are safe. Grossman can get on base and will start to heat up. Morrison is notoriously a slow starter, and I anticipate his bat will heat up. Let's also consider the lack of alternatives. And if you say "call up Kennys Vargas," well, just don't say it and it won't be an issue. Cool? Cool. In short, this is the transactions: GONE: Tyler Kinley CALL UP: Fernando Romero **Phil Huges to the bullpen** ACTIVATE: Byron Buxton OPTION: Ryan LaMarre

I just don't get it. Why does this one team, no matter the roster, always beat us. It's a little better at Target Field, but that's just it, A LITTLE. It's almost like there is some kind of psychological barrier against the Yankees that we just cannot win against them. The Yankees AAA team could all be called up and still probably beat our starters. I don't really believe in curses, but if one ever existed, it's us against the Yankees. The Twins futility in New York can practically be summed up by Murphy's Law, "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong." Last night, the only exception to this law was on the Escobar double that stayed in the park, which allowed Sano to score. Besides that, what are the odds of a "K-WP" and an E2 happening on back to back plays? Also, the HR by Sanchez is a flyout in many ballparks. In others, if not an out, maybe a double.

Terry Ryan is too cool for analytics

The problem with Molitor's lineups seem to be that he wants to keep everyone in their "designated spots." Why is Kepler batting 7th and Grossman 3rd? I don't know, maybe it's because Molitor wants to keep everyone where they usually hit... who knows. Hughes is not Falvine's fault. They have to do something with him. You can't keep a veteran in the minors, especially one with an 8-figure salary. Unless he's injured, you have to make room for him somewhere. The WC #2 spot is highly unlikely for the Twins given the top-heavy AL includes the Angels, Blue Jays, and whoever doesn't win the AL East between the Red Sox and Yankees. The best hope for the Twins is that Cleveland underperforms and they can catch them (which I DO believe is possible)

I put some of this series on Molitor. Not for all of it, certainly. But he had some head scratchers. Here is a quick summary: 1. Grossman batting 3rd AND Kepler batting 7th. 2. Grossman in RF with a fly ball pitcher on the mound. 3. Leaving Lynn in the game to start the 7th on Friday. (Too long of a hook for a guy who has shown a lot of inconsistency this year and was shaky that night. 4. Letting Moya try to get an important out to keep the game close. Besides that though. Let's look at each game individually and what they showed. Friday: Battled back, but lost on two flukey plays in the late innings (ball hitting the mound and pitcher missing the bag are two unlikely events that happened in the same game.) Saturday: Twins continue to take a dump against left-handed pitching. Gibson keeps it close, but mismanagement of the pitching staff helps the Rays blow it wide open. Sunday: Phil Hughes wastes more of his $13M+ salary that Terry Ryan thought was a good idea to hand him. (In fairness to TR, $13M per year is a bargain for a pitcher with the numbers Hughes had in 2014) Bottom line: Molitor needs to reflect on these games and improve. The offense is streaky, but I do expect them to get better. The back end of the rotation can be good for 18-21 batters, nothing more. The bullpen has some talent, but guys like Duke and Rodney are taking up spots that Duffey or Curtiss could occupy. Also, Hughes is probably a long reliever.

1. I can't understand why we suck so bad against lefties. We have the talent to hit lefties better than this... We had that problem last year too, which leads me to another major curiosity... 2. If hitting lefties was such a huge weakness, then why did we decide to bring Logan Morrison into town? He crushed righties last year, but was barely above league average (105 sOPS+) against lefties. Also, only 6 of his 38 homers were against lefties. That being said, those numbers are better than any other in-house options that were available (sorry, Kennys Vargas enthusiasts) to hit lefties. Just to clarify, Vargas did hit righties at a decent clip last year (115 sOPS+) but only a 62 sOPS+ vs lefties. That is all strictly inferior to Morrison, who will still heat up. 3. Kinley could still remain in our system if we worked out a trade, but I hear that they are waiting to find out if we are going to be offered Luke Bard back, at which time Kinley could be expendable. 4. I don't think last year's postseason run was a fluke by any means, but I also think that too many teams are powerhouses and we are just a rung below them. Returning to the postseason will be difficult this year. (Current playoff odds at 24.1% according to Fan Graphs)

"Pitchers are the best athletes on the field" "I'm conveniently going to Florida to work on my golf game when the Twins are in Detroit and Cleveland" "I hate objective methodology even though I wouldn't be in the Hall of Fame without it"

One would have to imagine that the pitchers will eventually sign somewhere. Or maybe their egos are so large that they don't think they need to take a lower salary. There will be injuries and other unforeseen events, so these guys will likely get scooped up eventually, but at what point do they need to accept what they can get just so they can pitch? Seems logical to me, then again, I'm not the one getting low-balled, so it's easy for me to say.

He almost certainly is gone barring a long-term injury to Morrison or Mauer in the near future. Vargas is only capable of hitting for power. He really cannot do anything else. Give him 500-600 PA, and he certainly may hit 25 bombs. However, his inability to get on base (.311 career OBP) and below average defense eliminates the possibility for additional value. Rooker is waiting in the wings and could be here in just a couple of years. Vargas may hit somewhere else, but I think it's pretty clear that that somewhere isn't here.

Mejia projects to be a 1.5 win player (Fangraphs) Gibson projects to be a 2 win player (Fangraphs) Lynn projects to be a 1.3 win player and had a disastrous 4.82 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season. Cobb projects to be a 1.7 win player, though was a 2.4 win player last season. That equates to, likely, 7 figures for the difference of probably 1 more win. Maybe 2 depending on who your fifth starter is without making a signing. Darvish projects to be a 3.6 win player. As for the playoff numbers, beware of the Central Limit Theorem. Good players, with enough repetitions, become good players. Average players become average players. Mediocre players become mediocre players. Kershaw has had some bad postseasons but you would still take him, wouldn't you??

Adding two starters suddenly creates a pretty good rotation of at least 4 solid starters. That can get you to the playoffs. However, Cobb or Lynn doesn't win you playoff games. In the playoffs, you're facing all-star or close to it staring pitchers almost every night. Cobb and Lynn combined wins games in conjunction with what the Twins have already, but come playoff time, Darvish can match up better against Verlander/McCullers/Cole/etc. This also allows Santana and Berrios some more favorable match-ups as well. Also, let's not forget that Gibson and Mejia are projected to be of similar value to Cobb and Lynn, respectively. Therefore, I believe it is logical to spend on one pitcher that pushes the needle instead of investing the same amount of two pitchers that barely push it. If this were the Pirates, I would say get the two cheaper pitchers. This situation for the Twins is different. If we want to win a Wild Card game against the Red Sox, Yankees, or Angles, Yu Darvish is better suited to start that game than Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Because of the Twins current situation, Yu Darvish must be the answer.

In a one run game, you want your best reliever on the mound in the ninth. However, the ninth inning lead is irrelevant if you give up the lead earlier in the game. If it's more than a one run game, a league-average reliever will suffice. The difference between an average reliever and an elite closer in a three-run game, at best, is one blown save a season. For a two run lead, the difference is two blown saves a year. So you certainly would rather have your relief ace in the ninth, but if the game is on the line earlier, it is much more logical to use him earlier. Glen Perkins said that back in 2011 when he was the 7th inning guy. He said he probably saved as many games in the 7th as the revolving door of crappy closers saved in the 9th. So while it's definitely nice to have a "proven closer," I agree with Brian Kenny, Keith Law, Bill James, and all the other "statheads" that there is a more logical approach.

While I think that the idea of a closer is outdated and the fact that saving your ace reliever for the 9th inning costs you games, the defined "closer" isn't going away just yet, especially for a manager like Paul Molitor who is more set in old-school thinking such as bunts, closers, etc. With that said, one has to imagine that Reed takes over as the closer for Rodney at some point during 2018. Rodney is on the wrong side of 40 and his projections scream "counterproductive sign." Reed is 29 and has closing experience. He has upside, Rodney is 41. Logic dictates the probability is great that Reed takes over Rodney's closer role. That being said, I believe that having Reed, the better pitcher (likely) NOT be the closer might be more productive. Utilizing the better pitcher when the game is on the line is likely to save more games than the closer saves in the 9th with a clean slate and often a multi-run lead. Rodney can manage with a 2 or 3 run lead. Reed is a better bet with the game on the line for real.

If Darvish cannot be obtained, which is highly likely, then I do not believe that stooping to Cobb or Lynn is the correct approach. On the surface, it sounds logical, why not add quality starting pitching for a more reasonable price than the big fish on the market? Well here's why: Cobb and Lynn are undoubtedly going to be overpaid by somebody this year. It's inevitable. Despite Lynn's good ERA of 3.43, his FIP was an almost-disasterous 4.82! Clearly, Lynn was the beneficiary of a lot of good luck, as his .244 BABIP would suggest. That contract has the potential to be a disaster for whoever decides to fork up the money. As for Cobb, the 2.91 K/BB is a concern, though his strikeout numbers are fairly low at just over 6 K/9, he averages more than 2 BB/9. Not disastrous, but the lack of strikeouts is undesirable. His 4.16 FIP shows the possibility for regression, though the risk is far lower than Lynn. Cobb has been considered a "almost perfectly league-average pitcher," which is not an insult. However, because it is so much easier to find below average pitching than above, it is likely that his price tag will still be much too high in relation to the value he would actually add to the team. To that end, Fangraphs, if you look into their numbers, predict the performances of Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia to be comparable to that of Lynn and Cobb. Yes, believe it or not, it is quite possible that the Twins could comparable production from those two unlikely sources for the cost of their contracts (Estimated value of $5.3M for Gibson after arbitration and league minimum $535K for Mejia) less than $6M, for similar production as opposed to, perhaps, upwards of $15M per year. Jake Arrieta would be a more impactful investment, but I met Kevin Slowey a couple of months ago and he said that he doesn't think that Arrieta would consider the Twins, given that he is a Boras client. He said that Darvish is more likely. Best bet, in my opinion: Plan A: Try to land Darvish or Arrieta Plan B: Try to find a taker for Miguel Sano (if anyone wants him amid the reports) and get a starting pitcher in return. Plan C: Ride it out with the kids we have coming up. As I said, the value for Gibson and Mejia may not end up being significantly different than that of Cobb or Lynn, so save the money, and roll with Berrios, Santana, Gibson, Mejia, and whoever wins the #5 job (Hughes may be the frontrunner if healthy)

That is a valid point. However, I do believe that that philosophy can be overrated. Especially considering that the starter often faces a pinch-hitter for the pitcher anyway. Furthermore, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, who were in Chatswood's division, did not need a DH to be offensive juggernauts, particularly the Dodgers. This is a concern for many NL free agent pitchers, however, I do not believe that it is always warranted. The pitchers typically adapt. I have little concern for the transition to the AL.

If the Twins stay true to who they are and don't make a big splash on a big name, I like Tyler Chatwood as a potential fit for this rotation. His numbers don't look good on paper, but let's not forget he pitched his home games in Coors Field. His road numbers are far better. His road ERA in 2017 was 3.49. Clearly, Coors Field inflated his ERA and deflated his chances at a big contract. Low-risk/high-reward signing for who could be a solid #3 starter behind Santana and Berrios.

Agreed. The new front office are not taking this trade lightly. They won't trade him just to trade him. They know what this team needs. I project this lineup will produce runs, but the state of the franchise relies on what stands on the pitcher's mound, both starters and relievers. Even without Dozier, the lineup may still be deep enough to produce some offense, but a boost to the starting staff could put this team over the top in the not-too-distant future.

Agreed, I was very happy to see Morneau accomplish that in 2014. However, the asterisk on that accomplishment is that he did that at Coors Field. Not to take away from his accomplishments by any means, but that would have been a tough feat to accomplish at Target Field.

Correct, what I meant was that it was an emotional farewell. While he wasn't the player he once was, he was an icon to this franchise and one of the most, if not the most, sentimental (from the fans' perspective) players of his era. Eventually, when Mauer moves on, I think it will be significantly less sad then when Morneau left. The loss of production wasn't crushing, it was crushing as in sad, that is what I meant by that.

Brian Dozier has been a fan-favorite for Twins fans since he started to break out in 2013. Every female in the Twin Cities has a crush on him, and in general, everyone respects the player that he is on the field and the person that he is off the field. For me personally, Brian Dozier has been my favorite player since Justin Morneau. Those two are my favorite Twins of all time, in some order (I was not around for Hrbek, Puckett, Killebrew, Carew, etc.) and I would hate to see him move on. Dozier is fresh off of a season in where he hit 42 home runs, which was good enough for a third place tie with Edwin Encarnacion and Khris Davis. However, it isn't just the 42 home runs that should capture one's eye, it should also be the 99 runs he drove in while hitting in just an average lineup. Furthermore, he finished 12th in the MLB in Slugging Percentage at .546, 20th in OPS at .886, and that has stayed healthy throughout his career while racking up Web Gems at second base. Far and away, Dozier is the best player on Minnesota's roster at the moment. However, the Twins must trade Brian Dozier. While his offensive production will be very difficult to replace with the players we own right now, it is also important to understand that Dozier is going into his age 30 season. At this age, it is worth questioning how many impact years he has left. He will undoubtedly be an effective player for several more years, but it is worth questioning whether he will put together many, if any, more years like this year or even the year prior. By no means can I predict the future, but it is certainly questionable whether Dozier will ever again amass 40+ bombs like he did in 2016, a question in which general managers around baseball are asking themselves as we speak. Dozier does certainly have more very good years left to play, but the real questions are "how good and how many?" After losing more than 100 games in 2016, it is clear that the Twins are still not that close to competing. Andy MacPhail would argue that "Progress isn't linear," and by no means is he wrong, however given the state of the pitching staff and some question marks on offense as well, it would be a stretch to consider the Twins to be a contender in the next couple of years. By the time the Twins would be legitimate contenders again, Brian Dozier will be well into his 30's and his production is very likely to diminish by that time. If he is moved now, the Twins would have two or three top prospects come their way that they could develop for when the team is ready to step back into contention. Also, it would give them a chance to see what Jorge Polanco is capable of now instead of letting him waste away on the bench until Dozier is eventually cleared later. Finally, and most importantly, Brian Dozier must be traded because his value is, quite possibly, the highest it is ever going to be. 2017 projects to be a good year for Dozier as well, and keeping him until sometime next season or next offseason could potentially pay off, but that also comes as a major risk. There is no guarantee of what level Dozier will be playing at next season. For all we know, he could tear his ACL in Spring Training. If we trade him now, we would acquire at least two prospects, quite possibly even a third, if rumors are true of the Dodgers willingness to add to their package. Of course, I recognize that teams do not always offer enough in return for a certain player. If nobody offers enough in return, then it is absolutely better to keep Dozier. But if there are top prospects involved in the discussion, then it is best for the franchise moving forward to ship Dozier and bring in some fresh new talent for the future. Watching star players and favorite players move on is painful to watch. This would be the most crushing trade since Justin Morneau was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 31, 2013. However, because of his age, his projected future production, and the current standing of the franchise, it is necessary for the Minnesota Twins, if offered a fair package, to trade Brian Dozier.

I understand that the 2015 Twins overachieved. However, there must be a reason for a team to go from a winning team to the worst team in the league with the same cast of characters in drastic and almost inexplicable. I completely believe that we should search for answers outside of our organization. Unfortunately, Pohlad has shown an affinity to do so. What you mentioned with Gardy can also be said for Terry Ryan, he stepped down for a while then retook the GM position. I am perfectly on board with searching for answers outside of the organization. However, this severe of a collapse is almost inexplicable. I'm not pinning anything on one person, but Ownership and General Management changes can produce the most change, along with the manager. Unfortunately, though, any further collapse could lead to players being shipped out too. Just saying. I agree with everything you said, but I don't see how the same cast of characters can go from a winning team with a bright future to a disaster that can hardly score a run much less win a game. It sometimes starts at the top, even more so in baseball.

I am certainly not giving up on Paul Molitor right now. Yes, the team has sucked all year long. But remember just last year when the Twins, led by rookie manager Paul Molitor, almost made the playoffs? One bad month is no reason to give up on a manager, especially after what he accomplished last year. Terry Ryan, however, is who I question. No, I do not believe that he is trying to sabotage the Twins, but I do believe that he is no longer competent for this job. I believe that the game is starting to pass him by. The problem, I do believe, is with ownership. I was at Target Field last weekend. I searched the playing surface far and wide, but other than Mr. Joseph Mauer, I could not find the money that I paid for my tickets or for all of the Twins merchandise I buy in a given year. Pohlad's comments, I think, were a sign of incompetence. If the Twins keep losing, players start getting traded. If Perkins comes back, ever, and pitches well, he's gone. Plouffe too, possibly even Dozier, if the offer is right.