jtkoupal

The day has finally arrived. It was announced that Trevor May will start Saturday night for the Twins against Jeff Samardzija and the Oakland Athletics at the Overstock.com Colosseum. When the move was announced Friday afternoon, fans in the Upper Midwest rejoiced in anticipation of seeing n important piece of the future take the field for the Twins. So with that being said, what can we realistically expect from May? What would satisfy us as fans? Of course, we would all like to see him burst onto the scene and become an ace right out of the gate. Unfortunately, that rarely happens to young pitchers who have just gotten called up to make their debuts. Of course it will probably not be smooth sailing for the rest of the year. What we can hope is that he is more successful in his first tastes of the show than Kyle Gibson was last year. In 10 starts last year, Gibson had an ERA of 6.53, a FIP of 5.17, a 1.75 WHIP, and a -0.8 pitchers WAR. Barring a demotion, which Gibson got last August, May should be in line to get about 8-10 starts himself. In 17 starts in Rochester this year, May owns a 2.93 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. What I like, though, is the 8.6 K/9, which is likely to be lower in the bigs, though, possibly about 7-7.5. In terms of how he will fare this year, it is never predictable. Some young pitchers burst onto the scene and blow away hitters like their in Double-A and others can't get anybody out. Add in the fact that FIP and xFIP, two of the best stats to predict future performance, are not calculated in the minor leagues and the ability to predict is even lower. What we have to do, though, is stay patient through his ups and downs the next couple of years. Calling up May is the right move. He needs to take the ball every fifth day for the remainder of the season. There is nothing to lose. This season is probably going to end in a last place finish and the way things are going, possibly another 90+ loss season. Even if he struggles, he needs to be with the big club along with a few of our other prospects. Houston is playing their future, even some players who aren't 100% ready, because they realize that there is nothing to lose and that they are a couple of years away from being serious contenders. We need to do the same. One concern I have with this move though is that I worry about exposing more top prospects to the culture in our dugout. We have seen so many prospects get called up and never live up to their potential, which after seeing so much of that, tells me that it's a problem with motivation, which comes from the coaching staff and management. I worry that May will be the next victim of that culture. However, in terms of what I project Trevor May to become in the future, I expect his 2015 to be similar to Kyle Gibson's 2014. I expect some hot and cold streaks. Maybe not as extreme as Gibson's, but they will happen. I would expect something along the lines of an ERA around 3.80, a WHIP around 1.30, and a FIP around 3.70 in 2015. Down the road, he has a very high ceiling. I project him to be a number 2 or 3 starter and hopefully participating in a few All-Star Games. To conclude, Go Twins, good luck to Trevor May, and have a great weekend to all of you users here at Twins Daily.

Is this confirmed? I hope so

I don't mind them keeping those two in AAA in order to prolong starting their service clocks. However, I think one of them, probably May, should get the call in September. Get his feet wet in games that don't really matter for us. If he blows up in a start, it's not a big deal. However, I really don't love the idea of more pitching prospects learning under Gardy and possibly Andy. I think a culture change is needed in the dugout that is more conducive to the development of young players, a skill that I think Gardy has lost over the years with times changing.

Chris Parmelee exceeded expectations in 2011 when he was called up in September. Clearly, that wasn't sustainable.

It's unlikely that everyone you mentioned will be released, especially the relievers. It's rare for that many effective players to be flat out cut

The day has to be coming, doesn't it? This is the 4th year in a row that could be heading toward 90+ losses. For most managers or coaches in any sport, 1 or 2 poor seasons spells the end of their days with that team. Ron Gardenhire, however, has managed to keep his job during a dark time when a change is necessary. To make matters worse, much of the coaching staff has stuck around as well. One of these days, a change has to happen. The root of the problem is a front office that is tethered to Gardy. If not sooner, Gardy should have been out the door when his contract was up after 2013. Of course, pathetic Pohlad's, St. Pete, and Terrry Ryan thought Gardy was "the right man to turn things around". The Front Office has almost a seemingly unhealthy relationship with Gardenhire. A relationship that, all things considered, comes across as a "friendship" and not a working relationship. As expected, the plan failed miserably and we are left with another coin toss on whether Gardy returns. How many former Twins need to make the All-Star Game to wake people up and make them realize that much of that falls back on the culture that Gardy creates. As with any business, from Professional a Baseball to Fast Food, the manager sets the tone. A lackadaisical manager like Gardy is going to produce a lackadaisical team like the Twins have been recently. Another problem with Gardy is is in-game decisions. He always leaves pitchers in the game a few batters too long. I could only imagine how many wins he would have if he were a more intelligent manager. We've given him new players, we've shaken up the coaching staff a little bit, and things have gotten worse instead of better. The managerial ineptitude is the only explanation for what we've seen the past 3 years. In my opinion, Gardy isn't a horrible manager. His problem is that he doesn't know how to get through to the young players. In his earlier years, he made the playoffs often with players developed under Tom Kelly (Morneau, Mauer, Cuddyer, etc.), but no that most of them are gone, he's left with a bunch of guys that are his responsibility. He hasn't found a way to motivate the young players. In my opinion, his problem is that he's too far in the Stone Age. He's too old-fashioned. The game has changed and he needs to realize that. You can't manage 25 year olds in 2014 like you could manage older veterans back in the day. The game is different and people are different. Gardy's loosing culture in the dugout is a reason why I support the Twins' decision to keep Meyer and May in Rochester. Calling them up now is setting these kids up for failure. Putting guys like Pino, Johnson and a few veterans in the rotation is fine by me until Gardy is gone. I quiver at the thought of our young pitching prospects being part of Gardy's unmotivating culture that has led to so many flops for our guys and success for everyone who leaves. Get Gardy out of there and call these kids up to play for Paul Molitor (or the 6-0 Terry Steinbach...just kidding). Paul Molitor has more leadership potential than Gardy. Gardy has his buddies (Matt Lecroy, his bowling buddy, who we kept over Big Papi) and often doesn't recognize the talent that's there. If there is one thing clear, it's that changes need to be made. These kids can't possibly amount to a World Series contender under a manager who boasts a career 6-21 record in the postseason, including being swept in the first round 3 times and only advancing past the ALDS once, in 2002 when we lost to the Angels 4-1 in the series, and never really so much as threatening a World Series appearance. He couldn't find a way to go deep into the postseason with 2 MVP's, a Cy Young, and a Gold Glove center fielder who could hit pretty darn well, too. Maybe Gardy will leave and be a World Series manager somewhere else, it would fit the ex-Twin mold, but there is no use for him in Minnesota. I've thought it's been time to move on for 6 years, but now, I know that we're well passed due. I'm not from Minnesota, but many of you are, and you all deserve better than this. If winning is of any interest to the Front Office, then Gardy's a Goner. If he stays, then it shows that this is not about winning, it's about some secret agenda that we will never figure out.

He's not walking people because he gets behind everyone and then throws a meatball in the wheelhouse. Don't be fooled by lack of walks, control is his biggest problem.

Who are you? Gardy? Terry Ryan? Please tell me you're being sarcastic. The last 3 years have ended miserably. Based on what I'm seeing, this year will be no different. I don't have to use my imagination to see another 90 loss season.

I think it's convenient that Nolasco admitted injury AFTER Gardy thought about sending him to the bullpen. Gardy should have sent him to the pen long ago, in my opinion. Had he done that, I'll bet we know about this "injury" long ago.

I don't want him to fail. I don't want any of our guys to fail. However, I know that Deduno is not meant to be a full time starter. The role he is in now, a long reliever, is the correct role for him. I was at the game Saturday when he pitched 4.2 shutout innings out of the pen. That outing confirmed to me that he belongs in the bullpen.

Thanks for the article. I wouldn't read too much into putting Parmelee in center. It was for offensive purposes only. Clearly, Parm has no future in center except for a rare appearance there to get his bat in the lineup or to take Sam Fuld's bat out of the lineup. As for the next couple of weeks, I don't see them being pretty. We face some tough teams such as Kansas City, the Yanks, and Justin Morneau's Rockies (who are tough to contain at Coors Field). With the Twins likely to fall out (not to sound pessimistic or trolling), they need to look to shop guys like Willingham, Morales (if anyone wants him, would be selling low), Suzuki (several teams would want him), Correia (also selling low, but need to give prospects that spot) and possibly even Burton (also selling low), Duensing, or Anthony Swarzak. In addition, I think the Twins need to bring up some of next year's prospects and get their feet wet.

I like Mauer and all, but I don't see him getting much better. He's stepped it up a bit lately, but clearly his best days are behind him. I don't care either what he has done in the past, I care about what he can do now. Clearly, he does not have it like he used to. If they cut Mauer and Put Parmelee and eventually Vargas at 1st, you would hear no objection from me.

I like Polanco as a prospect. I know that he's not ready for the big leagues. I know that Hrbek skipped AA and AAA and did just fine, but this will not be the case for Polanco. He will be optioned back soon, possibly even when Plouffe is activated, as he needs at-bats and Florimon, who has no future, does not. I don't like this move because this is service time. They are wasting his service time, a valuable thing for small-mid market teams. The sooner he runs though his service time, the sooner he will leave. It would not have taken much to add Bernier to the active roster. For all I care, Pino could have been DFA'd. I don't think that this was the right move.

I remember in 2011 when we put Mauer in right for 1 game in an emergent situation. Outside of that, I have not seen him take reps in the outfield, so I couldn't tell you what he's like out there. I wouldn't expect him to be particularly good, but I could be wrong. Clearly, Willingham is not returning, he may not even be on our team 5 weeks from now, opening a vacancy in left. By next year, Sano will be up most likely, which could displace Plouffe. I don't mind Plouffe as a LF option or a 1B option, but I don't see Gardy moving Mauer around again. Sano and Vargas are 2 players, though, that I see as DH's. They are not destined for greatness in the field, but they may be at the plate, meaning that one must have a position. I like Plouffe as an OF option over Mauer, though. By this time next year, we will have a jam of infielders with Mauer, Vargas, Plouffe, and Sano. We could move one to the outfield, but then what happens to Rosario? This logjam of INF's could spell a trade of Plouffe, though I think he is one of the more valuable pieces of our lineup.

I too have gotten over Burton. He is much too inconsistent. He has good stuff, but he is too hit-or-miss. I agree that there are a handful of guys in AAA Rochester who deserve a roster spot more than Jared does.

I believe Perkins will represent us. Hughes might depending on when he makes his last start before the break. Dozier will not make it, as the 2B competition is too stiff and he is not as good as Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler, or Altuve. Suzuki could make it with Wieters out for the year, but it's real tough to say. Mauer will not be an all star this year, he has no purpose in the game despite the fact that it's in Minnesota.

Willingham and Suzuki to Baltimore MIGHT be able to convince them to trade Dylan Bundy to us.

Interesting that you mention Hughes. I have put thought into this possibility, but I don't see it happening. He has been our best pitcher, which maybe gives us all the more reason to deal him. But Terry Ryan has a history of reluctance at the deadline, so don't count on it. As for Willingham, I made a post yesterday of teams that may have interest in him. I believe that there are seveal teams that would like to have him, but not at a high price, as he has missed a lot of time due to injury. As for Kurt, I also see Texas as a good fit, as he would be an upgrade from Chirinos and Giminez. Suzuki should be traded, but again, Terry Ryan has not been very active recently and Gardy seems to have a "man thing" for Kurt, so I would not count on it. Morales would not garner much of anything unless he stars to run into some homers soon, as that is his game.

5 days ago, Kyle Gibson pitched the Twins passed the Tigers to tighten the gap to only 3 games. Since, the team has endured an ugly, gut-wrenching 5 game losing streak to fall to 6 games under .500, 6.5 games back in the central, and 5 games back in the Wild Card. What this losing streak showed, especially the 3 game sweep in Boston, was that the Twins are probably done after being relevant for the better part of the first half. With this drop in the standings means in the need to sell off some pieces, something that the Twins have been reluctant to do over the years. Among the names of guys that should be traded is Josh Willingham. Since returning to the lineup, Josh has played like the Josh Willingham of 2012, driving in runs in key situations and driving the ball out of the ballpark. This resurgence of Willingham has pumped some value into him. Barring a complete collapse at the plate, Willingham will be wanted by someone. Below are a list of teams that could have interest in the Twins' slugger and why: Baltimore Orioles: David Lough and Delmon Young have both seen time in Left Field this season. That position has been very unproductive for Baltimore, as Lough is hitting .182 and Young, while the batting average is very good, has only 3 home runs and 10 RBI in 35 games. Willingham would add a clutch bat with power at a position of desperate need for Baltimore. Oakland Athletics: This is not a terrible likely landing spot, as the A's have stability in LF, but it wouldn't hurt for them to have another bat in the lineup as a DH, a position where everyone plays here and there for Oakland. Texas Rangers: Texas has a chance to make a run, but I think that they could use a bat. They are set in the outfield with Choo, Martin, and Rios, but they don't have much of anything outside of their positional starters. With Fielder out for they year and Moreland on the shelf, they could use a thumper to play DH, something that they don't have. Guys like Donnie Murphy, Michael Choice, and Brad Snyder are not going to cut it, Willingham will be a nice offensive upgrade for Texas, especially in that ballpark. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers don't have a crisis in left field, as Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke are both hitting in the .260's, but the addition of Willingham would give them a power upgrade and drive in more runs for a good price for the Dodgers. He would make their lineup much more formidable. Of course, I don't expect the Twins to get a harvest in return for Willingham, but the way I see it is that if he leaves in free agency, he goes for nothing. He has missed too much time to garner compensation as well.

As every single user of Twins Daily is aware, the Twins are in a state of despair in nearly every facet baseball. Over the next several weeks, I will be posting steps that need to be taken in order to fix the Minnesota Twins. Had I started 3 weeks ago, rule number one would have obviously been starting pitching. Recently, however, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes have both been inked to multi-year deals and another starter could be on the way as early as Thursday or Friday. With Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, and a possible 4th quality starter in the mix, the rotation appears to be solid if not strong in the near future. Anyway, time to get to the point. I would like to start my "Rules For Fixing the Minnesota Twins". Rule number 1 for fixing the Minnesota Twins is to keep Oswaldo Arica in the lineup consistently. There has been recent speculation on a possible trade involving Arcia because of the myriad of outfielders that the Twins have in the system currently. As far as I am concerned, any deal that involves Arcia is a mistake. The Twins need power in the lineup, a guy with as much raw power as Arcia is hard to find. While Arcia certainly has some plate discipline and pitch selection issues to work out, he showed some very advanced hitting skills for such a young kid last season. Arcia Analysis Positive: A. Abundant raw power B. Ability to drive the ball C. Young and full of potential D. Very good low-ball hitter Negative: A. Too many swings and misses (though the whole team is that way) B. Trouble with breaking pitches C. Impatient D. Can not hit high fastballs, only low balls E. Sucker for breaking pitches low in the zone that break out of the zone, much like Cuddyer was. Stay tuned, as I will have another rule within the next few days.

He could be a nice fit for Minnesota. However, chances are that Terry Ryan will not even inquire on Wieters. The Twins are clearly looking for a catcher to fill the void left by Joe Mauer, but it looks like Josmil Pinto is the guy. In the short term, the Twins are looking for a veteran guy to come in, fill a temporary gap, mentor Pinto, and then leave when Pinto is ready. Wieters is going to garner interest, Baltimore will likely ask for pitching in return, something that the Twins do not have a whole lot of to offer. While I do believe Wieters would fit in nicely in Minnesota, I would not hold my breath on him being a Twin in the near future.

For the past 15 years, calling the Minnesota Twins middle infield a "revolving door" would be an understatement. However, the Twins currently possess a rising star at second base as well as a top prospect who will most likely be ready to compete in 2015. In the near future, the Twins are going to have to make a decision regarding the 2nd base position for the future. The question that Twins fans everywhere are asking is, "will it be Dozier or Rosario?" It will be an interesting decision that will be made. I will share my thoughts below. First off, the Twins front office must look at the potential of both. There are two ways of looking at this. One way is that you keep the one with more potential. The other way is to trade the one with more potential because he will bring back more in return. In my opinion, I think Dozier is the guy to keep. While Rosario has more upside with the bat, his defense is rather suspect and he has little power. Brian Dozier played like a Gold Glove caliber 2nd Baseman this year and showed plenty of power, especially after May 31. Eddie Rosario looks to have a lot of tools, however, Dozier is much better on defense and has much more power. Rosario is destined to be a lead off hitter, he is more powerful than Ben Revere, but he will almost definitely not hit 20 home runs like Dozier probably will. Rosario could garner more return, so I believe that he should be the trade candidate. Another option is to move Dozier back to shortstop and get rid of Florimon. I do not see it happening, but it sounds nice. No matter what, the front office will make a decision. Hopefully, they make a good one.

These stats can be flukey with not much sample size. However, it is clear that Butera is a better catcher than anyone else that we have had recently. The point that you mentioned about Butera warranting a decent prospect in return is interesting. If we were to trade Doumit, we would get very little unless we sweetened the deal. To a point, I agree with your claim that teams are overlooking a catcher's hitting attributes and looking at their defense/game management. Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are two very good examples. However, St. Louis has the best catcher in baseball, offensively and defensively, and they are in the World Series.

I appreciate the time and thought that you put into this. Whether your intentions were to provoke laughter or to say something constructive, it was well written. Unfortunately, we all know that Cano is either going back to New York (most likely) or to the Dodgers. We do have the money to lure him in NOW! However, what happens when our young players reach arbitration and we are stuck with Cano and Mauer making up more than half of our payroll. That would be a mess, we cannot have over $50MM locked up in 2 guys, it's not practical. I understand and appreciate your effort, though it is really a moot argument given Terry Ryan's history (or lack thereof) of offseason spending. There is no way Cano is in Twins blue and red next year. As for the Dozier argument, your argument is certainly valid, we only saw 3 months of him at shortstop in 2012. He made way too many errors, tough he also made some very good plays as well. The only thing is, Florimon has much more range and instincts at short, so a small market team will give the defensive wizard the playing time. Many of Dozier's errors were mental, and I'm sure he could be better if he went back to shortstop, but the fact is that Dozier played Gold Glove caliber defense at 2B this year, and if their projections are correct, his peak will not be that much worse than Cano. Cano will put up better numbers, most likely, but why splurge on Cano when you can have Dozier for a much more reasonable cost and similar production. On a side note, however, the Twins will have plenty of cash to spend this winter. With only about $60MM in commitments next year, we have plenty of flexibility. We need a starter (or 2, or 3), that is where a majority of the money will need to go. A first baseman will be needed as well. There are rumors of a possible Justin Morneau return (more than just possible from the sounds of it), which will derail the Parmelee/Colabello train (woot! woot!) Any way, maybe you will be right and Cano will head north to the Minny (don't count on it). Go Twins!!