Hosken Bombo Disco

Back on June 11, the Minnesota Twins were defeated by the Boston Red Sox 15-4, giving up 10 runs over the final two innings to let an otherwise close game get out of reach.
 
It wasn’t just another loss in another losing season. It was noteworthy because it gave fans their first look at J. T. Chargois, a highly-touted, hard-throwing pitching prospect from the 2012 draft. Chargois is one of many collegiate relief pitchers the Twins have been stockpiling with high picks in the amateur draft over the past several years, and became the first of these picks to make his major league debut.
 
Twins manager Paul Molitor said before the game that he would look for a low-pressure situation in which to ease Chargois into his role. It made sense. Chargois was coming off of two lost seasons to elbow surgery and had pitched on back to back days only once in 2016 to that point. The late innings of a lopsided game seemed like a good spot to give him his first appearance. Any runs Chargois might surrender would have little impact on the final result. And surrender them he did—he faced eight batters, six reached base, and he was charged with 5 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
 
And just as quickly as he had been called up to the majors, Chargois was immediately optioned back to AAA after the game.
 
Introduction
 
Chargois was drafted in 2012 out of Rice University with the 72nd overall pick, one of five college relievers selected among the Twins’ first eight picks that year. The Twins then drafted heavily again in this way in 2014. Obtaining more college relievers with high velocity and expectations of much quicker promotions was welcome news for many Twins fans, who were enduring a string of losing seasons in which their team would finish near the bottom in many pitching categories. The 2014 season was one in which division rival Kansas City was building a pennant winner around its overpowering, upper-90s-throwing bullpen arms. Twins used the 42nd overall pick in June 2014 on Nick Burdi, a relief pitcher from Louisville who could reach 100 mph on the radar gun.
 
But the 2014 draft was two years ago, and the 2012 draft was four years ago already. The Twins bullpen in 2016 is still relying on softer-throwing minor league signings made during the offseason. Where have all the college relievers gone?
 
From reading the discussion boards at Twins Daily this season, I noticed others asking this same question. TwinsDaily writer Seth Stohs had an article back in December on the long list of college relief pitchers the Twins have drafted over the past decade. Other than that, references were scarce; I couldn’t find much (or didn't conduct the right searches) about how college relief pitchers became major league relief pitchers. Are the Twins promoting their relief prospects too slowly? That was my main question, but I had some other questions too. I decided to frame the questions as an academic type of study. I wanted answers with Chargois and Burdi in mind, two guys who were selected with second round picks and have been indisputably developed for the purpose of becoming major league relief pitchers.
 
The natural response to the question of whether the Twins are promoting these pitchers too slowly is: They are promoted when they are promoted. Hard to argue with that explanation, but for many people, it’s not good enough.
 
I wanted to compare how other organizations promote pitchers with profiles similar to Chargois and Burdi through their minor league systems. My intent was not to perform any sophisticated statistical analyses or conclusively answer any big philosophical questions, nor do I consider roster issues, or a pitcher’s velocity or pitch repertoire, or any qualitative information that might affect a player’s progress or a team’s evaluation of it. I just wanted to dig up some data, present it, and see if it was saying anything.
 
I settled on three hypotheses or questions I wanted to test. First, that the Twins have drafted more of these types of pitchers than most other organizations; second, that the Twins promote these pitchers more slowly than other organizations; and third, that it makes no difference to their careers when these pitchers make their first major league appearance, whether it be a critical situation or low leverage.
 
Also, I believed that there are more efficient ways to obtain strong bullpen arms than targeting them in the amateur draft, but I chose not to address this last question. A good rundown of the best relievers the Twins have developed over the years is here, and they are not primarily relief pitchers drafted from college.
 
On the initial three hypotheses, I found the answers mixed. But I did discover a couple of things that surprised me.
 
Methods
 
In order to arrive objectively at a set of pitchers to examine, I established some rules. First, I would define what a college relief pitcher is. Then I would set some conditions for which pitchers from the draft were eligible for inclusion into the sample, and finally, I would need to decide on how to measure the promotions of these pitchers once they were in a team's minor league system.
 
Above all, I was interested in success stories. Again, I was targeting players who were drafted as college relievers, who pitched in relief in the minors, and who eventually reached the major leagues as relievers for the team that drafted them. I wanted to know what characteristics these ballplayers had in common, and if Chargois, Burdi and other Twins relief pitchers shared those characteristics.
 
Defining a college relief pitcher. I didn’t want starting pitchers in the group. During his college career, J.T. Chargois appeared in 47 games as a pitcher and started only 2 of them. (Note: I would use the Baseball Cube for retrieving college stats, and then verify these stats against other sources when possible.) I was comfortable calling Chargois a college relief pitcher. Other times it was less clear. Logan Darnell appeared in 43 games—strictly in relief—in his first two seasons at Kentucky. In his third and final season, he made 11 starts. Was Darnell a college reliever? Did the Twins consider him one? I wasn’t sure.
 
After browsing through the records of many former college pitchers who were selected in the draft, I settled on the following rules. A college relief pitcher would be someone who:
pitched in relief in a majority of games his final college season; or, pitched in relief in a majority of all college pitching appearances; and
pitched fewer than 200 innings total as a college pitcher.
There is nothing special about these rules; I thought they simply made sense for what I wanted to look at. Unfortunately those rules created a couple of odd exclusions, including Chance Ruffin, who was the closer for the Texas Longhorns during the 2010 NCAA season but who made 28 starts in his two prior seasons at Texas, exceeding the innings limit. Also disqualified as a relief pitcher here was Madison Boer, who the Twins drafted at the end of the 2nd round in 2011 but who also barely exceeded the innings limit (according to Baseball Cube). It's also not impossible that a pitcher or two in this study might have been unintentionally mis-categorized, but if so, it was without bias.
 
Eligibility for sample. Having defined a college reliever, I then decided I would only look at picks in the first and second rounds, including compensation picks. This would include Chargois and Burdi in my set (but not Darnell, who in 2010 was a sixth round pick).
 
I settled on the drafts from the years 2004-2012, however. This meant I would have Chargois, but not Burdi, who was drafted in 2014. I decided that for any players drafted 2013 or later, their teams wouldn’t have the benefit of development time. Though this endpoint excludes Burdi, I will bring him into the discussion later. I had also supposed that Chargois, a mid-second round pick in 2012, might be the final pitcher in the set chronologically, but my first surprise was that there was a college relief pitcher drafted later than Chargois in the second round who has been in the major leagues for several seasons now.
 
The 2004 draft was my other endpoint, or beginning point, because in my initial browsing, I discovered that Huston Street was part of that draft, and he is an example of the successful type of college pitcher I imagine the Twins are hoping to develop with these picks. I also liked the 2004 draft for the irrational reasons that it was the first draft held following the publication of Michael Lewis's Moneyball, it was the draft of Glen Perkins, and also the draft of Matt Bush, the first overall pick that year, selected as a shortstop but now pitching effectively in relief with the Texas Rangers. (Perkins and Bush are not otherwise part of this study.)
 
As I was finishing this project, I became aware that in 2002 the Twins drafted Jesse Crain in the 2nd round with the 61st overall pick. Crain then debuted for the Twins two seasons later. Crain would have qualified for this list had I broadened the year range back to 2002. But by that time, I did not want to expand the set of pitchers based on this selected piece of information. However, like Burdi, I will bring Crain into the discussion at various points of interest.
 
How to measure the speed of promotions? I thought it would be reasonable and convenient to use innings pitched to measure a pitcher’s time spent at each minor league level. Innings pitched has the advantage of familiarity over other measures like batters faced, game appearances, or even calendar days spent at a level. I would track the number of innings pitched up until the pitcher's major league debut.
 
I also began with the intention of tracking minor league performance, such as strikeout and walk rates, but as I went on, I felt less of a need for this. Sample sizes are too small for this exercise, and my own judgment about performance would be too uninformed and subjective. Here is an example. An argument could be made that Nick Burdi, compared with his stats in college, struggled with control (a higher BB/9) at his first minor league assignment in A ball at Cedar Rapids. Indeed, I believe the Twins even stated this. However, Huston Street, with the Oakland organization, also struggled with control in this same way (with a higher BB/9) at his first minor league assignment. I began the study wanting to measure performance, but when I considered things like park bias, and sample size, I decided it was not significant. Huston Street pitched only 2 innings in AAA, after all. Whatever his walk or strikeout rate in AAA, it wouldn't be as significant to me as the number of innings he pitched. I reasoned that Oakland would not have promoted Street after a mere 2 innings in AAA if they did not feel he was ready.
 
In the end, I was comfortable bypassing statistics altogether and using the promotion itself as the main indicator for satisfactory performance.
 
I did not account for innings pitched in exhibitions, minor league postseasons, or independent leagues. Only innings pitched in the affiliated minor leagues were part of this study; in other words, the innings pitched total you would see if you checked MiLB.com.
 
Likewise, other than Chargois, I had very little information on injuries for these pitchers, and I simply used their presence in games as an indicator of health.
 
The College Reliever Search
 
Using the criteria above, I found a total of 50 college relief pitchers drafted in the first or second round from the years 2004 to 2012.
 
Have the Twins drafted more college relief pitchers than other organizations? This was my first hypothesis, and from this pool of relievers, I would conclude yes. From this set of 50, the Twins drafted five college relief pitchers within the first two rounds between 2004 and 2012. The Dodgers also drafted five. The Diamondbacks and the Cardinals each drafted four, and no other team accounts for more than three such pitchers.
 
However, I determined that 27 of these 50 relief pitchers were converted to starters early in their minor league careers, or were given enough starts to cast doubt on whether they were drafted with the strict intent of becoming major league relief pitchers. For example, Mason Melotakis, drafted in the 2nd round of 2012, met the conditions of a college relief pitcher, but he made 18 starts in A ball to begin the 2013 season. Carlos Gutierrez, drafted in 2008, had a similar profile as a potential starter. Starting games in the minor leagues made Melotakis, Gutierrez and the others distinct enough from Chargois and Burdi that I excluded them from my set.
 
Removing those 27 converted starters from the original set of 50, and removing four others who did not sign a contract (including Josh Fields, who is actually counted twice in the set of 50 as he was drafted in consecutive years), I arrived at a set of 19 college relievers who were drafted in the first two rounds and then used almost exclusively as relief pitchers in the minors.
 
The Twins drafted 3 of these 19 players to become relievers exclusively, while no other team drafted more than two. Setting aside Melotakis and Gutierrez, here are the three Twins pitchers who would make up part of this group of 19 (Table 1):
 
Table 1: College relief pitchers drafted by the Twins between 2004-2012 in the first or second round, who were developed exclusively as relief pitchers in the minor leagues


 
Because I was only interested in college relievers who have reached the majors with their original teams, I sorted these 19 relief pitchers into even smaller sets: three who were traded to another organization while still in the minors, including Bullock (and also Josh Fields again, who I will mention later); three who retired or were released by their original clubs before making it to the majors; and two who are still in the minors with their original clubs, including Luke Bard. That left 11 left over. The remaining 11 pitchers were the ones I was looking for—college relief pitchers who made it to the major leagues as relievers with the club that originally drafted them.
 
These were the guys who again, like Chargois and Burdi, were selected with high draft picks, developed through the minors almost exclusively as relief pitchers, and made their debuts with the teams that drafted them.
 
Table 2 introduces these 11 pitchers, listed chronologically by year drafted and draft position: Bill Bray (drafted as a Montreal Expo), Huston Street, Craig Hansen, Joey Devine, Chris Perez, Eddie Kunz, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Drew Storen, J. T. Chargois, and Paco Rodriguez.
 
Table 2: College relief pitchers drafted between 2004-2012 in the first or second round, who were developed exclusively as relief pitchers in the minor leagues, and who debuted in the major leagues as relief pitchers for the teams that drafted them


 
By collecting data from this set of 11 relief pitchers, I could now look at innings pitched to test my second and main hypothesis, about whether the Twins are promoting college relief prospects more slowly than other organizations. I got my answer, but found that the question was a little more complicated than that.
 
Before collecting this data, however, I wanted to get a sense of how well these pitchers have performed in MLB. A couple of these pitchers are well known, while a few of them I had not heard of or had forgotten about. Table 3 lists these same pitchers, tracking the pitcher by age and the fWAR accumulated in the majors at that age, through the end of the 2015 season:
 
Table 3: Age of relief pitchers per season, and accumulated fWAR for that season


 
There are some problems with using fWAR and dividing by seasons played to put a value on a player, but I was only looking for approximations. Additionally, when evaluated this way, I found these pitchers could be put into three natural groupings: a very good group, an above average group, and a below average group.
 
The following data re-sorted and displayed in a bar graph (Figure 1) will illustrate these three groupings better. The top and bottom of each grey bar represent the highest and lowest season fWAR for each pitcher. The black line near the middle of each bar represents the pitcher’s career average fWAR. The league average fWAR for a relief pitcher is 0.16, indicated by a dashed line.
 
Figure 1: Relief pitcher high and low season fWAR, represented as a bar graph, relievers sorted by general effectiveness


 
The first three bars in order are Huston Street, Drew Storen, and Chris Perez. These three make up what I considered the very good group. The next three bars are the above average group of Paco Rodriguez, Joey Devine, and Bill Bray. The last group of bars includes Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Eddie Kunz, Craig Hansen, and J. T. Chargois.
 
The pitchers will be sorted in this order in all of the bar graphs to follow.
 
I put Chris Perez with the first group based on his career saves total, and because Perez’s fWAR was hurt by his final two seasons. bWAR treats Perez much better than fWAR. Perhaps Perez would fit better in the middle group, but I chose to include him in the top group. Perez also was named to two All Star games.
 
You can also see Jesse Crain’s performance in this graph. The first bar represents his seasons with the Twins, which would fit neatly with the above average group of relievers. Crain’s second, taller bar represents his full career, including his final three seasons with the White Sox.
 
Results and Discussion
 
My second hypothesis was that college relief pitchers in the Twins system were promoted more slowly, as measured by innings pitched, than the pitchers in the other organizations. Note that this innings pitched data is not intended to differentiate across seasons, only minor league levels.
 
For each of the 11 relief pitchers in the final set, Table 4 lists the number of innings each pitched at each minor league level prior to their major league debuts:
 
Table 4: Relief pitchers, innings pitched per minor league level


 
Below is the same information presented in bar graph format (Figure 2). Already, one or two things start to stand out.
 
Figure 2: Relief pitchers, innings pitched per minor league level, represented as bar graphs


 
The first thing that stood out to me is the tallness of the bar representing Chargois. Chargois pitched more minor league innings prior to his debut than all but Perez.
 
Another clear bit of data that stood out is the number of innings Chargois pitched in rookie league, which I generally thought to be for players coming out of high school. All six of the very good and above average relief pitchers skipped the rookie level. At first, I thought that the Twins not having a short season A- team might have narrowed a choice of assignment to either rookie level or A level, but each of the top three relievers pitched in organizations with a short season A- level team, yet were assigned directly to A level.
 
However, looking at Chargois and the top three relievers, what also stands out is a pattern of promotions those pitchers were given through the minors. Each of the top three of Street, Storen and Perez began their careers at A ball, pitched at AA, and then at AAA. Storen also made a stop at the high A+ level. Each of the top three spent their longest minor league assignment, measured by innings pitched, at AA. On its face, it looks significant to me that this progression of promotions is shared among the top three relievers, and I find it encouraging that Chargois also followed this progression. What’s more, none of the other seven relievers in the set shows this progression in just this way. On the contrary, the promotion patterns of the others seem haphazard in comparison.
 
The most common characteristic shared among all the pitchers is pitching at the AA level. Ten of the eleven pitchers in this set pitched in AA prior to their major league debuts. The top three were then promoted to AAA and promoted to the majors from there. However, six of the other seven were promoted to the majors from AA.
 
Nine of the 11 pitchers prior to their debuts, including Chargois, pitched their highest number of innings in AA. Perhaps these organizations see AA as the most important level for these pitching prospects.
 
But for how long did these other pitchers stay in MLB after their debuts? Here is a chart with an additional bar to represent major league innings pitched following each pitcher’s debut:
 
Figure 3: Relief pitchers, length of first stay in major leagues, represented as a bar graph


 
Again, Chargois stands apart from this group in a few respects. His initial stay in the majors was very brief and fits more with the bottom of the group or relievers than the top group.
 
The table below shows the number of major league game appearances and innings pitched for each pitcher following their initial call up (Table 5):
 
Table 5: Relief pitchers, number of game appearances and innings pitched following MLB debut


 
The best three pitchers had three of the four longest stints in the major leagues. Street was with the team from Opening Day, and Storen and Perez were each called up in the middle of May. Bill Bray was called up in June and then traded in July. Paco Rodriguez was a September call up, then broke camp with the Dodgers the following spring. Only Joey Devine was demoted shortly after his first call up.
 
Leverage of First Appearances
 
Does the leverage index of a debut appearance make a difference?
 
I decided to look at the leverage index of the first three major league appearances of each reliever (Table 6). Approximately, low leverage is a number under 0.85, medium leverage is between 0.85 and 2.00, and high leverage is anything higher than 2.00:
 
Table 6: Relief pitchers, leverage index (LI) of first three major league appearances following first call up


 
Most of the relievers did indeed debut in low leverage situations, if not quite blowout losses as Chargois did. In fact, Huston Street’s first three appearances were also fairly late in blowout games (one win, two losses).
 
The big difference between Street and Chargois is that Street eventually took over the closer role later in his rookie season, something Chargois seems unlikely to do.
 
The highest leverage debut appearance came from Joey Devine, who entered a game in the top of the 12th inning for the Braves. Devine’s appearance was rated a leverage of 2.31. Devine was one of Bobby Cox’s last options from a bullpen that appears to have been depleted from the previous couple of games. Devine pitched a scoreless top of the 12th, struck out trying to lay down a bunt with two strikes in the bottom of the 12th, then got into trouble in the top of the 13th before surrendering a grand slam and taking the loss.
 
Meanwhile, Bill Bray was credited with a win in his debut appearance—without facing a batter. Pitching for the Nationals and manager Frank Robinson, Bray entered a game in Milwaukee in the bottom of the 8th inning with a runner on first and two outs, his team trailing by a run. He was brought in to face the rookie Prince Fielder, but the baserunner was caught stealing after the first pitch, ending the inning. The Nationals scored two runs in the top of the 9th and another pitcher replaced Bray to record a save. Bray got the win. The baserunner who was thrown out? Corey Koskie, in his final major league season.
 
Jesse Crain's MLB debut in August 2004 was in a 0.51 leverage situation, trailing by five runs in the 4th inning versus the Angels. Gardy pulled no punches with Crain’s next two appearances, however, with leverage indexes of 2.85 and 3.41 each, one of those being an extra-inning appearance.
 
As far as leverage is concerned, I am not sure there is enough information—here or anywhere, perhaps—to determine whether a debut appearance in a high leverage situation will impact a career negatively. Introducing a relief pitcher into a low leverage situation wouldn’t seem to hurt, however.
 
Other Pitchers
 
In the following bar graph are the innings pitched of some additional pitchers, including Twins, who were not part of the original set of 11. Each of these pitchers were also relief pitchers in college and developed as relief pitchers in the minors:
 
Figure 4: Relief pitchers, innings pitched in minor leagues, represented as a bar graph


 
The first three remain Street, Storen, and Perez. The next two pitchers, separated by extra space in the middle, are Chargois and Nick Burdi. Chargois’s stats are through his debut in June, while Burdi’s stats are through the end of 2015, before his 2016 season began.
 
The next group of six pitchers is made up of Twins. In order, from left: Billy Bullock, Luke Bard, Zack Jones, Jake Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, and Jesse Crain. The stats for Crain are up through his major league debut in 2004. The stats for the other five Twins pitchers run through the end of the 2015 season and do not include 2016.
 
The final bar at the far right is Josh Fields, who was just traded from Houston to the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is now his fourth professional organization. Briefly on Josh Fields: Fields was among the 19 relievers in the sample above who were college relievers and pitched almost exclusively in relief in the minors. Seattle drafted Fields with the 20th overall pick in 2008, and notice how they assigned him directly to AA, skipping the lower levels completely. After seeing the progression of promotions from the top three relievers, it’s not hard to imagine how Fields might have struggled in that first long minor league assignment, facing a quality of competition he was not yet suited for, and then having trouble catching up and meeting expectations from that point forward.
 
The second tallest bar, next to Fields, is Jesse Crain. You can see how the Twins promoted Crain comparatively slowly, but also according to the progression of minor league levels, without skipping a level. Crain spent the longest time in AAA, rather than AA.
 
Notes on other Twins college relief pitchers here include:
Billy Bullock, drafted in 2009, in the 2nd round with the 70th pick. Bullock was traded to Atlanta during spring training of 2011 after 107.2 minor league innings with the Twins. Bullock pitched in AAA for a couple of seasons and then was suspended in December 2012, effectively ending his career;
Luke Bard (2012), 1st round with the 42nd pick. Bard has been hit with significant injuries which perhaps prolonged his stay in A ball, but is currently healthy and pitching in high A;
Zack Jones (2012), 4th round, 130th overall. Looking at his stat line, Jones seemed to pitch well and even improve on his college numbers in 3 ½ seasons in the Twins system. Jones was then taken in the Rule 5 draft by Milwaukee in December 2015, but returned to the Twins in June. He is pitching in AA;
Jake Reed (2014), 5th round, 140th overall. Reed would not have made my original set, for pitching too many innings in college. Reed sputtered when promoted to AA in 2015, but is performing very close to his college numbers in AA now in 2016;
Trevor Hildenberger, 2014 draft, 22nd round, 650th overall. Successful late round picks are fun stories, and Hildenberger is finally getting some attention this season. Like the others in this study, he was a college reliever who was developed as a reliever in the minors. Like the other Twins, he has progressed through every level, and was promoted comparatively slowly to Street, Storen and Perez, which I attribute partly to his low draft selection and lower expectations. Hildenberger has dominated at AA this season;
Mason Melotakis. I did not include Melotakis in the bar graph above, because the games he pitched as a starter in 2013 would distort his innings compared with the others. He was drafted in 2012, 2nd round, 63rd overall. He has been promoted on the same schedule as the others, with stops at every minor league level, including rookie. Melotakis is also currently pitching in AA;
Pat Light. Light was drafted 37th overall in the 2012 draft. He was a starter in college and in the low minors, but has pitched exclusively as a reliever since being assigned to AA to begin 2015. At AA he has pitched 29.2 innings in 21 appearances, and at AAA he has pitched 64 innings in 51 appearances. He debuted with Boston on April 26 of this season and had two appearances before being demoted back to AAA;
Alan Busenitz. Busenitz was college relief pitcher drafted in the 25th round of the 2013 draft. He has pitched 254 innings in the minor leagues, mostly in relief.
All of which leads us to Nick Burdi.
 
On the surface, it looks as though Burdi and Chargois are being promoted on the same schedule as the other Twins college relief prospects. Here is the comparison of Burdi’s minor league innings through 2015 with the innings pitched by Street, Storen, Perez, Chargois, and Crain prior to their major league debuts:
 
Figure 5: Relief pitchers, comparison


 
Again, Street and Storen were promoted fairly quickly, while Perez and the three Twins were promoted less quickly, or even slowly, in comparison. Chargois and Crain pitched 75.2 and 85.2 innings apiece through the AA level prior to their debuts. Similarly, Burdi reached 84 innings through AA through the end of 2015 (not counting Burdi’s innings during Chattanooga’s 2015 postseason run).
 
Notice how Burdi skipped rookie ball and was assigned directly to A ball in 2014. As we’ve seen, for the Twins this is unusual. Remember too that Burdi struggled in the first half of 2015. After 30.1 innings in AA he was demoted back to A+ for a short time. Burdi then pitched 20 more innings in A+ before his promotion back to AA.
 
Now suppose that Burdi, instead of struggling in those first AA appearances, had pitched very well. Suppose he pitched well enough that instead of being demoted at the end of June, the Twins instead promoted him to AAA, and he pitched in AAA until the end of the Rochester season. Here’s how the graph might look under these new innings totals (FIG 6):
 
Figure 6: Relief pitchers, comparison alternative


 
This alternative promotion schedule is similar to Storen’s, especially through the end of AA. If the 33.1 innings pitched by Burdi after his demotion had all been credited to AAA instead of the lower levels, the AA to AAA innings ratio would have resembled Crain’s prior to Crain’s debut. It is not a stretch of the imagination to think that Burdi would have been considered for a September call-up last season had his season gone differently.
 
Wrapping up
 
Looking only at this small set of 11 pitchers, one can conclude that what is most important to the major league success of these pitchers is not the speed of their promotions, but instead is the logical progression of promotions the pitcher takes through the minor leagues. The pitching prospect is drafted and assigned to a minor league team, after which point the pitcher advances level by level, without skipping more than one level at a time, until AA is reached. A college relief pitcher on a successful development plan can skip the rookie level, but will not skip the AA level. At AA, the pitcher may be asked to pitch more innings than at any previous level. AA is then followed by a stop in AAA, which is followed by the pitcher’s MLB debut. The soundness of this progression is even more evident when looking at the major league careers of the college relief pitchers in this study who did not follow the progression (Figure 2). It’s true that better data and a larger sample of pitchers might alter how this conclusion currently looks, but for now I am standing behind it.
 
Unfortunately for this study, the relative slowness with which the Twins promote their relief prospects means that their success will not be apparent for a while. The quick promotion of Paco Rodriguez, selected 10 picks later than Chargois in 2012, does suggest that a late second round pick would not need to be promoted slowly out of fear of hurting the pitcher’s career. The Dodgers had already gotten more than three seasons and 1.2 fWAR from Rodriguez before trading him away during his age 24 season. With the slower timelines the Twins prefer, the Twins figure to miss out on the early value a college relief pitcher might present.
 
Only after I finished with the above data did I hunt for pitchers with similar profiles who fell outside of my set. This is when I discovered Jesse Crain, drafted in 2002. There are pitchers such as Jake Barrett in Arizona (2012, 3rd round) and Tony Zych in Seattle (2011, 4th round) who were taken a bit later in the draft and spent a great deal more time in the minors than Chargois, but there are also pitchers like Joe Smith (2006, 3rd round), who was promoted rapidly by the Mets and debuted in MLB with only 32.2 minor league innings behind him.
 
A similar, better study of minor league promotions would widen the sample of pitchers, and would also improve on the definition of college reliever as used here.
 
For now, it's reasonable to think that the Twins still expect a few of these relievers in their system to become valuable major league contributors. I would also conclude that most of these relievers have been promoted responsibly, if a little slowly. But again, too slowly? It's hard to know for sure. Chargois could probably have been called up by now. Once Burdi becomes healthy, the Twins will probably ask him to pitch more minor league innings than he really needs. And aside from Chargois and Burdi, there is still an abundance of young pitching prospects in the Twins system waiting for their chance. Perhaps half of the AA Chattanooga bullpen is made up of former college relief pitchers who could stand to use a promotion, but not to the majors yet—to AAA.

Back on June 11, the Minnesota Twins were defeated by the Boston Red Sox 15-4, giving up 10 runs over the final two innings to let an otherwise close game get out of reach.
 
It wasn’t just another loss in another losing season. It was noteworthy because it gave fans their first look at J. T. Chargois, a highly-touted, hard-throwing pitching prospect from the 2012 draft. Chargois is one of many collegiate relief pitchers the Twins have been stockpiling with high picks in the amateur draft over the past several years, and became the first of these picks to make his major league debut.
 
Twins manager Paul Molitor said before the game that he would look for a low-pressure situation in which to ease Chargois into his role. It made sense. Chargois was coming off of two lost seasons to elbow surgery and had pitched on back to back days only once in 2016 to that point. The late innings of a lopsided game seemed like a good spot to give him his first appearance. Any runs Chargois might surrender would have little impact on the final result. And surrender them he did—he faced eight batters, six reached base, and he was charged with 5 runs in 2/3 of an inning.
 
And just as quickly as he had been called up to the majors, Chargois was immediately optioned back to AAA after the game.
 
Introduction
 
Chargois was drafted in 2012 out of Rice University with the 72nd overall pick, one of five college relievers selected among the Twins’ first eight picks that year. The Twins then drafted heavily again in this way in 2014. Obtaining more college relievers with high velocity and expectations of much quicker promotions was welcome news for many Twins fans, who were enduring a string of losing seasons in which their team would finish near the bottom in many pitching categories. The 2014 season was one in which division rival Kansas City was building a pennant winner around its overpowering, upper-90s-throwing bullpen arms. Twins used the 42nd overall pick in June 2014 on Nick Burdi, a relief pitcher from Louisville who could reach 100 mph on the radar gun.
 
But the 2014 draft was two years ago, and the 2012 draft was four years ago already. The Twins bullpen in 2016 is still relying on softer-throwing minor league signings made during the offseason. Where have all the college relievers gone?
 
From reading the discussion boards at Twins Daily this season, I noticed others asking this same question. TwinsDaily writer Seth Stohs had an article back in December on the long list of college relief pitchers the Twins have drafted over the past decade. Other than that, references were scarce; I couldn’t find much (or didn't conduct the right searches) about how college relief pitchers became major league relief pitchers. Are the Twins promoting their relief prospects too slowly? That was my main question, but I had some other questions too. I decided to frame the questions as an academic type of study. I wanted answers with Chargois and Burdi in mind, two guys who were selected with second round picks and have been indisputably developed for the purpose of becoming major league relief pitchers.
 
The natural response to the question of whether the Twins are promoting these pitchers too slowly is: They are promoted when they are promoted. Hard to argue with that explanation, but for many people, it’s not good enough.
 
I wanted to compare how other organizations promote pitchers with profiles similar to Chargois and Burdi through their minor league systems. My intent was not to perform any sophisticated statistical analyses or conclusively answer any big philosophical questions, nor do I consider roster issues, or a pitcher’s velocity or pitch repertoire, or any qualitative information that might affect a player’s progress or a team’s evaluation of it. I just wanted to dig up some data, present it, and see if it was saying anything.
 
I settled on three hypotheses or questions I wanted to test. First, that the Twins have drafted more of these types of pitchers than most other organizations; second, that the Twins promote these pitchers more slowly than other organizations; and third, that it makes no difference to their careers when these pitchers make their first major league appearance, whether it be a critical situation or low leverage.
 
Also, I believed that there are more efficient ways to obtain strong bullpen arms than targeting them in the amateur draft, but I chose not to address this last question. A good rundown of the best relievers the Twins have developed over the years is here, and they are not primarily relief pitchers drafted from college.
 
On the initial three hypotheses, I found the answers mixed. But I did discover a couple of things that surprised me.
 
Methods
 
In order to arrive objectively at a set of pitchers to examine, I established some rules. First, I would define what a college relief pitcher is. Then I would set some conditions for which pitchers from the draft were eligible for inclusion into the sample, and finally, I would need to decide on how to measure the promotions of these pitchers once they were in a team's minor league system.
 
Above all, I was interested in success stories. Again, I was targeting players who were drafted as college relievers, who pitched in relief in the minors, and who eventually reached the major leagues as relievers for the team that drafted them. I wanted to know what characteristics these ballplayers had in common, and if Chargois, Burdi and other Twins relief pitchers shared those characteristics.
 
Defining a college relief pitcher. I didn’t want starting pitchers in the group. During his college career, J.T. Chargois appeared in 47 games as a pitcher and started only 2 of them. (Note: I would use the Baseball Cube for retrieving college stats, and then verify these stats against other sources when possible.) I was comfortable calling Chargois a college relief pitcher. Other times it was less clear. Logan Darnell appeared in 43 games—strictly in relief—in his first two seasons at Kentucky. In his third and final season, he made 11 starts. Was Darnell a college reliever? Did the Twins consider him one? I wasn’t sure.
 
After browsing through the records of many former college pitchers who were selected in the draft, I settled on the following rules. A college relief pitcher would be someone who:
pitched in relief in a majority of games his final college season; or, pitched in relief in a majority of all college pitching appearances; and
pitched fewer than 200 innings total as a college pitcher.
There is nothing special about these rules; I thought they simply made sense for what I wanted to look at. Unfortunately those rules created a couple of odd exclusions, including Chance Ruffin, who was the closer for the Texas Longhorns during the 2010 NCAA season but who made 28 starts in his two prior seasons at Texas, exceeding the innings limit. Also disqualified as a relief pitcher here was Madison Boer, who the Twins drafted at the end of the 2nd round in 2011 but who also barely exceeded the innings limit (according to Baseball Cube). It's also not impossible that a pitcher or two in this study might have been unintentionally mis-categorized, but if so, it was without bias.
 
Eligibility for sample. Having defined a college reliever, I then decided I would only look at picks in the first and second rounds, including compensation picks. This would include Chargois and Burdi in my set (but not Darnell, who in 2010 was a sixth round pick).
 
I settled on the drafts from the years 2004-2012, however. This meant I would have Chargois, but not Burdi, who was drafted in 2014. I decided that for any players drafted 2013 or later, their teams wouldn’t have the benefit of development time. Though this endpoint excludes Burdi, I will bring him into the discussion later. I had also supposed that Chargois, a mid-second round pick in 2012, might be the final pitcher in the set chronologically, but my first surprise was that there was a college relief pitcher drafted later than Chargois in the second round who has been in the major leagues for several seasons now.
 
The 2004 draft was my other endpoint, or beginning point, because in my initial browsing, I discovered that Huston Street was part of that draft, and he is an example of the successful type of college pitcher I imagine the Twins are hoping to develop with these picks. I also liked the 2004 draft for the irrational reasons that it was the first draft held following the publication of Michael Lewis's Moneyball, it was the draft of Glen Perkins, and also the draft of Matt Bush, the first overall pick that year, selected as a shortstop but now pitching effectively in relief with the Texas Rangers. (Perkins and Bush are not otherwise part of this study.)
 
As I was finishing this project, I became aware that in 2002 the Twins drafted Jesse Crain in the 2nd round with the 61st overall pick. Crain then debuted for the Twins two seasons later. Crain would have qualified for this list had I broadened the year range back to 2002. But by that time, I did not want to expand the set of pitchers based on this selected piece of information. However, like Burdi, I will bring Crain into the discussion at various points of interest.
 
How to measure the speed of promotions? I thought it would be reasonable and convenient to use innings pitched to measure a pitcher’s time spent at each minor league level. Innings pitched has the advantage of familiarity over other measures like batters faced, game appearances, or even calendar days spent at a level. I would track the number of innings pitched up until the pitcher's major league debut.
 
I also began with the intention of tracking minor league performance, such as strikeout and walk rates, but as I went on, I felt less of a need for this. Sample sizes are too small for this exercise, and my own judgment about performance would be too uninformed and subjective. Here is an example. An argument could be made that Nick Burdi, compared with his stats in college, struggled with control (a higher BB/9) at his first minor league assignment in A ball at Cedar Rapids. Indeed, I believe the Twins even stated this. However, Huston Street, with the Oakland organization, also struggled with control in this same way (with a higher BB/9) at his first minor league assignment. I began the study wanting to measure performance, but when I considered things like park bias, and sample size, I decided it was not significant. Huston Street pitched only 2 innings in AAA, after all. Whatever his walk or strikeout rate in AAA, it wouldn't be as significant to me as the number of innings he pitched. I reasoned that Oakland would not have promoted Street after a mere 2 innings in AAA if they did not feel he was ready.
 
In the end, I was comfortable bypassing statistics altogether and using the promotion itself as the main indicator for satisfactory performance.
 
I did not account for innings pitched in exhibitions, minor league postseasons, or independent leagues. Only innings pitched in the affiliated minor leagues were part of this study; in other words, the innings pitched total you would see if you checked MiLB.com.
 
Likewise, other than Chargois, I had very little information on injuries for these pitchers, and I simply used their presence in games as an indicator of health.
 
The College Reliever Search
 
Using the criteria above, I found a total of 50 college relief pitchers drafted in the first or second round from the years 2004 to 2012.
 
Have the Twins drafted more college relief pitchers than other organizations? This was my first hypothesis, and from this pool of relievers, I would conclude yes. From this set of 50, the Twins drafted five college relief pitchers within the first two rounds between 2004 and 2012. The Dodgers also drafted five. The Diamondbacks and the Cardinals each drafted four, and no other team accounts for more than three such pitchers.
 
However, I determined that 27 of these 50 relief pitchers were converted to starters early in their minor league careers, or were given enough starts to cast doubt on whether they were drafted with the strict intent of becoming major league relief pitchers. For example, Mason Melotakis, drafted in the 2nd round of 2012, met the conditions of a college relief pitcher, but he made 18 starts in A ball to begin the 2013 season. Carlos Gutierrez, drafted in 2008, had a similar profile as a potential starter. Starting games in the minor leagues made Melotakis, Gutierrez and the others distinct enough from Chargois and Burdi that I excluded them from my set.
 
Removing those 27 converted starters from the original set of 50, and removing four others who did not sign a contract (including Josh Fields, who is actually counted twice in the set of 50 as he was drafted in consecutive years), I arrived at a set of 19 college relievers who were drafted in the first two rounds and then used almost exclusively as relief pitchers in the minors.
 
The Twins drafted 3 of these 19 players to become relievers exclusively, while no other team drafted more than two. Setting aside Melotakis and Gutierrez, here are the three Twins pitchers who would make up part of this group of 19 (Table 1):
 
Table 1: College relief pitchers drafted by the Twins between 2004-2012 in the first or second round, who were developed exclusively as relief pitchers in the minor leagues


 
Because I was only interested in college relievers who have reached the majors with their original teams, I sorted these 19 relief pitchers into even smaller sets: three who were traded to another organization while still in the minors, including Bullock (and also Josh Fields again, who I will mention later); three who retired or were released by their original clubs before making it to the majors; and two who are still in the minors with their original clubs, including Luke Bard. That left 11 left over. The remaining 11 pitchers were the ones I was looking for—college relief pitchers who made it to the major leagues as relievers with the club that originally drafted them.
 
These were the guys who again, like Chargois and Burdi, were selected with high draft picks, developed through the minors almost exclusively as relief pitchers, and made their debuts with the teams that drafted them.
 
Table 2 introduces these 11 pitchers, listed chronologically by year drafted and draft position: Bill Bray (drafted as a Montreal Expo), Huston Street, Craig Hansen, Joey Devine, Chris Perez, Eddie Kunz, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Drew Storen, J. T. Chargois, and Paco Rodriguez.
 
Table 2: College relief pitchers drafted between 2004-2012 in the first or second round, who were developed exclusively as relief pitchers in the minor leagues, and who debuted in the major leagues as relief pitchers for the teams that drafted them


 
By collecting data from this set of 11 relief pitchers, I could now look at innings pitched to test my second and main hypothesis, about whether the Twins are promoting college relief prospects more slowly than other organizations. I got my answer, but found that the question was a little more complicated than that.
 
Before collecting this data, however, I wanted to get a sense of how well these pitchers have performed in MLB. A couple of these pitchers are well known, while a few of them I had not heard of or had forgotten about. Table 3 lists these same pitchers, tracking the pitcher by age and the fWAR accumulated in the majors at that age, through the end of the 2015 season:
 
Table 3: Age of relief pitchers per season, and accumulated fWAR for that season


 
There are some problems with using fWAR and dividing by seasons played to put a value on a player, but I was only looking for approximations. Additionally, when evaluated this way, I found these pitchers could be put into three natural groupings: a very good group, an above average group, and a below average group.
 
The following data re-sorted and displayed in a bar graph (Figure 1) will illustrate these three groupings better. The top and bottom of each grey bar represent the highest and lowest season fWAR for each pitcher. The black line near the middle of each bar represents the pitcher’s career average fWAR. The league average fWAR for a relief pitcher is 0.16, indicated by a dashed line.
 
Figure 1: Relief pitcher high and low season fWAR, represented as a bar graph, relievers sorted by general effectiveness


 
The first three bars in order are Huston Street, Drew Storen, and Chris Perez. These three make up what I considered the very good group. The next three bars are the above average group of Paco Rodriguez, Joey Devine, and Bill Bray. The last group of bars includes Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Eddie Kunz, Craig Hansen, and J. T. Chargois.
 
The pitchers will be sorted in this order in all of the bar graphs to follow.
 
I put Chris Perez with the first group based on his career saves total, and because Perez’s fWAR was hurt by his final two seasons. bWAR treats Perez much better than fWAR. Perhaps Perez would fit better in the middle group, but I chose to include him in the top group. Perez also was named to two All Star games.
 
You can also see Jesse Crain’s performance in this graph. The first bar represents his seasons with the Twins, which would fit neatly with the above average group of relievers. Crain’s second, taller bar represents his full career, including his final three seasons with the White Sox.
 
Results and Discussion
 
My second hypothesis was that college relief pitchers in the Twins system were promoted more slowly, as measured by innings pitched, than the pitchers in the other organizations. Note that this innings pitched data is not intended to differentiate across seasons, only minor league levels.
 
For each of the 11 relief pitchers in the final set, Table 4 lists the number of innings each pitched at each minor league level prior to their major league debuts:
 
Table 4: Relief pitchers, innings pitched per minor league level


 
Below is the same information presented in bar graph format (Figure 2). Already, one or two things start to stand out.
 
Figure 2: Relief pitchers, innings pitched per minor league level, represented as bar graphs


 
The first thing that stood out to me is the tallness of the bar representing Chargois. Chargois pitched more minor league innings prior to his debut than all but Perez.
 
Another clear bit of data that stood out is the number of innings Chargois pitched in rookie league, which I generally thought to be for players coming out of high school. All six of the very good and above average relief pitchers skipped the rookie level. At first, I thought that the Twins not having a short season A- team might have narrowed a choice of assignment to either rookie level or A level, but each of the top three relievers pitched in organizations with a short season A- level team, yet were assigned directly to A level.
 
However, looking at Chargois and the top three relievers, what also stands out is a pattern of promotions those pitchers were given through the minors. Each of the top three of Street, Storen and Perez began their careers at A ball, pitched at AA, and then at AAA. Storen also made a stop at the high A+ level. Each of the top three spent their longest minor league assignment, measured by innings pitched, at AA. On its face, it looks significant to me that this progression of promotions is shared among the top three relievers, and I find it encouraging that Chargois also followed this progression. What’s more, none of the other seven relievers in the set shows this progression in just this way. On the contrary, the promotion patterns of the others seem haphazard in comparison.
 
The most common characteristic shared among all the pitchers is pitching at the AA level. Ten of the eleven pitchers in this set pitched in AA prior to their major league debuts. The top three were then promoted to AAA and promoted to the majors from there. However, six of the other seven were promoted to the majors from AA.
 
Nine of the 11 pitchers prior to their debuts, including Chargois, pitched their highest number of innings in AA. Perhaps these organizations see AA as the most important level for these pitching prospects.
 
But for how long did these other pitchers stay in MLB after their debuts? Here is a chart with an additional bar to represent major league innings pitched following each pitcher’s debut:
 
Figure 3: Relief pitchers, length of first stay in major leagues, represented as a bar graph


 
Again, Chargois stands apart from this group in a few respects. His initial stay in the majors was very brief and fits more with the bottom of the group or relievers than the top group.
 
The table below shows the number of major league game appearances and innings pitched for each pitcher following their initial call up (Table 5):
 
Table 5: Relief pitchers, number of game appearances and innings pitched following MLB debut


 
The best three pitchers had three of the four longest stints in the major leagues. Street was with the team from Opening Day, and Storen and Perez were each called up in the middle of May. Bill Bray was called up in June and then traded in July. Paco Rodriguez was a September call up, then broke camp with the Dodgers the following spring. Only Joey Devine was demoted shortly after his first call up.
 
Leverage of First Appearances
 
Does the leverage index of a debut appearance make a difference?
 
I decided to look at the leverage index of the first three major league appearances of each reliever (Table 6). Approximately, low leverage is a number under 0.85, medium leverage is between 0.85 and 2.00, and high leverage is anything higher than 2.00:
 
Table 6: Relief pitchers, leverage index (LI) of first three major league appearances following first call up


 
Most of the relievers did indeed debut in low leverage situations, if not quite blowout losses as Chargois did. In fact, Huston Street’s first three appearances were also fairly late in blowout games (one win, two losses).
 
The big difference between Street and Chargois is that Street eventually took over the closer role later in his rookie season, something Chargois seems unlikely to do.
 
The highest leverage debut appearance came from Joey Devine, who entered a game in the top of the 12th inning for the Braves. Devine’s appearance was rated a leverage of 2.31. Devine was one of Bobby Cox’s last options from a bullpen that appears to have been depleted from the previous couple of games. Devine pitched a scoreless top of the 12th, struck out trying to lay down a bunt with two strikes in the bottom of the 12th, then got into trouble in the top of the 13th before surrendering a grand slam and taking the loss.
 
Meanwhile, Bill Bray was credited with a win in his debut appearance—without facing a batter. Pitching for the Nationals and manager Frank Robinson, Bray entered a game in Milwaukee in the bottom of the 8th inning with a runner on first and two outs, his team trailing by a run. He was brought in to face the rookie Prince Fielder, but the baserunner was caught stealing after the first pitch, ending the inning. The Nationals scored two runs in the top of the 9th and another pitcher replaced Bray to record a save. Bray got the win. The baserunner who was thrown out? Corey Koskie, in his final major league season.
 
Jesse Crain's MLB debut in August 2004 was in a 0.51 leverage situation, trailing by five runs in the 4th inning versus the Angels. Gardy pulled no punches with Crain’s next two appearances, however, with leverage indexes of 2.85 and 3.41 each, one of those being an extra-inning appearance.
 
As far as leverage is concerned, I am not sure there is enough information—here or anywhere, perhaps—to determine whether a debut appearance in a high leverage situation will impact a career negatively. Introducing a relief pitcher into a low leverage situation wouldn’t seem to hurt, however.
 
Other Pitchers
 
In the following bar graph are the innings pitched of some additional pitchers, including Twins, who were not part of the original set of 11. Each of these pitchers were also relief pitchers in college and developed as relief pitchers in the minors:
 
Figure 4: Relief pitchers, innings pitched in minor leagues, represented as a bar graph


 
The first three remain Street, Storen, and Perez. The next two pitchers, separated by extra space in the middle, are Chargois and Nick Burdi. Chargois’s stats are through his debut in June, while Burdi’s stats are through the end of 2015, before his 2016 season began.
 
The next group of six pitchers is made up of Twins. In order, from left: Billy Bullock, Luke Bard, Zack Jones, Jake Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, and Jesse Crain. The stats for Crain are up through his major league debut in 2004. The stats for the other five Twins pitchers run through the end of the 2015 season and do not include 2016.
 
The final bar at the far right is Josh Fields, who was just traded from Houston to the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is now his fourth professional organization. Briefly on Josh Fields: Fields was among the 19 relievers in the sample above who were college relievers and pitched almost exclusively in relief in the minors. Seattle drafted Fields with the 20th overall pick in 2008, and notice how they assigned him directly to AA, skipping the lower levels completely. After seeing the progression of promotions from the top three relievers, it’s not hard to imagine how Fields might have struggled in that first long minor league assignment, facing a quality of competition he was not yet suited for, and then having trouble catching up and meeting expectations from that point forward.
 
The second tallest bar, next to Fields, is Jesse Crain. You can see how the Twins promoted Crain comparatively slowly, but also according to the progression of minor league levels, without skipping a level. Crain spent the longest time in AAA, rather than AA.
 
Notes on other Twins college relief pitchers here include:
Billy Bullock, drafted in 2009, in the 2nd round with the 70th pick. Bullock was traded to Atlanta during spring training of 2011 after 107.2 minor league innings with the Twins. Bullock pitched in AAA for a couple of seasons and then was suspended in December 2012, effectively ending his career;
Luke Bard (2012), 1st round with the 42nd pick. Bard has been hit with significant injuries which perhaps prolonged his stay in A ball, but is currently healthy and pitching in high A;
Zack Jones (2012), 4th round, 130th overall. Looking at his stat line, Jones seemed to pitch well and even improve on his college numbers in 3 ½ seasons in the Twins system. Jones was then taken in the Rule 5 draft by Milwaukee in December 2015, but returned to the Twins in June. He is pitching in AA;
Jake Reed (2014), 5th round, 140th overall. Reed would not have made my original set, for pitching too many innings in college. Reed sputtered when promoted to AA in 2015, but is performing very close to his college numbers in AA now in 2016;
Trevor Hildenberger, 2014 draft, 22nd round, 650th overall. Successful late round picks are fun stories, and Hildenberger is finally getting some attention this season. Like the others in this study, he was a college reliever who was developed as a reliever in the minors. Like the other Twins, he has progressed through every level, and was promoted comparatively slowly to Street, Storen and Perez, which I attribute partly to his low draft selection and lower expectations. Hildenberger has dominated at AA this season;
Mason Melotakis. I did not include Melotakis in the bar graph above, because the games he pitched as a starter in 2013 would distort his innings compared with the others. He was drafted in 2012, 2nd round, 63rd overall. He has been promoted on the same schedule as the others, with stops at every minor league level, including rookie. Melotakis is also currently pitching in AA;
Pat Light. Light was drafted 37th overall in the 2012 draft. He was a starter in college and in the low minors, but has pitched exclusively as a reliever since being assigned to AA to begin 2015. At AA he has pitched 29.2 innings in 21 appearances, and at AAA he has pitched 64 innings in 51 appearances. He debuted with Boston on April 26 of this season and had two appearances before being demoted back to AAA;
Alan Busenitz. Busenitz was college relief pitcher drafted in the 25th round of the 2013 draft. He has pitched 254 innings in the minor leagues, mostly in relief.
All of which leads us to Nick Burdi.
 
On the surface, it looks as though Burdi and Chargois are being promoted on the same schedule as the other Twins college relief prospects. Here is the comparison of Burdi’s minor league innings through 2015 with the innings pitched by Street, Storen, Perez, Chargois, and Crain prior to their major league debuts:
 
Figure 5: Relief pitchers, comparison


 
Again, Street and Storen were promoted fairly quickly, while Perez and the three Twins were promoted less quickly, or even slowly, in comparison. Chargois and Crain pitched 75.2 and 85.2 innings apiece through the AA level prior to their debuts. Similarly, Burdi reached 84 innings through AA through the end of 2015 (not counting Burdi’s innings during Chattanooga’s 2015 postseason run).
 
Notice how Burdi skipped rookie ball and was assigned directly to A ball in 2014. As we’ve seen, for the Twins this is unusual. Remember too that Burdi struggled in the first half of 2015. After 30.1 innings in AA he was demoted back to A+ for a short time. Burdi then pitched 20 more innings in A+ before his promotion back to AA.
 
Now suppose that Burdi, instead of struggling in those first AA appearances, had pitched very well. Suppose he pitched well enough that instead of being demoted at the end of June, the Twins instead promoted him to AAA, and he pitched in AAA until the end of the Rochester season. Here’s how the graph might look under these new innings totals (FIG 6):
 
Figure 6: Relief pitchers, comparison alternative


 
This alternative promotion schedule is similar to Storen’s, especially through the end of AA. If the 33.1 innings pitched by Burdi after his demotion had all been credited to AAA instead of the lower levels, the AA to AAA innings ratio would have resembled Crain’s prior to Crain’s debut. It is not a stretch of the imagination to think that Burdi would have been considered for a September call-up last season had his season gone differently.
 
Wrapping up
 
Looking only at this small set of 11 pitchers, one can conclude that what is most important to the major league success of these pitchers is not the speed of their promotions, but instead is the logical progression of promotions the pitcher takes through the minor leagues. The pitching prospect is drafted and assigned to a minor league team, after which point the pitcher advances level by level, without skipping more than one level at a time, until AA is reached. A college relief pitcher on a successful development plan can skip the rookie level, but will not skip the AA level. At AA, the pitcher may be asked to pitch more innings than at any previous level. AA is then followed by a stop in AAA, which is followed by the pitcher’s MLB debut. The soundness of this progression is even more evident when looking at the major league careers of the college relief pitchers in this study who did not follow the progression (Figure 2). It’s true that better data and a larger sample of pitchers might alter how this conclusion currently looks, but for now I am standing behind it.
 
Unfortunately for this study, the relative slowness with which the Twins promote their relief prospects means that their success will not be apparent for a while. The quick promotion of Paco Rodriguez, selected 10 picks later than Chargois in 2012, does suggest that a late second round pick would not need to be promoted slowly out of fear of hurting the pitcher’s career. The Dodgers had already gotten more than three seasons and 1.2 fWAR from Rodriguez before trading him away during his age 24 season. With the slower timelines the Twins prefer, the Twins figure to miss out on the early value a college relief pitcher might present.
 
Only after I finished with the above data did I hunt for pitchers with similar profiles who fell outside of my set. This is when I discovered Jesse Crain, drafted in 2002. There are pitchers such as Jake Barrett in Arizona (2012, 3rd round) and Tony Zych in Seattle (2011, 4th round) who were taken a bit later in the draft and spent a great deal more time in the minors than Chargois, but there are also pitchers like Joe Smith (2006, 3rd round), who was promoted rapidly by the Mets and debuted in MLB with only 32.2 minor league innings behind him.
 
A similar, better study of minor league promotions would widen the sample of pitchers, and would also improve on the definition of college reliever as used here.
 
For now, it's reasonable to think that the Twins still expect a few of these relievers in their system to become valuable major league contributors. I would also conclude that most of these relievers have been promoted responsibly, if a little slowly. But again, too slowly? It's hard to know for sure. Chargois could probably have been called up by now. Once Burdi becomes healthy, the Twins will probably ask him to pitch more minor league innings than he really needs. And aside from Chargois and Burdi, there is still an abundance of young pitching prospects in the Twins system waiting for their chance. Perhaps half of the AA Chattanooga bullpen is made up of former college relief pitchers who could stand to use a promotion, but not to the majors yet—to AAA.

A successful stolen base back on May 18 ignited a minor controversy recently in Twins territory. Holding a four run lead in the top of the 7th, the Detroit Tigers were playing it safe against the left handed batter, Joe Mauer. There were two outs, and the Tigers infielders were favoring the right side of the diamond, where any ground ball off Mauer's bat was likely to be hit. Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos was playing well off third. Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario, who was the runner on second, saw an opportunity.
 
Here's how Twins announcer Dick Bremer described what happened next:
 
"And now running to third, with Rosario doing what Trevor Plouffe did the other day, taking advantage of Castellanos playing off the bag, and Rosario ends up at third base anyway with a stolen base before the pitch was thrown."
 
Justin Verlander, the Detroit pitcher, was still in the set position when he noticed Rosario breaking for third base. Verlander quickly stepped off and threw accurately to Castellanos (who himself was running to third to take the throw), but the speedy Rosario, sliding head first into the bag, easily beat them both.
 
Yet Rosario's stolen base was Twins manager Paul Molitor's last straw. After the inning ended, reserve outfielder Darin Mastroianni trotted out to left field instead of Rosario. Molitor had taken Rosario out of the game.
 
"The risk — 100 fold — is greater than the reward," Molitor told reporters afterwards. "Being safe doesn't make it right for me." Interestingly, two days earlier, Trevor Plouffe had attempted almost the same steal of third base under similar conditions — in a middle inning, down several runs. According to Bremer's call of the earlier play, Plouffe should have been out by five feet had the throw from the catcher not skipped wildly into left field. But baseball is a funny game. Plouffe was not only credited with the stolen base, but scored on the error, and perhaps sparked a rally, as the Twins would score three more runs in the inning.
 
How much risk did Rosario's steal entail? Were the Plouffe and Rosario situations all that different? Perhaps the manager was thinking primarily of that old baseball rule of thumb: Never make the final out at third. Here are three more ways to evaluate those steal attempts of third base: Run Expectancy, Win Probability, and Leverage.
 
Run Expectancy
 
The statistic RE24 shows the number of runs a team can expect to score in an inning, given the number of outs, and placement of base runners. A more in depth explanation of this metric can be found here.
 
As Plouffe stood on second base with one out in the May 16 game, the Twins could expect to score 0.644 additional runs before that inning ended. In Rosario's situation two days later, with two outs and a trailing runner on first, 0.343 more runs could be expected.


Obviously, no one scores a decimal or fraction of a run. This is generalized data that gives approximates what to expect over the course of a season.
 
What were the run expectancies after Plouffe and Rosario each stole third? Also, what if they had been thrown out? The following chart shows the run expectancy after those situations:
 


If Rosario had been thrown out, the inning would have ended with no runs scored. But if Plouffe had been thrown out, that also would have left the Twins without much expectation of scoring — a negative expectation of -.549, or half a run.
 
This change in run expectancy is essential to finding a break even percentage for evaluating the risk of stealing a base. More on that here. Finding that break-even point can provide valuable insight — for a player, manager, or fan — to determine for themselves if a steal attempt is worth the trouble. It would be important to weigh this break even point with other variables, such as the throwing ability of the catcher in Plouffe's case, or the speed and guile of the runner himself (as well as the same throwing ability of the same catcher) in Rosario's case. Indeed, the runners themselves are making these calculations intuitively throughout a game.
 
In Plouffe's base-out situation, a steal attempt should have a success rate of 71.3%. In Rosario's situation, a 72.8% success rate is needed. Taking into account other variables, an observer can then form an opinion on any given steal attempt — an imperfect science, to be sure.
 
While RE24 might tell you how advancing an extra base impacts an inning, it doesn't tell you anything about what's happening outside of the inning, or how the steal attempt will affect the score of the game.
 
Win Probability
 
An explanation of win probability can be found here. The Twins were trailing by several runs when both Plouffe and Rosario each stole their base. The chances of winning those games were not high; four- and five-run deficits are hard to overcome.
 
At the moment of Plouffe's steal attempt, the Twins were trailing 8-3 in the 4th inning and had an 8.4% chance of winning the game. At the moment of Rosario's attempt, they were trailing 5-1 in the top of the 7th and their win chances were 5.4%. Here is how those win probabilities changed with their steals, and how they would have changed had they been thrown out.
 


In this case, Molitor's intuition was correct. In terms of win expectancy, having Rosario on third base instead of second increases the win probability only from 5.4% to 5.5%. It does virtually nothing to improve the Twins chances of winning the game.
 
By the way, when the Detroit catcher committed the throwing error allowing Plouffe to score, the Twins win percentage increased, to 10.3%. (Again, these are benchmark numbers which may vary slightly when examining specific game logs on sites like Fangraphs.)
 
For another comparison, here are some other recent base running plays that impacted their games much more than the Plouffe or Rosario steals.
 



*Torii Hunter attempted a straight steal of home versus Oakland in 2015; was tagged out by catcher with time to spare. 

*Miguel attempted to stretch a double into a triple with two outs in the bottom of the 9th in a game against the Tigers. When Sano came to bat, the Twins had a 4.5% chance of winning, and stopping at second base with a double would have raised that chance to 14.6%. Reaching third base on a triple would have increased the win chance to 16.5% 

*Danny Santana was attempting to steal third base on a pitch which hit Dozier and stopped the play. Looking at the video gives no indication if Santana would have made it safely. He ran at the delivery of the pitch without the head start of Rosario. 

Also note that, even though Sano's attempt to stretch a triple ended the game, it did not have the impact on the game that Santana's caught stealing attempt had on the game on May 19.  
What this chart shows is that there are much higher leveraged base running situations which will impact a ballgame than the stolen bases of Plouffe and Rosario.
 
Leverage
 
The Leverage Index (LI) attempts to quantify the importance of a given game situation. More information here.
 
Fangraphs presently recognizes three types of leverage: low, medium, high. Any leverage index number lower than 0.85 is considered low, and above 2.00 is considered high. As a benchmark, the leadoff hitter in the top of the first comes to bat in a leverage situation of .87 but again, these numbers can change slightly and are regularly updated.
 
Here are the baserunning plays from the previous example, as measured by Leverage Index, with a dotted line to indicate low, medium, and high leverage situations:


You see how the stolen bases of Plouffe and Rosario are fairly insignificant when it comes to other moments in a ballgame that can swing the result.
 
The Twins have done a good job of stealing third base during Molitor’s tenure. From the start of 2015 through the end of May 2016, the Twins have stolen third base in 14 out of 17 tries, for an 82.4% success rate, where the American League average is roughly 16 steals in 20 tries.
 
Here is a list of all attempted steals of third base, for both the Twins and their opponents, since the start of 2015. The dashed lines indicate markers between low, medium, and high leverage situations.


Plotting these leverage numbers onto a graph shows that, consistent with Molitor’s statements above, the Twins have a greater sensitivity to risk when it comes to stealing third, at least since Molitor has been manager. Granted, there is not enough data here for a firm conclusion to be made, nor is there a strong enough correlation to support the regression lines drawn in. Nevertheless, I do feel a story starts to emerge.


As close ballgames advance into the later innings, the leverage of each play naturally increases. While opponents continue to steal third against the Twins in the late innings, more of the Twins attempts seem to come in the earlier innings. With more data, the risk aversion Molitor hinted at might become clearer.
 
There are four dots almost off the chart in the upper right corner that skew the data a bit.
 
Two of the three red dots come from the exciting game versus Kansas City back on September 9th, when Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore both stole third in the late innings, but did not score. The Twins eventually won that game in the 12th inning on a Miguel Sano home run. The other red dot is Oakland’s Billy Burns stealing third base and scoring the winning run in the 10th inning in a game last July.
 
The black dot up in the corner? That’s Eddie Rosario again, stealing third base with two outs in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game against the Seattle Mariners last August. He stole the base without a throw, and then scored the winning run on a walk-off single to left from Suzuki.
 
There might be some interesting information hiding in all this scattered data, or there might not. So far, the jury is still out. Neither the performances of Rosario or Molitor this season give us enough information to take hard sides on the contentious stolen base back on May 18.
 
One thing that does seem apparent, however, is a difference in game philosophy with the manager and playing style with at least one of the young prospects the Twins are counting upon. In order to get the best performance from their players and return to the successes they have known in the past, the Twins will probably need to reconcile these differences — not only between Molitor and Rosario, but also between others on the field and in the organization.

More than 100 years ago Minnesota was home to one of the best baseball teams in the country. The St. Paul Colored Gophers, who in 1909 beat the Chicago-based Leland Giants for the title of “Blackball World Champions,” are just one of the teams highlighted in the new book “They Played for the Love of the Game: Untold Stories of Black Baseball in Minnesota” by Frank White.
 
A thoroughly researched addition to our state’s history, this title is also visually appealing with the inclusion of approximately 100 photos, including one of Prince Honeycutt, Minnesota’s presumed first black baseball player who helped form the Fergus Falls North Stars baseball club in 1873, and scorecards from the Uptown Sanitary Shop, a baseball club formed by a dry cleaning business in St. Paul in 1922.
 
The Negro National League, which ultimately included some of the most famous names in baseball history including Satchel Paige and Josh Gibson, was started by Chicagoan Rube Foster in 1920. When reading White’s book, one question comes to mind: with Minnesota’s prominence in the world of black baseball why weren’t they awarded a team when the league started? Perhaps it was because of an issue that still confronts us today – travel. “It was probably just too financially difficult to have a team in Minnesota,” Frank White told me recently.
“Minnesota was considered far away from the other teams.”
 
In today’s over stimulated world of endless varieties of entertainment, another theme of the book is the rise of baseball as America’s game – one picture from 1925 shows a girls team from the Phyllis Wheatley Settlement House in north Minneapolis. What was it about baseball that captivated a nation no matter who you were? “It allowed you to walk away from everyday challenges,” said White. “For those who played the game, there was nothing quite as satisfying as the feeling of hitting the ball flush with a wooden bat.”
 
White also includes a personal connection to this slice of state history – his father, Louis White, played with the Twin City Colored Giants in the 1950’s and Buck O'Neil (who gained fame after eloquently sharing his remembrances of the Negro Leagues for the PBS miniseries "Baseball") once tried to recruit him to join the Kansas City Monarchs. The annals of baseball lore run deep and the stories are seemingly endless for those who played for the love of the game.
Frank White will be doing a talk at the Hosmer Library in Minneapolis on Monday, June 27 from 6:30 - 8 pm. For more information or for future events, you can visit his website at http://www.minnesotablackbaseball.com

Source: Article: Your Turn: What Do You Want From A GM?

The Minnesota Twins lost this afternoon.
 
Ordinarily, I’d say things have reached the point where another Twins loss falls into the “dog bites man” category. It’s not exactly news.
 
But this loss had a couple of things going for it that gave me cause to put pen to paper (figuratively, of course).
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
 
First of all, I actually watched the game on television. Between attending Kernels games and being blacked out by MLB’s “local market” television rights policy, I don’t see many Twins games these days. I did, however, grab lunch at my local hangout and watch them lose 6-3 to the Detroit Tigers.
 
Second, and more notably, was the day that Eddie Rosario had.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Rosario16a-600x400.jpg
Eddie Rosario (Photo: SD Buhr)

Rosario had a bad day. It started in the first inning when he threw to the wrong base and failed to keep a runner from advancing. He had his typical no-plate-discipline day with the bat, striking out twice, while looking bad. He failed to make a catch on a “tweener” that fell for a hit in shallow left field. And then came the top of the seventh inning.
 
Rosario grounded a single up the middle and, a couple of batters later, found himself at second base with two outs and the Twins trailing 5-1 with Joe Mauer at the plate. That’s when things got interesting.
 
The Tigers went into a modified shift, with their shortstop barely to the left of second base and their third baseman, Nick Castellanos, playing deep and at least 25 feet away from third base. As Justin Verlander went into his stretch, Rosario took a walking lead off second and then broke for third.
 
Verlander stepped back off the rubber and threw to third, but by the time Castellanos got to the bag and caught the throw, Rosario was there with relative ease.
 
The Tigers continued their shift against Mauer and, on the next pitch, Rosario took an extended lead down the third base line, prompting Verlander to step back again and, since there was literally no infielder remotely close to third base, all he could do was take a few running steps at Rosario to force him back to the bag.
 
Since Mauer ultimately struck out, it really didn’t matter where the Tigers placed their infielders, nor did it matter whether Rosario was on second or third base. And, I suppose, since the Twins only ultimately scored three runs in the game, while giving up six, I guess you could argue it wouldn’t have mattered if Rosario had managed to score.
 
But all of it did matter. Boy did it matter.
 
Because when the Twins took the field, Darin Mastroianni took Rosario’s spot in the outfield.
 
You see, whether you call it conventional wisdom or one of baseball’s unwritten rules, Rosario was not supposed to steal third base with his team down four runs in the seventh inning and the team’s best hitter at the plate. He would, the argument goes, have scored on a Mauer single just as easily from second base as he would from third and stealing third base in that situation represented a risk greater than the potential reward.
 
In his post-game comments to the media, manager Paul Molitor made it clear he wasn’t happy with Rosario.
 
According to a Tweet from Brian Murphy of the Pioneer-Press, Molitor remarked, "The risk 100 fold is greater than reward. Being safe doesn’t make it right. I wanted to get Eddie out of the game at that point."
 
Now, let me just say that I’ve been slow to be overly critical of Paul Molitor. I’ve had the pleasure of speaking to the man personally and came away knowing with 100% certainty that he has “100 fold” more knowledge of baseball than I do.
 
With that said, I believe he was wrong in this situation. I realize that in Molitor’s mind (and that of many, many baseball traditionalists), stealing third base in that situation was not something a runner should do.
 
And maybe it wasn’t. But, while I’m open to that possibility, I don’t think it was as cut-and-dried as others (including Molitor, obviously) do.
 
First, forget the four run deficit. If we know anything, it’s that every run matters. If you have a chance to improve your chances of scoring a run, you should do it. It’s not like the Tigers haven’t coughed up a four run lead lately. They couldn’t protect a lead of twice that many runs just two nights earlier.
 
The steal (and subsequent excessive lead off third base) might have aggravated Verlander. But, I hope we can all agree that, even if it did, that doesn’t make what Rosario did wrong, in the least. If anything, aggravating the pitcher in that situation is what a runner SHOULD try to do.
 
In fact, if I were to criticize Rosario for anything in this sequence, it might be for not continuing to take such a huge lead down the third base line that Verlander and the Tigers couldn’t possibly ignore him. Hell, let him try to steal home there if they insist on playing their nearest infielder 30 feet away from the bag. But, in all likelihood, his third base coach was reigning him in at that point.
 
If Rosario had been MORE aggressive, rather than being wrangled in, maybe the Tigers would have been forced to abandon (or at least significantly modify) their shift against Mauer, and thus shifting the odds more in favor of him coming through with a hit to drive Rosario in.
 
But Mauer struck out and Rosario was benched for his efforts.
 
Now, maybe Molitor’s patience with Rosario had simply run out. After all, his poor throw in the first inning, his flailing at pitches and his allowing a ball to drop in the outfield were each arguably, by themselves, grounds for being yanked by his manager.
 
Rosario has been bad most of the year and chances are he’d already be back in Rochester if Byron Buxton had played well enough to keep a big league roster spot. But Molitor and the Twins need a couple of outfielders on the roster than can cover some ground if they’re going to let Oswaldo Arcia and Miguel Sano spend a lot of time out there. So he’s still around (for now).
 
I’m undoubtedly more of an “old-school” baseball fan than most Twins fans are, especially those fans who are active on social media. And I’m not a big Rosario fan. I’d have probably shipped him out, via trade, demotion or release, before now, even though part of me would love to see what the Twins could do with a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler outfield at some point.
 
He frustrates me and I do believe his play is one major reason the Twins have underperformed (but just one of many reasons).
 
But I loved what he did on the bases in the seventh inning and I think, by yanking him, Molitor sent a dangerous precedent with this team.
 
The Twins have won just 10 games. They aren’t going to improve by just trying to play baseball in traditional methods better than they have been. They need to shake things up and start aggressively doing things in ways that their opponents aren’t expecting – and that’s what Rosario was doing.
 
If your opponents don’t like that you’re stealing third base when they shift, that’s a good reason TO do it. Take chances. Manufacture runs. Be frigging aggressive in everything you do.
 
That might make some people uncomfortable and one of those people very possibly is a baseball traditionalist like Molitor.
 
Say what you will about Rosario and we could say plenty. Say he swings at too many bad pitches. Say he tries to throw lead runners out when he should keep force plays in effect. Say he takes unwise chances on the basepaths.
 
But at least Rosario is trying to DO something different and when you've lost three quarters of your first 40-ish games of the season, maybe "different" is good.
 
If the Twins are going to begin the transition to a roster of new young players, and take some lumps in the process, how about they at least instill a culture of aggressiveness while doing it. It may not prevent the Twins from losing 90 games (or even 100 games) this season, but it would at least be more fun to watch, wouldn’t it?

Matt Bush has been called up from AA and is joining the Rangers 25-man roster. For those who don't know, or perhaps more aptly, don't remember, he was the much maligned High School shortstop, picked first overall in 2004 by San Diego. The pick was panned from the start as the Padres picked the hometown kid who played a premium position and passed up a perceived can't-miss ace in Justin Verlander, who made it well known that he was going to sign for big bucks. Due to the similarities, the top of this draft drew all kinds of comparisons to 2001 when the Twins more successfully took hometown kid Joe Mauer, who played a premium position, over the more heralded "can't-miss ace" Mark Prior.
 
Well things didn't work out so well for Bush or the Padres. He couldn't hit, he couldn't field and he didn't develop any power or speed. What he did develop was an alcohol and drug problem. The Padres kicked him to the curb, and likely thinking of the team's past failure to get the best out of Josh Hamilton, Tampa Bay picked him up and stuck him on the mound. That was a short lived union however as he was arrested and jailed for 51 months after nearly killing a motorcyclist which according to reports may or may not have been his third car accident of the day.
 
Out of prison, Bush was picked up this past year by Texas, who continued on with Tampa's pitching experiment. Well it appears as though it worked. In Double A he has a 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 2.61 ERA. Of course this is only in 17 innings pitched.
 
Of this crazy story, it was that last part that struck me the most, the guy has been in prison for over four years, has thrown only 17 innings this year and was basically a shortstop before hitting the big house, yet the Rangers have already called him up to the majors. Eat your heart out JT Chargois.
 
I have no idea if Matt Bush is contrite, humble or a changed man, if he is, I'm sorry for this next part, because all I can picture after reading this story is a Ranger's player asking him where he played last season. His response would be of course:
 
http://images1.houstonpress.com/imager/u/original/6716749/charlie_sheen_r102610_thumb_200x151.jpg
"California Penal."

March 17th is the birthday of Washburn High School (Mpls) alumnus and Major League pitcher, Harold "Hy" Vandenberg, born in 1906. He made his Major League debut with the Boston Red Sox in 1935 at age 29, though he wouldn't win his first game until 1940 with the New York Giants, and his 2nd not until 1944 with the Chicago Cubs. The 6'4" right-hander, who got his professional start with the Minneapolis Millers, appeared in 90 Major League games, going 15-10 with 5 saves during seven seasons over an eleven year period. Additionally, he pitched in at least 435 minor league games, compiling a record of 139-128.
 
Hy Vandenberg was born in Abilene, Kansas. When Vandenberg was 4 years old his father died from tuberculosis and his mother moved the surviving members of the family to Minneapolis. Vandenberg began playing professional baseball with the Minneapolis Millers right out of high school, though he does not appear in the statistical record until age 24, when, in 1930, he pitched for the Bloomington, Illinois Cubs. He bounced around minor league baseball, going back and forth between Bloomington, Minneapolis and elsewhere before finally ending up in Syracuse in 1935 where he caught the attention of the Boston Red Sox. Vandenberg, however, didn't exactly think he was given a fair trial with Boston. He made only three relief appearances over a six week period, giving up 12 runs in 5 1/3 innings before heading back to Syracuse.
 
Vandeberg next appeared in the Major Leagues in 1937, getting one start for the New York Giants versus the Brooklyn Dodgers at Ebbets Field. He allowed 7 runs over 8 innings in a 7-4 loss. He appeared in 6 games for Giants in '38, and 2 in '39, spending most of his time with the Jersey City farm club. He finally got his first Major League win in 1940 in a 5-2 Giants win against the Phillies in Philadelphia. The New York Times described the 5 hit, complete game victory as an "elegant mound triumph."
 
After 1940, Vandenberg would not pitch in the Majors again until 1944 when he re-emerged with the Chicago Cubs, appearing in 35 games, more than the 25 appearances he had accumulated in his previous 5 stints in the Majors combined. He finished 1944 with a 7-4 record, 2 saves and a 3.63 ERA.
 
Vandenberg held out into the 1945 season, training at the University of Minnesota. Once he did report to the Cubs, however, he matched his success from the year before, compiling a 7-3 record and 3.49 ERA in 30 games. The Cubs played the Detroit Tigers in the 1945 World Series. Though the Cubs lost in 7 games, Vandenberg provided solid relief pitching in games 4, 5 and 7.
 
Despite coming off of his two most successful seasons, the Cubs released Vandenberg during spring training in 1946. Possibly dispirited, he performed poorly in the minors with Oakland and Milwaukee. In 1947 his contract was purchased by Oklahoma City, but he chose instead to leave professional baseball and pitched for the Springfield, Minnesota team in the amateur Western Minor League.
 
Following his playing career, Vandenberg worked as an engineering technician for the Hennepin County Highway Administration. Hy Vandenberg died from cancer at his home in Bloomington, Minnesota in 1994. He was 88 years old.
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/pics/hy_vandenberg_autograph.jpg
 
For more stories of the Major Leaguers who grew up in Minnesota, like Major Minnesotans on Facebook, and follow me on Twitter @MajorMinnesota.
 
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w413/mjohnso9/20160316_173242_zpsw33tqxhy.jpg

Some random, small sample thoughts on the Twins performance, based mostly on what the box scores are telling us, as we approach the halfway point of spring training. All the normal caveats about small sample, quality of opponents, and then some. I feel putting it in writing here will let me see how they hold up as spring training ends and we get going into the regular season.
 
_______
 
The bullpen. The three back end guys are Perkins, Jepsen and May. Good on Molly to give May a start today, though. I’d like to see May be a starter again in future seasons, but for this year, he looks ticketed for the 'pen. Add to those three Fien and Abad. That makes five relievers who look to start the season, and of those five, only Fien has allowed an earned run in relief. That’s not bad. Spring training is not necessarily a meaning-making exercise, but you'd rather be doing good than bad.
 
Additionally, Nick Burdi and J. T. Chargois, our future bullpen anchors, have each thrown 3 scoreless innings. The future might be here early, let's hope. A lot of people were critical of the inaction this winter (not me) but either way, we need guys who can get outs.
 
Forcing the Twins hand is the fact that guys like Aaron Thompson and Michael Tonkin are struggling to pitch any scoreless innings. Disappointing. (Granted Thompson is no longer on the 40-man.) And throw Meyer in with them. Meyer has faced 8 batters, struck out 3, walked 3, and the other batters 2 had line drive base hits. No batter he has faced has been retired in the field. Two of those other batters were thrown out stealing. Go figure. Nor have other guys like Dean, Reed and Melotakis haven’t put their names in the headlines yet. It’s still early, however.
 
Then shift to J. R. Graham and Ryan Pressly. Combined, they have pitched 7 scoreless innings. Both are guys that Ryan picked up in the Rule 5 draft and right now, from 35,000 feet, I’d give Pressly a strong chance to make the Opening Day roster. Zack Jones, who Ryan lost to the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft this winter, blew out his shoulder prior to training camp, hasn't resumed throwing yet. Longshots O’Rourke and Kintzler have also pitched 3 scoreless innings apiece. Of those two, give the edge to O’Rourke because he’s awesome on the 40 man.
 
Prediction: either Burdi or Chargois forces the Twins hand on a promotion right away in April, or even breaking from camp. I’d prefer the latter.
 
Now let me talk about our new designated hitter. I’m not exactly sure how his name is styled, if it should read Park Byung-ho, or Byung Ho Park, or even Byung-ho Pak, without the R. I’d like to get it right, because he’s going to be good. After a forgetful first game (three strikeouts), he has batted 8-19 with 3 homers. Let’s roll the dice; he is ready.
 
Arcia, Vargas and Santana have not hit yet, but that could change. Arcia is playing out of position in left field, Santana is playing several positions that he will struggle at in the majors, and Vargas in my opinion plays first base at least as well as Mauer does, but I’d much rather have Mauer for another year than Vargas. Vargas just hasn’t hit consistently since his first call up. Despite Mauer’s struggles, I still usually feel confident when he comes to the plate. I can’t say that about Vargas. Fortunately Vargas still has an option year and can play in Rochester again until needed.
 
As has also been pointed out, Carlos Quentin is receiving the most playing time of the non roster invitees, by far. He’s also playing all over the field. He hasn’t been a full time player in years—he was even retired last season. The Twins wouldn’t ask him to play full time, but with Park showing he’s ready to DH there’s just no spot for Quentin, unless the Twins want to cut Santana or Arcia, which in my mind would be shortsighted for the limited value Quentin might provide. No doubt Quentin has shown in the past that he can mash, and hopefully he will accept some time in AAA and let the Twins see how things play out.
 
Buxton figures to make the team, but is striking out a lot. I’m not too worried so long as the Twins can keep him in good spirits and let the development happen as it's meant to for him.
 
And finally, Miguel Sano. Have you ever seen him hit? When people in sports bars hold up their phones to film Sano at bats on the television, that’s pretty special. Most of us expect him to struggle some in right field, and he will. But he got an outfield assist recently; expect him to get even more outfield assists after the season starts, as opposing base runners test his instincts out there.
 
Speaking of outfield assists, don’t try to run on Rosario out in left. Or rather, please do try to run on Rosario.

I did something recently that I hadn’t done in probably 15 years.
 
It used to be a habit. In fact, in retrospect, it may have actually become my very first true habit – something I came to feel I needed. Whether it was a good habit or a bad habit is probably open to debate, depending on one’s perspective.
 
(This article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/carlinquote-2-600x400.jpg
 
The habit had its roots in my youth. My dad was a baseball coach, so I spent most of my spring and summer playing or watching baseball. I spent a lot of time around the high school players that my dad coached and wanted to do pretty much anything that would make me feel connected to real ballplayers.
 
I turned five years old during the Minnesota Twins’ first season of existence in 1961 and it was at least indirectly because of the way my friends and I followed that team in the early to mid-60s that we eventually began to spend an increasing percentage of our weekly allowances to feed our mutual habit (remember when kids got allowances that they had to learn to live within each week?).
 
My parents seemed to understand. They were baseball fans, after all, and didn’t want to discourage me from being one, too. Of course, had they known how much money I would eventually spend (arguably, “throw away” might be a more appropriate term) on the habit, they might have more closely supervised or restricted my activities. Then again, people did a lot of things in the 60s that, it turns out, weren’t exactly good ideas.
 
By the late 1980s, I was more heavily involved with the habit and I could see that my own young son was also taking it up. I was even more of an enabler than my own father had been with me. I didn’t even make my son spend his own money to get started on the habit, I covered a significant portion of the financial commitment necessary to get him hooked.
 
By the mid 1990s, my son and I were both putting money into buying baseball cards.
 
He graduated from high school in 2001 and I’m not sure how much he has continued to spend on the habit, but I’m certain he hasn’t kept up with the levels we did when he was younger.
 
Personally, I have picked up a pack once in a great while, but I hadn’t bought a full multi-pack hobby box of cards for a very long time – until now.
 
I don’t know what made me backslide. I could probably blame it on the idleness that comes with having retired from my day-job, leading me to spend too many of my cold (and not-so-cold) winter days in bored hibernation. But the honest truth is, I just wanted to do it.
 
I wanted to buy a box of cards and spend some time opening every pack, looking to see what superstars might emerge as I tore open the packs and thumbed my way through the individual cards - just the way I did when I was eight years old and hoping to find a Harmon Killebrew or Tony Oliva, while I combed past the checklists and the inevitable Bill Monbouquette card that seemed to be present in every pack.
 
And it felt good. Very good. Maybe dangerously good, for a guy who’s facing a future of living on a relatively fixed (and potentially decreasing) retirement income.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/BuxtonCorreaCard-2-600x400.jpg
Nice card. Now if it had just been autographed by both of these guys...

I’m not sure what caused me to backslide. I think perhaps a couple pictures of new cards found their way into my Twitter timeline, triggering a previously buried subliminal command that forced me to spend time entering various baseball card-related phrases into my search engine of choice that day. At least I’ll blame it on Twitter. I blame a lot of things on Twitter, after all.
 
In the end, I decided to order a box of 2012 Panini Extra Edition Elite cards. Honestly, until the day I ordered them, I hadn’t heard of Panini baseball cards. It turns out, though, that they issue sets of prospect cards each year and the fact that they supposedly included six autographed cards in each hobby box (20 packs with 5 cards per pack) was a selling point.
 
I figured the 2012 set might include some of the first three classes of Twins-affiliated Cedar Rapids Kernels that I've gotten to know during the past three seasons.
 
The box arrived Thursday morning. It was smaller than I envisioned it being, but I got past that. Alas, many things from the days of our youth seemed bigger than they really were, in retrospect.
 
I opened the box and gave some thought about how I wanted to proceed with opening the packs. I considered opening just three or four packs a day, spreading out the fun of opening them over the course of at least a few days.
 
Yeah, that didn’t happen. I opened the first 10 packs in just minutes, coming across four autographs and a handful of other special “numbered series” cards in the process. I paused at that point to get a drink and look up the names of a couple of the unfamiliar guys I now had autographs of.
 
I’m not too proud to admit there were a couple of well-regarded prospects in 2012 that I had no recollection of ever hearing about (but I’m also not going to open myself up to public humiliation by admitting exactly who they were).
 
After acquainting myself with those players, I ripped into the remaining 10 packs.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/KyleTuckerCard-2-600x400.jpg
About the time this card was being released, Kyle Tucker was turning 15 years old. Three years later he became the Astros' 2015 first round draft choice (5th overall).

I ended up with seven autograph cards (one more than the promised six - bonus!) and my hopes concerning picking up a few former Kernels/Future Twins were also realized. Among them were Luke Bard, Adam (sans Brett) Walker, Mason Melotakis and J.O. (a.k.a. Jose) Berrios.
 
Twins pitching prospect J.T. Chargois showed up in a pack, as well, though he never had the honor of wearing a Kernels jersey.
 
None of the autograph cards were Twins prospects, but I did get a “Building Blocks” card featuring the Astros’ Carlos Correa and Twins uber-prospect Byron Buxton.
 
Maybe best of all, there wasn’t a Bill Monbouquette in the entire box. In fact, I only had a total of three duplicate cards. (if you're a particular fan of Joe DeCarlo, Brett Mooneyham or Matt Price, let me know and I'll hook you up with a card.)
 
As I write this, probably three hours or so after opening the last pack of the box, I’m left to wonder what this all means.
 
I want to convince myself that this was a one-time thing – that buying one box of cards doesn’t mean I’m destined to relapse into the full depths of another epoch of card-collecting. I’m just not sure that even I would believe that.
 
If you should hear that I’ve decided to take my 401(k) money in a single lump sum, please pray for me.

I am lucky enough to get some updates from a friend who visits Hammond often, I bet there are a few on here that would enjoy them. Here is the first one of the year.
 
Hi guys! I went to Hammond this morning. When I arrived Phil Roof was pitching to Byung Ho Park,
Adam B. Walker, O. Arcia and someone I didn't know. Park has a nice smooth swing, hits line drives
with little effort, and hit at least one that was way over the fence in left. Arcia did not impress; hitting
ground balls and popups. Those of us watching were talking about Walker. Nice easy swing and
the ball easily clearing the fence a few times.
Then they switched and the 5 guys that were shagging came to hit, but I did not recognize any of them;
They all looked very young. One lefty gave Arcia a good workout in right field. I wondered if he might
be the new catcher.
When they were done I got Arcia to sign a ball; told him he was my son's favorite player. He asked,
"Is he here?" I said not today and he said tell him hello from me. Seems like a real nice guy.
Then I got Walker to sign another ball. After he walked away from me Pat Reusse started talking to him
about getting together for an interview. When they finished Reusse started toward a clubhouse guy;
I said hello, Mr. Reusse, and he nodded toward me. When he left that guy he hollered at me,"What's
your name; where you from?" I told him my name and from Cape Coral. Then he asked about the
tornado and we walked together to our cars. He had the top down on his Solara. He said the club-
house guy said there should be more guys coming in starting tomorrow. I plan to go over Thursday;
got a coupla hot bridge games the next 2 days.
The highlight of my day; I've always wanted to meet him down here. Later, guys!

Has any one else been to these winter caravans? If so what was your take on the event. I brought my son to the Twins caravan last night in Marshall MN that hosted Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar and Dan Gladden. I found the question and answer session pretty humorous as it was mostly lighthearted and conversational. The one question that stood out was some kid asking Brian if Pete Rose deserved to be in the hall of fame, he looked around and asked if this was being recorded and someone told him it was. He then softly said "no" and that was the end of that. I tried to get my son to ask Brian if he worked on anything this offseason to avoid the second slump he had last year. My son of course would not ask this but it was revealed that Brian did hire a nutritionist to maintain his energy levels as the season wore on to avoid the downs that he had during the last half of the season last year.

A tribute to the old locker room, as construction on our new one starts today-
 
When people think of a locker room, they imagine the surroundings; the lockers, the gear, the showers. Although when you play a sport, it becomes much more than a storage area. The relationships formed and the stories shared give the space an entirely different meaning.
 
The locker room is where teams are formed, a place where you can sit down and chill with your buddies and escape the day’s troubles. Between the time you enter and the time you leave, there is not only a gear change but a mentality change as well. You can leave your daily stresses at the door and play a game you love, if only for a few hours.
 
I had never truly realized the impact of the locker room until one afternoon a few week ago, when I was sitting next to one of my roommates, sophomore pitcher, Jeff Fasching, as everyone was preparing for the Monday lift. First of three for the week. In front of us, about ten feet away, stood Lucas Gilbreath and Jordan Kozicky battling it out in Guitar Hero, a game introduced to the locker room this fall that has taken over the only television. Standing up around me, are goofball Tyler Hanson, freshman Terrin Vavra, and others playing catch with the football around the couches. I look up and they run a play action pass, and Vav drags his feet in front of the couch for what I assume to be a touchdown.
 
Behind us there is a table with squeaky chairs where others are sitting, eating snacks and talking about their weekends. The rest are scattered around the room hanging out. For a team that has been trying to get a new locker room for a couple years now, we might take for granted what we have, but in this moment, the room appears magical.
 
Over the course of my year and a half of collegiate baseball, I have learned that my strongest memories will be the friendships formed around the common goals of winning games and striving to be our best. Too often athletes can get caught up on performance, but our focus took on a new purpose that Monday… great guys and great friends, all enjoying the camaraderie we share.
 
The game of baseball has the power to wear you down mentally, and the friendships in the locker room become the strength for us to endure together. On this day and in this moment, I was given the serenity to step back and let it all settle in.
 
Though most of my collegiate career lies out ahead, I know that when the end comes I will miss going to the locker room every day and hunkering down in the corner by the fridge (or wherever my new locker may be). I will miss the sounds of laughter and friendship. I will miss the spirit of team and the laying down of ones troubles. As I sit in the room day after day, I can only imagine the memories and friendships of players before me, knit together by their deep love of the game.
 
If only the walls could talk.

Happy Thanksgiving! It is once again that time of the year to select our annual Twins Turkey of the Year winner. This year we get to select our seventh annual Twins Turkey of the Year award winner, who will be lucky number seven? As always we have plenty of blue-chip candidates to scrutinize, analyze, and reflect on. First off we need to narrow the list down to a manageable size.
 
To view the rest of the story that was recently posted at twinstrivia.com please go to http://wp.me/p1YQUj-37Z

It's been a hard fall for me to write in these spaces. Every evening I try to sit down to write, I find a dozen other things to do. There are papers to grade and recommendations to submit and people to actually be married to. So while I love to write, and even though I want to write, it slips through my fingers more often than I like.
 
This past week, I had the time, I had the energy, but every time I opened up this page, I stopped and stared. And as the feeds from North Minneapolis streamed into my phone, as people I love and trust engaged in louder and louder protests for more pressing matters than quality sports analysis, I couldn't find it in myself to write.
 

So as I sat in front of the screen, I could think of nothing to say that wasn't horribly, dreadfully irrelevant. And when I went in to work, to discuss issues of the day with young people who lived blocks from the fourth precinct, who spent all night raising their voices for justice, all I could think was how insignificant it would be to write down potential snarky nicknames for Byung-Ho Park or warmed over jokes about how I liked St. Vincent and the Grenadines better when it was Bill Murray and a light syrup.
 
What reason could I have for publishing my millions of minor notions about these silly little games, while a senior boy--a young man I've worked with for four years, an academic on track for college and a major in architecture, a person I would trust to rule justly and fairly as Grand Poobah of the Universe-- while this friend of mine confessed his intense fear that the last thing he would ever see would be the somebody's boots on the curb, and the last thing he would hear would be the cocking of a gun, as he lay on the street with his hands behind his back?
 
The truth is, I (and many people like me) have the privilege of turning off the news, of tuning out the rhetoric, of tending to our hobbies and interests, because we don't live near the fourth precinct or worry that our lives will end with a bang and a brief, perfunctory, utterly unsurprised comment on the local news.
 
It's particularly easy for those of us who love sports to see successful people of color in our community, to cheer for their successes, wish them the best and forget that people like them in our community are struggling. We can bleed purple with Adrian and Teddy and dream on the futures of Byron, Miguel and Byung-Ho. We can debate the upside of Towns and Wiggins and marvel at the cross-cultural partnerships of Ibson and Alhassan and remind everybody that we loved Maya Moore and Simone Augustus before it was cool to do so. We can, and do, hold our local heroes close whatever their background, even though--as fans in the stands--we have always looked more like Killebrew and Mikan than Hunter and Garnett.
 
http://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/NTE2WDcxMg==/$(KGrHqRHJCgE8fjuOpMTBPNG5TYvCg~~60_35.JPG
But what's dangerous is if we start to feel that, because we know the men (and women) who wear jerseys emblazoned with Minnesota, we don't need to know the men and women, the fathers and mothers, the sons and daughters who walk the same streets, work in the same buildings, and attend the same institutions that we do.
 
If we confine ourselves to watching the games from the comfort of our couches and our big screens, we miss the joy of watching together. If we insulate our passions to the podcasts on our headphones or isolate our opinions to small talk with family members and friends, we turn our very public institutions into extremely private pleasures. But, if we insist on sharing our loves, if we make a point of socializing around the colors and emblems and players that we adopt as "one of us," then these silly little games can unite us in a way that few other things can.
 
Right now, with the ways we consume sports changing rapidly, it's easy to isolate ourselves in our fandoms. And for those who attend games on a regular basis, it's even easier to forget that what you see on the field or the court or the ice isn't reflected in the stands (even adjusted for our metropolitan demographics).
 
As mere fans, there's little we can do. No championship trophy is going to unite us all or solve the systemic problems that have left so many so desperate for change. We can't have one good conversation at a sports bar, or over the water cooler and end injustice.
 
What we can do is be open. What we can do is to talk about what we love and learn what others think. What we can do is use sports as the icebreaker, as the gateway, as the conversation starter, to come together and build a better community.
 
We might have to go out of our way to find new opinions. We may need to visit a bar on Lake Street rather than in Northeast to watch a Champions' League match. We may need to share more than a nod with a neighbor or coworker who wears team gear after a big win. We can invite them to watch the game on Sunday (or Saturday, or whatever day). We can take an extra ticket that a friend flaked on and try to pass it on to someone different rather than just resell it. We can donate to the team funds that make attending a game easier for others. These things won't bring justice or peace, but they will bring us a little closer together.
 

I talk about sports, even at times like these, not because I want a distraction from work or the worries of the day. I talk about sports because it reminds me of how great it is to be part of something bigger than myself: bigger than my job, bigger than my worries. Sports reminds me of what it is to be part of a community of fans, and how much better we are together than we are alone.
 
I'm not sure when I'll have time to write again, or if it'll be about sports when I do, but I know I'll ask the boy from over North--the one who still wears a Mauer jersey through every snorting laugh from his friends--what he thinks of the bullpen for next year; I'll ask the girl from Lake Street who moons over Ronaldo if she's seen Christian Ramirez up close yet. And after we talk about that, we'll talk about the next thing, and the next, and the next, until we stop being two individuals talking and start being a pair of fans in community.

A short blurb from 1909 that ran on page 4 of the Princeton Union of Princeton Minn:
 

________________________


 

."To show that Japan is making rapid



progress. in. the. American. game. of



baseball. it is only necessary to state



that. in. Tokio. alone. seven.. umpires



have. already. been. trampled. in. the



dust for alleged crooked decisions." .


 

________________________


 
Source: The Princeton Union. Princeton, Minn. October 7, 1909, p. 4.
Link: http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83016758/1909-10-07/ed-1/seq-4/#date1=10%2F06%2F1909&sort=state&date2=10%2F07%2F1909&searchType=advanced&language=&sequence=0&index=46&words=baseball&proxdistance=5&rows=50&ortext=baseball&proxtext=&phrasetext=&andtext=&dateFilterType=range&page=2

A short blurb from 1909 that ran on page 4 of the Princeton Union of Princeton Minn:
 

________________________


 

."To show that Japan is making rapid



progress. in. the. American. game. of



baseball. it is only necessary to state



that. in. Tokio. alone. seven.. umpires



have. already. been. trampled. in. the



dust for alleged crooked decisions." .


 

________________________


 
Source: The Princeton Union. Princeton, Minn. October 7, 1909, p. 4.
Link: http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83016758/1909-10-07/ed-1/seq-4/#date1=10%2F06%2F1909&sort=state&date2=10%2F07%2F1909&searchType=advanced&language=&sequence=0&index=46&words=baseball&proxdistance=5&rows=50&ortext=baseball&proxtext=&phrasetext=&andtext=&dateFilterType=range&page=2

Aaron Hicks is only 25. Entering the All-Star Break he has yet to have his 700th plate appearance, and he’s played in just over 180 games. And yet, he’s already dropped switch-hitting for a brief time period, has been called out by former manager Ron Gardenhire and assistant general manager Rob Antony for showing up to the ballpark and not knowing who the starting pitcher was that day, and after not making the team out of spring training this year the Star Tribune reported that he might not get another shot. “We probably haven’t seen the last of Aaron Hicks,” wrote LaVelle E. Neal, who has covered the Twins since 1998, “but the Twins’ expectations have fallen so far for the 14th overall pick from 2008 that his future could end up as a fourth outfielder.”
 
Hicks ended up resurfacing with the Twins, getting a call up in mid-May that lasted until he went on the disabled list in mid-June. Since returning from injury on July 7, he’s hitting .323 with two doubles, one triple, two home runs and seven RBI in 10 games. With Byron Buxton on the DL, he is the team’s starting center fielder, already has a Willie Mays-esque catch and is starting to show everyone why he was a first round selection in 2008. “I feel good at the plate,” he says, simply. “I’m just trying to make solid contact and drive some balls into the gap.”
 
He struggles to articulate exactly what is behind the turnaround. It is not as though he got traded or changed positions. Hicks added a leg kick, which has improved his timing and power, but it’s not all mechanical when it comes to big league production. “Up until this level, it’s physical,” Double-A manager Doug Mientkiewicz told the Star Tribune in June. “Past this level, it’s mental.”
 
“Our whole ordeal here is you have to prepare today as if you’re gonna be in Minnesota tomorrow, so you don’t want to have to all of a sudden change your routine and change your preparation,” says Triple-A hitting coach Tim Doherty, a person Hicks credits with turning his career around. “He learned how to do that. He learned how to study film, and he learned how to get his routine in, his work in, prior to learning how to take care of his body day-in and day-out.
 
“As far as his talents go, at some point in time the word ‘raw’ is gonna have to come off. You can’t have raw ability your entire career,” he continues. “You go up to the big leagues, and the first time you don’t know what to expect, you don’t know what they’re doing, so you gotta learn. … Seek out the veteran players: They’ll talk to you, they’re gonna help you, and they’re there and they’re a veteran because they listen and they learn. When players do that, like Hicksy’s been doing now, that’s huge.”
 
Torii Hunter has been a major influence on him in the Twins clubhouse. The nearly 40-year-old outfielder has helped Hicks with everything from workouts to diet to routine. “He’s always picking my brain,” says Hunter, who came up with the Twins as a center fielder at the turn of the century and had his fair share of call-ups and demotions before establishing himself as a major leaguer. “He reminds me of myself, that’s what I did with Kirby and Paul Molitor when I was younger and they were older.”
 
Hicks has always had talent: It’s why he was drafted in the first round, it’s why the Twins felt comfortable trading away Denard Span and Ben Revere in the same summer, and it’s why he was able to reach the majors at age 23. “Hicks is one of the most athletic outfielders in the high school ranks and perhaps in the (2008) draft class,” read one scouting report on him. “He’s got a ton of tools, but will he learn how to use them? Someone is sure to take that chance.”
 
“I definitely think that this guy, if he puts it together and gets his mind right, it’s gonna be special,” echoes Hunter. “[it’s] knowing when you step on the field you have the most athletic ability on the field. It’s like an inner-cockiness: You don’t speak it, you just go out and do it and try to prove it and tell yourself, ‘Hey, you’re better than everybody on this field.’”
 
The Twins ultimately took a chance on Hicks, of course, and they’ve given him ample opportunity to make the most of his ability since calling him up two years ago. Looking back on it, Twins general manager Terry Ryan admits that his promotion was premature, because while he made his fair share of spectacular plays in the outfield, he finished his rookie year with a .192/.259/.338 line in 81 games and wasn’t much better at the plate in his sophomore season (.215/.341/.274). “If somebody’s concerned about Hicks not getting a chance, I’ve got to talk to them,” says Ryan, elevating his voice. “If you’re talking about Hicks, you’re talking about the wrong guy. He’s had a lot of chances and he’s doing something with it here recently, but we’ve been criticized to the extreme about [his] chances.”
 
Throughout the process the Twins had to strike a delicate balance, allowing Hicks — or any prospect — enough leeway to fight through his struggles without giving him a sense of entitlement. “We try to make sure they get every opportunity,” says Ryan of his young players. “Aaron’s had a lot of chances. It’s his turn. It’s time to step up, and he’s done a nice job here.”
 
Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky says the biggest difference between now and a year ago, when Hicks was muddled and briefly dropped switch-hitting, is his maturity level. “He feels confident, you can tell,” Brunansky says. “He doesn’t get frustrated, to where if it’s a bad at-bat … he can put that aside a little bit, we can get good conversations about what the next at-bat’s gonna do, and he’s moved on.
 
“We can call it growth, we can call it maturity — whatever it is, whatever terminology you want to use for it, it’s nice to see, because the talent and skillset of that kid is good.”
 
“I think it all came down to being able to do what I needed to do to become the player that I want to be, and it’s kind of just — I tried something new. I tried leg-kicking, and it’s been working out good for my timing and hitting in the big leagues,” says Hicks, who worked on the technique with Brunansky in spring training. “A lot of it just came with time: Being up here and having to deal with the grind and having to deal with failure so much. I mean, it’s all about just going out there and trying to have fun and learn, and learn as fast as possible to be able to have success.”
 
“All of that, and all of the curves that these guys go through with the ups and downs from the injuries and that type of thing, that all builds on all their mentalities,” says Doherty. “It makes them stronger, it makes them understand that when you take that away from them, they realize how hungry they need to be to get back with their teammates and start competing and try to win their division, and then try to win the pennant, and then try to win the World Series.”
 
Doherty says that Hicks told him, “I should be in center field. I should be helping those guys win,” when he was in Triple-A during his rehab stint, which brings up another aspect of Hicks’ development: He’s on a winning team for the first time in his major league career. So while he wasn’t traded, he did experience a change of scenery this season. “Does it matter? It makes it a whole lot easier. Absolutely,” says Doherty. “You’re going to a team that’s competing and trying to catch the Royals and right in the playoff hunt. Yeah, that makes it easier. But it doesn’t make it easier as a player: You still have to compete, regardless of if you’re in first place or last place.”
 
“He has that winning spirit, we’re winning, and he’s a part of winning right now,” says Hunter. “This last week, this last week or so, he’s shown all the ability that the Twins thought he had drafting him in the first round. This is what he’s capable of doing, and if he can do this consistently — you’re gonna have your rough times, that’s the way it goes — if he can bounce back every time, and make adjustments like he’s doing, he’s gonna be playing major league baseball for a long time.
 
“He’s only 25.”
 
This article was originally posted on the Cold Omaha section of 105 The Ticket.
 
Tom Schreier writes for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha. Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports.
 
Follow Tom on Twitter @tschreier3.

My wife phoned to say someone at work was looking to sell a couple of bleacher tickets at Fenway. So, mere hours later (well, 30 is "mere", no?), I was on the Worcester commuter train, getting off at Yawkey Station.
 
Fun game versus the Marlins. Tied 1-1 for a long while, then the Sox starter Miley tired at around the 100-pitch mark and the score became 3-1 at the seventh inning stretch. But the home team came right back and loaded the bases against Cishek in relief of Haren, with a single, walk, and infield error, and (after LOOGY Dunn got what seemed a key strikeout) with two outs Xander Bogaerts fouled off several pitches from Carter "Not Matt" Capps before coming through with a single on a full count that cleared the bases for the 4-3 lead that turned out to be the final score. The eighth inning stretch (Sweet Caroline) is always fun, and with the Sox in the lead the mood was bubbly.
 
Sandoval facing Haren:
 

 
Kazoo, the Fenway fan:
 

 
Mary and me:
 

Over the weekend, I got to enjoy a couple GCL games of the GCL Minnesota Twins and GCL Boston Red Sox. Best part of these games are the closeness to the action you can get as well as VIPs lurking around. This weekend, Top Scout Mike Ratcliff was seen timing and evaluating the new talent. The following links are Youtube Videos that I took over the weekend of the prospects.
 
 

 
The following are the pitching lines and charts for the 6/26/15 game, followed by video on Travis Blankenhorn, Trey Cabbage, Kerby Camacho, Lean Marrero, Brian Olson as well as pitcher Callan Pearce

 

 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
The Twins ended up losing the game 6-1 but the bullpen performed well.
 
The following day, Saturday morning I caught the Red Sox vs Twins on Field One at the Twins' Centurylink Sports Complex. Williams Ramirez started the game off and went a strong 4 innings. Here the the pitcher's stat lines and pitch counts followed by video at bat compilation of Travis Blankenhorn, Trey Cabbage, Lewin Diaz, Roberto Gonzalez, and Bryant Hayman as well Rich Condeelis and Andrew Vasquez
 
Here is the pitcher's stat line and pitch count:

 

 
 

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 
 

 

The Twins ended up losing Satuday's game 3-2 and was quite a pitcher's duel for the most part.

Def. jour·ney·man \-mən\
: a worker, performer, or athlete who is experienced and good but not excellent
 
In the nomenclature of the game we have many names for the journeyman. On competitive teams we typically use the more endearing terms: role player, utility man, pinch hitter, defensive replacement. But on a losing team we tend to describe them in less complementary ways: placeholder, seat warmer, has been.
 
A journeyman’s value is not typically described with season stats or career slash lines, but in single moments; when they get a key hit, make an outstanding defensive play or simply move a runner over to allow the franchise player a chance to hit with a player in scoring position.
 
With a team like the Twins that is filled with players that meet the definition of journeyman, fans are quick to dismiss their value and instead pine for the brilliant prospect filled with promise and potential who is waiting in the wings.
 
Trevor Plouffe must have a clock ticking in his head. Intellectually he knows that his days as the Twins starting third baseman are numbered. Conversely, his competitive instincts keep pushing him to keep his job and show the world that he is not simply a placeholder for super prospect Miguel Sano.
 
Spring training and the first two weeks of the season were a struggle for Trevor. Despite coming off his best major league season, he had to overcome a late season freak injury, his average was firmly planted below .200 and the team had not started strong out of the gate. Anyone in his shoes would start to look in the rear view mirror to see if Mr. Sano was gaining on him.
 
Because of all he was up against, Plouffe’s walk-off homer in extra innings on Friday must have been particularly sweet.
 
The cathartic reaction from Plouffe as he screamed at his teammates in the dugout during his homerun trot was a message to us fans. He is saying, I too was once a hot prospect, a player with potential. While it hasn’t worked out for me just yet – I am still here. I have worked my ass off and I don’t intend to go quietly into the night.
 
So today I take my hat off to Trevor Plouffe, Shane Robinson, and Jordon Schaefer and the other journeyman who may never make an All-Star game or get the long term multi-million dollar deal. Get after it fellas, I respect your commitment. Hang in there, celebrate every success and know that when you do yield to that young super prospect, there is one fan out there who respects what you bring to the game.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
-------------
Today the Minnesota Twins hosted the Pittsburgh Pirates at Hammond Stadium. As usual, before the game I trotted by the minor league fields that today were hosting a celebrity from the baseball world:
 

 
A dad watching his kid pitch a bullpen:
 

 
And then walk with him after he was done:
 

 
Interesting enough, not many fans had an idea of who the dad was. And he was about as humble as a baseball superstar as I have seen. He had his picture taken with fans and shook his head and smiled when I told him that his kid has a great arm, from one dad to another. And Derek Rodriguez does have a great arm. He was tossing nice crisp fastballs when he got his mechanics right. But his mechanics were all over the place to begin and his pitching coach was there talking to him pitch after pitch, and Derek incorporated the feedback. I think that making the transition to pitching will be hard, but I think that he has the determination, the tools and the family and Twins support to do it. Will likely start 2015 in Extended Spring Training, but I fully expect him to see him progress fast.
 
Every Spring Training there are a couple of players who are relatively unknown, but do make an impression to me. The first one I will point this year is Jack Barrie, a 19 year old Aussie First Baseman who made his pro debut last season with the GCL Twins. This kid has Kennys Vargas written all over him. Great plate presence, quick wrists, one to keep an eye on. And I bet you never have heard of him.
 
Back to the big boys playing the Pirates. Kyle Gibson started for the Twins and after his recent discussion about adding velocity, I was betting that we'd see at least one 95 mph fastball on the (2 mph or so) fast Hammond Stadium radar, and we did. The problem with Kyle today was that his 93-95 mph fastballs were lacking the movement and the downward break his 90-92 mph fastballs did. Also his slider was not there (he threw 2 in the first innings, including the first HR to Cervelli). In the third inning, he seems that he threw all sliders and change ups. At least he was working the kinks out. No worries about Gibson.
 
In a tale of two who are fighting for the 25th man spot on the roster. Eduardo Nunez beat out a cleanly-fielded ground ball to the SS (our own Pedro Florimon, btw) for an infield hit and managed to steal second two pitches afterwards. Shane Robinson (who is fighting for the same spot,) drove him in with a scorcher on the first base line and then, after Dozier was hit by a pitch to fill first, was thrown out at third on a double steal that found Dozier safe and sound at second. Robinson had some decent plays at left today, but I still think that Nunez is probably fighting with Herrmann (who did not play) for this spot as is now...
 
Back to arms. Blaine Boyer came in to pitch in the middle of an inning and was effective. And then pitched another inning and was effect, but in his second inning his velocity picked up a few notches. His fastball moved from 89-90 all the way to 93-94, his curve from 73 to 76 and he threw some change ups at mid 80s (all well commanded, btw,) which made me think that indeed there might be some pitchers who are different (and better) if they come up with no outs and no ons on the top of an inning. Michael Tonkin and Stephen Pryor followed. Tonkin, who have since been opted, topped up at 94 and so did Pryor, who really did some nifty glovework in a comebacker, which made me think whether there are any real fastball pitchers left on the roster, since that gun is 2 mph or so fast and these 3 are pitchers touted to hit high 90s. Maybe too early, but still somewhat concerning...
 
In another note, it was great to see Toper Anton again, and meet Steve Lein and John Bonnes. See you guys around the next few days.

I had the pleasure of watching today's game in person at Hammond Stadium, versus the portion of the St Louis Cardinal roster they deemed worth putting on a bus (hint: no stars). This writeup ought to be pretty quick, because it's one of those rare games where the box score plus a little inference pretty much tells you all you need to know.
 
But first, I'll mention that we didn't have tickets to start with, and didn't want to feed the scalpers - but a little bird had told us that tickets get freed up just before most games - seats that are controlled by the two teams (for players' relatives etc) until they are sure they aren't needed. So we got there 2.5 hours early and waited half an hour, and sure enough we wound up getting $29 seats nearly behind home plate on the third base side up near the top. Seems high priced for spring games but the world is like that now. Just a little tip for those of you wanting to attend games.
 

 
Kyle Gibson was as good as his line score would suggest - batters were not able to distinguish his offspeed offerings and were getting fooled by them. Two hits, no runs, four strikeouts, in four innings. A little shaky in the third, followed up by a strong fourth. Very hopeful sign.
 
I've not been a strong proponent of Tim Stauffer when the news broke that the Twins had signed him, and nothing today improved my view on him. He got through his first inning with no drama and three ground balls, but his next two innings showed he was no mystery to the Cardinal batters and they piled up four Very Earned Runs in that span. I thought it was silly to envision him as a competitor for the fifth starter spot - now put him back in low-leverage situations like the Padres had him, is my advice.
 
The rest of the game was your usual parade of relievers, who did OK but nothing great, allowing two more runs in total. The last run was aided by some shoddy left field work by Nunez who allowed an extra base by not being able to decide whether to dive for a flare or not, winding up letting it drop but then not corralling the ball to keep the baserunner from getting to third, whereupon he scored on a sac fly. Bad luck to Fien I guess, but he did allow the first hit legitimately. This run was the one that tied it at 6-6, which was the eventual final score.
 
Conversely the Twins scored 5 early runs, three in the third capped by a Brian Dozier two-run homer to left following a Schafer RBI, and two more in the fourth that drove off starter Carlos Martinez when Suzuki doubled down the third base line. Nice. After that the Card bullpen was effective, though they let in another run in the seventh when Herrmann drove in Argenis Diaz. (I was surprised to see Herrmann playing first after Mauer was lifted, so I guess they really are grooming him to be super-sub, and thus likely to be the 25th man on Opening Day.)
 
Twins fans at Hammond today were outnumbered by Cardinal fans. They were courteous but toward the end of the game the repeated rallies had them cheering their favorites on, and the Twins fans were too "Minnesota Nice" (I guess) to put up much of a fuss.
 
The game ended on Nunez being thrown out at the plate trying to score on a short single to left, having been waved in by coach Glynn. With 2 out and weak hitters now in the lineup it was the obvious call for the situation, as all choices at that point had become low percentage and this was the most entertaining one to try. I saw it as him being out by at least two steps, leaving matters at 6-6, and it being Spring they did not go to extras. Everyone departed in a good mood - perhaps as in soccer, a "friendly" played to a tie.
 

Are we confident in the Twins handling and developing of Alex Meyer? Does he need more time in AAA? Should he have been called up last June?
 
We don't really know what has prevented the Twins from calling up Alex Meyer. We speculate it is his walk rate. How unusual is it for a pitcher with his stuff to give up a lot of walks in AAA? How would other teams respond?
 
Do all teams wait for their pitchers with good stuff to manage their walk rates?
 
Here are some pitchers and their walks per 9 in AAA prior to coming to the majors.
 
Hernandez 4.9
Price 4.6
Lester 4.3
Samardzija 4.2
Ventura 3.9
Kershaw (no AAA but AA was 3.9 in 16 starts)
Kluber 3.9
Scherzer 3.7 (4.9 in AA)
 
It isn't unusual for pitchers that throw hard and have good stuff to walk batters in AAA.
 
Why does their walk per 9 go down in the majors?
 
I am not sure. I would imagine that better hitters put the ball in play before a walk results. AAA hitters may be experienced enough to lay off a pitch they can't hit or foul it off. Longer counts and more walks result. It could be the quality of the umpiring.
 
High walk rates does not stop other teams from bringing up their pitchers with good stuff to the majors. I think some teams would have brought Alex Meyer to the majors last June.
 
Is it the Twins plan to wait until Meyer brings his walk rate down before bringing him up to the majors? I hope not. That might not happen until his stuff isn't as good and the AAA hitters start putting the ball in play more often.

The Minnesota Twins' front office is going to be faced with making some difficult decisions this offseason - decisions they are woefully ill-prepared to make.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/GardenhireBrunansky2012.jpg
Ron Gardenhire and Tom Brunansky (photo: Knuckleballs)

Many professional sports organizations change their on-field management at least as often as they change accounting firms. It's just part of the way they do business. When you lose more games than you win for a couple years in a row, you change managers/head coaches and even front office leadership.
 
It just becomes second nature. Much the way swimming becomes second nature to anyone who has spent much time in the water.
 
But the very idea of changing field management/coaching staff must, for the Twins ownership and front office, seem as incomprehensible as diving off a cliff in to a river would be to someone who doesn't know how to swim.
 

 
For those of you who don't know how that scene of Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid turned out, both outlaws survived their jump and their trip down river just fine and lived happily ever after (at least until they decided to move to Bolivia).
 
The most famous quote from that movie scene is, "the fall will probably kill you." But, for the Twins' purposes, I'd focus on Butch's earlier point. "We've got to, otherwise we're dead."
 
I think the same is true of the Twins if they foolishly decide to keep the status quo regarding their field management.
 
I know that changing managers and coaching staff just is not something the people who run the Twins are comfortable with.
 
They know the guys they have. They may not be winning much, but they HAVE won in the past, so they MIGHT win again, no matter how hopelessly unlikely that may seem to be at the moment.
 
If the people who run the Twins decide to (shudder) make changes, there is no guarantee that the new guys will be any better. After all, how many people in the Twins front office have actually gone swimming in the deep waters that go along with the process of interviewing candidates for a Major League manager?
 
Figuratively, they don't know how to swim!
 
At some point, though, they're going to have to realize that NOT taking that leap means the organization is almost certain to continuing their current death spiral. Once you consider that the worst thing that can happen when you take that big jump off a cliff is the same thing that's going to happen if you don't, it's really not that hard to just holler, "Ohhhhh (expletive)," and make the leap.
 
Once you've taken the leap and decided you will not simply go on doing business the same way you have for the past three decades, you can get down to the business of figuring out who is best suited to turn the next group of raw-but-talented young ballplayers in to a contending Major League team.
 
Maybe it's someone on the Twins' current big league bench, such as Paul Molitor or Tom Brunansky. Maybe it's one of the organization's excellent full-season minor league managers (all four of which guided their respective team to a winning record in 2014, by the way). Maybe it's someone from outside the Twins organization altogether.
 
But first things first.
 
If they haven't already, the Twins' decision makers need to conclude that there is literally nothing that can happen that would be any worse than continuing to fight it out with the status quo.
 
To do so would send a terrible message to a fan base who simply will not tolerate another do-nothing offseason and continue to buy tickets for a 2015 season that does not come with the benefit of All-Star Game tickets.
There is a lot of talent set to arrive at Target Field in the next couple years. Names, both familiar and unfamiliar to Twins fans, like Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Berrios, Polanco, Gordon, Burdi, Kepler, Harrison, Kanzler, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Turner, Garver, Walker and many more, could well become cornerstones of the next great Minnesota Twins team.
 
The class of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Baker, et al, has been wasted. We could discuss "why" this class failed to bring a championship to Minnesota, but that's pointless.
 
What matters now is making sure that the upcoming class is not similarly wasted and that process begins with asking ourselves who would be the best choices as manager and field coaches to get the most of their talent.
 
I'm not sure who that person is, though I certainly have some favorites among the likely possibilities.
 
What I think has become abundantly clear, however, is that manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson are not the right choices.
 
The decision to dismiss them is not easy for a front office like that of the Twins.
 
I respect that, actually. Letting go of loyal and, at times, effective employees should not be easy - certainly not as easy as it seems to be for many owners and General Managers in professional sports.
 
But sometimes, it's absolutely necessary.
 
Even the most devoted fans of Gardy and Andy in the front office must, by now, be having a hard time envisioning that duo effectively leading the upcoming group of 20-year-olds to championships.
 
With fresh talent, fresh eyes and fresh approaches are necessary. It's possible (and perhaps even quite likely) that Gardenhire and Anderson could provide that fresh approach to another organization. I hope they can (as long as it's not in the AL Central), because I think they're good men who know something about baseball.
 
But just as a young Tom Kelly was the perfect fit for a young group of Twins in the mid-late 1980s, it's time to find new management to work with the next wave of young Twins.
 
There's no reason to wait another year, prolonging the inevitable.
 
It's time for the Twins' front office and ownership to take the leap off that cliff and live to fight another day.
 
(Just don't move the team to Bolivia. That would not end well.)