Jdosen

I've been saying this to people for a long time now. I can absolutely see him leaving the Twins after/during this season and somehow ending up on the Rays/A's/Blue Jays/some other smart team as a corner IF/OF guy who almost exclusively plays against leftys. Starts against lefty starters and pinch hits once a lefty is brought in from the bullpen. I think if he is managed right (i.e. the way I just explained), he can be a valuable role player for a few years.

Per Twitter, $20M is the max posting fee, and ties go to the team with the lowest winning percentage. I wonder if this means the Twins could be in on Tanaka. They certainly have a golden opportunity. The only 3 teams that could tie with us and win this offseason are Houston, Miami, and the White Sox, with the Cubs being tied with us for the 4th worst record in the league. Maybe I'm just dreaming, but I'd love to make a run at Tanaka here, as the plan is to not have a record this bad again for a long time.

Correia wasn't the total disaster that I thought he would be (and I did think that, as I wagered $100 that his ERA at the end of the season would be 4.50+, and it was as late in the season as early September). I will happily say that in 2013, he held up his end of the bargain and was of value to the Twins. I won't quite as easily say that he will repeat it again in 2014. Upon looking at his Fangraphs player profile, I noticed that he stranded an awful lot of baserunners in '13--76.1% compared to his career rate of 71.9% and a league-average rate of around 70 to 72%, depending on the season. I, for one, don't really believe that stranding runners on base is a skill, just as I don't believe RBIs are a skill. I think it has more to do with luck and random distribution of outs/hits than anything else. Long story short, I think that number regresses back to the mean, which is to say he will strand between 70 and 72% of runners. In fact, the Steamer projection system really believes he will regress in that regard, projecting a LOB% of 65.9%. This spells trouble for Correia in 2014. I certainly could be wrong. I have been before, many times. But, I'm still not sold on Correia for 2014. TR was half-right on Correia. Whether that was due to scouting or just pure variance of his career numbers, 2013 was good. And at $4.5M, he was worth the money he was paid. However, if you want to buy into what I just wrote, there's reason to believe he may not be as good in 2014. Now, at the current going rate for +1 WAR which is believed to be around $5M and trending upward, it would be tough for him to be a net loss at $5.5M in 2014. I guess what I'm arguing is that Terry Ryan has gotten about what he paid for in this deal so far, and likely will again in 2014, which is to say he paid for a slightly above replacement-level starter. I really wasn't planning on writing a novel here, but I guess I got carried away

Alex Meyer is on his way. And as for the second one--Kohl Stewart in 2016? Nolasco is a nice reliable option. Perhaps Gibson in a couple of years is another one as well. In reality, I don't think we will compete in '14, but will make division runs in '15, '16. If we want to make a run at a pennant, a trade for another front of the rotation stalwart is an option as well. I really like the foundation that has been laid in the past few days though.

If the Twins manage him correctly, I think this could turn into a pretty valuable signing. His propensity to give up HR's has been beaten to the death on this board. Depending on how lucky he can get with HR/FB rate and what kind of defensive outfield is put out there when he pitches, this could be a really good thing going forward. It should be noted that his career GroundBall% is 33.6%, which is to say that he gives up a ton of flyballs, and a lower than league average amount of ground balls. That being said, I think that during his starts, it is really, really important to field as good of a defensive outfield as possible. His starts would be good days to get Arcia in the DH spot if his defense doesn't improve, and a good day to get Willingham a day off.

Can this Cano guy pitch? I'll hang up and listen.

I'm leaning towards being in favor of a Hughes signing if the duration and dollars are right. I'd be alright with taking a chance on him for 2/20, but not super enthusiastic. Everyone keeps mentioning that he is a perfect match with Target Field because he is always falling victim to the HR, but per Fangraphs, his career HR/FB rate is 10.2% and last year in Pinstripes, he posted an 11.1% HR/FB. I think that sentiment is overblown. On the other hand, over the course of his career, his FIP is a full run lower on the road than it has been at Yankee Stadium--4.80 at home to 3.78 on the road. I just contradicted myself. I feel like Dan Dierdorf. Another factor to consider is the defense behind him in spacious Target Field. I think his performance could have a lot of variability depending on what defensive outfield the Twins trot out there next year. I think he would fare just fine with a defense of Hicks and Buxton occupying two of the spots, but could be in big trouble if we are seeing the lumbering tandem of Willingham and Arcia in the corners.

This is a point I made as well. Very pleased to see that the wallet is open, and very hopeful that this isn't the last of it.

Like the move, don't love it until I see details on years and dollars. He's had a low HR/FB rate the past 3 years, and I think pitching in Target Field will only help sustain that. One thing that somewhat alarms me is that he is always seeming to underperform his FIP and xFIP, as Seth stated earlier, but his ERA seems to be getting closer and closer to those numbers in recent years, so it may just be regression. Any way, he is the best pitcher in the organization immediately, and it certainly is a step in the right direction to fixing this abomination of a pitching staff. And I would imagine we didn't get a bargain, so it's a clear sign the wallet is open.

I personally don't have a lot of interest in Arroyo if it goes 3 years. 2/26 is as high as I hope the Twins go on him, and I sincerely hope he isn't the big free agent splash. I do think there is potential for a bounce back year from him here, as he posted a 14.0% HR/FB rate in Cincinnati last year, nearly 3 points higher than his career 10.9% rate. I think Target Field certainly would help suppress that as well. Signing him would be a risk, because every workhorse is a workhorse until he isn't, but it would be a good coup for the right contract. I certainly hope he isn't the best guy the Twins sign this offseason. Color me skeptical, however.

Frustrating, but in the grand scheme of things, it's not the worst thing that could have happened. When I saw on Twitter "Twins top prospect test positive" (paraphrasing), I was horrified it was one of the big 3, but thank goodness it's not. Obviously you'd like to avoid this thing, but better this year than later on. And better to have it happen before the season starts than in the belly of the beast. He will still get a big-league invite to ST and get all that work in, no?

My predictions: 1. Dozier falls back to Earth, as his HR/FB rate levels off. His middling play along with Rosario's strong play in the minors works out the "controversy" on its own. 2. Correia will throw his last pitch as a Twin before July 1, and will carry a 5+ ERA out the door as his ERA will more closely resemble his FIP. 3. Plouffe will be gone as soon as Sano comes up for good (I know, really going out on a limb here), and will be immediately snatched up by a team who more closely looks at advanced stats (my prediction is Blue Jays or Red Sox), and mashes for the next couple of years as the short side of a platoon at 3B or in the outfield. 4. Glen Perkins will be an All-Star. 5. Mauer's slash line will rise in all 3 categories, and he will have the highest OBP in the AL, as well as play excellent defense. Fans will still disparage him for not hitting enough #dingers. 6. Bronson Arroyo will "headline" the Twins free agent class, and post a sub-1.5 WAR in 2014.

Pierzynski owns a career 94 wRC+ and is going to be 37 years old. I think he still has value, but it is not as a DH.

I like the move as I think the value hit of moving to 1B full time is worth the lowered risk of more concussions.

Nothing to be worked up over, yet still eyeroll- and laughter-inducing.

I disagree on the point of moving Dozier back to SS to free up a spot for Rosario. A lot of Dozier's value was in playing a sufficient 2B. His bat isn't so good it could outweigh the defensive value he would lose by moving to SS. I predict that if he was the everyday SS, he would be worth less than 1 WAR. Instead, I think we should keep playing Dozier until either he shows he isn't as good as last year, or until Rosario shows he's ready. If the latter is the case, you can trade one of them for an arm. The situation will work itself out.

I was at that game too. Probably my favorite Twins game I've ever attended. I'll always have a soft spot for Baker because of that start.

Sano will not be promoted as a Sept call up if Terry Ryan values all his 40-man roster spots, and I think he does. Sano won't be added until he has to be.

That is certainly possible and the Twins probably intend to see what's out there as far as demand for Willingham rather than intend to sell no matter what. This is the most boring thing to day possible but, Willingham will probably be dealt if the Twins feel the return is worthwhile, and pulled back off waivers if not.

I hope we don't get rid of Josh here. Isn't smart business to trade him at his lowest value. Twins would be best suited to keep him and hope he bounces back next year and has value as a rental bat for a 2014 contender.

Is there a player anyone can think of that scrapped switch hitting this late in his career and went on to become a successful big-leaguer?

I sweat out every start because I made a $100 bet with one of my buddies at school that his ERA would be 4.50 or higher. Aside from that bet and continuing to follow Brian Dozier's at bats, this team is the least compelling it's been (now that Mauer is injured) as I can ever remember.

Not that I think he should be moved off 3B by any means, but if the Twins were to have Sano make a change, wouldn't it behoove them to move him to RF, where his incredible arm strength wouldn't be wasted?

If we're really talking about what my dream looks like, you can pencil Jose Abreu in for Morneau. Other than that, looks like a very enjoyable club to follow on a daily basis, much unlike the one we have on our hands right now.

Good point, I guess I didn't take into account the strength of the free agent class this offseason. Still I don't think I'm on board with giving Ellsbury a boatload of money. It seems to me it would be spending for the sake of spending--which in reality is probably not realistic at all considering the Twins have never shown that they will spend a legitimate amount of money in free agency anyways.