KGB

The MLB draft is not nearly as popular as the NFL or NBA drafts. In 2021, 12.6 million people tuned in to watch Roger Goodell announce the first round of draft picks. Over the last 10 years, the NBA draft has had between 2 and 4 million viewers. The MLB however, had barely over 1 million viewers in 2021. However, the MLB draft remains very important.
 
Since 1965 (when the first MLB draft was held), 9 of the Twins top 13 players in terms of WAR were drafted by the Twins. These players include Joe Mauer, Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Chuck Knoblauch, Gary Gaetti, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, Brian Dozier, and Corey Koskie. As you can see, most of our franchise’s best players were drafted by us and that stresses the importance of drafting well.
 
Without further ado, let’s jump in to checking in on our 2021 draft class

 
Round 1, Pick 26: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (NJ)

Chase Petty was one of the most electrifying players drafted in 2021. Petty was the third high school pitcher taken in the draft. High school pitchers are generally riskier selections than college pitchers just because they haven’t proven themselves at a higher level yet. 
 
Petty is worth the risk. He has a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and it has been up to 100 mph. He also has a firm slider that sits in the upper 80s and has a spin rate between 2600 and 2700 RPM. Lookout Landing does a great job breaking down Petty’s stuff and mechanics here. 
 
Petty is a high-octane arm who only throws three pitches, so I foresee him as the Twins closer of the future. Petty is one of the most exciting players in the Twins farm system, ranking as our 7th best prospect.
 
Petty saw very limited action in the 2021 minor league season, making 2 appearances (one start) for the FCL Twins in the Florida Complex League. Between these 2 appearances, he threw 5 innings, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits and one walk while striking out 6. He only faced 21 batters so obviously this is a small sample size, but Petty had a solid start to his professional baseball career. Look for Petty to make some noise in 2022.
 
Comp Round A, Pick 36: Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee HS (WI)

It is often said that shortstops are the best athletes on the field. Most MLB infielders were shortstops on their high school or college teams. It is always a good thing to have too many shortstops because you can move them around the field.
Seth Stohs wrote a great article about Noah Miller that really highlights everything about him. The Twins loved his makeup, athleticism, and rare ability to hit at a high level from both sides of the plate. In Miller's senior year of high school, he hit .608 with 6 home runs and 21 RBI’s. Miller currently ranks as the Twins number 13 prospect.
 
In Miller’s first taste of pro-ball, he was assigned to the FCL Twins and in 96 plate appearances, he slashed .238/.316/.369 with 3 doubles, a triple, and 2 home runs. He had 9 walks to 26 strikeouts and committed 4 errors out of 86 chances, good for a .952 fielding percentage.
 
Miller struggled in his first taste of pro ball this season but he was only an 18 year old and he still has a very bright future ahead of him.
 
Round 2, Pick 61: Steve Hajjar, LHP, Michigan

Steve Hajjar is a 6’5” 215 lb pitcher from the University of Michigan. He throws a fastball in the low 90s and it has been up to 95 mph. His best pitch is his changeup, and MLB Pipeline says that he does a very good job of selling his changeup with fastball arm speed, which can be very deceptive to hitters. Hajjar is ranked as the number 22 prospect in the Twins system.
 
Hajjar did not pitch professionally in 2021. In 81.2 innings at Michigan, he was 4-2 with a 3.09 ERA. His K/9 was very impressive at 12.2, while having a BB/9 of 3.2. He was named All-Big Ten Conference First Team. He also led the Big Ten in strikeouts.
 
Hajjar is a 21 year old so he will probably progress a little quicker through the minor leagues than Petty and Miller. Hajjar will be a fun prospect to watch develop and I am excited to hopefully see him at Target Field soon.
 
Round 3, Pick 98: Cade Povich, LHP, Nebraska

Cade Povich is a 6’3” 185 lb pitcher from the University of Nebraska. He has a fastball that tops out around 91 MPH. Povich does not have a whole lot available on him or his pitch repertoire, but he seems like a crafty lefty who really understands how to pitch.
 
Povich, initially from Bellevue West High School, went to South Mountain CC in Phoenix for one year and excelled. He went 10-1 with a 1.52 ERA before transferring to Nebraska. Along with Hajjar, Povich was also named All-Big Ten Conference First Team in 2021. He went 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA. He also had 9.8K/9 and 2.4BB/9.
 
In professional ball, Povich made one start with the FCL Twins and went 2 innings, allowing one hit and striking out 3. He also made 3 appearances for Low-A affiliate Fort Myers and pitched very well, compiling 8 innings and allowing only 1 earned run, 6 hits, 2 walks, and 2 HBP while striking out 16 (!!).
 
Povich was dominant in his limited 10 innings of work this year and he will definitely be a prospect to follow if he continues his success in the minors.
 
Round 4, Pick 128: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, Oklahoma State

Christian Encarnacion-Strand is a 6’0” 224 lb 3B from Oklahoma State University. Encarnacion-Strand has a very talented bat and extremely strong throwing arm. He is a little limited on his feet as the Twins will probably move him to 1B eventually.
 
Encarnacion-Strand, initially from Pleasant Hill, CA, went to Yavapai CC for his first two years of eligibility. At Yavapai, Encarnacion-Strand absolutely mashed, hitting .410 with 31 doubles and 33 home runs in just 81 career games. At Oklahoma State, he slashed .361/.442/.661 with 15 home runs and 66 RBI’s in his one year there. He was named Big 12 newcomer of the year and was unanimously selected to the All-Big Twelve Conference First Team.
 
In his first taste of professional baseball, Encarnacion-Strand slashed .391/.424/.598 with 4 home runs in 92 plate appearances for the Twins low-A affiliate Fort Myers. He did have 5 walks compared to 26 strikeouts, which could be an area of concern as he progresses, but he is still young and has shown a lot of potential with his bat so far. He will be a fun prospect to watch crush opposing pitching and hopefully he continues this impressive offensive start.
 
Round 5, Pick 159: Christian Macleod, LHP, Mississippi State

Christian Macleod is a 6’4” 227 lb LHP from Mississippi State University. Macleod has a fastball that ranges from 87 to 93 MPH but is very effective because he commands it well and tunnels it well with his best pitch, an upper 70s curveball with great depth.
 
Macleod is originally from Huntsville, Alabama. In his collegiate career at Mississippi State, Macleod went 10-6 with a 4.34 ERA. He had a 12.8K/9 and a 3.4BB/9. His ERA for 2021 was not great at 5.23, but before playoffs he had a 3.14 ERA and a few bad outings ballooned that ERA. In the shortened 2020 season, he was named Co-National Freshman Player of the Year by Collegiate Baseball Newspaper, going 4-0 with a 0.86 ERA.
 
Macleod only appeared in one game with the FCL Twins this season, going 1&⅔ innings, allowing no runs, one hit, and two walks while striking out 5. Macleod has a chance to be a back-end starting pitcher and he will be an interesting prospect to follow. If he adds some velocity, he could make a huge jump.
 
Round 6, Pick 189: Travis Adams, RHP, Sacramento State

Travis Adams is a 6’0” 195 lb RHP from Sacramento State. Contrary to what pitchers are becoming more of as strikeouts and walks are rising league wide, Adams is a control specialist who won’t blow anyone away with his strikeout numbers but he hardly walks anyone.
 
Adams is originally from Desert Hot Springs, California. In his collegiate career at Sacramento State, Adams went 10-6 with a 3.75 ERA. He had 7.75 K/9 and an impressive 1.49 BB/9. In 2021, the MLB average for BB/9 was 3.3, so Adams thrives in that area of the game.
 
Adams made one appearance for the FCL Twins, recording 4 outs while allowing 3 earned runs, 2 hits, 2 walks, and struck out 3. If Adams can improve his stuff he could be a good prospect for the Twins going forward.
 
Round 7, Pick 219: Jake Rucker, 3B, Tennessee

Jake Rucker is a 6’2” 185 lb 3B from the University of Tennessee. He was a very solid player at Tennessee and can play every position in the infield. He is very aggressive at the plate and solid in the field. Rucker lacks an elite trait so it might make it difficult for him to excel in pro ball, but he could be a solid player.
 
Rucker is originally from Greenbrier, Tennessee. In his collegiate career at Tennessee, he slashed .311/.388/.463 with 12 home runs and 96 RBI’s. In 2021, he really broke out. He had an OPS of .919 and had 21 doubles, 2 triples, and 9 home runs. He was named a 3rd team All-American this year and also garnered First Team All-SEC honors.
 
Rucker had 85 plate appearances at low-A Fort Myers this year, and slashed .265/.376/.324 with 2 doubles and 1 triple. These numbers are not other-worldly but they are a great starting point for an experienced versatile player like Rucker. It will be fun to see how he progresses into 2022. 
 
Round 8, Pick 249: Noah Cardenas, C, UCLA

Noah Cardenas is a 6’1” 190 lb catcher from UCLA. Cardenas is an outstanding defensive catcher. If Cardenas is going to make an impact in the league, he will have to improve at the plate. Right now he profiles like Ben Rortvedt, an outstanding defender who doesn't stand out offensively.
 
Cardenas is originally from Saugus, California. In his collegiate career at UCLA, he slashed .302/.407/.426 with 8 home runs and 30 extra base hits. His freshman year, he had an OPS of .976 in 58 games. In 2021, he had a .775 OPS. He also threw out 38% of base-stealers. Cardenas was named to the 2021 Pac-12 All-Conference Team.
 
Cardenas had 25 plate appearances with the FCL Twins in 2021. He went 6-20 with a double, a home run, and 3 walks. A very small sample size, but if Cardenas could get back to his 2019 self offensively and continues to dominate defensively, he could be a very nice prospect for the Twins.
 
Round 9, Pick 279: Patrick Winkel, C, Connecticut

Patrick Winkel is a 6’1'' 200 lb catcher from the University of Connecticut. Mlb dot com says that Winkel is a great athlete behind the plate with above average power but needs to improve his hit tool to use his power more regularly.
 
Winkel is originally from Orange, CT. In his career, he slashed .300/.359/.507 with 18 home runs and 41 extra base hits in 102 games. He also threw out 25% of potential base-stealers. Winkel was named All-BIG East Second Team in 2021. 
 
Winkel had 84 plate appearances at Low-A Fort Myers in 2021. He slashed .243/.369/.357 with 5 doubles and a home run. Beginning his career in Low-A shows that the Twins have confidence in where Winkel could go with his career. He struggled more than he did in college, but that is expected. Hopefully with some experience under his belt he can thrive in 2022.
 
Round 10, Pick 309: Ernie Yake, SS, Gonzaga

Ernie Yake is a 5’10” 175 lb SS from Gonzaga. Yake was a phenomenal shortstop at Gonzaga and played four years there. Yake is an older prospect, as he will be 24 years old at the start of the 2022 season.
 
Yake is originally from Bellingham, WA. In his career at Gonzaga, he slashed .320/.392/.419 with 6 home runs and 54 extra base hits. He also walked 71 times compared to only 53 strikeouts, so he controls the zone very well. In 2021, he was a national semifinalist for the Brooks Wallace award, given yearly to the best shortstop in college baseball.

Yake only had 26 plate appearances with the FCL Twins in 2021, slashing .227/.370/.318 with 2 doubles and 3 stolen bases. Yake will be fun to follow as he could be a Luis Arraez type hitter who puts the ball in play and rarely strikes out, while playing great defense at shortstop.
 
Part 2 highlighting our picks in rounds 11-20 will be coming soon
 
Thank you for reading and Go Twins!

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

Why am I seeing shots at Eddie Rosario all over TD? No, he is not our best player, but he is a good player. He gets 1.6 WAR this year according to Baseball Reference. He had a line of .276 /.300/.500/.800 this year and in the little aside on the MVP for this year he sounds like he should be LVP. Last year he was .288/.323/.479/.803 and the same site named him MVP. Now we want to trade him for a broken bat and one of the regular season rabbit balls. What is going on.
 
He is not HOF, but he is good. Who will take his place? Who will hit 32HRs and 109 RBIs if he is gone? Can we guarantee Larnach or Kiriloff are ready to do it? I hate having to be the one to speak up for Eddie, but someone has to question the madness.
 
Here are some highlights - go ahead 3-run home run https://www.mlb.com/video/eddie-rosario-homers-21-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field-luis-arraez-scores-m
 
Astudillo and Rosario lead win
 
Rosario 4 hit game https://www.mlb.com/video/rosario-homers-in-4-hit-game
 
Garver and Rosario lead win
 
Home Run 31 https://www.mlb.com/video/eddie-rosario-homers-31-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field
 
No he is not great - but he is good and if we choose to trade him it should not be because we want to get rid of him, but because we get a player who can do even more to help us win in the post season.

Two 30-year-old natives of Venezuela, both switch-hitters, both came to the majors as shortstops who became utility players and were to become free agents at the end of the 2018 season. I was looking at Baseball Reference and thought I would compare the former Twin with the current Twin. I was surprised how similar their numbers were.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzama01.shtml
 
While they are very similar, there are differences. First of all, Gonzalez has remained a versatile defender, while Escobar has become a fixture at third base for his new club. Neither are spending appreciable time in the middle of the diamond, this year Escobar has played one game at second base and Gonzalez has played one game at shortstop. Gonzalez has started mostly at third, but with the return of Miguel Sanó, he's started multiple games at first, third, left and right field.
 
Escobar has truly come into his own as a hitter. He hits in the middle of a good Arizona lineup and leads the National League in games, plate appearances and at-bats. So far, he is putting up numbers worthy of All-Star consideration. After an extremely slow start, Gonzalez has put up numbers in line with his career norms.
 
It is intriguing to consider what might have happened if the Twins had somehow managed to retain Escobar. Would he have been able to have the role that Gonzalez is filling? Would the Twins then converted Sanó to first base and not acquired Cron? For what it's worth, it appears that this has worked out for all concerned.

This is probably the most sustained successful era of any Twins team. This time period of the Twins made more playoff appearances and won more division titles, partly due to the expanded playoffs. The 1965 to 1970 Twins would have made the playoffs in 5 out of 6 years with a similar play-off format. These Twins teams won 6 division titles and made 7 trips to the playoffs in 9 years. But, as we know in all of those playoff years they made it to the ALCS just once and never to the World Series.
This team had amazing top end talent. They had arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana from 2004 to 2008. Joe Nathan was considered by most to be the 2nd best reliever in the game during this stretch behind the great Mariano Rivera. They had the best overall catcher in the game, the best hitting catcher in the game and perennial MVP candidate in Joe Mauer. They had one of the best first basemen who could do everything. Justin played solid first base, could hit for average and power plus drew 60 to 70 walks a year. Their centerfielder was also one of the best in the game. Torii Hunter was a human highlight reel on defense and averaged 25 homers a season from 2002 thru his final season with the Twins in 2007. They also had a very solid RFer in Michael Cuddyer who had 3 years of OPS+ over 120 during this stretch The bullpen had solid members during these years with guys like Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerier, JC Romero and others. The rotation was augmented by a Brad Radke on the back stretch of his career as well as the early years of high draft picks Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Matt Garza.
 
So what happened? How could a team with 5 of the absolute best players in baseball at their respective positions and some decent complement pieces never even make a World Series let alone win one? There are 2 reasons why. This team was doomed by injuries and some very bad personnel decisions.
 
Let's start with the injuries. The biggest one was when Francisco Liriano blew out his elbow in Aug of 2006. Liriano was having an amazing season before he was injured. 12-3, 2.16 ERA, only 6.6 hits and 2.4 walks per 9 for a WHIP of 1. He was fanning 10.7 per 9 innings. He was absolutely dominant including winning a showdown with the Houston Astros and Roger Clemens on national TV. On June 7th the Twins were 25-33. Liriano had just been put into the starting rotation a few weeks earlier. They than proceeded to go 25-2 over the next month with Liriano and Santana leading the way. Twins were on their way to winning 96 games this year. This team absolutely wins the World Series over Detroit or St Louis that season if Liriano stays healthy. Liriano would have been able to combine with Santana for a dynamic one two punch for the next several seasons. They would have led the rotation that the Twins could have rounded out with the likes of Baker and Garza. Liriano also could have taken over Santana's place as ace once Santana started to decline.
 
The second big injury happened a few years before this but definitely not only impacted the 2006 season but this entire era as well as some of the personnel decisions that doomed these teams. A lot of people forget or don't realize how good Jason Kubel was as a minor leaguer. His minor league stats are on par with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Jason was a 12th rd pick by the Twins in 2000 out of high school. In his 1st full season at Low A Quad Cities he slashed .321/.380/.521 with 26 doubles and 14 homers and didn't turn 20 until the season was almost half over. He had nearly as many walks (41) as strikeouts (48). He really busted out in 2004. At AA New Britain he hit .377/.453/.667 for an OPS of 1.119. He was just as good when promoted to AAA Rochester hitting .343/.398/.560. His AAA power stats projected to 50 doubles and 29 homers over a full season. He only struck out 10.7% of the time and walked .8.9% of the time. He was also a very good athlete stealing 16 bases in those 90 games. In the Arizona Fall League that year Kubel suffered a horrific knee injury during a collision while chasing a pop up. Kubel would miss all of 2005. Kubes went on to have a solid career peaking in 2009 with 28 homers and a .907 OPS. His minor league career showed that his best season may have been closer to his prime averages instead of a borderline outlier season. The 2006 team gave 677 at bats to Lew Ford, Jason Tyner and Shannon Stewart as outfielders. A healthy 24 year old Kubel in his 2nd full season would have dwarfed there stats while also playing a solid left field. The Twins would struggle to get production from LF for the next several season including using a much less athletic Kubel there. This injury not only affected Twins teams in 2005 thru 2008 but it also led them to make a trade to fill the void in LF. I will cover this trade along with a few other disastrous personnel decisions in part 2.
There is no doubt in my mind that the 2006 Twins would have been World Champs if Liriano and Kubel don't get injured. They also would have been set up to contend for additional championships in subsequent years with a healthy and dynamic Kubel and Liriano.

So the computer guys told us this would be smart, we see the trend and we jump on it. Use relievers every day! Let's look at a couple simple stats that are within my grasp. 162 games - average reliever use per game now 3 - put in an opener and it might be 4, but lets not worry about those games where Giminez came in or other extended innings. Just 162 games times three - 486 relief appearances. So we carry 13 pitchers, 5 are starters. 8 relief pitchers divided into 486 means 60 relief appearances per pitcher - forget those who are so valuable that they are out more often.
 
Check out historical use on Baseball Reference - https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Pitcher#Historical_Usage and you can see the various trends in pitching from the every other game starters of the 1800s to the four man rotation and lots of complete games to five man rotation and a growing requirement for relief pitchers. The more pitchers the less they are used and the more relief we need. Tommy John surgery increases, pitchers are using pitch counts but no one knows whether it is the pitch count or the frequency of pitching that matters. How did Warren Spahn and Juan Marichal and all those great pitchers survive? Must be some stat there that can answer.
 
Trends have always made us smarter. Remember when Coca Cola came out with New Coke and soon the non-stat drinkers rejected it as well as Crystal Pepsi and its clear cola. Or maybe your family had an Edsel - talk about a car of the future! Or more recently we had Netflix divide into Netflix and Quikster - don't remember - understandable. The streaming only branch was flushed down the stream.
 
There was the Apple Newton that was an instant success followed by an instant failure, it just did not deliver, kind of like the sixth man in your bullpen rotation. Then there is that weight reducing fat - Olestra - that Lays used to produce Wow chips! In one year the FDA called a halt, of course the customers did too when they learned that the way that they lost weight was because it induced diarrhea. Kind of like changing pitchers 3 times in an inning induces a coma.
 
Two giants sat down with their marketing stat heads and combined to produce a soda bottle product called Mazagran - coffee tasting soda - within the year the stats called sales numbers forced this Starbuck/Pepsi product off the market. And it would have been an excellent opener to start your day. I will not even comment on the attempt by Colgate - the toothpaste company - to put out a line of frozen foods. Did they clean your teeth when you were done? We will never know.
 
But more recent and perhaps more important to this audience - Playboy decided to drop nudity - where are those geniuses. Did they really believe people bought it for the articles? Well they don't now - those geniuses are back in the minor leagues and nudity is on the rise again.
 
So now we have a trend that created a trend - fifth starters were not much better - if at all - than the bullpen guys so suddenly we evolved to bullpenning. The term does not mean anything, but it is a trend, just like launch angle and increased strikeouts. Does that mean anything to the game? Well strikeout require more pitches which means the pitch count is reached earlier so we must pull the starter and bring in the reliever. More pitches, more game delays, more time before the game ends, longer games and the commissioner wants to figure out how to change this. Good luck.
 
Check out various trends with this excellent set of graphs - https://michaelbein.com/baseball.html then look at the graph on this site for length of games and runs scored - https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/1/29/7921283/baseball-game-length-visual-analysis and then we ask the question - do people want longer games with less runs scored? Do people want to see more pitchers and less runners on base?
 
As an old guy I love Mike Trout - “The two biggest stats to me are runs scored and RBI,’’ says two-time MVP Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, the game’s greatest player in the midst of his finest season. “I mean, that’s how you win games right, scoring the most runs?’’
 
Bob Nightengale has an interesting article - https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/06/20/mlb-bad-baseball-attendance-strikeouts/718162002/ - that looks at trends and solutions.
 
So, if the trends are hurting baseball, baseball might want to buck the trends, limit relief pitcher use, reduce the innings, move back the fences, reduce the innings. I do not know the answer, but as a former tax accountant I can tell you that numbers can prove many things, but they cannot make the game more enjoyable, unless you are just into APBA, Rotisserie, Fantasy, X-box, etc; nor can they change the human body. Use stats, but don't go too far I really want to see a baseball game - not relays from the bullpen.

In an era when bullpen has higher profile that starters it is surprising to see a team that prides itself on analytic decisions trade away the pitcher with the most potential and raw stuff to the American League's best team. Yes we got two prospects, but they are still raw and a gamble while Pressly is 29 and in his prime.
 
 
Of course all our pitching gurus must answer for the disparity between his 3.40 Twins ERA (not bad) and his 0.77 Astro ERA (amazing). Or his whip - 1.364 Twins and 0.60 Astros.
 
 
To quote the NYT - "Pressly rarely betrays any signs of emotional turmoil, whether it emanates from a poignant moment or from the stakes of a game heating up. He is a major component in a revamped Astros bullpen for the defending world champions, who had so many fraught moments last October that they had to turn to starting pitchers to close games." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/sports/baseball/astros-red-sox-alcs-ryan-pressly.html?emc=edit_th_181016&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=275511921016
 
 
He generated twice as much WAR in 1/2 as many games with the Astros. "Only three pitchers who threw at least 60 innings this season have had a swing-and-miss rate higher than Pressly: Craig Kimbrel of the Red Sox, Edwin Diaz of Seattle and Josh Hader of Milwaukee, three of baseball’s elite relievers."
 
 
"Pressly is the latest pitcher to experience a renaissance in Houston, which has been at the forefront of baseball’s analytics revolution. Charlie Morton has posted the two best years of his career, Gerrit Cole allowed fewer hits and struck out more than he ever has — leading baseball with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings — and Justin Verlander has rediscovered his Cy Young form at 35. All three were All-Stars this season."
 
 
Yes our FO is gaining an unearned reputation as analytics leaders, but the proof is in the way the roster is constructed and the players develop. So far not so good Now we will seek to build a weak bullpen by hitting the FA market and hoping we find a guy who can make the pen better - a guy like Ryan Pressly.

on Eduardo Escobar, the best and most important Twin in the last several years. As a latin player he can probably be effective to his late 30 s , His dugout presence is worth a majority of the money, I heard a player say, that when he was traded from the White Sox, it was the first time he had seen MLB players cry. Thats how I felt too...but on the flip side, if you can get 3 respectable prospects AND resign him, what a coup that would be huh?
 
Anyway Falvine, overspend on him bring him home and let his career end in the Cities, Agree?

Alright, as many of you know - and maybe many of you are - I'm a huge binge TV watchers. I've got access to Amazon, Hulu and Netflix and watch so many shows. I'll watch almost anything. I've watched shows like Highway to Heaven, and I've watched shows like American Horror Story. I'm currently watching old episodes of 7th Heaven, and I'm very excited for Season 8 of The Walking Dead on AMC!
 
I was late to the show, to be honest. Season 7 was the first season that I watched on AMC as it was happening. I binge-watched the first six seasons and completed them just before Season 7 began. I tell you, needing to wait a week for new episodes was incredibly difficult. Waiting a whole week between episodes? Waiting for months between seasons?
 
On Sunday night at 8:00 central time, Season 8 of The Walking Dead will debut. Of not, it is also the show's 100th episode.
 
In anticipation of the show tonight, I thought I would make eight predictions for Season 8. It should be noted that I haven't read any of the comics, so I don't know what follows that storyline or not. And, until typing this sentence, I never though to google The Walking Dead either. So, these are really just my top-of-head predictions for what should be an interesting season.
 
When we last watched an episode, King Ezekiel, Rick and Maggie were standing before the people from The Kingdom, Alexandria and the Hilltop. They were inspiring their people, sending them off to war against Negan and his many, many followers.
 
So, let's get started:
 
 
Prediction #1 - Maggie Takes Over
 
I don't know if she'll necessarily take over for Rick as the overall leader, but I think personally that she has shown to be a better, smarter leader. Rick has had his ups and downs in the leadership category over the years, and Maggie's got the intelligence and charisma to lead. Now, she is pregnant, so I don't know how that storyline will work this season. It certainly didn't set her back during the fight with Negan in the season 7 finale, but it may come into play.
 
Prediction #2 - Death In Episode 100 (or Season 8, Episode 1)
 
In the premier episode of Season 7, we saw the brutal deaths of Glen and Abraham at the hands of Negan (with the help of Lucille). I would anticipate that at least one or two of the main characters will be killed off. I don't think it'll be anyone like Rick, Carol, Daryl or Carl, but that next tier of character could be affected. Morgan finally got angry and decided that killing was OK, so he might be one to watch. Maybe someone like Tara or Rosita could also be lost. Shiva was one of the big heroes of the final Season 7 episode, so the hero tiger could play a factor in this as well.
 
Prediction #3 - Carl & Enid
 
It has to happen at some point, right? Carl and Enid have been kind of this cutesy couple of kids who might like each other, but kind of kept their distance, but also walked off in the woods together, and even ended up roller blading together. So, it's got to happen, right?
 
Prediction #4 - A Relationship for Jesus
 
We first saw Jesus in a semi light-hearted episode with Daryl and Rick in which a huge truck loaded with food ended up lost in a lake. At that point, I kind of figured his character would become prevalent. Jesus was a nice character in Season 7, but I would think it would be a bigger role in Season 8. In Season 7, he came out to Maggie as gay, which I'm sure sent shock waves to many, and likely upset some as well. I would guess that Jesus will have some sort of relationship this season. Many wonder if that will be with Daryl, who has pretty much only had platonic inclinations through the first seven seasons. Who knows? Maybe the writers will really go for the upset and hook up Jesus with Father Gabriel. Probably not.
 
Prediction #5 - The Plight of Dwight
 
So, I think that Dwight was being truthful in saying he wanted to help Rick's group against Negan, but in the final fight scene, he was still working with Negan. I am very curious how this plays out, again because I think he will want to be on the side of the good guys. In fact, I could see him being the one to take down Negan. But how will he integrate himself into Alexandria? That could be an episode or two all its own. Another question might be whether or not his wife will show up, maybe with beer and pretzels?
 
Prediction #6 - Eugene will survive, somehow
 
Eugene lied about knowing how to save the world. He is smart, and he's all about self-preservation. That's why he's all about the "I am Negan" right now. He feels comfortable right now, and he probably feels he is in a power position, and he likes it. But if we assume that "Negan" goes down, what will Eugene do to preserve himself again? Will he find a way back into the confidence of Rick and his group? My guess is Yes...
 
Prediction #7 - Rick and Michonne Break Up
 
I don't know. I just never thought they really made sense in the first place. As I watched, bringing them together seemed really forced. Plus, a break up is something that really hasn't happened on the show so far. I mean, there was Carol and her husband's issues early in Season 1, but those were resolved quickly. I mean, the Shane, Rick, Lori situation was kind of fun in Season 1 too, but a break up could create all sorts of intrigue.
 
Prediction #8 - A Few Mini-Predictions/Questions
 
OK, eight predictions for Season 8 just made sense, but I'm going to cheat a bit and throw a few quick predictions at you in #8 for your thoughts. The relationship between Daryl and Carol is interesting to me. They've had a very strong connection, strictly platonic to this point, throughout the show. If they don't have Daryl hook up with Jesus, could he and Carol come together? And, who will be the nemesis of the show is Negan isn't in power? Will Jadis take over as the real bad guy, or will there be another group? Gregory will also obviously be killed, or at least be taken out of the equation. Will it be fighting for the good side, or will it be at the hands of someone from the good side? Oceanside will have to come into play somehow, right? I still think that Tara and Cyndie will wind up together as a couple, so how will they all come together?
 
So, there you have it, Eight-ish predictions for Season 8 of The Walking Dead. Please feel free to leave your comments on any of my predictions or predictions of your own in the Comments. And then after the episode, I may be back with additional thoughts, maybe even more blogs... at least if people are interested.

When it comes to thinking of baseball talent hotbeds, Minnesota probably isn't high on the list. The state deals with cold weather and snow from the better (or worse) half of the year. Regardless of Twins Territory being a passionate grouping of Major League fans, the high school scene doesn't draw as much national attention. There are the outliers however; the Joe Mauer's, Paul Molitor's, and Logan Shore.
 
Sure, Shore isn't yet on the level of a Hall of Famer, and another guy with the potential to reach that rank. What he is however, is a kid from Coon Rapids (a northern suburb of Minneapolis), that has vaulted onto the national stage. Initially drafted by the Twins in the 29th round of the 2013 MLB draft (due to his strong commitment to the University of Florida), Shore did in fact follow through and head to Gainesville.
 
Now a Junior for the #1 ranked Gators, Shore has planted himself atop many draft boards. Through his first three starts, Shore owns a 0.43 ERA giving up just eight hits and one earned run while walking two and striking out 22 in 21.0 innings. He's got a complete game shutout under his belt, and he's been the nation's most unhittable pitcher.
 
In between dominating starts for Florida, I had the opportunity to interview Shore. We talked about his college experience, baseball, and what's to come.
 
Off The Baggy: Having been the Friday starter since almost day one with the Gators, how has your approach to the way you have pitched changed and evolved over your time at Florida?
 
Logan Shore: I think the approach I have has not changed a whole lot of freshman year to junior year. I have always had the approach of attacking hitters with my pitches and I think if anything has changed it would be that I try to pitch more aggressively now. Coach O’Sullivan does a tremendous job of teaching us how to pitch and helping us understand the mental side of pitching.
 
OTB: Tell me about your arsenal on the mound, what pitches you feel you utilize best, and what you feel most comfortable using to attack opposing hitters?
 
LS: I have a three-pitch mix. I throw a fastball, changeup and a slider. My best pitch besides my fastball is my changeup and I feel comfortable throwing that in any count.
 
OTB: Having been dominant in high school for Coon Rapids, what was the biggest change to your game pitching at the collegiate level?
 
LS: I think that the biggest difference and change from pitching at Coon Rapids High School to pitching in the SEC is that anyone in the SEC can hurt you. I have learned that I have to make quality pitches to every hitter in the lineup and learned that I need my two off-speed pitches to get people out, and not just my fastball.
 
OTB: Being drafted by the Twins out of high school and instead choosing to go to college, what do you feel has been the biggest improvement in your game since that time?
 
LS: I think that the biggest thing that I have improved on is my third pitch, which is my slider. I have always been a fastball/change-up pitcher, but utilizing my slider and truly having a three-pitch mix has been my biggest improvement. Also, having the experience of pitching on Friday nights in the SEC has given me confidence moving forward.
 
OTB: Looking ahead to the upcoming draft, what do you see as the biggest area of focus to elevate your game to the big league level.
 
LS: The biggest area of focus for me right now is to get the Gators back to Omaha and win a national championship. After coming so close in 2015 and getting a taste of what it takes to win in in the postseason, I am excited to be a part of such a special team in 2016. As far as the draft goes, I try to not think about it very much. Obviously it is there, and it will be there in June, but I feel the more I, along with the other guys on my team, are focused on winning, the better the draft process will play out for myself and everyone else.
 
OTB: Pitching in the SEC has no doubt seen you go up against some of the game’s best. Battling with 2015 top draft picks Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman is solid preparation for the pro game. What helps you face, and ultimately succeed, against hitters of their caliber?
 
LS: Facing guys like Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman is difficult. The one thing that I do to prepare to face guys of this caliber is know who they are as hitters and pitch to my strengths. I watch a lot of video and do a lot of homework before each start to learn who I am facing, and have a plan of how I want to attack each hitter. The one thing I can always control is how I prepare, and I feel that if I prepare and stay true to my routine the game will take care of itself.
 
OTB: Finally, as a hometown kid, the storybook ending would no doubt be a second selection by the Twins. Envisioning the draft experience as a whole however, what excites you most about the process this time around?
 
LS: I am excited to have an opportunity to potentially be selected by a team in the MLB Draft. It has always been a dream of mine to play professional baseball. Being drafted by the Twins would be an extra bonus on top of that. It is a long season, and a lot still to be done, but I am excited to see what happens.
 
No doubt Logan is focused in the right areas. Working to get back to Omaha, helping the Gators to a 12-1 record to start the year is a great place to be. The winning has come, and as Florida gets into SEC play, Shore will be a catalyst in helping it continue. Focus and determination are equally as important as talent, and for Shore, the trifecta is there.
 
Likely a first round selection in Major League Baseball's June Draft, Minnesota picking 15th will be clued in on the hometown talent. Regardless of where he goes, success is sure to follow Shore.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

What do the Twins do about Plouffe and Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30?
 
There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe.
 
There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs.
 
I wondered how players currently around 33 years old have aged. With the help of play index from Baseball Reference, I searched for all players that had seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2006-7 as 26 or 27 year olds. There were many others that were below that level but they were probably not in any team consideration for getting an extension.
 
Before getting to the group there is one player in the group that should be addressed. One player by age 27 was with his 5th team having been waived twice and traded for the likes of Justin Huber and Robinson Diaz. After over 1500 plate appearances through age 27 he had an OPS+ of 89. For comparison, Chris Parmelee sits at 96 as the Twins have released him. Jose Bautista's performance since age 27 has been outstanding with his opportunity in Toronto. He didn't make the group because at age 27 Pittsburgh wasn't thinking extension, they were thinking dump.
 
I would like to place a table of data below so you can see all of the players. The new blogging software makes tables very difficult. All of the players in the search can be found in this google sheet.
 
For each player, I grouped their performance in 3 season chunks using ages 25-27, 28-30 and 31-33. I did this so that any single year variation did not stand out. I also used three as it is the norm in many projection systems.
 
There were a few middle infielders in the group including Mike Aviles, Khalil Greene, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla. There were some former Twins like Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. I added Jason Bartlett, but he did not fit the first criteria since his over 100 OPS+ seasons came after 27. His decline at 31-33 is similar to several others.
 
I wondered how many of the players would play have a better OPS+ from 31-33 as well as more plate appearances in that time frame. With over 20 players in the group, no one had more plate appearances and a better OPS+ from 31-33 than they did from 25-27. No one.
 
There were two players with a better OPS+ from 31-33. Matt Holliday had an increase of 5% in OPS+ while coming to the plate 5% less than he did from ages 25-27. Shane Victorino had an OPS+ increase of 4% while injuries and platooning dropped his playing time by 17%.
 
Brain Dozier through his age 27 season sits at a career OPS+ of 98 in 1670 career plate appearances. Maybe the Twins will get lucky and he will follow a path similar to Brandon Phillips. He only dropped 1% in his age 31-33 seasons while playing time dropped by 6%. From age 28-30, he was up 13% compared to 25-27.
 
Trevor Plouffe through age 28 has an OPS+ of 99.
 
Plouffe and Dozier started at an older age. Does that make a difference? Aging curve studies suggest that it will work against them and later career starts lead to earlier declines. There are several players in the group who started at age 25 or 26. They did not age well. The two that improved debuted at 22 (Victorino) and 24 (Holliday).
 
The decline of players into their early thirties is real. Teams need to plan for it as they make any extension offer. Player with and OPS+ of 125 or better over three years have plenty of room for decline. That isn't the case for Dozier and Plouffe. If the Twins do decide to buy free agent years from either, the Twins must be certain that there is something different in Plouffe and Dozier that will keep them playing at their peak longer than anyone in this group.