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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    Actually, I always liked the thought of Gibby as a reliever. When posters were suggesting him as a nontendercandidate during his frequent struggles in three past I always thought it would be dumb to let him walk without seeing if his fastball slider could play out of the pen. When on, his slider has been literally among the best pitches in baseball in getting swinging k's. a lot like Presley's curve. Health is key of course.
  2. Jham
    Correct. I think he's seen his last days in the minors and should achieve super 2 status. Point being, he's likely to hit arbitration early which is potentially means 8 figures over his arb years. It's a consideration for sure, imo.
  3. Jham
    He'll almost certainly be a "Super Two" and eligible for arbitration after next season. which means those numbers may be even higher.
  4. Jham
    Because there's a possibility this isn't his break out season.. I'm not saying I'd bet on it. But batting titles tend to catch the eye. If he's leading the league in hitting he probably makes the All Star team. If he's winning batting titles and playing average defense, he's probably a gold glove candidate. Dozier won one. If he does this while hitting 15 HR, he's probably an MVP candidate. Agents and arbitrators notice these things. Regression is also a possibility. But if you had to bet on whether Arraez will hit Altuve HR or Sano will hit for Altuve avg, which would you bet? The HR may be more valuable than the avg. But young contact hitters adding power, even elite power happens every year. Power hitters adding elite contact is rare. It's a gamble with conflicting metrics. To boot, we have several other big investments to make which may keep us from being able to extend him if he does blow up, but may also be of greater priority in the present sense. Interesting. If it's me, I wait. We already have some fairly 1 sided extensions which are likely to cause some tension going forward.
  5. Jham
    I didn't place Lamare ahead of him... I don't expect AK to rake right away, but I'd be excited to see him or Larnach or Rooker this season. Just doubt it makes the team any better unless the plan is to run out lamare and wade every night.
  6. Jham
    Especially since AK is about 100% to start next year in AA/AAA for probably half the season anyway. Healthy, he's currently behind Buck, Rosie, Kep, Cave, Wade, Margo, Rooker, and possibly Arraez and Tortuga or maybe even Raley. He'll need to hold off Larnach as well. He projects to be good enough that options won't matter much. There's no roster reason not to bring him up. That said, he hasn't demonstrated he's good enough yet. His slow start to the season may indicate he needs time to adjust. And MLB playoffs would be a steep curve. I'm also not convinced his short compact Hrbek swing translates to elite MLB hitter these days.
  7. Jham
    Also, MLB wants the Yankees (not the Twins) to have the record. I don't discount that.
  8. Jham
    Depends who you ask and when. Most thought our window was opening last year. then last year happened. But this year with the contracts coming od the books was pointed to for years as the year. Our rotation for next year is starting to look like the AAAA carousel of old... If you wanted to bet that next year's team will win more games than this year's team, I'd take the under for pretty hard.
  9. Jham
    Happens all the time. You can't assume health, performance and market. Odo is an exact example of a guy who can take advantage of a career year. If he can't replicate this season then he'll be seen as declining. Your window to sign the big deal in MLB is a super small window. I feel bad for Polanco and Kepler who may have cost themselves the chance to ever sign a large contract. If Odo turned down 4 for 60 to accept a QO, he's crazy, imo. Although, if I'm his agent I probably have him decline both of those offers.
  10. Jham
    I like the plan but it's almost impossible to pull off. Many argue the price of starting pitching was too high at the deadline (despite Kuechel sitting forever and Stroman going for an average package). The Twins missed a huge opportunity to improve for next year AND get a stud for this year's playoffs. Unforgivable in my estimation. When the bidding heats up this winter the Twins will bow out like they always do. Perhaps smartly. But we'll be fielding a broken rotation which will cost even more to improve. At which point people will say you can't mortgage your future to acquire 1 or 2 arms. So we will perhaps smartly hold pat at next year's deadline and go into 2021 selling Larnach as the next Kepler, Kiriloff as the next Kubel and Lewis as the next Buxton. And say you don't sign big free agents when you're rebuilding. Rinse. Repeat.
  11. Jham
    I can't sleep after reading that...
  12. Jham
    Pressley feels like a troll.. but he was neither a prospect or a rental and certainly not at peak value. His peripherals screamed closer and we traded him as an underperforming overused set up guy. Diaz was a fringe prospect if a prospect at all. But possibly Davis might be the most popular player in San Fran, and he's not even there yet. I'm guessing they could trade him this winter and get more than Dyson back. I don't think prospect lists can ignore his progress. In short, he's not at peak value. Hu was traded at peak value I guess. Anyway, I think to get something back, you have to be willing to give something. But if the guys we traded at "peak value" increase their value after we trade them, I think you're missing my point. Let's hold on to the Pressleys and maybe a Davis and trade the Arcias, Jays, Stewarts, and Gordons. A reclamation project who can't be optioned has almost no value in MLB to anyone but a bottom barrel team who won't want to trade prospects.
  13. Jham
    Can we EVER trade a player, either a prospect or a rental, at their peak value? Another blue chipper with almost no value. With no options, he can't even be shuttled. If he couldn't be shuttled this year, there's no reason to think he can stick next season without clogging the shuttle. Kohl Stewart is more valuable. He's never thrown as hard as advertised. His k/9 looks ok because his whip is pedestrian. His K% never matched the hype. He's very hittable and doesn't miss enough bats. His debut was amazing. Don't know what's happened to his control since.
  14. Jham
    If Rowson gets a promotion. Parker needs a promo as well. Made the same suggestions back in June. Twins listened! http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/how-miguel-sano-can-fix-his-swing-r7991 I think Sano left a lot of homers in the bud light roof deck earlier this year. Everything he pulled had either hard top spin or snap hook curve pulling the ball foul. His majestic shot the other night tracked the foul line and stayed fair. The "weaker" axe bat grip helps on that, if you would ask any golfer on curing a snap hook.
  15. Jham
    Doesn't Kep have our only walk offs?
  16. Jham
    I know. #1stplaceproblems !
  17. Jham
    I mostly v agree. I have an irrational love of Jhoan Duran. But for the playoffs, going into Houston, with a choice of Cave, Wade, or Larnach... I think I'd roll the dice on Trevor's superior talent and CWS experience. I'm not usually a big "call up the prospects and see what we have" guy. But I think we know what we have. And I think Larnach and AK are better than Cave and better LH bats than Adrianza. Couldn't fault anyone for rather having Cave or Astudillo. Versatility means little in the playoffs.
  18. Jham
    I mean, there are 6 guys referenced in this article alone... but really, for me it just insures roster flexibility. If Kepler goes down on September 1, Cave and DeAza might get shots, but I'd hate to rule out Larnach or Kiriloff. If Polanco got hurt I'd at least want the option of rolling with Nick Gordon or even Lewis. If Graterol gets sore and Alcala is wild, I'd want to consider an arm like Duran. It's the playoffs. We need our best players out there. I get that these scenarios may be unlikely, but the IL eligible for activation is the only way to add a playoff eligible player between Sept 1 and the playoffs. potentially you could roster a player then IL them when the playoffs started, but presumably you'd rather see them debut in the regular season them the playoffs...
  19. Jham
    Forgot the original premise of the article!
  20. Jham
    I believe Tortuga and Wade are more valuable on the IL. To make the playoff roster, a player must be on the 40 man by Aug 31, OR replace someone on the IL provided that player has served the minimum time on the IL. Wade and Tortuga could both be added added to the 60 day, and then anyone in the organization could come up and be post season eligible.
  21. Jham
    How does Hildenberger get left off of these discussions every time? He may have the best chance of anyone of making an actual impact. If healthy, his change-up can get lefties. I also wouldn't mind having him work with Romo for obvious reasons. people forget how good he was in the minors and at times in the bigs. Molitor broke him. Hopefully temporarily.
  22. Jham
    He doesn't have below average stuff. He maybe lacks some control and sequencing. His change up isn't just MLB quality. When he's on its as good a pitch as we have in our organization in my opinion. Location has to be there though. And I consider control "stuff". He's gotta locate, but I wouldn't give up on him.
  23. Jham
    I would guess that the pitchers worth lower whip/bb/oslg higher ks, would also blow up less and not have to deal with inherited runners coming into middle off innings, etc. I guess you don't know unless you calculate it out.
  24. Jham
    Anyway, my point is that power is easier to add than contact. If you have great hand-eye coordination, it transfers well to hitting the ball hard and far. HR and double right on cue. Stance and swing is very reminiscent of Eduardo Escobar.
  25. Jham
    Really nice crop of rookie position players. Still think Arraez will need more pull power to keep teams honest. but dude's a magician with the bat. power is a natural add to the skill set. count me as hopeful. I believe Law had him away 19 or 20 preseason, highest of any lousy I saw.
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