Jham

My guess is that we'll trade murphy for cash. Are there any potential waiver additions the Twins should be monitoring with our no. 1 priority on the wire?

Robin ventura begs to differ.

Haven't followed at all. Looked at the box score. Hughes must have really been working on that change up again.

We cut Vogelsong? Hopefully the karma chameleon doesnt come back to bite our culture club...

Buxton debuted at 21. Berrios moved 2 levels last season. Rosario and Danny Santana moved rapidly once they got close. Not great results, granted. Others have moved slower. The prospects the organization values highly they move. MLB tryouts give us nothing if a prospect isn't ready. IE you still don't know what you have. Were they unprepared or just not that good? Alternatively, early success doesn't necessarily show you what you have. Then you dedicate spots to Aaron Hicks and Chris Parm and DanSan. And you should have a pretty good idea what you have by the time you're calling guys up. Do we gain that much insight into the future if we say, "yep, this guy has a great chance of reaching his ceiling as a bottom 10 starting catcher or 4th outfielder or 4th starter on a loosing team or 7th inning situational guy on a contender. In short, I am inclined to agree more with those who say the problem isn't an unwillingness to go young, it's that we don't have the guys to go young. I've taken a lot of criticism for suggesting that a true rebuild involves trading at least 1 of Sano or Buxton in order to accumulate more than mere filler prospects. I mean, how much does another Berrios even help us at this point? I'm not even saying that we SHOULD do that, just that realistically, that's our only chance at getting multiple potential All Stars. Obviously, Dozier couldn't get us close.

I don't want to be Debbie does Downer, but Buxton didn't improve his K rate despite his power surge last year. The HR were nice, but lack of power was a relatively small part of the problem compared to his ability to make contact. We may want a Plan B ready to play just in case he struggles. I'm not sure Kepler's return to earth gives that much more confidence... or Rosario's for that matter. Hoping for lots and lots of maturing.

The Twins won 8 spring training games in a row, signaling that we are truly post season contenders. Let's stay positive.

Wow... REALLY???!!

Twins pitchers have a way of being ineffective, then coming out with an injury, then disappearing for 60 days..

I mean, it's probably a moot point anyway. He'll be leaving for the WBC which will cost him valuable time to impress the coaching staff. It's like going in for a job interview with a company that knows you're super talented and has asked you to apply, but also knowing you don't have the experience of some of the other candidates. They all show up wearing suits, you're in a golf shirt and slacks. They have writing samples along with their resumes. The company asks you to provide a writing sample, but you don't have one. You also did an internship with them, but made a couple costly mistakes. Still, they see your promise. It's not impossible that some of the other candidates fall through and they gamble on the intern. But you've sort of put yourself behind the 8 ball. Could you blame the company for offering the job to one of the other candidates and asking you to come aboard as an apprentice? He had 14 starts last year. Learning on the job wasn't working. It may have set his development back. And again, I will caution using the same barometers of "dominance" for MLB and AAA. 9k/9ip in AAA is closer to 7k/9ip in MLB. 3bb/9ip in AAA is likely to be 5bb/9ip in the show. If Berrios is the pitcher we believe he is, he'll force his way up again, and hopefully be better prepared for success in the majors. You don't play him like he's elite just because he's the arguably the closest we've got to elite. We've been doing that. And we've burned through prospects. We've burned through service time. And perhaps we've even stunted development. I'm a big believe in Berrios talent and ability. But we have no indication that he's ready to improve on last season. I doubt he would have shown that he's dramatically better whether he played WBC or not. But if he is dramatically improved, he won't be able to show it on a daily basis. Too much of a hill to climb. But again, I'm sure he'll be back up very soon.

But you can say the same thing about the prospects. I have no problem breaking camp with an elite arm who had come up and gotten a taste the past september, but the Twins don't have that prospect. Not close. These guys haven't forced their way up or earned that sort of optimism. And throwing them to the wolves could be detrimental.

Check walk rates for Berrios and Gonsalves. Compare their histories with that of say Jose De Leon since he was almost a Twin. When you get to the MLB, you need to learn to hit spots while still being aggressive. Really hard to do. It's hard to be aggressive when the ball is flying all over the field. Your instinct will be to pick at the corners rather than to attack. Pretty soon you have a pitcher who is afraid to pitch inside, afraid to get ahead in the count. And maybe starts aiming instead of throwing, further messing with mechanics. These kids are putting great numbers in MiLB. But they're not necessarily great MiLB numbers. There are guys who put up video game stats against inferior competition. I don't see how you could watch Berrios pitch last year and think he has nothing more to work on at the AAA level. He needs to refine his control, his delivery, his confidence, pitching out of the stretch, his aggression. It was evident that he was getting through the minors on talent alone, not a major league ready pitching approach. If he tries to fix it in the Majors, he'll probably get clobbered and go back to old habits. I'm excited about Gonsalves because he looks like Andrew Miller. That said, he's probably not. But I've never seen him pitch. I do know scouts suggest he is not a blue chip guy and that he's not ready for MLB. True major league talents can go down to AAA and mow through subpar talent. Look at what Ricky Nolasco and Francisco Liriano have done in the Minors just rehabbing injuries: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3830&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3201&position=P

I don't think he's saying he's being punished or anything like that. It's just a decision that makes it more difficult to evaluate him when we already have a limited time, when his last chance to impress didn't go super well, and when he's not the next in line for the rotation. There's a difference between giving guys a shot at the rotation and holding a 12 man try out for 5 spots. There were 2 spots open, 1 if Hughes is healthy. Therefore, telling guys to be prepared to start is the proper instruction. There is waaaaay more to spring training then a few shortened outings against mixed talent. How you conduct yourself, take instruction, throw to live hitters, hold up to the training and conditioning, and how you look in your bull pens are all just as helpful to a good coaching staff. You may have to knock everyone's socks off to jump in the order, but wouldn't you still want that opportunity and do everything in your power to do so? At the same time, guys get hurt, suspended, etc. A lot of scenarios can STILL play out that would lead to the youthful rotation called for despite plan A being a mix of vets. I really don't get all the angst. Yes, the rotation was historically bad last year. But that was as much Berrios' and Duffey's responsibility as Gibson's and way more their responsibility than Hughes or Santana. I will suggest that I would pencil in Berrios, Gonsalves, and Romero into the 2019 rotation. And I will suggest that this will be the case regardless of whether I see them have MLB success this year or not. In fact, if Berrios continued to struggle, will you give up on him? I can't. Then how much more do we know? If he succeeds? I had him penciled in already. Everyone else falls into the category of remote to the point where looking at them for 2019 is foolish. If they perform well enough to stick great. If not, we weren't counting on them anyway. That's as true of Gibson Santiago and Hughes as it is May or Duffy or Mejia.

Do we really have to go through a prospect carousal to find out that all our pitching prospects aren't ready to be even average major leaguers yet? Look a at Gibby. Look at Hughes. Look at Santana. These were premium arms coming up who have been fairly pedestrian major leaguers. What are the odds that May, Berrios, Mejia, et al will be better than those guys at their peaks. Let alone early on. Hughes Gibby and Santana have had recent success. Better defense can help. A not 0-9 start will help. If we get to May or June and things are bad start looking. If May or Berrios had come up and killed it, they wouldn't be in this position. But they were called up before they were ready. Some of these kids are victims to their own prospect ratings. We treat them like potential aces for no reason. Berrios is a AAA Ace. What is that in the majors? Of course guys could develop. Happens occasionally. But it's not a great bet. A bet on Hughes or Gibby to rebound is a strong bet, imo. And we have a hedged bet if they don't bounce back. Then we can go get a hopefully more prepared prospect up. If we have play them in the show in order to see what we have, we probably have crap. Do we need a year? Can't we see what we have in the guys with more/equal talent and a actual success before we see what we have in guys who haven't succeeded and aren't blue chip prospects like Gibby and Hughes were?

A few things. 1) Phil Hughes is only 30 years old. It's not like he's 38. He was a much higher rated prospect than any of the kids, and he's actually done it at the MLB level. Compare to May at 27. 2) The season is 162 games long. Berrios, maybe even Gonsalves will get some time. The rotation we break camp with will not be the rotation we end with. 3) May is an injury risk who has a less than proven record as a starter and reliever. Berrios track record is even more sordid. 3a) Berrios' minor league numbers were dominant, but not necessarily MLB dominant. There are pitchers who cut through the minors with 10-12k/9. These guys tend to be very good major leaguers. Lots of guys put up good MLB numbers in the minors, and not surprisingly, can't replicate that level of success in the Majors. I still think Berrios will be a nice pitcher, but he's not ready yet, and confidence is very, very important. I think we May set him back last season by bringing him up before he was ready.

I dunno, just watching the replay and saw him jog out a double play ball that could have been close with hustle...

Easy there, Jham. A little loose with the history. http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/td-top-prospects-8-alex-meyer-r4448 He was lowering his release on his own following shoulder issues, then worked with the Twins on getting it higher after he got rocked. Check your facts. Still doesn't appear the Twins mismanaged Meyer. Good luck to Mr. Meyer this year.

I feel like the Twins did work with him on lowering his arm angle, but it caused inconsistency in his release and his pitches to flatten out. In short, he got hammered when lowered his arm angle, and he himself started working on getting more over the top.

Molitor likes that he's staying inside the ball and striking out 70% of the time... Either he see his half-empty/full glass is overflowing, or he's meddling with a young hitter again. Sano has always had power to all fields and the ability to use all fields. He's late on the fastball as well. Staying inside the ball will only make him later. Focus on timing and catching the ball in front where you can see the ball better and drive it, and yes, pull it. If this is a work-ethic issue, the team should have known about it. There's been grumbling for a long time. If it's the case, they need to fix it fast or trade him for pitching before his value dips.

Usually when a line looks inviting, Vegas knows something. 74 seems to invite a bet on the under. Logically, they know something. Someone must be taking the over. And the overs must be betting more than the unders, since there seems to be so many more unders.... Which scares me from the under... Cuz what do the over-betters know that make them quieter and more confident? That said, I don't think Buxton is fixed. He still strikes out like crazy. I don't think Sano is fixed and I doubt he fields well. If Kepler has a sophomore slump... I mean, he ended the season on pedestrian run. I don't know where the pitching will come from. And I don't think Molitor was ever the right guy for the job. Feels like the first year of Epstein in Chicago when they just attempted to evaluate talent and get rid of everyone. UNDER.

It's like they're saying to big erv, "let's see how good toy really are..."

He was a top 10 organizational prospect. A dropoff may have been blatant. Lots of his skill set was not. Imo, he changed his approach to put the ball on the ground and strike out less. Not a horrible idea for a guy with a high babip. But it totally cut off his aggression and his ability to drive the ball. He k'd more instead of less. Molitor already suggested he told Buxton to put the ball on the ground and let the ball get deeper. I believe a similar discussion occurred with dansan. My support, if you can even call it that, is based on his original scouting, his relative youth, and change in approach which i believe stunned hid growth.

Mod's notes aside, I don't take offense to your post. I called a progression a longshot, you called impossible. Shrug. To me, regression didn't explain the total loss of power. And that's a skill he had flashed from time to time in the minors. By some measures he has been the worst player in baseball the past two seasons. He's also played well in some stretches. Most players who put up numbers like Santana don't play. Which is I think why fans are so exasperated. Most players putting up his numbers don't have his tools or flashed glimpses the way Dan San has shown as recently as last season. It is not at all unusual for young players to take their offensive struggles into the field. It's a lot of pressure to perform. Granted, handling that pressure is his job. The only reason I say he was jerked around is because the position switches and I believe an instruction to change his hitting approach. Molitor already admitted he screwed up Buxton initially. It wasn't til Buxton ignored his coach that he won his respect. That's healthy... Anyway, I would not be surprised if Santana improves with better instruction or a new organization and has a nice career. He's still only 26.

People need to stop being so closed-minded. Is it a long shot at this point? Sure. But it's far from impossible that Santana could turn it around and have a good career. Jason Bartlett debuted at 25 and had some up and down action before becoming solid enough in the field and at the plate. Guys cry about May and Sano being "jerked around" but are quick to pile on Dan San. No one was jerked around more than Santana. Everyone was so excited to proclaim that they called his regression based on his BABIP. Everyone was so happy to be right. Don't even try to argue that there weren't a fair amount of posters who were smugly satisfied if not downright happy to see him fail. He hit 7 HR in 430 PA his rookie year. He hit 2 in the next 2 years. He hit 27 doubles in 2014. 20 the next 2 years. That's not BABIP. BABIP regresses to the mean. 7HR to 0 and 2. That's not luck. That's an utter loss of ability to drive the ball. Did the league adjust, or did the organization try to turn him into a slap hitter? I think it's the latter. Unfortunately, I think the guy who told him to slap the ball and run is still the manager. I think that may be why he has an odd willingness to stick with Santana. Guilt or stubborness. Regardless, I don't see Santana as less talented than Bartlett in the field or at the plate. And I would not be shocked if a more aggressive swing and approach at the plate could lead to more success, less pressure, and better defensive play as well. At least, I don't think anyone should be ridiculed for believing that player and tools that splashed in 2014 might still be there.

It's like Mauer is getting career advice from Adrian Peterson... Wake up, Joe. I actually would make him my everyday DH and see if that can prolong his vintage Aprils late into the season. I personally think Vargas plays a surprisingly good 1B. Not Mauer, but it's 1B and if we can get a better Mauer at the plate it's worth it. Mauer is not an everyday first baseman anymore.... For the last 3 years. FTFM.