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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    There is plenty of time for the Correa signing to produce. However, at this point IDK that Correa saves anything. 33M for 1.1 WAR is an F.
  2. Major League Ready
    Whaaaaat? This is a very deep class. What about Montgomery / Nola / Rodriquez and the two Japanese players plus Stroman also opted out and is now a FA.
  3. Major League Ready
    Gray was 28 when he was struggling in NY and he bounced back. Giolitto remains to be seen. Not my first choice but I would not be surprised to see Giolitto bounce back in a big way.
  4. Major League Ready
    Thanks. That leaves room to upgrade from Bader to Kiermaier and add a RP. However, I am not convinced they will spend $150M. wish we had a better idea how much the TV revenue they will be able to replace, especially long-term, You have to believe they would be more apt to take it in the shorts this year if these changes provide an opportunity to grow revenue long-term.
  5. Major League Ready
    Bellinger is great but here is the thing ... There are 7 really good SPs plus Ohtani and 1 (Bellinger) truly impactful hitter in this FA class. I think Bellinger lands a crazy deal. It could be one of those deals that hurts the team for several years and landing Bellinger seems even more improbable than the twins doing what it takes to land a top SP.
  6. Major League Ready
    If they can get a top SP, I believe they will move Polanco for the payroll space. I doubt they get an established SP. If they can get a good RP that fits in easy enough as would a RH OFer. However, I would be they would take a good prospect package if they need the payroll space which will be just fine by me because it means they landed a top pitcher.
  7. Major League Ready
    I meant to substitute someone else for Larnach. The reason I went with Bader is his career OPS against LHP is 823. I was pondering what to do with that final bench spot and simply forgot to make the change. What if Buxton can actually play the OF? If that happened, you could go a few different ways with that last bench spot. My dream scenario is Lee or Severino mash at AAA and get brought up before June 1. That roster looks really deep if that happens and we still should have hope Miranda finds it. I would like to see them stretch the budget a little more and get a solid LH RP and as Mike pointed out it probably makes more sense to keep Varland stretched out in AAA.
  8. Major League Ready
    1st choice Montgomery / 2nd Choice Rodriguez / 3rd Choice Sunny Gray, I would go with Kiermaier a little over budget or even shed Farmer for Kiermaier. Polanco is traded for the payroll space. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader or MAT ($7M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.08% under budget
  9. Major League Ready
    C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader or MAT ($7M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.08% under budget
  10. Major League Ready
    C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader ($7000000M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 100.00% over budget
  11. Major League Ready
    Josh Bell was a pretty significant add but he was below league average. Now that he was traded, they only project at $90M for payroll so it's all together possible they spend some money on a bat or two. If the Twins can spend $150, Cleveland should be able to spend in the neighborhood of $120M. One big bat would be pretty impactful for them.
  12. Major League Ready
    Let's just drop it. . You are speaking in vague generalities about a very specific measure. You are not willing to give an example as I have which shows your position is flawed. Show me where the assumptions used or wrong instead of just ignoring it and continuing with rhetoric And no, they don't go into a deal assuming they are getting nothing for 5 years. They assume it will decline.
  13. Major League Ready
    Now we are exactly aligned. I am one who has documented the failures of free agent pitchers but replacing Gray has to be job one and I would prefer to do that free agency. I don't want to give up our premium prospects which is what it would take in trade. Of course, there are only a handful of guys we want and lots of teams with more money wanting to sign them so there might not be a need to clear the salary but the hope they are able to fill these holes with guys that are good enough that money becomes an issue.
  14. Major League Ready
    Not that math. Did you check to see if the numbers made any sense as I did in the example I gave. You are making a claim that teams assume declining performance. I provided a reasonable model that disproves your theory that teams expect this to result in paying these players $8M per WAR. The assumptions were very straight forward. Do you disagree with the assumptions or are you just ignoring anything that does not align with your narrative? Do you think they are assuming these players are going to produce next to nothing after the half-way through the contract.
  15. Major League Ready
    Where we drifted was I don't see it as Farmer vs Polanco but the discussion followed that path. I might move Farmer too. One of them probably needs to go. I see it as Polanco in a bench role reducing his overall value vs the players that take up that slack PLUS $10.5M. If I get a decent (not plus/plus) return for Polanco. I am moving him and spending the $10.5M elsewhere, probably on pitching. However, I am under the impression that money will be an issue this year and that's an unknown. I also think he brings a decent return but I am with you in that is very hard to predict given his injury history and lack of positional flexibility.
  16. Major League Ready
    I don't know how you can make this statement without knowing the return for Polanco. I am assuming they get something pretty good. Trading established players from depth is how Tampa / Oakland and Cleveland have outperformed the Twins over the past 20 years. I think where we differ is I am putting value on the return.
  17. Major League Ready
    We are calculating the WAR per dollar based on an assumed AAV so what you are saying makes absolutely no sense. The AAV can't change. I think what you are trying to say is that the per $ reaches in this theoretical value over $8M/WAR. Did you do the math? Let's come up with a reasonable example. If a player expected to average 6 WAR gets a 12 year $320M deal, they need to produce 53 WAR over 12 years o produce 1 WAR per 6M. At 8M the need to produce 40 WAR. Let's say the player only produces as expected for 7 years. That's 42 WAR. Do you think they are assuming that player produces nothing for 5 years? It happens but that's not what they plan. If that player does something like 4 / 2.5 / 1.5 / 1 / 0 WAR in the final 5 years that equates to $6.5M per WAR. I have already said there is a willingness and an ability among the largest markets to pay more on a per WAR basis for these superstars. It's the decided advantage held by clubs with 50 or 100% more revenue than the Twins. However, the plan is not to pay $8M and it's not a success when it happens.
  18. Major League Ready
    I don't think that equates in general. Do 3 WAR guys get 25M/year or 4WAR guys get $32M? We know the 6 war guys don't get 48. I think the really premium guys do get a higher salary per projected WAR. It makes sense, the superstars are a bigger draw and they have a bigger impact. They are also signed by teams with double the revenue who of course can afford twice the amount per WAR.
  19. Major League Ready
    We just have to agree to disagree. Polanco did not outperform Farmer against LHP as I see it. Farmer's OPS against LHP was .781 and Polanco .775. Farmer's wRC+ 117 and Polanco 115. Farmer is also a much more versatile defender which is a crucial element of this role. You also completely dismiss the salary difference and return on Polanco. I will take Julien and Farmer's versatility on this specific roster plus a decent return on Polanco and never look back. We will find out what the front office thinks over the winter.
  20. Major League Ready
    You are bending this to suit your argument. When did I say all of the Free Agents need to work out or anything similar. I said that producing at the average rate for free agents is not going to help the cause much. For example, if the twins spend $40M on Gray / MAT and a $10M OF bat and produce 5 WAR, that's not a winning formula. They got 5 WAR out of Gray alone. They need tom produce 7-9 WAT to be effective which is more like 5-6M per WAR and that's consistent with what will be offered.
  21. Major League Ready
    I would add Erod / Martin / Severino and Camargo leaving two open spots. Gordon gets traded or non-tendered cut making three available spots and if necessary, we can DFA Henriquez. I also would bet Polanco gets traded. That would make 8-9 spots available. I don't see many additions. One front of the rotation SP, a back-up CFer, and possibly a RH bat. EVen if they also added a BP arm, they could add as many as 5 prospects to the 40-man if they trade Gordon and Polanco and DFA Henriguez. IDK if there will be 5 but Camargo should be on for sure. I am giving him a generous Milb deal to have catching depth.
  22. Major League Ready
    If they are willing to spend significant money in the BP, I prefer they get a LHer.
  23. Major League Ready
    Totally with you on Kepler Doc. Let me pose two questions where Polanco is concerned. Under what scenario would we rather have Polanco over the alternatives we have presently? Over Lewis at 3B. Not even close, right? SS? Of course not. Leaves us with 2B. Julien’s career OPS is 95 pts higher than Polanco. Farmer’s OPS is the exact same 95pts higher against LHP? So, is it fair to say we have better alternatives under every scenario? Obviously, depth is good but is the team better with Polanco or the $10M surplus used to sign pitching or even a RH bat in the OF? We still have not considered the return for Polanco. This is how the Rays and Guardians have stayed good. I think the probability Polanco is here on opening day is low and even lower at the deadline.
  24. Major League Ready
    I agree to a degree. You make the same point I have made in the past about the value per WAR being far different for small and large markets. Therefore, how can $8M per WAR be the universal value? However, I don't agree that team's are content to get average production. Producing average production for free agency is not an effective way to build a team even for the largest markets and it's a recipe for failure for mid and small market teams. Average production in free agency does not produce a contender just as average success in any other aspect of roster construction won't produce a contender. Team's don't plan for the average or accept the average because do so is a failure.
  25. Major League Ready
    You hit this one on the head. Baseball's economic models and financial practices are quite different than other businesses / industries. However, there is one common thread, spending more than you bring in results in a loss.
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