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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Bellinger was not a one year deal. It was a 3-year deal. You also assume he would have come here instead of the Cubs which is very likely a false assumption. If your logic is he opts out if things go well, that kind of logic is how people responsible for a $300M P&L get fired. That is absolute incompetence in the real world. Now after dozens of posts on they should just do it this year, you are changing the entire premise to that it does not have to be a 1 year thing now that it is evident it's not feasible to be a one-year thing. It's also not a good idea to negate the potential of signing our young core to extensions. Don't BS me about not having the energy to debate this after a spending hours upon hours over the course of a couple hundred posts ranting about spending. You don't want to debate it because you know you can't reasonably illustrate how the spending could have been a one-year thing. Our differing goals have absolutely nothing to do with the viability of containing the spending to one year.
  2. Major League Ready
    It would be an equally big deal if the arm slot gave him better command.
  3. Major League Ready
    What free agent of impact could they have signed that only impacted this year? Those players get 3 or more years and the real impact players are 5+ years. They are going to be at roughly $127M next year with departures, salary increases, and arbitration increases. They would have been over $150M next year as well if they did not spend one dime replacing any of the departures or filling any new holes. How could this have been contained to this year? We should also consider if it's a good idea for a below average revenue team to spend $60M or more on 2 players or 85M on 3 players with Lopez or $100M with Buxton. We should ask if there is a single example of a below average revenue team being successful while spending $100M on 4 players. If you can't come up with a single example, you might have your answer as to why they are not following the strategy you endorse. Do you have an example? Of course, you know that I have the data for every 90 win team going back 25 years and there is not a single example. The far better strategy would be to use the money to extend a couple of our young players and that's not really not possible while pursuing the practices you insist upon.
  4. Major League Ready
    Very few people follow baseball the way you do. I have a VERY hard time believing you don't have a good idea of where the Twins profitability ranks. If you don't understand their relative profitability why would you complain? How do you have a basis to judge? I do believe you don't care. You simply don't want to acknowledge the truth. The complaint looks pretty silly if you acknowledge they are one of the lowest ranking teams in terms of profitability. We see the relative merit of players backed up by very good evidence. NEVER does someone complain about spending and then provide any proof as to the twins relative spending. I can't imagine how many posts you have made complaining. How about just one with hard numbers that show the Twins don't spend commensurate with revenue.
  5. Major League Ready
    Lots of people in baseball are making a lot of money regardless of performance. Several teams made much more while sucking. Prince Fileder made almost twice that much and produce negative WAR Ellsbury, Bumgarner, Hosmer and several others were so bad the teams paid them to quit or play elsewhere. The fair question is how does that $114M over 10 years compare to the other owners in the league. I mean that's what we are really talking about here. Scherzer, Verlander and many others will make this much over a 3 year period, not 10 so the profit number needs context. The fair questions is how greedy are Twins relatively speaking. Can you be objective enough to put this in perspective by actually responding how this level of profit compares to other teams over that period? Give us rank even if it’s a guess. 1-30 how does the $114M compares to others. It’s in the bottom 7 for certain and probably ranks around 25th overall, right. Give us a number.
  6. Major League Ready
    Wouldn't you say this is a deep team?
  7. Major League Ready
    Insure like it did for the Padres or Mets or like it insured we would get a player that produced far more than 1.1 WAR like it did with Carlos Correa or Christian Vasquez or Anthony Rendon or Carlos Rodon, etc. We got 2.8 WAR total from our 3 highest paid players ($58M) last year so it's far from "insured". Our six highest WAR position players made a total of roughly $14M and produced 14.9 WAR
  8. Major League Ready
    If you bother to look at my statement, I said it was repeatedly ignored entirely. Article after article and poster after poster did not acknowledge it. What you think is the appropriate level has absolutely nothing to do with what I said. I was validating the concept of what is required to make up for revenue loss not trying to prove if it was more devastating to an individual. The math does not change if it's a corporation. I will use payroll directly. If revenue is $300M and payroll is $150M payroll is 50% of revenue. If revenue goes down by $50M, a $25M reduction in payroll does not cover the lost revenue. The fact that payroll was 50% of revenue has nothing to do with the calculation of what's required to compensate for the loss. This is about as simplistic as finance metric get. I at no point suggested the Twins could not survive. I said that people that insisted the payroll only need to be cut by half of the revenue lost simply did not understand the math. You are arguing based on a belief. You are welcome to that belief. I might have a different belief but that is not the content of my post. My post suggests there has been perpetual misrepresentations and flawed financial constructs. You want to focus on those beliefs instead of the financial constructs that were the subject of the post.
  9. Major League Ready
    I did not know this history. Thanks to those of you who took the time to present an informed point of view. The informed and misconstrued rants featuring inaccuracies and misrepresentation have gotten out of hand.
  10. Major League Ready
    From Steve Adams chat today ... Hey who would you rather have Taylor or Margot.? Steve Adams 1:05 They're reasonably comparable players as RHH outfielders who can handle all three spots at an above-average to plus level. Taylor has more speed and power but twice as many strikeouts. Margot has better bat-to-ball skills and more OBP. I assume Taylor's going to cost more than the year and $4MM for which the Twins acquired Margot, so I'd probably lean toward him on price alone. I'd probably lean that way anyhow, honestly, as the enormous K% and miserable OBP give MAT a lower floor.
  11. Major League Ready
    At this point I am hoping a couple of the role-playing veterans get pushed out by the all-star break. That would be great news for the team if Martin/Lee/Miranda, etc were so good that they forced their way onto to the team like Lewis, Julien and Wallner did last year.
  12. Major League Ready
    They did phase Gallo out just very slowly.
  13. Major League Ready
    That's a stretch but even if it has merit, it would have made more sense to make a similar trade last year at the deadline. I doubt they would have put that kind of value in a Mahle type SP but at least we would have filled the biggest hole on this year's team instead of investing in a mediocre team that was injury depleted.
  14. Major League Ready
    Agree. This year's team might be even more worthy but the cost will be high because their hole is probably going to be a playoff level starter. Similar situation to Texas last year.
  15. Major League Ready
    The deal wasn't bad based on Mahle's talent. It was bad because they gave up substantial future value for present value when the team was unworthy of investment. In other words, the investment had no value at substantial cost.
  16. Major League Ready
    You make a good point Mike. IDK how much injury played a role in his performance the last couple years. Perhaps they were convinced Margot is simply healthier than he has been. We just don't know until we see for ourselves over the next couple months. It's also always a bit of a guessing game with this type of player. MAT was terrible offensively 2018-21, a little better in 2022 and then had a career year last year. Duval was mediocre in 2021, bad in 2022 and then good last year. I don't pretend to have any answers on Margot, just theories.
  17. Major League Ready
    I absolutely agree that it's great to have a surplus to trade but we traded away to invest in a team that proved to be unworthy of such investment. The national media loves Steer and some are very high on CVES. MLB network listed Steer as the 10th best OFer in MLB. He would not start over Wallner in the OF against RHP. He would play a Castro type role. The two of them would offer tremendous flexibility. Steer’s career OPS against LHP is .937 with a wRC+ of 148. His combined OPS was .820 last year. He is a far better player than Farmer for less money and another 5 years of control. Farmer is a good fit. Steer is a great fit and a better player. We just see this one differently. CES is still unproven. Again, I am listening to some of the national guys who think he is going to be a beast. He started out pretty mediocre but he was raking the last six weeks (100 Abs) of the season. His wRC+ was 155. He ranked 21st in MLB right behind Bryce harper for that period. I would much rather have that potential for the next 6 years even though he is still unproven.
  18. Major League Ready
    Pretty hard to follow that logic when they did spend the $11M when they signed Sanatana and kept Farmer. It's not a projection, it already happened, correct? The fact that you ignored the far more impactful aspects of my post (Steer/CES/SGL/Povich) and interpreted the $11M in the worst possible light would suggest you were focus on finding something to complain about. Do you or do you not think the team would have been better with Steer/CES and SGL and Povich as SP depth regardless even if they pocketed the $11M?
  19. Major League Ready
    That is the nature of these trades. It's short-term assets / production traded for long-term assets. That's generally not a good asset management practice and historically, winning mid and small market teams are built on trading for prospects, not trading them away. Just look at the Twins recent history. They traded two rentals to teams that accomplished nothing for Duran and Ryan. We traded for Mahle and Jorge Lopez who are not only gone but produced nothing. We also acquired Fulmer at that deadline. We gave away Cano who ended up being an all-star, 6 years each of Steer and CES who look to be very good MLB players, Sawyer Gibson-Long who did not look that great in Milb but was very good (2.70 ERA) in his initials MLB exposure. Cade Poviich is also said to be looking ready to contribute for the Orioles. We would be a considerably better team had the FO not invested in a team that simply was not a contender regardless of the fact they were in 1st place. Had they not bought at the 22 deadline. Steer would replace farmer and CES replaces Sanatana. Steer is a better bat and plays INF and OF. CES has way more ceiling as a hitter. Povich and SGL would be starting depth. Plus, we would have $11M to invest elsewhere.
  20. Major League Ready
    This is very good news. His ceiling just went up. However, it appears from the graph that the arm slot has reduced the break in his off-speed stuff. The fastball looks too straight. Hopefully, this is just a SSS thing.
  21. Major League Ready
    If they were not comfortable with Martin yet, it was a pretty sure thing that they would not sign an OFer that could not cover CF. It also made a lot of sense that they focused on splits against LH pitching. Margot has better splits than anyone you mentioned. This is their career OBP and wRC+. MAT 310 / 99 Duvall 301 / 100 Margot 341 / 109.
  22. Major League Ready
    Also a good point. You guys are on a roll. My guess is we see a lot of guys in that role over the course of the season. I hope Buxton is so healthy we don't see him in that role as much as we expect.
  23. Major League Ready
    Reasonable point but Castro did have an 801 OPS against RHP last year. They could also give Correa, Lewis, Julian, Kirilloff or Wallner a day off from the field and have them DH while one of the four you mentioned plays in the field.
  24. Major League Ready
    My guess is he is insistent upon 2 years and the Twins don't want to roster him for two years. I doubt it has anything to do with the AAV he is asking. They might also be serious about cutting down the Ks.
  25. Major League Ready
    Exactly what I thought upon looking over his splits. I hope they got an interesting prospect because this does not move the needle much.
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