Major League Ready

I doubt it's motivation. The young man plays hard. I think the league just figured out he can't hit a breaking ball and they are going to kill him with breaking balls until he improves. Sano suffers from the same problem.

He was paid a very large sum of money because of the increased promise of performance. If we are making an analogy this is parallel to normal jobs, correct? Signing bonuses have been common in the industry I work and I know that more is expected out of the employees hired with a substantial signing bonus. Obviously, it's not $6M but the concept is the same. This is also why I compared Adrianza. Nobody would be defending him if he were demoted or even cut. When does the special treatment for the promise of performance end. He has sucked. You want respect, earn it. This is not high school or the minor leagues. At the MLB level he has been no better than Adrianza. Their real mistake was keeping him at the ML level for as long as they did while he was failing. Had they not given him special treatment, it would not have come down to a couple weeks in Sept making the difference in service time.

We can debate the relative success or failure of this strategy in general but that is a different argument. Your position is these high profile players are essential to getting difference makers. Then you made a specific reference / example. Using a 2 WAR player @ $25M as a shining example of how to put together a winner lacks any form of objectivity and that's putting it nicely. You come back and site Odorizzi who had 2.6 WAR at under $8M as an example of the problem. Let's just say we max the payroll as you suggest. I will take Odorizzi at 8M and add a Charlie Morton or equivalent at 14M and a BP arm for $3M instead or Arietta. You will have a big name that used to be good but I prefer the 5.8 WAR plus whatever I get from the $3M RP instead of a big name. Substitute Jed Lowry from the past two years if you like. The point being players who produce 1 WAR per $12.5M are a detriment to an average revenue team constructing a winner. Let's look at the premise you have been promoting of late which is that it's a good idea to do this before the team is ready to compete. Let's go back and look at free agent SPs and see what they offered after their first year. The truly elite (Scherzer / Greinke / Kershaw) who signed while still in there prime have been good bets. If you can get one of them to come to MN, great! One notch below elite and you don't want to give away that first year. There just are not that many so it's a SSS but that notch below elite collectively produced an average of 1.27 WAR/season if you exclude the 1st season. Once again history does not support your position unless you want to restrict your options to the truly elite. Those players are not coming here especially while we are still losing and there were no such players this year so that option is not available this year and the next group even slightly off the truly elite has proven to be a terrible strategy if you are not in a position to win immediately. David Price WAR / 4.5 / 1.6 / 2.7 Johnny Cueto WAR 5.5 / 1.2 / 0.2 Jordan Zimmerman WAR 1.3 / 1 / 0.9 Jeff Samardzjia WAR / 2.6 / 3.8 / -0.2 Jon Lester WAR 5.0 / 4.3 / 2.7 / 1.7 / ? / ? James Shields WAR 1.0 / -1.1 / -.3 / .8 Anibal Sanchez WAR 6 / 3.2 / 1 / 0.8 / 0.4 CJ Wilson WAR 2.2 / 3.2 / 0.7 / 1.5 / 0

Good point. I don't think Sano had earned his place either. Should Buxton be pi$$#@ at the Twins? Buxton Career OPS 672 Career wRC+ 76 Adrianza Career OPS 658 Career wRC+ 78 MLB is not like a normal job but you can't help but compare the scenarios to a "real world" job. However, if any of us got a $6M bonus and then performed to this level, how do you think we would be received if we complained about how we were treated?

If he produces an identical WAR value this year the cost will be $3.73M per 1 WAR. That is far better than any of the highly touted free agents. You still might be right but he is a good value.

Are you really making the argument Arietta was a difference maker? He was a 2.0 WAR player. I think you are going way out of your way to try to find things that support your argument. Odorizzi who people talked about cutting this year had 2.6 WAR for less than half the money. Actually, the example you are using is a better example of failure than success. Players producing 1 WAR for $12.5M is self-defeating. If the Twins spent an additional $50M it would yield 4 wins assuming replacement level players would occupy their position which is not likely. Therefore, you are talking a net 2-3 wins. Arietta used to be great. He produced 7.3 WAR in 2015. He fell off to 3.8 in 2016 and 2.4 to in 2017 and finally 2.0 in 2018. Is this really the model you want our team to follow. How about the other two top SPs (Darvish/Cobb) that signed last year. Were they keys to success. You keep harping on this strategy while completely ignoring what actually happened.

Mike, I think they need to sign a couple RPs but that has little to do with the numbers I ran given 5 year deals for RPs is extremely unusual. The numbers illustrate how ineffective FA is in general but that does not mean we should not use that avenue to add. It just means we have to particularly smart about it. Plus, let's face it, we are in a bad position. The guys we had at AAA were not good for the most part last year so the need to pursue other avenues is elevated. The RP market is exceptionally deep. That should make it more viable to use free agency effectively. Of course, RPs are notoriously inconsistent so I am at a loss where a suggestion of free agent RPs is concerned.

OK, I ran the numbers for free agents signing 5+ year deals from 2012-2014. These are the most recent years in which 5 year deals would have run to completion. Here is what I found. Cano and Grienke stood out by a wide margin. Of course, Cano’s deal has 5 years left. As of right now he produced an average of 4.14 WAR just like Greinke but for $10M less per season. The remaining 10 players only averaged 1.41 WAR. In 53 cumulative seasons, the entire group only managed 17 seasons above 2 WAR while producing 36 season at 2 WAR or less. The group produced 7 seasons at or above 4 WAR in 64 cumulative seasons. Greinke and Cano produced 5 of the 7. The other 10 players managed two 4 WAR season between them.

I guess we can just look at WAR for all players on Fangraphs.to get a general sense of the relative scarcity of (let's say) 2 WAR players. There were 130 position players and 78 pitchers with a WAR of 2.0 or greater In 2018. In 2017, there were 134 position players and 80 pitchers. Of course, a lot of players don't accumulate WAR because of losing a partial season to injury. I will leave it to everyone's own opinion as to just how scare is a 2 WAR player. I am going to look into the average WAR for FAs that sign 5+ year contracts. I did that on a previous thread for 2016-18 and you would have to conclude FA is a bad model for building a winner. I am going to look back at 2014, 13, and 12 so that the entire term will have run on most of the contracts. It will be interesting to see how often the free agents that are so often positioned here actually deliver.

What percentage of time do you think the 5 year type free agents break 2 WAR? By percentage, I mean if 4 players sign 5 year deals this year, how many season out of their combined 20 seasons will exceed 2 WAR? Does anyone know the answer? Is there an article somewhere?

They required nothing of Mauer so the standard has changed. It's clearly is a double standard if Sano is the only player the team requires to follow an off-season plan. However, the teams follows reasonable practices in identify the players in need and acts accordingly, it's a change in policy/practice which is a very good idea. The Miami Heat developed stringent conditioning practices for their entire roster.

They will probably put Schoop at 3B if Sano is out for a few games. Petit is their AAA depth. If you are looking for a starting caliber 3B just in case does not get it together, that will have to be a mid-season move because there just are not enough roster spots unless you follow Riverbrians plan to have an exceptionally flexible roster.

So offer it now with a signing bonus given by all appearances payroll will be significantly lower this year. They have one other proven SP (Berrios) signed for next year.

If they give Gibson a 3 year extension, he will be the same age Greinke is now at the conclusion at the contract. I hope they extend him but I would not object to trading him if they got a good return.

A "like" is not adequate for this post. The best measure of success would be if we minimized the need to sign expensive FAs or trade away top prospects. The improvements to core capabilities and practices described here are the key to sustained success. Well done!

2022 according to Baseball Reference. Buxton got pushed back a year when they kept him in the minors last year.

True. He could also have a career year. I don't have a problem with them trading him now. I actually think Mike is right they don't have a legit shot but I don't see the need to totally sell out 2019 for a marginal increase in return on Gibson. I also don't think there are any FAs available at the positions we need to fill that would make even close to the type of difference necessary to give them a realistic shot. The only players that would elevate this roster to the point of a realistic shot are be trade candidates that would have an extremely high cost in terms of prospects (IE Realmuto). Even with Realmuto, Syndergaard, and a better 2B, they would still be long-shots to win a playoff series unless most of the other uncertainties pan out nicely. Let's keep in mind we have a 4-5 year window. Only Sano & Rosario are FAs in 2022. Everyone else is 2023. The teams that have been the most successful at rebuilding over the past decade are the teams that actually committed to a rebuild. The last regime refused to commit and we follow plans destined to top out at 85-88 wins instead of doing what is necessary to actually build a team capable of more than winning a weak division.

Would you agree that we have a shot at 2019 but we have great uncertainty surrounding many players? Is it a good idea in general to make a decision (pick a direction) with a great deal of uncertainty. What is the benefit of deciding now? How much better Is the return on Gibson going to be now than at the deadline. If the difference is small, why pick a direction when you will have much better information in July?

Let's take a moment to look back. What percentage of these signings have been the huge difference maker you insist are essential to building a winner. 2018 Eric Hosmer 8/144 – played in a 157 games and produced -.1 WAR. Yu Darvish 6/126/AAV 25 – Obviously added nothing to 2018. Hard to say what he adds to 2019 but it is very unusual for SP to produce at their norm after a year off from injury. Next year he will be 33 ½ so there is a good chance this contract could produce very little for a 6 year period and be detrimental to the Twins extending their core or adding key FAs when they are actually contending. Martinez 5/120 – Great so far. Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 – Produced 2 WAR @12.5M/1 WAR. Odorizzi produced 2.6 WAR @ 2.46M/WAR. Arietta would have at best made a negligible difference being added to the rotation. Cain – 5/80M - Been great so far and exactly the kind of guy we should add. Carlos Santana / Wade Davis & Alex Cobb – All serviceable but not much above replacement level. 2017 The top 3 in AAV were Cespedes / Chapman and Fowler. Cespedes produced 2/5 WAR for 2017-18 combined. Chapman produced 3.5 WAR so he has been good, not great. Fowler was no better than what we already have in 2017 and terrible (below replacement) this year. Jansen was great in 2017 and had .4 WAR in 2018. Melancon produced a total of .7 WAR in 2 tears. Justin Turner at only 13M AAV has been fantastic. Ian Desmond has been equally horrible. 2016 – A little more meaningful because we see the impact over 3 years. David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). Odorizzi level in terms of WAR the last 2 years. Over $10M/1 WAR and will be 34 at the end of next year. Odds are he had 1 season where he was a difference maker at a cost of $200M. That won’t hurt Boston given they have almost $200M more in revenue but this type of deal is a detriment to the Twins sustaining success. Zack Greinke – Pretty much the same story as price but he has been a little better. One year where he was a real difference maker. The last 3 years are likely a very poor value and the odds are he is not a difference maker going forward. The next 5 in AAV are Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija. Davis is below replacement level. Hayward is a 4th outfielder. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has been a disaster ever since. Zimmerman produced 3.2 WAR over 3 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018. That’s a lot of failure. Failure you can’t jettison when they are long-term contracts. The premise that the answer to sustained success is long-term FA deals is not consistent with history. This does not mean we should never do them but to beat the drum constantly that the Twins failure is a product of an unwillingness to sign long-term deals suggests you have not stopped to consider the relative success of this strategy in recent years. This entire group collectively have produced very few seasons where they were difference makers.

Good call, I forgot about the additional revenue share. Any idea what the annul will be?

You failed to quote where I started with "it is no doubt an estimate" and the part where I used "big if" in parenthesis to not only highlight it was an estimate when laying out the calculation if we use their estimates. It would be silly to take these estimates as gospel. I am not sure what to call the suggestion I am taking these numbers as gospel when I emphasized (twice) that such an estimate was just just that, an estimate. BTW ... A billionaire list in some rag is hardly the same thing as something published by Forbes.

No doubt ... it's an estimate. The context of my post was that someone suggested we have "no idea" and I don't thinks Forbes and Statistica publish without reasonably valid data. They estimated Twins 2017 net profit at $23M with a $109M payroll on $261M in revenue which would suggest other operating expenses were $129M. If this is accurate (big if) they would need to generate $300M in revenue to support a $150M payroll with a $21M profit. Your $140-150 seems about right but they are going to need to be established contenders before they have any shot at generating $300M

You make a good point in that it's not as simple as just better discipline and pitch recognition is a skill with limitations regardless of approach. Rosario seems to get a pass with most people. I don't think it's pitch recognition because it does not look like he is fooled and he swings at pitches that are not even remotely close. Quite often It looks like he has no approach, no plan whatsoever, just swing at whatever is thrown. He was the worst hitter on the team the 2nd half and it looked to me like the pitchers had adapted and used his lack of discipline to turn him into a very poor hitter. I hope he proves me completely wrong but I don't have nearly the confidence in him as most do here. I would trade him if someone was willing to give value commensurate with his 1st half performance.

How about if a hole bunch of the guys currently on the roster take better ABs and the OBP goes up. There is no excuse for the complete lack of discipline Rosario often displays. I don't remember the exact ranking but he was in the top 10 worst in MLB for swinging outside the zone. There were short bursts where the team overall managed to show some disciplined hitting and it looked like a different team.

I would hope they would shift direction / strategy when the variables or conditions that influence those strategies change. The Whitesox / Orioles / and Mariners are good recent examples and the Braves shifted directions not that long ago and are a shining example of how to do it right. Just because we think Gibson should have or would have brought back a "bluechip" prospect does not mean one was offered. They also may be hoping the team would come together the 2nd half of 18 and they did not want to give up players pivotal to 19. The only players they traded that were signed or where they had an option for 19 was Pressly and Rodney. Rodney was easily replaceable. While Pressly had value for 19, RPs are much easier to acquire than SPs. A 3rd possibility was they hoped to extend him.