Major League Ready

Most of us didn't see Duffey as a serious prospect either. Count me amongst those who don't see it with Dean but I hope to be wrong again.

Mike, do you have a link or do you need to be an insider to see this chat session?

My bad, I completely missed the inclusion of Will Smith. This is a good trade for next year but likely a very bad trade long-term. It’s short sighted trading all of those assets. Trade one of Plouffe / Milone for Smith or an equivalent RP and the other for a corner OFer. Make Murphy the everyday catcher and let Pinto back him up. Trade Suzuki for a dozen balls. Use the savings to get Oday or Soria. The bullpen is waaaaay better, the OF problem addressed and you still have Kepler. IMO, that is a much better end result that will have much longer impact and potentially a huge impact if Kepler turns out as we hope. There also might be a chance to sign Austin Jackson to a 1 year deal with the savings if he feels he could rebuild his value. Now I retain even more assets and this could work out great if he has a good year. The Twins might get a compensation pick.

I would guess LuCroy is 1 WAR than Murphy and you want to give up Plouffe, Suzuki, Milone, and Kepler? HORRIBLE idea. Trade Plouffe for a corner OF or stud reliever and it would have equal or more impact than trading for LuCroy and you still have Milone and 6 years of Max Kepler. Then, spend the money saved on LuCroy for a stud reliever or corner OF depending on which one you get by trading Plouffe.

I would think Kepler still starts at AAA. This provides the Twins an opportunity to give Arcia one more shot! Don't get me wrong. He was been terrible last year but there is too much potential there to just flush him for nothing.

I would be very happy getting Norris for Plouffe but I would not touch Shields. The last thing we need is an even more expensive SP in decline phase.

You know better than to use that small of a sample size. Look at the last 5 years and you know it is no even remotely close to last year.

Of course someone gives up pick for the vast majority of FAs who get a QO. I thought that went without saying. I should have said don't like to give up and I bet the majority of the picks given up are later than 17.

I was trying to be politically correct when I said "we all" but there would be plenty who would complain. Take a look at the MLB top 100. There are several top 20 prospects who were drafted in the teens or later. Buxton is #1, #2 and #3 were picked 18th and 16th respectively. #4 was an international signing and #5 was taken 16th. #6 was 39th. #7 was picked 152nd an#8 was an international signing. That's why most teams don't give up these picks. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=prospects

The majority of picks at 17 are not that great but if this pick happens to turn into Hamels or Halliday we would all crucify the FO.

Yes, Hicks should start the season in center. Bring Buxton and Kepler up as soon as they are ready and let their play dictate the outfield of the future. I think Stringerbell is right that the most logical solution is to eventually trade Hicks. He has more value as a CF and therefore is a likely trade candidate. I also just don't see playing Kepler at 1B if his athleticism is as good as reported. Plus, it is probable Mauer is at 1B for 3 more years.

I hope another team believes he will return to form next year and takes him off our hands this off-season. I don't care if we get a dozen balls in return. May needs to be in the rotation. If May gets the last spot in the rotation, Milone, Duffey, and Berrios contribute based on injury. Nobody seems to care about Milone but he let the least amount of runs cross the plate per 9 and that is a pretty important stat. One of Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana have to go. In that order for my liking.

Count me onboard with this thinking. The ideal scenario is one of them gets traded once Kepler is up an establishes he can play at the ML level. That also gives us some time to see if Rosario can demonstrate some plate discipline. Scouts already have his MO and the pitchers are adjusting. If he continues with the current approach, nobody is going to throw him strikes. He has great hands but you can't do much when you are constantly 0-2 or 1-2 and fighting of breaking pitches off the plate of in the dirt. Hicks keeps getting better as a LH hitter and he is already darn good as a RH hitter. He has a high OBP and offers great flexibility in the lineup against LH pitching. However, Hicks has greater value as a CF and would bring a greater return. I think this one does not play out until the deadline of even the 2016 off-season unless Ryan gets an offer he can't refuse. I look forward to watching this play out.

One possible scenario is that they want the option to bring him up next year as soon as the super 2 date passes. Hicks is more valuable as a CFer so the FO could very ell have determined the best way to maximize their assets would be to eventually trade Hicks. This plan would provide the opportunity to evaluate Kepler for a period of time prior to the deadline and then deal Hicks if they are satisfied with Kepler as his replacement. Hicks might even be traded in the off-season if the deal is right. What if they do have the chance to get the right catcher? Buxton, Rosario and Kepler could be our OF for the next several years. The point being, you don’t bring Kepler up to play 1st base or sit on the bench if you see the potential for one of these scenarios or some other similar scenario.

Agreed. I would add a couple points. 1) Mauer's $23M/yr is not going away so it is pointless to justify the retention of Plouffe because he makes considerably less that Mauer. 2) The argument that Plouffe and Mauer can split time at 1B/DH make sense to me. His 740 OPS can be replaced for less at either position. 3) I don't think I would bet on Plouffe having a better year than Mauer offensively next year. Certainly not enough better that I would forgo the return Plouffe provides. 4) I would trade him for the best package I can get regardless of position but a Catcher would be great if that worked out. Invest the $saved in signing Gerardo Parra as a DH/back-up outfielder. The team just improved by 100 pts OPS and is also improved in the future by whatever assets are acquired by trading him.

The team making the playoffs, especially the wild card has very little to do with how I would measure success for this season. After four consecutive 90 loss seasons, success in my opinion is measured in the development of players capable of producing a winner. If Sano had gotten a chance and demonstrated he can play 3B. I would say he would be the most important “success” this year. Hicks and Rosario are items 2 & 3 making this season a success even if Hicks is traded for a SS or C. His improvement will have netted that important asset. I would add Trevor May to the success list at the ML level. Gibson also looks to be part of the solution as opposed to part of the problem. I also see this year as a success because some important assets have performed well in the minors. At the top of that list is Kepler, Berrios, and perhaps Polanco. We need top of the rotation guys in the worst way and Berrios has made progress toward being a top of the rotation SP. Kepler’s athleticism and plate discipline make me inclined to believe he can be an elite player at the ML level. This will be even more important if Hicks is moved for a C or SS. Regardless, the advancement of these four young players is very important to the team’s future and Dozier's continued good play has to be considered part of the success of this season. Things that fall into the category of not contributing to building a contender were the acquisition of Ervin Santana and the extension of Phil Hughes. Ricky Nolasco and his contract is a bigger problem than the other two unless he amazes us and comes back to perform like a mid-rotation SP. I would sure like to have that 38M/yr to invest in a front of the rotation SP in 2017 which is the first season I think they are legit contenders. Take what’s left over and the $10M to Hunter and invest that in a SS or Catcher. I sure hope they can dump at least one of Nolasco, Santana, or Hughes. Nolasco would be my first choice to go. At least then you have room for May, Berrios and Gibson. There are also a number of prospects that had poor seasons. At the top of that list is Arcia and the bullpen arms that were looking like set-up men and closers of the future. Those bullpen guys were looking like a major strength going forward. Now, not so much. Let’s hope a couple of them bounce back in 2016.

Well Mike, this is a distinct possibility. However, I have interviewed literally thousands of employees in a consulting capacity and I have a pretty good sense of when a guy is regurgitating the company line. I have heard Smalley and others several times on this topic and I am inclined to believe Smalley's comments are genuine. I also listen to Grant Paulson's show and he commented that Buxton was called up prematurely. He is a Buxton fan and relatively neutral party. The fact that Smalley was called up quickly only strengthens the validity of his comments if they were in fact genuine. Personally, I have been hoping Arcia gets his act together a little so that they could start next year with Hicks, Rosario and Arcia. Buxton and Kepler to AAA. At some point Kepler gets his shot. Buxton takes over in CF and Hicks and Arcia make great platoon / 4th outfielder. If Kepler meets expectations you trade one of Hicks, Arcia or Rosario. I would love to see it pan out with Buxton in CF, Kepler in LF and Arcia in RF. That allows you to get a great return on Hicks if he does not regress because his value is higher as a CF. Both Kepler and Rosario could play CF if Buxton is injured or gets a day off. Lots of flexibility in this plan. Maybe you keep all five if Sano can handle 3rd and Plouffe is traded. Arcia gets lots of ABs at DH and you have lots of flexibility in the OF. Plus, with a little luck, we would have surplus ML talent to be traded for a ML ready catcher. Still have to figure out a plan at SS. Let's hope Polanco can handle it. That would give us one heck of a lineup. Get Berrios up here at some point next year and we have a good chance of watching a contending team for 10 years.

Mike, do you really think Buxton is better than Hicks right now? Buxton is not ready for ML pitching right now. So, the first priority should be his development which is probably best served at AAA for now. It could be argued he had not really mastered AA. Smalley was on 1500 talking the need for young players to master each level before moving up. I am inclined to listen to the guys that have been there and done that. In addition, this is a business. So, to say service clock should not matter is not very realistic. A big part of the constant complaining here is that many fans just refuse to acknowledge and/or accept this is a business.

No way on May. Get Nolasco healthy and deal him next year at the deadline even if you have to eat half of his salary. Then, bring up Berrios and go with Santana, Gibson, May, Hughes, Berrios. That's ice starting rotation. Mlone is there for depth or trade bait. If Meyer gets it together, then you have a nice problem and ammo to get a catcher if that problem has not been solved. Not now on Hicks. Let's see where next year. Is value is appreciating every day. This is better addressed during the off-season or next year at the deadline. Polanco all depends on if he can play SS. If so, he should be the last prospect we deal. If not, he is an ideal candidate to be part of a trade for an established Catcher or high ceiling prospect.

By taking the20M we would have paid him an investing it plus a little more to get a top of the rotation FA. So, we would have this FA pitcher plus all of the guys we would give up to get Tulo. Short term, Tulo would no doubt improve the team but even with him this team is not ready to contend for real. I would bet the cumulative war of the players we give up would be considerable higher than Tulo alone in 2018-2021. So its short term thinking. Fans want instant gratification but the odds are this is a bad trade for the final half of the assumed contract. Of course, that right when the Twins core has matured and ready to win (like KC). It is also the point in time where Mauer, Santana, and Nolasco will be off the books leaving room to lock down Sano and Buxton and probably add a premier FA to fill whatever happens to be our greatest need at that time if we don't screw up the management of payroll.

Mike, I think you hit on the key here. Is Polanco a SS or 2B? They might be keeping him at SS to promote a higher trade value. If the FO thinks he is best suited at 2B then they should try to trade him for a catching prospect. Another possibility and I am sure some will strongly disagree but I would not be opposed to selling high on Dozier if someone was willing to pay big, including a catcher. Then, bring up Polanco. Send Santana down and let Escobar play SS. That way you see if you can fix Santana while seeing if Escobar can perform like he did last year with regular playing time. Either way you hopefully fix catcher long-term.

The people who evaluate farms systems are squarely in agreement with "some posters" here. Regardless of industry opinion, I think it is a safe bet to say some posters find it more fun to be optimistic where you seem to thrive on pointing out every possible point of negativity.

One of the best posts I have seen here in a while.

Are you not the same guy always complaining that they don't move players up fast enough? Of course, they could play him out of position for 3-4 years. That would pretty much assure he never becomes a legit starting SS. Obviously that plan is also flawed unless Buxton does not pan out. Many fans live in the right now which initiates all of the complaining. There were lots of people freaking out after the first week. Maybe that's why the F/O has not embraced a full rebuild mode. Fans cheered when they signed Santana. I hated it. They have three guys signed long-term leaving 2 spots for several guys that should be better than all of them with the exception of perhaps Hughes. That move (at least the initial signing) made sense because the contract covered his prime years and the price was right.

This drives me crazy. It seems very reasonable to expect a professional athlete to stay in shape. The off-season should have been a time to get in even better shape. (ie. Shabazz Muhammad & Anthony Bennett) This is especially true for players like Vargas and Sano who have body types that it is not too hard to pack on 30 extra lbs.