Major League Ready

I am not really sure, Mike. BP arms are so unpredictable. The question I am raising is basically … Are high dollar free agent RPs a good utilization of financial resources? Would we be better off spending our available free agent dollars on position players or is there a category of SPs that have proven to effective spending. This is by no means a suggestion we not spend for BP arms. I just does not look like the correlation between salary and WAR is very strong. I wish I had the data available to the FO. It would be a lot easier to recognize which practices (player profiles) have produced the best results. We are seeing changes to spending strategy across the league. There are teams recognizing they have built rosters that maximized their spending and resulted in good teams but not serious contenders and they are reconstructing those rosters. I am suggesting we not follow a path that leads to the same result … good but no real chance of becoming a serious contender.

Why are the only options the very highest AAV RPs or AAA players? The whole point of presenting the facts is to illustrate the very highest paid RPs have not been the most effective. Should the goal not be to follow the most effective practices for a mid market team?

Listed below is the fWAR for the top 8 RPs in terms of AAV. Jansen 2017 ------- 3.2 Jansen 2018 -------- .4 Melancon 2017 ----- .4 Melancon 2018 ----- .3 W. Davis 2018 ----- .9 Chapman 2017 --- 1.6 Chapman 2017 --- 1.9 Britton 2017 ------ .6 Britton 2017 ------ .1 A Miller 2017 ----- 2.4 A Miller 2017 ----- .4 Robertson 2016 -- .9 Robertson 2016 -- 1.9 Robertson 2016 -- 1.5 Nicasio 2017 ----- 1.5 Nicasio 2017 ----- .8 Average WAR ---- 1.175 1 of 16 seasons over 2.5 WAR 2 of 16 seasons over 2.0 WAR 2 of 16 seasons over 2.0 WAR 5 of 16 seasons over 1.5 WAR Listed below is the fWAR for this years top free agent RPs in terms of AAV. Britton ---- 0.6 / 0.1 Robertson - 1.9 / 1.5 Miller ------ 2.4 / 0.4 Familia ---- 0.3 / 1.7 Joe Kelly -- 0.7 / 0.7 Herrera -- 0.1 / 0.4 Average WAR for the past two years = .9 1 of 12 seasons with a WAR of 2+ Listed below are the 2018 top RPs in terms of fWAR 1 - Blake Treinen 2 - Edwin Diaz 3 - Josh Hader 4 - Jose Leclerc 5 - Craig Stammen 6 - Felipe Vazquez 7 - Adam Ottavino 8 - Jose Alvarado 9 - Will Smith 10 - Aroldis Chapman 11 - Taylor Rogers 12 - Ryan Pressly 13 - Joakim Soria 14 - Jeremy Jeffress 15 - Dellin Betances 16 - Jeurys Familia 17 - Kirby Yates 18 - Chad Green 19 - Tony Watson 20 - Mychal Givens

I dislike bullpen games. It's just too taxing on the BP unless the other 4 SPs provide consistent starts. Give Mejia a shot. I just don't see him as a RP and it makes no sense to cut him. I would rather give him a shot for a couple months. If he continues to exit early, use the "stacker "approach with whichever AAA guy looks ready. That would be a good way to break guys in the type of guys we have at AAA right now.

Great idea but it seems like the often bantered Brian Dunsing fantasy trade. Can you name a couple trades where established SPs that are/were better than Berrios were traded for numbers of mediocre prospects? I suppose if they have 2 years of control or less that might be possible but that's NOT a good fit at this point. I am not sure I can think of one with even 2 years of control. KC traded the rookie of the year (future AS) and Odorizzi for 1 1/2 years of Shields. I just don't think you can get that type of SP without giving up a high ceiling prospect. Our pitching depth has none of those. If we had such a prospect, the last thing I would want to do right now is trade them.

Three reasons. 1) MLB Players are habitual creatures and most players prefer to stay if it does not cost them financially. 2) Eliminates the risk associated with injury or poor performance. 3) He just witnessed Dozier's value plummet.

Where to start …. Let’s start with one year bargains. When you started beating that drum I pointed out that only one of the players (Lynn) was a 1 year deal. Morrison and Rodney had team option attached which is even better than a two year deal. You ignored these facts and continue to beat this drum. You keep insisting we should sign FA pitchers now because then we will have them when we need them. I listed all of the free agents SPs listed over the past several years. The FACT is that after the 1st year they have produced an average of 1.3 WAR. Collectively, in 22 season they have produced 3 seasons over 3WAR after the 1stt season while producing 16 seasons of 1.7 or less and 13 seasons of 1WAR or less. How long are going to lean on the Yehlich deal. We would all love to make those deals every day. They are very uncommon. How many deals were made hoping for this result where the player traded for broke out vs performed at his current level and how many busted afterward. There are lots of examples of SPs who were traded that busted. It may have been injury related but the result is still the same. Teams don’t trade break out candidates and we can’t hope for other teams to do the stupid stuff the Marlins have done. That’s why so many teams are interested in Kepler. It would appear they think he is going to break out.

If he produces an identical WAR value this year the cost will be $3.73M per 1 WAR. That is far better than any of the highly touted free agents. You still might be right but he is a good value.

They will probably put Schoop at 3B if Sano is out for a few games. Petit is their AAA depth. If you are looking for a starting caliber 3B just in case does not get it together, that will have to be a mid-season move because there just are not enough roster spots unless you follow Riverbrians plan to have an exceptionally flexible roster.

So offer it now with a signing bonus given by all appearances payroll will be significantly lower this year. They have one other proven SP (Berrios) signed for next year.

If they give Gibson a 3 year extension, he will be the same age Greinke is now at the conclusion at the contract. I hope they extend him but I would not object to trading him if they got a good return.

A "like" is not adequate for this post. The best measure of success would be if we minimized the need to sign expensive FAs or trade away top prospects. The improvements to core capabilities and practices described here are the key to sustained success. Well done!

2022 according to Baseball Reference. Buxton got pushed back a year when they kept him in the minors last year.

True. He could also have a career year. I don't have a problem with them trading him now. I actually think Mike is right they don't have a legit shot but I don't see the need to totally sell out 2019 for a marginal increase in return on Gibson. I also don't think there are any FAs available at the positions we need to fill that would make even close to the type of difference necessary to give them a realistic shot. The only players that would elevate this roster to the point of a realistic shot are be trade candidates that would have an extremely high cost in terms of prospects (IE Realmuto). Even with Realmuto, Syndergaard, and a better 2B, they would still be long-shots to win a playoff series unless most of the other uncertainties pan out nicely. Let's keep in mind we have a 4-5 year window. Only Sano & Rosario are FAs in 2022. Everyone else is 2023. The teams that have been the most successful at rebuilding over the past decade are the teams that actually committed to a rebuild. The last regime refused to commit and we follow plans destined to top out at 85-88 wins instead of doing what is necessary to actually build a team capable of more than winning a weak division.

Would you agree that we have a shot at 2019 but we have great uncertainty surrounding many players? Is it a good idea in general to make a decision (pick a direction) with a great deal of uncertainty. What is the benefit of deciding now? How much better Is the return on Gibson going to be now than at the deadline. If the difference is small, why pick a direction when you will have much better information in July?

Let's take a moment to look back. What percentage of these signings have been the huge difference maker you insist are essential to building a winner. 2018 Eric Hosmer 8/144 – played in a 157 games and produced -.1 WAR. Yu Darvish 6/126/AAV 25 – Obviously added nothing to 2018. Hard to say what he adds to 2019 but it is very unusual for SP to produce at their norm after a year off from injury. Next year he will be 33 ½ so there is a good chance this contract could produce very little for a 6 year period and be detrimental to the Twins extending their core or adding key FAs when they are actually contending. Martinez 5/120 – Great so far. Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 – Produced 2 WAR @12.5M/1 WAR. Odorizzi produced 2.6 WAR @ 2.46M/WAR. Arietta would have at best made a negligible difference being added to the rotation. Cain – 5/80M - Been great so far and exactly the kind of guy we should add. Carlos Santana / Wade Davis & Alex Cobb – All serviceable but not much above replacement level. 2017 The top 3 in AAV were Cespedes / Chapman and Fowler. Cespedes produced 2/5 WAR for 2017-18 combined. Chapman produced 3.5 WAR so he has been good, not great. Fowler was no better than what we already have in 2017 and terrible (below replacement) this year. Jansen was great in 2017 and had .4 WAR in 2018. Melancon produced a total of .7 WAR in 2 tears. Justin Turner at only 13M AAV has been fantastic. Ian Desmond has been equally horrible. 2016 – A little more meaningful because we see the impact over 3 years. David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). Odorizzi level in terms of WAR the last 2 years. Over $10M/1 WAR and will be 34 at the end of next year. Odds are he had 1 season where he was a difference maker at a cost of $200M. That won’t hurt Boston given they have almost $200M more in revenue but this type of deal is a detriment to the Twins sustaining success. Zack Greinke – Pretty much the same story as price but he has been a little better. One year where he was a real difference maker. The last 3 years are likely a very poor value and the odds are he is not a difference maker going forward. The next 5 in AAV are Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija. Davis is below replacement level. Hayward is a 4th outfielder. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has been a disaster ever since. Zimmerman produced 3.2 WAR over 3 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018. That’s a lot of failure. Failure you can’t jettison when they are long-term contracts. The premise that the answer to sustained success is long-term FA deals is not consistent with history. This does not mean we should never do them but to beat the drum constantly that the Twins failure is a product of an unwillingness to sign long-term deals suggests you have not stopped to consider the relative success of this strategy in recent years. This entire group collectively have produced very few seasons where they were difference makers.

You make a good point in that it's not as simple as just better discipline and pitch recognition is a skill with limitations regardless of approach. Rosario seems to get a pass with most people. I don't think it's pitch recognition because it does not look like he is fooled and he swings at pitches that are not even remotely close. Quite often It looks like he has no approach, no plan whatsoever, just swing at whatever is thrown. He was the worst hitter on the team the 2nd half and it looked to me like the pitchers had adapted and used his lack of discipline to turn him into a very poor hitter. I hope he proves me completely wrong but I don't have nearly the confidence in him as most do here. I would trade him if someone was willing to give value commensurate with his 1st half performance.

How about if a hole bunch of the guys currently on the roster take better ABs and the OBP goes up. There is no excuse for the complete lack of discipline Rosario often displays. I don't remember the exact ranking but he was in the top 10 worst in MLB for swinging outside the zone. There were short bursts where the team overall managed to show some disciplined hitting and it looked like a different team.

I would hope they would shift direction / strategy when the variables or conditions that influence those strategies change. The Whitesox / Orioles / and Mariners are good recent examples and the Braves shifted directions not that long ago and are a shining example of how to do it right. Just because we think Gibson should have or would have brought back a "bluechip" prospect does not mean one was offered. They also may be hoping the team would come together the 2nd half of 18 and they did not want to give up players pivotal to 19. The only players they traded that were signed or where they had an option for 19 was Pressly and Rodney. Rodney was easily replaceable. While Pressly had value for 19, RPs are much easier to acquire than SPs. A 3rd possibility was they hoped to extend him.

Mike, They signed 4 players that made the 25 man roster. Reed / Rodney / Morrison & Lynn. Reed was a 2 year deal. Morrison and Rodney had a 2nd year team option. Lynn was one year. Is it really fair to characterize Morrison and Rodney as 1 year deals when they had a team option. Would you agree that 1 year with a 2nd year option is a much more advantageous position to be in for the team? While I suppose you could make a case you are technically accurate, your portrayal of the situation is misleading.

Baseball is loaded with predictive analysis, is it not? FIP, defensive metrics in general, WAR, etc are all predictive in nature. It's interesting that this board screamed for an analytics driven approach and no that such an approach would likely prove the odds to be long, you want an intuitive approach which is what we had previously. Actually, the approach could be to measure the probability of each individual factor required for the teach to achieve success. IE What is the projected WAR for Buxton / Sano and the entire rest of the team. I would agree if you were to say that model requires a lot of assumption. We could instead look at a much larger set of data while using a somewhat more intuitive approach. We could ask what are the odds of building a BP given the state of ours. What does history suggest. What are the odds of Buxton or Sano producing at the level needed for the Twins to contend. The Twins analytics team could put together a very credible estimate based on the history of all the similar players who failed or succeeded in the past. What are the Odds we get 1st half Rosario and the 64 wRC+ second half Rosario and so on. Revenue is a tough one. I have read several articles trying to get a grip on revenue drivers and the KPIs are unclear and inconsistent. The Twins had stated in the past that they base payroll on previous year's revenue which would make the revenue estimates a moot point and I can see the wisdom in this approach based on the difficulty to forecast revenue. We can also look at history to understand the impact on profits when a team invests and does not perform.In 2017, MIami / Detroit / and Baltimore all invested and did not perform. Collectively, they lost $125M. The top 7 in terms of profit were all contenders who spent within their budget even though they obviously had room to spend significantly more. The Cub / Phillies / Red Sox / Giants / Astros / Dodgers and Brewers combined for $539M in profit for an average of $77M per team. The Twins made $23M by the way in a year they went to the playoffs. Kind of puts the relative focus on profits in perspective. If it were our money or we were bankers or Venture Capitalists we would would demand hard analytics for revenue, margins, capital requirements, competitive analysis and risk assessment. 10s of millions are not invested based on intuition.

I was quite specific the inability was related to the relative value placed on financial performance. Complete disregard for the financial implications does not mean someone is incapable of understanding. Are you going to tell me the difference in desire to spend between fans and the FO does not have a very high correlation to the difference in weight put on profitability between the two groups. I agree that some TDers have put forth reasonable plans. What the he## does that have to do with the this specific conversation which is why some people can't understand why the Twins would not spend every available payroll dollar. Where your new argument is concerned, don't tell me I don't understand the risk / investment side of things. If you understand how this is done in a business environment, show us the actual calculation of the cumulative risk associated with Buxton / Sano / The BP even Rosario who sucked the 2nd half, the bottom 3 rotation spots, injury, probability of success with the FAs that would be essential to putting together a contender. Then, tell me the odds of success are good. Show me the financial projections. There has been absolutely zero data / content presented that measured risk / return or the probability that any given plan would result in X number of wins. What has been presented here is ideas that would no doubt make the twins better. I have not seen a single projection of wins or the revenue implications or risk assessment.

The expectation and frustration you describe is completely reasonable and I join you in that frustration. We could have had Nola and Benintendi. We have not made any trades like Cleveland did to put together their staff. We have sucked in general at developing ML talent and it would appear we were significantly behind in developing an analytics team. This frustration explains why people want the team to go all in. It does not explain why many posters are at a loss as to why the FO would not just take a leap of faith. I responded to a very specific exasperation voiced here by many that the team refuses to just go all-in, especially in terms of payroll. That disconnect exists because fans place zero value on financial performance and the primary goal of any business is financial performance. It's that simple. From a business point of view it makes far more sense to at least get a couple months into next season before making a big trade. It probably makes more sense in terms of building a winner. There are many variables beyond Buxton/Sano but even if it were just those two, it might make the most sense to trade for a replacement for one of them. It certainly does not make sense to do that now.

I am going to provide a theory as to why this alludes many. There is no disrespect intended here. It’s purely an observation. Fans could care less about profitability and profitability is right at the top of the list of a GM's responsibilities. Many even think the business that is the Minnesota Twins owes it to the fans to disregard profitability. This is going to create a disconnect. It's also not a unique concept to pro sports. I doubt any of us cares if Cub Foods or the dealership where we buy our car or any other business maintains a healthy profit. As a matter of fact, virtually nobody would feel bad if the car dealer added up their costs incorrectly and sold them a car a cost. The common position here is “what if Sano and Buxton are good” It also possible we could construct a good BP and get a middle infielder and maybe add some SP. Why wouldn’t the Twins max payroll and perhaps trade away some prospects too? Why take a chance we could miss an opportunity? The answer is because if they fail, they will recover only a small portion of the incremental $40-50 or even $60M many here expect them to spend. (See Baltimore / Texas / Detroit) I don’t think anyone here is so naïve as to think the odds of success are high. Therefore, if you say this position eludes you, you are saying you can’t understand why the Twins would not invest 10s or millions with a low probability of success. I would absolutely love it if the Twins did not care about profitability but the reasons they don’t manage the business certainly don’t elude me.

Tampa's revenue has increased steadily for the past 15-20 years. However, making it to the world series in 2008 had minimal impact on revenue. Seems to me they understand how to run their business just fine. https://www.statista.com/statistics/196686/revenue-of-the-tampa-bay-rays-since-2006/